The GA-06 special race: election returns and statistics thread

First source: The Green Papers

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Log/17Q2#2549

And the direct links for results as they come in:

AP

GA SOS

Politico will likely also put up a results thread as the day goes on.

Seeing that polling has consistently shown a close race, most people are not expecting a quick call this evening.

Wait and see.

-Stat

 

I live in the district. I'm voting Ossoff. Let's see if he stays a blue dog or if he turns into a lap dog when he gets to DC.

 

The polls have been predicting a democrat landslide just as they did for hillary

But they can't be wrong ALL the time

 

Needless to say this is yet another of your baseless allegations that you cannot substantiate.

 

All the polls put the democrat solidly ahead and have for many weeks

I can't even guess why the liberal news media would hide that fact from you

 

Moving the goalposts again?

First it was a "landslide" and now "All the polls put the democrat solidly ahead"?

Last set of polls I looked at showed it as neck and neck. Ossoff was slightly ahead in early voting but without a strong minority vote turnout he won't win.

So once again we compare reality to the canards of your beloved FauxNoise.

 

If ossoff wins by one point your side will call it the biggest victory since Kennedy-Nixon in 1960

He has been up by as much as 10 points and that would certainly be a landslide in most people's opinion

But now you want to lowball expectations just in case the russians have hacked the election computers I suppose

 

Nope!

Just last November this seat went Republican by a massive 23% advantage. Just making it competitive would be an achievement in a deep red state like GA.

I have no idea if the polls are going to be hacked or not but I do know that the result will very much depend upon minority turnout. If they don't make it to the polls then Ossoff can't win.

So far all attempts to flip seats in deep red states have failed and I have no expectations that this will be any different. Overcoming the gerrymandering is pretty much impossible.

 

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2017/05/09/georgia-6th-san-francisco-thanks-ossoff-in-attack-ad/

Is there really any doubt what Ossoff is all about?

This is a test election to see if the Democrats can fool enough voters with a, "cut wasteful spending," mantra.

 

Uhm, no. The polls have not been predicting a Democratic landslide. Most of them have been within 3-4 points either way, which is inside the standard MoE.

I just understand your reasoning to troll a thread that is simply getting the election night links out there....

Did you not even read the OP?

 

If it is merely a 50-50 tie with one person winning just a couple 100 more votes than the other, than that STILL means that this CD has drifted 23 full points to the LEFT since 2016. That is a mathematical FACT. If Handel wins by +3, then the CD has still swung 20 points to the LEFT, since Price won it by +23 in 2016, just about 7 months ago. Either way, polling is showing a huge shift in the electorate and now is comes down to GOTV, which is the bare-knuckles of any close race.

 

I have seen not one single poll showing Ossoff up by +10

Feel free to provide the link.

But he has had +7 in two or three polls. However, +7 and +10 are not the same thing.

 

The lib pollsters may be hedging their bets now on election day but for weeks they were giddy over the big lead ossoff had in the polls

 

Arent they?

You were just boasting about a 23 point swing toward the democrats since november

So if ossoff wins by one point the anti trump lib media will call that a 24 point landslide

 

Actually you are mistaking all polls with just the ones democrats talked about and early polls. The overall polls at the end showed Hillary's popular vote lead plummeting to 3% at the last days of the election with her eventually getting 2% with 3 million more votes. It also showed her electoral lead plummeting from well over 320 to just 272-268 with most of the swing states on her side quickly getting narrower and narrower and becoming outright tossups. Its not that people listened to the polls too much, its that they didn't listen to the all polls and only looked at the positive ones. Romney made the same mistake and he also lost.

 

Thats a common technique by the politically motivated liberal pollsters

They pad the numbers early to encourage the left and discourage the conservatives but then return to reality near the end for the sake of their reputation

 

How do you know they padded the numbers? Making up numbers is completely fraudulent and so you are basically claiming that every polling organization including ones that lean right were committing fraud trying to make Hillary look good? Fox News showed Hillary with a 7% and 5% lead in October. That dropped to a 1% and 4% lead in November.

Here you can see the polling sources by accuracy and their bias:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Here you can see the latest polls in the 2016 election:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/e...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

From what I was seeing in the news more leaks were coming out showing corruption from Hillary and Comey re-opened the investigation because of hidden Hillary emails on Anthony Wiener's computer.

 

There were pro democrat polling groups and pro republican pollsters

but all worked for the swamp creatures in washington so none were pro trump

Its possible that they exist in the artificial bubble of Washington-New York and simply did not know where to find average Americans who were going to vote for trump

 

Did you not even read the polls?



It'll be interesting to see if Dems can still buy a seat.

 

The media - even Fox - call this the most expensive house race in history.

Which may be true but they all fail to point out that most of the spending is by Ossoff using out-of-state donations.

This is certainly the most expensive democrat attempt to win a seat in history

 

Part of the problem with polls is that people are scared to admit they support Trump. With the number of hysterical libs out there, who can blame 'em?

 

Trump Slams Dem Ossoff, Boosts Handel, as Voters Head to the Polls

Polls: Handel With Late Momentum Inches Slightly Ahead of Ossoff

Trafalgar: Handel Takes Late Lead

 

Problem with polls is the sampling methods they use. I can run the exact same poll and come with a different answer every time by just changing the weighting. Sample sizes and turnout has to match for a pol to be worthwhile. If you want a more liberal result just poll a few more minorities or weight the poll toward a turnout of a younger group of voters or more college degree holders. No one notices generally, but I remember a presidential poll trying to portray Texas as a swing state last fall that weighted the poll to where the legal Hispanic turnout would have had to be in the high 90% to achieve. It did not pass the smell test so I dug into the methodology and historical turnout data and sure enough it was a BS poll designed to get donors to dump cash and make the hillary drones feel good.

I do find it amusing though that both parties are dumping this kind of cash into this election while pretending it is some sort of harbinger for 2018

 

Excuse me, but those are not the polls for the current RUNOFF race. Those were the polls for the JUNGLE RACE.

You do understand the difference, right?

THESE are the polls for the RUNOFF race, which is being held today:

 

No. I stated that if it is even a tie, then that is a mathematically provable swing of 23 points to the left.
It's real simple: Price won this CD in 2016 by +23, so a tie would mean a shift of 23 points.
That has NOTHING to do with current polling margins. It compares one cycle to the next and is commonly called the "swing".

Please pay attention and maybe, just maybe, you may learn something instead of simply trolling anything you don't like.