The angel is in the details.

One of the advantages of science...

We are coming up with new strategies to fight Covid. While the science helps, this disease has an immense learning curve, and we're still learning.

"As cases of COVID-19 surge to record levels across the United States, national public health advisors Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx have pushed for an approach that emphasizes intensive social distancing and widespread mask use, and many states are striving to slow the virus’s spread without resorting to complete lockdowns. That strategy helped some states mitigate their outbreaks through the summer. But with winter and major holidays coming, will such measures be enough?

The paper's senior author Harish Nair, a professor of global health at the University of Edinburgh, choosing which interventions to implement “would depend on where in the trajectory of the epidemic [a locale is]. For example, if your R is 1.5, you can use a combination of less severe measures—whereas if it [is] over 2, you would need to go into a lockdown.” That is because so long as R stays above 1, cases will continue to increase.

" A forecasting team from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) findings suggest that universal mask use (defined as 95 percent of people wearing face coverings in public), combined with states shutting down if they exceed eight deaths per day per million people, “could be sufficient to ameliorate the worst effects of epidemic resurgences in many states.”

This is why the insane War of Science is killing lots and lots of people. The North Dakota infection rate is 6 times the national average. Mortality doubled in a month, and they are still doing nothing. The experts warned us about this, and now we will get to see it.

Edit: we are coming up with new strategies, I thought that SciAm article was going to talk about it in more detail. I am curious how NYs school opening for young kids will play out, but there are dozens of things being tried, with various levels of success or failure. More on this later, it's something I've been waiting for, but prob not today.




https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-models-show-how-to-avoid-future-lockdowns/

 

Do you know what Fauci means specifically by the term “intensive social distancing”?