The electorate going forward

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Guno, Aug 15, 2017.

  1. Guno

    Guno Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Last edited: Aug 15, 2017
  2. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wonder if any non-white nations will mirror this trend.
     
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  3. tkolter

    tkolter Well-Known Member

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    Yes but will they vote in numbers enough to matter even with the majority position in key Electoral College States?
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2017
  4. Brewskier

    Brewskier Well-Known Member

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    "Idiocracy", coming soon.
     
  5. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    Does anybody think there will be free elections in 2040 let alone 2060?
     
  6. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Probably no greater than the number who won't even be living long enough to care.
     
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  7. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    The problem with these projections is that they are based on past performance. That means they do not take into account current trends.

    The current trend is that liberals have hijacked the democratic party and more and more voters are becoming repulsed by liberals. This trend will continue unless moderate liberals can get their fringe groups under control.

    These fringe groups are making liberals look bad. Most people may like what liberals stand for but most people do not like all the violence and protesting.
     
  8. Pycckia

    Pycckia Well-Known Member

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    People care about their children.
     
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Indeed, demographics is destiny.

    I am thinking that it is very likely that California will be redistricted again after the 2020 census and will have 54 CDs instead of 53. Washington is still growing as well, so 13 EV instead of 12 is absolutely within the realm. 17 years ago, no one was talking about Colorado as a possible battleground state. Now, since 2008, it is a blue state. Ditto for Virginia.

    As the snowbelt states empty out more and more, likely causing them to become more and more Conservative, then the real action will be in the sunbelt states. Would not surprise me if Florida picks up yet another elector after 2020 and Texas picks up 2. Georgia could move up to 17 electors and North Carolina up to 16. But Ohio will likely lose an elector, also Pennyslvania, also both Minnesota and Wisconsin. If trends in Michigan continue, it will probably remain steady. Arizona is growing as well, so a major electoral shift may indeed be in the works as time progresses. I can see MN/WI shifting with IA into the red column, OH as well, but VA staying permanently in the blue column and NC and GA coming along. The year when the GOP loses Texas, the year when a viable blue majority is there, is the year where the GOP may be shut out of presidential elections for a good long time. 2020 will not be that year. But 2024 may be.
     
  10. Brewskier

    Brewskier Well-Known Member

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    That's funny that you continue making predictions after your disastrous 2016 performance :)
     
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  11. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ok, you found something that means nothing. According to 2016 NYT exit polls, Trump gained (over 2012) 1% among whites, 7% among blacks, 8% among hispanics, 11% among Asians, and 1% among other races.

    The obvious problem with such political predictions by race is that it assumes that the way that different races vote will not change over time. We've already seen this before. In 2012 Mitt Romney, who did horribly with Latinos, was twice as likely to receive a vote from a third generation Latino as from a Latino immigrant. This bore true in 2016. Trump pulled a third of the Latino vote, but did markedly better among Latinos born in the U.S. and Latinos who speak English. As they assimilate, they are increasingly less and less likely to vote Democrat.

    This isn't anything new. Immigrants have historically favored one party over the other, where one party was viewed as more immigrant friendly. Exactly which party is viewed that way has shifted back and forth over time, but the voting blocs formed by immigrant communities collapse as they assimilate and no longer see themselves as immigrant communities.
     
  12. Spooky

    Spooky Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You all are forgetting the key factor.

    Our system switches over time. When one party holds power for too long people revert to the other side, it always happens.

    Race doesn't factor into that.

    Since the 22nd amendment no party has held the WH for more than 3 terms.

    This is a constant.
     
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  13. SkullKrusher

    SkullKrusher Banned

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    no, this projection is unlikely, because California will either have seceded from the USA by 2040 or will have had the earthquake that removes the state into the ocean.
    Florida will be completely underwater by 2060
    Some cities with high % of whacko Left marxists may be sold to China to pay off some of the national debt, such as New York and Seattle, and LA.
    Other states may form an Southeastern block of Nationalist Secessionist with fortifications, walls and minefields to keep the 3rd world from overrunning their states,
    Far northern states of North Dakota and Montana join Canada
     
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2017
  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Those are some astonishing predictions!

    I bet you are just a blast at parties, eh??

    :)
     

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