Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

All New Cases are de facto positives so the testing that resulted in negatives are essentially a non issue as far as this is concerned.

You are correct that the death rate could decline however I suspect that the percentage of vulnerable people in rural areas is on a par with urban with the possibility of it being higher although that is offset by greater social distancing which in turn is offset by a lack of medical resources. Too many unknowns to make even an educated guess so sticking with what we do know and just see where that goes.

 

U.S. approaching 400 deaths per 1M pop.

For anyone’s info, back in early April, and during a Covid19 briefing, Trump proudly displayed a “We’ve done a very good job” comparison chart.

Said “Deaths per 100,000” chart, compared the U.S. and the six most affected European nations, thus, Italy, Spain, Belgium, UK, France, and Netherland.

Note; Since then, we’ve surpassed Netherland, and soon, we will surpass France’s 450 deaths per 1M pop.

 

I'm not the most well versed in math. Is this saying that for every 1 million US Citizens, 400 people would have died? That's the basic reading, but I'm a dunce here.

 

Yep.

 

I would like to put a perspective on the death toll in the US.
The US participated with soldiers in WWI for a year and a half, roughly.
116,000 soldiers were killed in fighting during that time, in some of the most brutal fights of that war.

The US has surpassed that death toll, with ease, in 3 month.
Or 8 times the soldiers buried in Arlington.

Let that sink in for a while.

 

Determined to go their own way, to hell with everyone else. A reasonable model in the good times - disastrous in the bad.

When the SHTF, we very often only survive via the strength of number. Pandemics, wars, and economic depressions are perfect examples of how true that is.

 

New Zealanders aren't Taiwanese either. Nor are Greeks, or Australians, or Thais.

Just saying

 

What is it they say? Where California goes the US goes.


8.5% positive today.

Arizona is nuts.

Texas struggles.

As does Florida.

And Georgia.

 

Here's the most confusing thing about asymptomatic cases, and this disease: At first, we believed it'd take 2-14 days for symptoms to show, and on average, it takes 3 weeks to resolve a case. Even with our half-assed measures, millions of Americans should have been inside for that time. Even if they were asymptomatic, why didn't the bug leave their body?

Could it be that asymptomatic carriers retain the virus indefinitely until they acquire symptoms?

 

It did go down. By about 85% from the worst of it.

The trouble is we opened to soon so there were still to many cases for us to do a good job of tracing those infected. It doesn't do any good to lock down if you don't do anything different when you open up. There are still thousands of people ready to spread it again.
I live in Arizona and was exposed 9 days ago. I have not been contacted to tell me I should quarantine and I don't expect I will be given the number of cases. If the family of the lady that exposed me hadn't called I would have been at the store yesterday.

 

Do you have testing available?

 

FTR we just passed the half way mark to Dr Fauci's projection with 51,097 New Cases yesterday!

Still headed in the WRONG direction!

 

I am posting this today BEFORE the EOD analyses for 2020-07-001 worldwide and for the USA.

"Future Upperdecks" Series #1 and #2: extrapolation completed, endpoint reached.
​

So, from the quoted link above you see the links to the starts for all 11 countries that I have dubbed "Future Upperdecks". On 2020-06-014, at halfway-point, I ran a quick analysis (the posting I am quoting right now).

So, the end results:



In the graphic, I have included the table from the half-way point as well. You can see that of 11 countries in this series only one came very close to meeting the extrapolation, the 10 others were way off.

That being said, of all 11 countries, all of which were under the 1,000 total C19 cases mark when I began the study, 6 are now above the 1,000 mark and 3 of them, way above the 1,000 mark.

The country that almost made the extrapolation, CABO VERDE, missed the projected +3.95% growth rate per day and came in at around +2.75% per day. The actual growth I have listed in (fold), which means you can read the number left of the colon and put "fold" after it. For instance, in one month's time, Libya's C19 case total was almost 6-fold over where it began, and so on and so on.

Again, just as a reminded (and I wrote this a number of times), I did not expect these small countries to keep up with the wild growth rates I saw at the end of May. This was a mind excercise and I find it was worth doing it. Too often, when we think of our world, we only think of the major, 1st-world, heavily industrialized nations, but there really are more than 200 countries on our planet and all of them have been hit be COVID-19. And you may be interested to see on which continent most of those 11 countries can be found.

Soon, I will be starting a second "Lower Upperdecks" series, with about 10 other countries.

So, short and sweet, that was the analysis!

-Stat

 

I need to work right now, so the big analyses will have to wait some hours, but the biggest news:

The world added over +217,000 new C19 cases yesterday, shattering all records.

The USA added +52,100 new C19 cases yesterday, shattering all US records and ranking second behind Brazil's +55,209 from 2020-06-019.

And Wednesday is generally not even the heaviest day of the week.....

More later, gotta work.

-Stat

 

Quite possibly.

 

Point well taken.

 

There's the rub, right there, and said perfectly, imo.

I hope you have not been infected. Will be saying mi sh'beyrach for you.

 

Worth noting that the USA is CONSISTENTLY adding +/- 25% of all New Cases even as the rest of the nation's in the world report their own growth in New Cases.

Speaking of New Cases in the rest of the world South Africa ranked 4th in the world below India and above both Russia and Mexico. I suspect that if we had reliable reporting elsewhere in Africa that the world totals would be considerably higher.

One more observation is that if we have 205,000+ New Cases tomorrow we will reach 11 million just 5 days after passing the 10 million milestone.

This is far from over!

 

HERE the entire posting for the worldwide C19 stats for EOD the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average system in effect, posted 2020-06-029, 12:40 GMT +2, #10712.

During the run of the day on 2020-07-001 and also this morning, 2020-07-002, there were two other important analysis:
USA EOD report for 2020-06-030, posted 2020-07-001, 10:44 GMT +2, #10765.
„Future Upperdecks 1 and 2“ end-analysis, posted 2020-07-002, 10:54 GMT +2, #10789.

You can confirm/sort the data for this analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

COVID-19 worldwide statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-07-001 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
The second half of 2020 begins with a bang​

֍ 10,795,100 ֍
A record-shattering +217,344 new C19 cases over the day before.
The USA goes well over the +50,000 mark in new C19 cases.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +182,231 new C19 cases per day.
There are now 131 nations with at least 100 total COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 518,058 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,872 of them were on this day.
Rolling 7 day worldwide average: +4,871 deaths per day.
1,057 Brazilian, 676 US-American, 648 Mexican, 438 Indian, & 216 Russian deaths were recorded on this day.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
​

We ended the first half of 2020 very close 10.6 million confirmed C19 cases, coming from a handful of cases on January 1st, 2020 to this enormous total. Already on the first day of the the 2nd half of 2020 the world came in under 10.8 million.

There is a 20,443 case disparity between the numbers on my excel table and WorldOMeter because at the very end of yesterday, WorldOMeter adjusted the total numbers for 2020-06-030 up from 10,577,756 to 10,598,199, an addition of 20,443 cases which until now, have not been accounted for. We've had this happen alot. You can always see screenshots from past analyses that back up my numbers. So, yeah, in reality, over +217,000 C19 cases were added to the total. And you can see that the daily average has already risen by +11,000 and we are only in the middle of the week....

The entire month of June saw +100,000 or more new C-19 cases per day and you can extend that statistic out to 35 out of the last 36 days, save 2020-05-031. 15 of the last 16 days saw more than +140,000 new C19 cases per day. The last 9 days in a row saw more than +160,000 cases per day. I would say that it's a certainty that going under +100,000 cases a day is now a thing of the past and soon enough, +200,000 per day is going to be the norm.

Consider this: On Saturday, 2020-06-027 at 20:11 GMT +2 (my time in Germany), we broke over the 10-million barrier. Now, 4 days and 6 hours later, the world has already added just shy of 800,000 cases. If we have a day today like we had yesterday, then we will hit the 11-million mark, today, and within FIVE days time.

The worldwide analysis for 2020-06-021, has an extrapolation of how many total C19-cases and C19-deaths we are likely to have by the end of 2020, you may be interested to go and read it again, right under the excel-table for that day.

The number of daily deaths on this Wednesday were slightly less than the three Wednesday before before.

Total cases per country, descending (countries circa +250 C19 cases and above):
​

131-66-20-2​

In terms of total cases per country, there are 131 nations in the "thousand club". .

Of those 131, 66 nations are now in the "10,000 club".

20 of those 66 nations are at at 100,000 or more, with Colombia having crossed over the 100,000 mark on 2020-07-001. Very likely by the end of this week, Quatar will also cross over the 100,000 line.

Of those 19, 2 nations are in the "1,000,000" club: the USA and Brazil. Russia currently has 654,405 C19 cases, but India, with 605,220, is now only -49,185 cases away from Russia and growing more than twice as many daily C19 cases as Russia. On 2020-06-028, 4 days ago, I opened an excel-tab for India in my calculations and did an analysis here: Excel-table for and 1st analysis of INDIA, posted 2020-06-028, 21:54 GMT +2, #10616. In the analysis, I predicted the following:

So, 4 of those 8-9 days have come and gone and it really looks as if India will surpass Russia in 4 days, exactly within my prediction. Russia is averaging about 6,800 cases per day, India is averaging 18,900. 18,900 - 6,800 = 12,100 case gain per day for India over Russia. 49,185 / 12,100 = 4.06 days. So, yeah, either on July 5th, July 6th at the very latest, India will surpass Russia and become the country with the 3rd highest C19 case-load in the world. Exactly one month ago, On 2020-06-002, Russia was 216,550 cases ahead of India. A lot can change in one month's time.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

75-22-3​

75 countries had +100 or more new cases, more than 1/3 of all nations in the world. The day before, it was 73.

Of those 73, 22 countries had +1000 or more new cases. The day before, it was 20. Israel joined the +1,000 list for the very first time.

Of those 20, 3 nations had over +10,000 new cases: the USA, Brazil and India. The USA, with +52,100 cases (according to my Excel table, Worldmeter lists it at +51,097, part of the 20,443 cases disparity I noted at the top of the analysis), set a record for that country and worldwide, that is second only to Brazil's +55,209 on 2020-06-019.

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

85-37-9-1​

There are now 85 nations with 100 total deaths or more.

Of those 85, 37 nations now have over +1,000 COVID-19 deaths to date.

Of those 37, there are 9 nations with over +10,000 total COVID-19 deaths to date.

And finally, of those 9, 1 nation has over +100,000 total COVID-19 deaths, completely dwarfing all other nations on the planet: the USA.

Currently at 130,798 total deaths, the USA is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 25.36% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA. A extrapolation pointing to 266,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, currently at 60,713 total deaths and growing around 1,000 deaths per day, is now rank 2 among the C19 dead and closing in on +100,000 deaths rather quickly. An average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 gets Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average is: +808.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:



Brazil, USA, India, Mexico, Russia, Peru, UK, Iran, Colombia and Iraq lead with the most daily deaths.

10 nations reported over +100 daily deaths (it was 13 the day before). 5 of those 10 countries are from the Americas.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country, 30 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Israel having gone over the 1,000,000 line on 2020-07-001.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. Very soon, China will also be adjusting it's actual and daily C19 cases and deaths. We may be in for a real statistical jolt, here. The USA has now performed 34.9 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 19.9 million tests (300,000 more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations in terms of COVID-19 infections and in terms of total deaths, has performed 3.1 million such tests.

Facit: on 2020-07-001, the world gained more then +217,000 new C19 cases and we begin the first half of 2020 just under 10.8 million total C19 cases.

The world-wide curve, which had generally flattened, is numerically picking up substantially. It is still logistical and not exponential, but there is a noticeable increase in overall daily C19 cases. That being said, new hotspots are verifiably emerging (Peru, Chile and Pakistan have now appeared on my mental radar screen). The average daily deaths in terms of raw numbers remains stabile, but due to the enormous amount of overall cases, the actual death rate continues to sink, which is in and of itself a very good sign. The problem is the huge increase in total cases, which will invariably, absent a working vaccine, cause the average daily deaths to rise again, probably within the next 17-25 days. It's like a game of whack-a-mole. We've seen this pattern happen before.


-Stat

 

HERE the COVID-19 USA numbers for the day before. Reminder: New 7-day rolling average. Also, the USA is now being analyzed in 57 Units instead of 50 states.

You can confirm/sort the data for the following analysis as you wish via the WORLDOMETER website for today -or- the WAYBACK MACHINE when searching for today's date in the future: search for one or two days later than you want, then use the "yesterday" or "2 days ago" function at the top their large excel table.

And now:

COVID-19 USA statistics EOD Report for Wednesday, 2020-07-001 in the USA (EOD = GMT +0):
The second half of 2020 has started in the USA with a big bang

**2,779,953** (25.75% of worldwide total)
A record shattering +52,100 cases, first time ever over +50,000 (23.51% of worldwide haul)
16 days in a row of +25,000 or more new cases / 11 days of +30,000 / 7 days of +40,000 or more!
All 48 states within the Continental USA now have +1,000 total cases or more.
130,798 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA (25.25% of worldwide deaths); 676 of them recorded on this day.
1,164,680 people have recovered, 1,484,475 are, however, still sick.
The recovered/active statistic is static right now.​

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended the first half of 2020 at 2.73 million confirmed C19 cases in the USA, coming from a handful of cases in January, 2020 to this enormous total. And already on the first day of the second half of 2020, the USA sails well over +50,000 new C19 infections to land not far from 2.8 million. There is a disparity between the +cases value at my excel table and the worldometer website. At the end of the day yesterday, they adjusted the worldwide figures for the day before (2020-06-030) up by more than +22,000 and about +1,000 of that affected the USA. Either way, those cases were not accounted for yet. Now they are. And either way, the USA came in over +50,000 C19 cases.

Yesterday, I wrote:

All I can say is: YEPP.


The actual number of daily deaths on 2020-07-001 is definitely down over the 4 Wednesdays before. This is EXCEEDINGLY good news, but the real concern here is that with a huge spike in cases within the Union, a spike in deaths will follow in the next 3-4 weeks, ala what we saw in NY and NJ, one month later in LA, MI and IL. We may soon see this in FL, GA, TX, AZ and CA.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:
​

57: 53-41-16-7​

53 out of 57 UNITS have over 1,000 confirmed total COVID-19 cases apiece, with Montana having crossed over the 1,000-line on 2020-07-001. 48 of those 53 Units are US States and incidentally, all 48 are within the continental USA. At 978 and 926 C19 cases, Alaska and Hawaii will cross over this line by the end of July. However, at 298, the pacific Territories may take a considerably longer time to get there.

41 of the UNITS I just mentioned now have more than +10,000 cases. Currently at 8,931 cases, Oregon is up next. This kind of thing tends to happen in spurts: a bunch of Units (mostly, states) will slowly get close to a milestone and within days, they all jump over said milestone.

Of those 41, 16 have more than +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Connecticut and Indiana are likely to go over the 50,000 line in the next days.

Of those 16, 7 have more than +100,000 confirmed C19 cases. Pennsylvania is now just under 92,000 cases and slowly making its way toward the 100,000 line.

New daily cases:

​

57: 57-39-9​

57 of 57 Units reported at least one new case, 50 of those 57 being states.

39 of 57 Units reported more than +100 new cases. 37 of those 39 Units were states. The non-states were: Veterans Affairs and US military.

9 of 57 Units reported over +1,000 new cases, all 9 of them being states. TX set a state record and went over +8,000 new cases. Both FL and CA were were right around +6,500 cases, while AZ, which is now over hospital bed capacity, came in at +4,800. AZ is initiating a triage-system which means that soon, a large number of people are going to start dying in AZ, plain and simple. The number of daily cases in the US is really on the rise. 7 of those 9 states are from the Deep South, the remaining two are from the West/Southwest. Also, 8 of those 9 are coastal states, the exception being AZ. This is a geographical phenomenon.

Here the county listings for the top three states:

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
​

I think this is the most important category when looking to see where other hotspots are emerging and since deaths lag behind new cases, the two rankings are often not the same.

57: 44-18-0​

44 of 57 Units reported at least one new death. 41 of them are US States. The non-states: DC, Veterans Affairs and Navajo Nation.

Of those 44, 18 reported deaths in double digits or more, from +10 to +105, but actually it's from +10 to +88 . All 18 of those 18 Units are US States.

Out of the entire Union, all 57 Units, 0 Units reported more than 100 daily deaths.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

57: 45-24-2
​

45 of 57 Units now have at least 100 total deaths. 41 of those 45 Units are US States. At 93, 92, 92 and 80 total deaths respectively, WV, ID, SD and ND will soon cross over that marker.

Of those 45, 24 Units now have a total of more than +1,000 COVID-19 deaths. 23 of those 24 are US states, the other Unit is US Veterans Affairs. At 972 and 956, respectively, Alabama and Rhode Isand are inching up toward the +1,000-death line, it will likely happen within July, 2020.

Of those 24 Units, 2 have suffered more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths: NY and NJ, the original epicenters of the virus in February/March/April 2020.

​

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FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 130,798 US deaths from COVID-19. To make this easier to visualize, here is the listing of US-American cities with a projected 2020 population of between 127,000-136,000:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of ALL of CEDAR RAPIDS, never to get it back again. Think about that.

NEW EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-06-001)​

What happens if, on the average, instead of 1,400 dead per day (which was the extrapolation from 2020-04-028 through 2020-05-031), let's take 1/2 of that, "just" 700 dead per day every day from the beginning of June, 2020, until the end of this year?

This extrapolation is now up and running, you can find it at the online excel table (you'll find the logistical tab easily). I will do a report on this once a month, on the first day of the month, but you can check in on the numbers as often as you like to see if we really are on our way to 266,000 total US COVID-19 deaths, or not. On the first day of each month, the table for the month before will also be published here.

Some dates to keep in mind. If this trends as I think it may, averaging at some point in time, +700 deaths per day, then we would likely reach the following milemarkers:

150,000 deaths on or around 2020-08-002.
200,000 deaths on or around 2020-10-013.
250,000 deaths on or around 2020-12-023.

Mitigate. Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the new extrapolation, which started on June 1st, 2020, to happen. Right now, we are 2,903 deaths ABOVE the extrapolation, which puts us just over 4 days ahead of the projection.

-Stat

 

I googled Arizona’s Covid19 new cases chart, and its timeline of George Floyd protests.

1. Chart shows an upward zigzag line starting May 25th.

2. Protests started May 30th.

Thus, assuming all affected May 30th protesters had a 4 day incubation period, and then, were tested positive within 48 hours, thus, conservatively, let’s assume Arizona’s June 6th confirmed cases were all protest related.

Here’s a damn good question;

What caused Arizona’s May 25th to June 5th Covid spike?

 

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-coronavirus-trnd/

May 8th to May 25th is 17 days which means that the answer to your question was the governor reopening the economy and people going shopping, getting their hair done and eating out at restaurants as if there was no virus.

 

Testing:

 

The re-opening, against CDC guide lines, gave the people a false sense of security and they behaved as if nothing had happen.
When the first spikes came in, the Governor did not have the guts to slow down or re evaluate.
Than came Memorial week end and a hell broke loose, it was party time, big time party time.
We all saw the pictures
It continued, out of control.
The Governor of AZ had lost control and did not have the guts to shut her down.
The President of the Navajo Res saw it and took action, he shut the Res down for the week ends, again, complete shut down, curfew, all businesses closed, so his people would not get into contact with the travelling, partying idiots from the South.
From my stand point there is a positive side, because AZ showed what will happen and enabled Colorado's Governor to grow some stones and turn back some of the openings to prevent a 4th of July explosion.
Just in Time