Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    What?
     
  2. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    because it's not a private company if they chose to be I wouldn't have an issue at all.
     
  3. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    People can say whatever they wish I don't care.


    We aren't talking about a private company. If they wish to be private I don't care what they do.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses between the last worldwide analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-005, posted 2020-08-006, 08:31 GMT +2, #11776.
    The world goes over 19 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-006, 11:57 GMT +2, #11783.
    India goes over 2 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-006, 18:30 GMT +2, #11791.
    The USA goes over 5 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-006, 20:25 GMT +2, #11793.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-08-006 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍********* 19,246,764 *********֍
    THE WORLD GOES OVER 19 MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

    +282,185 new C19 cases over the day before.
    There are 146 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.

    The USA & INDIA went over 5 million and 2 million confirmed C-19 cases -respectively- on 2020-08-006.

    There have now been 716,751 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,464 of them were on this day.
    Brazil will pass 100,000 total deaths on Saturday, 2020-08-008.

    Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +254,780 new C19 cases per day and +5,826 deaths per day.

    1,226 Brazilian, 1,203 US-American, 899 Indian, 829 Mexican, 315 Colombian and 306 S. African deaths were recorded on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    You can see from the upward blue arrow in the excel table that our world have accumulated 7 million new C19 cases within one month's time.

    In a nutshell: right now, both daily rolling statistics are in flux - receding slightly, expanding slightly. I wouldn't put too much weight on a slight daily shift here or there right now. That being said, it really could be that 2020-07-030 was the peak of this new curve within the first wave.

    The number of daily deaths (6,464) for the day currently being analysed was larger than the four Thursdays before.


    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - worktable.png


    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was 1 nation-rubrik-jump on this day: Libya

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.



    Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - total cases.png



    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png

    After having joined the rankings of nations with more than +10,000 new C19 cases in one day for 3 days in a row, Colombia came in under the +10,000-mark on the 4th day and rejoined the 10,000-mark on 2020-08-005 and stayed there on 2020-08-006.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    Currently at 162,804 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.71% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.75%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world.
    A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

    Brazil is currently at 98,944 total deaths, putting it -1,356 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.


    An extrapolation average of +1,243 deaths per day as of 2020-06-024 would have gotten Brazil to 100,000 on July 31st, 2020. Of course, that date has now come and gone. An average of +891 deaths per day gets Brazil to 100,000 on August 15th, 2020. It's current rolling average (which, this time, is also the weekly average) is: +1,038. On 2020-06-024, when I began this extrapolation, Brazil ended the day with 53,874 deaths, so it has suffered +45,070 deaths (just under the total deaths for the UK until now....) since then. It is on track to likely reach 100,000 deaths on Saturday, 2020-08-008, putting it's arrival at the 100,000-death mark exactly between the two extrapolation averages I provided.

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,038 per day
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,074 per day

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's now been 10 days since reaching that milestone and we still have 2 nations on the Earth averaging over +1,000 deaths per day. Further, it's likely to stay that way for a while. It's also only a matter of time until India joins that miserable statistic.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    41 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 41, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

    With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed
    63.1 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 29.7 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 22.1 million such tests (600,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 17.5 million such tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (100,000 thousand LESS than the day before).

    Yesterday, I wrote:



    Soooo, FACIT: on 2020-08-006, the World travelled from 18.97 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 19.0, 19.1 and 19.2 million to land at 19.25 million cases. At this rate, we will go over 20 million total C19 cases on Sunday, 2020-08-009 or Monday, 2020-08-010, probably on Monday.


    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
    There were a number of important analyses between the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for Thursday 2020-08-06, posted 2020-08-006, 08:31 GMT +2, #11776.
    The world goes over 19 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-006, 11:57 GMT +2, #11783.
    India goes over 2 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-006, 18:30 GMT +2, #11791.
    The USA goes over 5 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-006, 20:25 GMT +2, #11793.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Thursday, 2020-08-006 (EOD = GMT +0):
    THE USA GOES OVER 5 MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
    CALIFORNIA GOES OVER 10,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS, THE 3rd STATE TO DO SO


    *****5,032,179*****

    Also, India exceeded 2 million total C19 cases on 2020-08-006.
    Further, our World exceeded 19 million total C19 cases on 2020-08-006.

    +58,611 new COVID-19 cases, definite case-reduction over the Thursday before.
    Just -10,269 away, TEXAS is now closing in on the 500,000-mark.

    There are now 162,804 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,203 of them were recorded on this day.
    USA weekly average = 56,742 new infections & 1,074 deaths per day.

    2,576,668 are recovered (over 50%) / 2,292,707 are still sick, 18,296 of them are in critical condition.

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    You can see from the upward blue arrow in the excel table that the USA accumulated 2 million new C19 cases within one month's time.

    There is a verifiable reduction in the average daily new C19 cases and then starting on 2020-08-005, there was a slight decrease in average daily deaths. We can hope that this is a trend.

    The actual number of daily deaths, +1,203, is less than 1 of the four Thursdays before before but significantly more than the other 3.


    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - worktable.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik change, in total deaths: CA

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png

    Just to get some perspective: Worldwide, there are currently 45 nations with over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with the USA as a whole having almost 10 times as many cases as that baseline number. But in the USA alone, 27 states have over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Now, before you read on, take a minute and think about that data-point.​

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png
    The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

    8 of the 14 states over +1,000 cases on this day are from the Deep South. Per capita, Mississippi is quickly rising in the ranks among C19 cases and deaths and may actually, percentually, be no. 1 right now. Go see yesterday's USA analysis for more information on Mississippi.

    Indiana has joined the +1,000-list.

    It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from this week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths.png

    For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

    For comparison: worldwide, there are only 12 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 162,804 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of all of Mckinney, never to get it back again. Think about that.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

    -200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

    -Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

    -250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

    -286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png
    This means that currently, we are +957 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts a little more than 1 day ahead of the milestone-projections.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 8, 2020
  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    INDIA

    Not only did India cross over the 2 MILLION C19 Case milestone yesterday, 2020-08-006, it also recorded more daily +C19 cases than either the USA or Brazil. And India's rolling daily average in cases is now -verifably- more than Brazil. You can also see from the excel table that India has been breaking +daily case records almost every day. It's been a constant uphill climb, especially over the last 2 months.

    So, to help us remember this moment, here the Excel table for India for 2020-08-006:

    2020-08-006 COVID-19 EOD India 000.png

    The very 1st C19 case in India (in Kerala) was diagnosed on 2020-01-030, so it took 5.5 months (22-23 weeks) for India to get from 1 case to 1,000,000 cases. It only took India 21 days (3 weeks) to double that number from 1,000,000 to 2,000,000. That is an amazing doubling time from the first million to the second.

    To compare, in the USA it took 41 days (just under 6 weeks) to go from the 1st million cases (2020-04-027) to the 2nd million cases (2020-06-007).

    In Brazil, it took just under one month (27 days) to go from the 1st million cases (2020-06-019) to the 2nd million cases (2020-07-016).

    So, India's first million doubling went twice as fast as the USA's and about 25% faster than Brazil's.

    I am not yet familiar enough with the inner workings of India to do a real analysis, but I am working on my knowledge about the subject. Being a Democracy with a state system not all too different from the USA, it's only a matter of learning.

    I can imagine a day coming when India will surpass Brazil in the number of cases, also in the number of deaths and perhaps in 2021, India may very well surpass the USA as well. In a country of almost 1.4 billion people, this should not be a huge surprise.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    1.) Welcome to the thread. Everyone who does not froth at the mouth is welcome here.

    2.) Please read the OP before you jump in.

    3.) Use commas and other forms of correct punctuation. Your run-on sentences are hard for the eyes to read. It is extremely rude to other members to write that way. We are adults here and expect others to write as adults. This is a normal, reasonable expectation.

    4.) Your dissenting view is noted. If you want to be taken seriously, then please pony-up facts in the form of links, screenshot, audio or video examples and the like.

    As to the percentage of deaths by age breakdown, I would inform myself, if I were you. Things have changed greatly since the pandemic first ripped through the East Coast. You can find the statistics you are looking for from a number of reputable, reliable sources. Once you have done that, THEN we can talk, you know, like adults do.

    As for your text about wearing masks: NO. This is a medical issue, not a political one. Either you are smart enough to get it, or you are not. That's your thing, not mine.
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The first amendment to the US-Constitution does not guarantee you the right to endanger other people via deliberate false-information. People are not allowed to scream FIRE in a theater when there is no fire, for example.
     
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Actually, the veracity of his statement is VERY relevant. He is, for better or for worse, currently the President of the United States of America and his words are supposed to carry weight.

    Which part of the biblical commandment "thou shalt not lie" do you not understand?

    I am sure that the founding father would be totally ashamed of your argument and had they known that individuals in the 21st century would be perverting the 1A in this way, they would have worded it far more specifically. There are lots of things that are considered 1A (which also covers free-expression, nööööö). You may feel that it is your right to express yourself freely by standing in the middle of a crosswalk while the light is red, but the traffic laws governing crosswalks see it otherwise. So does the judge.

    I notice that you continue to dodge a totally easy question, posed by Mr. T.

    Either you are too afraid to answer or don't have enough information to answer, or you are simply trolling and I will remind, trolling is an offense in PF.

    So, I too will pose this question to you:

    Do you believe that children are "virtually immune" to covid-19?
     
  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Ok, NOW Mike DeWine says that his second C19 quick test came up negative.....

    Hmmmm..... hmmmmmm........ hmmmmm........
     
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  11. Cosmo

    Cosmo Well-Known Member

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    August 6th, 2020
    The negative result came from a more sensitive test which was administered by the Wexner Medical Center at Ohio State in Columbus following the positive result.

    "A PCR test was administered to the Governor and members of his staff this afternoon. The PCR test looks for the specific RNA for the SARS CoV-2 — in other words, the genetic material specific for the virus that causes COVID-19," DeWine's office said in a statement.

    "The PCR test is known to be extremely sensitive, as well as specific, for the virus. The PCR tests for the Governor, First Lady, and staff were run twice. They came back negative the first time and came back negative when they were run on a second diagnostic platform.
    https://www.citybeat.com/news/blog/...ovid-on-second-test-will-test-for-covid-again
     
  12. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    It's not a medical issue it's a political one.
     
  13. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    No the veracity of statements don't matter to the point I was making.
     
  14. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    Words like what he said don't endanger other people. It isn't the equivalent of causing panic.

    If you doubt the veracity then doubt the veracity. I don't care.
     
  15. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Kind of like you are pulling that out of your nether regions and cannot produce any credible nonpartisan substantiation?
     
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  16. Sallyally

    Sallyally Well-Known Member Donor

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    Good one!
     
  17. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Banned

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    Facebook and Twitter are private companies unless you are trying to make some distinction because they have stockholders in the general public? Still private companies though.

    And regardless of whether you care, society is better off when harmful speech is limited to some reasonable extent.
     
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  18. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    they aren't private companies because they have government protection from lawsuits for what they publish.

    A private company wouldn't have that.
    But it's unconstitutional.

    You either support the First Amendment and the freedom of speech or you don't.
     
  19. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Banned

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    The First Amendment is not limitless, the government providing protection from lawsuits does not make a private company public, and the first amendment does not apply to private companies like Facebook.

    This discussion is no longer relevant to the topic of this thread. If you want to bring it back to something relevant to this thread, answer the question that you have dodged half a dozen times now -

    Are children "virtually immune" to Covid-19?
     
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2020
  20. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    I didn't say it was limitless. The limits however are not whether or not Facebook thinks it's accurate.

    didn't say it was a public company I said it's not a private company. It's not a private company.
    you entered the discussion with me because you couldn't help yourself.

    You're question isn't relevant.
    How would I know?
     
  21. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Banned

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    By reviewing whether children get sick or die from this virus. There are tons of public information available for your analysis.

    Are children "virtually immune" to Covid-19?
     
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  22. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    Why would I review that? Why are you asking me this?

    High point has been about censorship.
     
  23. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Banned

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    This thread is about Covid-19. Whether children are virtually immune is an extremely relevant.

    But whatever man, I am done talking to you if you can't even be bothered to answer that simple question.
     
  24. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    my post was about censorship it couldn't be less relevant to my post since you're responding to me, and not the Opie then you obviously want to talk about what I'm talking about.

    if mentioning censorship in this thread is wrong report me.
    You were never talking to me you were talking at me. you refuse to listen when I told you repeatedly that I don't care about your stupid question. It had nothing to do with what I said.

    If it's so frustrating next time f****** read and think before you respond some bologna about what I believe.
     
  25. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    We are so lucky in the US, India and the Brazi are closing in, but we have secret weapons, demolition derbies, gun shows, arg-fairs, but now we drop the hammer.
    Enough is enough, who the hell do they think they are.
    We are Numero Uno, period, basta

    Sturgis to the front, the mother of all Covid Bombs, 250,000.
    We will show you.
     

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