Trump's followers would have us believe that Trump defied all the national polls and won the election. They could not be more wrong. In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College. In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states. American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong." No, they were not! National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result. One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too." Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new. The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points." During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
You are conveniently ignoring the word FINAL. As the election drew closer those polls came closer and closer to an actual result. A few months out however, those polls were showing Hillary with a huge lead. For that matter, polls always draw closer as the election nears. As the elections draw nearer, the polling organizations do not want to be proven wrong and their results magically start getting closer to reality......undoubtedly so they can make the claim that "the final" poll was close to actuality. Let me let you in on a little secret.......like virtually every other presidential election, it will be close either way. A 52-48 split is about as big of a variance as you will ever see, and even that split is highly unlikely in this particular election. Polls that tell you otherwise, are not grounded in reality.
Trump did win the election. The EC is how the president is determined. Conway knew that. Hilary didn't.
Apparently, perhaps because of my political beliefs, my posting on this forum is extremely low priority. It is time consuming to access my threads, send a response, and reply to a post such as this one. Thus I am limited in my ability to respond to forum members. Please accept my apologies. That said, this poster overlooked an entire paragraph in the OP. Poster's explanation didn't make a lot of sense. The polls always try to be as accurate as they can be regardless of the time frame. "Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new."
I can't wait until January 21, 2021 when the polls will tell us who the next president will be in 2024.
As it pertains to my analysis. There is more to say, much more. I said in the OP that voters in small states have more of a say as to who our next President will be as compared to voters in large states. Now I will prove that statement. Obviously, the less voters an elector represents the more impact voters have in the selection of our President. One on one would be the ideal, but that would defeat the purpose of the Electoral College. California has a population of 39.5 million people and has 55 electors to the Electoral College. Montana has a population of 906,500 people and has three electors to the Electoral College. It is one of seven rural states that have three electors. When one does the math, in California one elector represents 718 voters. In Montana one elector represents 302 voters. The conclusion based entirely on math, the non-college educated farmer in Montana has 2.38 times the impact of a college educated teacher in California. And we know that -- to our everlasting regret -- the farmer and many like him in the rural counties of America chose Trump.
Trump is behind the 78-year old man in the basement, Joe Biden, in every major national poll. His overall approval rating ranges between 38 to 42%, and that won't get him elected. Trump's approval rating on our national crisis, the pandemic, is even lower, ranging between 34 to 36%, and that won't get him elected. The election is less than 90 days away, and Trump is desperate. There is no James Comey around this time.
No one on this forum can ever again claim that the national polls were wrong in 2016, and that Trump beat the polls. That is a Trump myth, and it is simply not true as the analysis shows, an analysis which has gone unchallenged. In the first place, the national polls gauge the popular vote, not the Electoral College. In the second place, Trump lost the popular vote by three million. Trump won in the Electoral College because voters in small states (in terms of population) have a larger say in the Presidential election than the voters in large states. American University Professor Allan Lichtman who became famous for accurately predicting the winner of every Presidential election since 1984 -- including 2016 -- has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump. But the historian got it wrong. The Times writes, "Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong." No, they were not! National polls only measure the popular vote. Clinton did, in fact, win the national popular vote by 2.1 points. The average of the 13 final national polls had Clinton ahead by 3.1 points, which was only a point off the actual result. One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right | TheHill The election was won by less than 80,000 votes. Axios reports that Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by 0.2, 0.7 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively — and by 10,704, 46,765 and 22,177 votes. Those three wins gave him 46 electoral votes; if Clinton had done one point better in each state, she'd have won the electoral vote, too." Nearly everyone today has forgotten the effect James Comey had on the election. Eleven days before Election Day, FBI Director Comey reopened the FBI investigation of Hillary Clinton. Clinton had a substantial lead in the polls, but in the week that followed Comey's announcement her lead quickly evaporated. Two days before the election, Comey issued a "sorry about that" and closed the investigation for lack of anything new. The Hill reports, "Exit polling found that late-deciders in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin broke for Trump by double-digit margins as high as 29 points." During the election campaign, every voter in the country knew that the FBI was investigating Clinton. The FBI was also investigating the Trump campaign for its alleged cooperation with Russia. Voters were not aware of that investigation until after the election.
Precisely, these Never-Trumper RINOs and their leftist political allies always want to ignore that most poll returns always had Hillary Clinton so massively far out in front of Trump -- until very nearly the week before the election itself -- that there would have been no point in any GOPer voting for him IF they had been inherently stupid enough to believe polling returns that so very obviously were politically cooked to outrageously favor the DNC. The same thing is happening again. Fortunately Trump supporters are AGAIN asking the correct questions. In comparison to Hillary and Biden, Trump packed his rallies -- until hysteria pushing panic porn leftists made it impossible to have such venues. Oh and where were all the Vote for Hillary and now the Vote for Biden signs? You see pro Trump signs everywhere and yet NO Biden signs anywhere. Where were all the vital public appearances by Hillary -- they were few and far between and ill-attended back in 2016 -- and where are all the public appearances of Biden? There are almost none for Biden because his dementia is so obvious that now about 38% of voters KNOW that he's blatantly suffering from mental problems. Now also we have Dem Party mayors stand down police departments -- for months -- while radical leftists methodically riot, loot, mug, and murder. So how is ANY OF THIS putting Biden ahead in polling returns that are actually legitimate? It's not. Those polls are as politically cooked today as they were back in 2016.
One day it's "Biden says racist things." The very next day it's "...where are all the public appearances of Biden?" Is confusion the point? What point would that be?
Traditionally by this time presidential contenders are contantly in front of the camera lenses. But not Biden and that's because every time of late that he is let out of his basement bunker long enough to speak in front of a camera he says something utterly stupid or stupidly racist. Thus his keepers are keeping his appearances to a bare minimum. Most people following U.S. politics for most of their life wouldn't actually need this explained to them. Did you grasp the POINT . . . this time?
Claiming Biden has keepers is lunatic fringe. Nobody cares about his gaffes. Biden clarifies and moves on. Like every other adult. There is no tradition of being in front of the cameras during a campaign. Indeed, there is no tradition of a campaign, like Carter in 1980. He's either making public statements or he's not. Asking where he's been the day after he makes a gaffe is mixing two talking points that don't mix well together. Big fail. Basement bunker. That's hilarious.
Nobody cares? Today Biden desparately tried to clarify what he meant in regards to Blacks and Hispanics . . . and failed.
And a college educate teacher in Montana has more impact than a homeless person in california. Unfortunate that Montana gets its whopping e minable electors, but the problem is that the number of members of the house of the representatives is too small. If California wants more electors, then perhaps they should push to either expand the size of the house or divide the state into 4 states which would give them a minimum of 6 more electors.
We have a choice -- a man who clearly is mentally deficient, getting worse every day, won't hold a news conference, has been a politician 40 years, and has achieved nothing. What will this man's mental state be like in 2 more years? He is going downhill fast. The other man is sharp, will hold news conferences, answers all questions, been a politician for 4 years, has achieved much, and proved he can make America great again. If you want a better life for you and your kids then you better vote for Trump.
You may believe those manufactured numbers but that and wishful thinking will not put Biden in the White House. Every single person who voted for Trump in 2016 will vote for him again not to mention many more new Trump voters from heretofore locked Democrat groups. Democrat supporters so smugly believe that Trump voters are knuckle dragging neanderthals and don't pay attention to issues. The Democrats gave us four years of their juvenile Orange Man Bad dog and pony show. The crap they tried to pull on America and the ridiculous, insulting way they presented it, is why Trump will win again. We don't live in trailer parks and we all pay close attention to issues especially when presented by people who are more suited for the Comedy channel than Washington DC. These same people have blatantly taken political advantage of the Pandemic and are using it as a springboard to drag America into Socialism which is another Trojan Horse for their dystopian dream for America. They try to play it close to the vest but every day one of their problem children is tipping their hand. AOC is an endless source of the most ridiculous, most inane babble. Tlaib, Omar and Pressley constantly spew their hatred for America and some new comers like Stacey Abrams and Karen Bass make no bones about their political views and plans for America. The fact that people like them have come out of the shadows and openly voice their antithetical, anti American views speaks volumes about the threat that the Democrat party is to America. As if Hillary Clinton wasn't terrifying enough now the Democrats are now propping up these young bolsheviks and it's solidifying Trump support. The only way now for Biden to win now would be by rigging the election, an attempt could effectively shut down the election or at least open the possibility of a challenge and a recount. The Democrat "resistance" of the past four years makes this scenario highly probable.
