The trade war with China and Wall Street

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Sandy Shanks, Aug 30, 2019.

  1. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump's trade war with China began March 22, 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–United_States_trade_war

    This chart shows how serious the problem is. Anyone thinking that Trump is responsible for any profit they may have made on their investments should take a close look at this chart and use the scanning tool provided.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

    Notice how the stock market jumped up roughly 2,000 points after the November election. The Republican Party took control of government and Wall Street reacted in a very positive way because business leaders are generally Republican.

    The important point is this. The Dow leaped ahead by 2,000 points before Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2017. He hadn't done anything yet.

    A far more important point is the fact that since Trump started his trade war with China, the Dow has actually lost ground.


    On Jan. 29, 2018, the Dow hit its 2018 high of 26,439. As of August 23, 2019, the Dow stood at 25,629, a net loss of 810.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  2. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    On Jan. 29, 2018, the Dow hit its 2018 high of 26,439. On Wednesday, the stock market rallied (hooray!). The Dow soared 258 points to reach 26,036.

    That is only 403 points shy of where we were on Jan. 29, 2018.

    On Thursday, The Dow soared 326 points to reach 26,362.

    That is only 77 points shy of where we were on Jan. 29, 2018.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  3. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump's trade war with China just took a turn for the worst.

    Trump said that the U.S. is putting 10% tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods, effective Sept. 1. His announcement resulted in stocks worst week of 2019 amid renewed investor fears about his trade dispute with China.

    China retaliated. China, which has historically controlled its currency, the yuan, allowed it to fall to its lowest level against the dollar in more than a decade.

    "Stocks fell sharply Monday as a trade war between the world’s largest economies intensified with China retaliating against President Donald Trump’s latest move. The move continues a sell-off that began last week when President Trump ordered new tariffs on the rest of Chinese goods."

    “Now we have a trade situation that is going off the rails as the side effects multiply due to the ramping up of the use of tariffs and we are only further apart from any resolution with the Chinese,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “The policy of using tariffs as a tool to address our legitimate beefs with the Chinese has failed miserably.”

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/05/us-futures-amid-trade-turmoil-between-beijing-and-washington.html

    One week was the worst week of the year, now the worst day.

    "Goldman Sachs warned clients on Monday that a trade agreement "now looks far off" because officials in Washington and Beijing are "taking a harder line."

    "The Wall Street firm said the most likely outcome is that no deal will be reached before the 2020 election and that President Donald Trump's threatened 10% tariffs on $300 billion of US goods will remain in place on Election Day."

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/06/business/goldman-sachs-trade-war-2020-election/index.html
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  4. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    New York (CNN Business)Stocks soared Tuesday, erasing an early deficit, after the United States delayed some tariffs on Chinese goods.

    The US Trade Representative announced a delay in new tariffs on several categories of Chinese-made consumer goods until December 15. Those goods include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing.

    The Dow was up more than 400 points, or 1.6%, in late morning trading following Monday's nearly 400-point drop. The S&P 500 gained 1.5% while the Nasdaq rose 2%.

    "If anyone had doubts that trade was the thing hanging over the market, today seals it," said Bill Stone, chief investment officer with Avalon Investment & Advisory.


    https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/13/investing/dow-stock-market-today-cpi-inflation/index.html
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  5. bradt93

    bradt93 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2016
    Messages:
    1,544
    Likes Received:
    681
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Oh no a 400 point on an otherwise good stock market? How will we survive LOL. You guys really are getting desperate.
     
  6. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump did it again. This is surreal.

    President Donald Trump appears to have sent the stock market into a dive with a few flicks of his fingers, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 200 points in just five minutes following a series of unhinged tweets attacking China and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

    At 10:57 Friday morning, Trump posted a tweet in which he asked “who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powell or Chairman Xi?”

    Then two minutes later, Trump posted a series of tweets ranting against China in which he said, among other things, that “We don’t need China and, frankly, would be far better off without them,” and that American companies are “hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China.”


    [​IMG]
    https://www.mediaite.com/news/stock...5-minutes-after-trumps-stunning-china-tweets/

    We are reminded that Putin wanted this man to become our President. No doubt, Putin is quite happy with his choice.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  7. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Aug. 14, the Dow is down 800 points, the Nasdaq is down 242 points, and the S&P is down 86 points. The Dow is currently at 25,480, 40 points higher than it was five months ago.

    Naturally, Trump and Trump's Democrat, Peter Navarro, the architect of the trade war with China, are both blaming the Fed, according to the Trump Network, otherwise known as Fox News.

    “This is basically the Federal Reserve’s problem,” Navarro said. “They are causing this because when Jay Powell got in this chairman he proceeded to rein in interest rates by at 100 interest points, too far too fast. Even though the Trump economy is rock solid, it slowed us down a bit because of those higher interest rates.”

    Trump joined the chorus, tweeting, "The Fed has got to do something! The Fed is the Central Bank of the United States, not the Central Bank of the World."

    This, of course, is good for my health. If Trump ever accepted blame for his screwed up policy and apologized, I might have a coronary.

    What Trump and his Democrat are saying is meant for his base. They are gullible enough to believe it. No one else will.

    Let's take a look at the facts. On August 1, Trump announced a 10% tariff on $300B of Chinese goods that are popular with American consumers, clothing, shoes, computers, cell phones, etc. That precipitated the worst week of the year for the stock market. The following Monday, August 5, Trump's announcement caused the worst day of the year. The Dow plunged 760 points.

    On August 12, the Dow lost 391 points, but then on August 13 The US Trade Representative announced a delay of Trump's tariffs on several categories of Chinese-made consumer goods until December 15. Those goods include cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing, and the Dow shot up more than 400 points.

    Tariffs on popular consumer goods cause higher prices. Even Trump admitted that yesterday. Higher prices cause inflation. Inflation causes less demand. Less demand causes unemployment. Tariffs cause recession, Econ 101.

    Today, August 14, the stock market set another record. Now it is the worst day of the year. The reason, recession fears. The Times reports, "Trade-war worries hammered financial markets again on Wednesday as data from Germany and China showed trouble for manufacturing-reliant economies, while the bond market renewed fears of an American recession."

    But our President thinks the Fed is to blame. The complete lack of comprehension on the part of our current President never ceases to amaze me.

    "If anyone had doubts that trade was the thing hanging over the market, today seals it," said Bill Stone, chief investment officer with Avalon Investment & Advisory.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  8. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    With reporters Trump has chosen who dare not challenge his many lies, Trump lied his way through another news conference. This time it appeared he held it on an airport tarmac, not the White House lawn as he usually does. The usual background noise of propeller blades was present, drowning out reporters' questions. We can only assume what the question was based on Trump's shouted deceitful reply.

    For example, once again Trump bragged about how his treasury was taking in billions of dollars, not daring to mention that is being paid by the American consumer. He told us how China is losing millions of jobs as manufacturing is moving out of China. He did not say where he got that information, mostly because he just made it up.

    The complying reporters did not question his lies. They continued with their softball questions that allowed Trump to make short speeches.

    Trump is scared to death of conducting a full-blown press conference in the White House press room with the entire White House press corps. Those reporters are not bashful about asking follow-up questions and revealing lies told by the President.

    Which explains why Trump has held only two press conferences in 31 months. The last over a year ago, both were disasters for him, and he will not hold another. There hasn't been a press conference by his press secretary in months.

    Trump has become the secret President. He wants to hide.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  9. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Thanks to Trump's trade war with China, both economies are slowing. However, China's GDP growth is nearly three times that of the U.S. You won't hear that from Trump who likes to tell us how weak the Chinese economy is.

    GDP increased 2.1%, down from the first quarter’s 3.1% and the weakest increase since Q1 of 2017 when Trump took office.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/26/us-gdp-second-quarter-2019.html

    China's gross domestic product grew at 6.2% in the quarter ended June, the slowest quarterly growth rate since 1992 and down from 6.4% in the previous quarter.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/07/15/economy/china-gdp-growth/index.html
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  10. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2015
    Messages:
    8,900
    Likes Received:
    5,246
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Sandy thinks we should just surrender.
     
  11. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    These are final results of our day on Wall Street. Trump's precipitated drop on stocks is far worse than earlier. The Dow ended up off 623 points, reducing the Dow to 25,629. that is 81 points below March 15 when Trump started his trade war with China. The Nasdaq was off 240 points and the S&P 76.

    What does all that mean? Because of Trump's tweets today, for the fourth time in a month, he cost millions of Americans to permanently lose principle in their retirement investment accounts. There are many doubters of that statement, but here is how that works.

    It is really quite simple. It is 4th grade math.

    An IRA has $100,000 dollars in it. Because of Trump's announcement the account loses $5,000. So now the account is down to $95,000. Follow me so far?

    Due to market changes, at some point the account gains $5,000. So now the account is back up to $100,000. So, the account didn't lose money. Right?

    WRONG! If the account had not lost the money in the first place, when market changes caused it to gain $5,000, the account would have $105,000 in it, not $100,000. The $5,000 lost because of Trump is permanent.

    Sorry about that. I mean it. I lost, too, but I'm mostly in bonds. Too old to gamble.

    Now I know what some are going to say. Some will say that is ridiculous or something similar. Some will lecture me on the stock market and investing. But no will be able to tell me why the 4th grade math is ridiculous or something similar. That's because the 4th grade math is right on.

    Some will say, "Nothing is permanent until it is sold." That argument is made to counter selling stocks because of a downward trend. It has nothing to do with loss of principle, which is what I am talking about.

    Thank you Mr. President. I look forward to your next tweet.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  12. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    No, that is wrong. I think you should just learn.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  13. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump said U.S. trade officials received overnight calls from the Chinese saying Beijing was ready to return to the negotiating table.

    China called last night our top trade people and said. ‘Let’s get back to the table,’ so we will be getting back to the table and I think they want to do something. They have been hurt very badly but they understand this is the right thing to do and I have great respect for it. This is a very positive development for the world,” Trump said.

    I think we are going to have a deal,” he added.

    Just had a long and very good call with President Xi of China. Deal is moving along very well. If made, it will be very comprehensive, covering all subjects, areas and points of dispute. Big progress being made!” Donald J. Trump, December 29, 2018.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ss-on-possible-china-trade-deal-idUSKCN1OS0IL
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  14. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump claimed to have gotten two phone calls on Sunday night from high-ranking Chinese officials seeking to negotiate a trade deal. “High-level calls,” he said. Chinese government officials said Monday that they were unaware of any such calls.

    Trump couldn't even get his own treasury secretary to confirm the calls. Mnuchin is no idiot. He is not going to get wrapped up in a Trump tall take.

    Trump untruths included at least eight false claims in his G7 press conference, plus at least five more misleading/questionable/lacking in key context. He lives in his own little world where he is allowed to make up his own reality.

    The Dow and the broader stock market finished sharply higher on Monday, reversing course from Friday's selloff caused by Presidential tweets. Trump said China wants to get back to the negotiating table, and the Dow gained 270 points.

    When it became apparent that Trump lied about the phone calls, the Dow today lost 121 of those 270 points.

    It is anyone's guess as to how much longer Wall Street will continue to believe Trump.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  15. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Josephwalker said:
    Farmers are being subsidized for they're losses with tarrif money and our economy is doing quite nicely as China's is in a tailspin.


    Subsidized? B.S. They are getting welfare because of Trump's trade war with China. Farmers do not want welfare. They want a level playing field, but the President they voted for isn't giving it to them.

    Another aspect of Trump's stupidity.

    In an interview with an older Wisconsin farmer who still supported Trump, the man said that in the end things will improve for farmers and the rest of us. He said this while prices on popular consumer items will skyrocket beginning Sept. 1 because of Trump's 15% tariff.

    In 2 1/2 years Trump has yet to sign a major trade deal. "Sorry, it's the way I negotiate," Trump said unapologetically.

    Strange how all the good things that are going to happen are always in the future with Trump. At this stage of his Presidency, that is getting a little old.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  16. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Aug 1, 2016
    Messages:
    9,784
    Likes Received:
    7,773
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Sandy, 13 posts and you made 11 of them. Another bad night or you worried you might not be able to buy any more cheap Chinese keyboards?
     
    Seth Bullock likes this.
  17. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2015
    Messages:
    8,900
    Likes Received:
    5,246
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    I think you should learn to stand up for America instead of surrendering.
     
    Jestsayin likes this.
  18. opion8d

    opion8d Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2018
    Messages:
    4,453
    Likes Received:
    3,307
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Starting a trade war with China was dumb. The first thing China did was hit our farmers in red states in response. Then they started negotiating new deals with other growers so a significant portion of the soybean market is gone, gone, gone. What about the U.S. market for Chines goods? It's still very much there, just ask Wal*Mart. Not only that, but China has been cultivating new markets all over a developing world for decades.

    Up the tariffs? = Devalue the currency. Ergo, no slacking demand. Move-countermove. China can (and will) play this game forever. China is looking to make the U.S. #2 and they love the way Trump is so easily played. Well, gee Mom, then what should we do? Stay in TPP. Whoops! Too late. Work with our allies to develop a coordinated plan to rein in China. Whoops! Our allies hate our guts.
    Dump Trump for someone with brains. Bingo!

    Then we'll have a major task of undoing what the Moron in Chief destroyed. TPP #2 -- maybe but it looks like a long shot. Mend relations with allies? That can happen pretty quickly. Develop a united front - of course. Drop the tariffs? Tricky, there's that little matter of China's devalued currency. Messy isn't it?
     
    Bowerbird and Sandy Shanks like this.
  19. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Trump's trade war with China began March 22, 2018. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China–United_States_trade_war

    This chart shows how serious the problem is. Anyone thinking that Trump is responsible for any profit they may have made on their investments should take a close look at this chart and use the scanning tool provided.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/1358/dow-jones-industrial-average-last-10-years

    A far more important point is the fact that since Trump started his trade war with China, the Dow has actually lost ground.


    On Jan. 29, 2018, the Dow hit its 2018 high of 26,439. As of August 30, 2019, the Dow stood at 26,403, a net loss of 36 points.

    Seth, you have me all wrong. I am standing up for America. I refuse to surrender to Trump.

    But you have. You believe his B.S. and his lies. Recently, he said the Chinese called him. He lied. How can you support a man who you cannot trust?

    "I think you should learn to stand up for America." You really have been suckered in. Trump is not America.
     
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2019
    Bowerbird likes this.
  20. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2015
    Messages:
    8,900
    Likes Received:
    5,246
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You never stand up for America. You advocate for surrender on everything.
     
  21. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You haven't questioned the fact that Trump is hurting America's economy. Of course, you can't because only facts have been reported here. Trump is not America.

    Seth, you are making a fool of yourself.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  22. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

    As usual, China said they were going to be buying “big” from our great American Farmers. So far they have not done what they said. Maybe this will be different!

    7:10 AM - 13 Aug 2019

    Aw, darn, China isn't playing fair.

    The Chinese are patient, and Xi Jinping is a very patient man. They are used to five, ten, and twenty year plans. Xi is also politically savvy. He knows Trump is a very unpopular President and is getting more unpopular everyday as his trade war becomes more serious..Because of his 15% tariff, prices on popular consumer goods go up big time beginning Sept. 1.

    Trump has until November 2020 to make some progress. So far his trade war has been disastrous, and Wall Street has been treading water since Jan. 2018. Today, even Trump is concerned about a possible recession.

    All Xi has to do is wait him out. Actually, in Chinese terms, Xi doesn't have long to wait. Thirteen months, that is thirteen seconds on the Chinese clock.
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  23. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said, “China’s announcement that it will not buy any agricultural products from the United States is a body blow to thousands of farmers and ranchers who are already struggling to get by.”

    Duvall pointed out, “Now, we stand to lose all of what was a $9.1 billion market in 2018, which was down sharply from the $19.5 billion U.S. farmers exported to China in 2017.”

    The Farm Bureau report showed that farmer bankruptcies had risen in every region of the U.S. for the year ending in June except for the Southwest. Wisconsin, Kansas and Minnesota led the nation in Chapter 12 filings; bankruptcy filings in Kansas and Minnesota increased so significantly in the past year that they reached the highest levels of the past decade.

    Farmers are probably the first to realize that they will have lost a lot of Chinese market share to other countries or that China will start to grow more of the crops they have been importing. It has taken decades to grow the Chinese market but a significant amount will be lost in just a few years due to Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation.

    A Newsweek article in May detailed a Fox News interview with Patty Edelburg, vice president of the Washington-based National Farmers Union, which represents about 200,000 U.S. farms. In the interview she said, "It has been insane. We've had a lot of farmers—a lot more bankruptcies going on, a lot more farmer suicides.


    https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...-bankruptcies-and-suicides-rise/#73d86c32bc8d

    The Trump White House has taken one of America’s leading export sectors and turned it into a group dependent upon government welfare for its very survival.

    Trump tweeted, "farmers will be a a very BIG and FAST beneficiary of our deal with China. They intend to start purchasing agricultural product immediately. We make the finest and cleanest product in the World, and that is what China wants. Farmers, I LOVE YOU!
     
    Bowerbird likes this.
  24. Seth Bullock

    Seth Bullock Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2015
    Messages:
    8,900
    Likes Received:
    5,246
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    Stuff it, Sandy. I've spent enough time explaining the stock market to you.

    You don't know what you're talking about. All you know is that you hate Trump. And your solution to any challenge to our country is to surrender.
     
    Thedimon likes this.
  25. Sandy Shanks

    Sandy Shanks Well-Known Member Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2016
    Messages:
    20,340
    Likes Received:
    4,941
    Trophy Points:
    113
    You have not questioned a thing I have written on this thread.You can't. It is all documented complete with sources and links.

    You say everything I have written is based on hate. That is both ludicrous and pathetic. It is something Trumpets say when they can't challenge anything I have written.

    Yes, you have said a great deal about the stock market. Nothing you have said refutes anything I have said.

    If you disagree with anything I have said, please say so and be specific in your examples.

    Another popular tactic by Trumpets is to make accusations like you just made without explaining the basis of the accusations.
     
    Bowerbird, AKS and opion8d like this.

Share This Page