Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-006, posted 2020-08-007, 09:30 GMT +2, #11829
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-006, posted 2020-08-007, 09:55 GMT +2, #11830.
    INDIA, posted 2020-08-007, 10:20 GMT +2, #11831.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-08-007 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍********* 19,532,532 *********֍
    +285,768 new C19 cases over the day before.
    There are 148 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.

    BRAZIL will go over 3 million confirmed C19 cases and 100,000 C19 deaths today, 2020-08-008.

    There have now been 723,184 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +6,433 of them were on this day.
    Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +255,266 new C19 cases per day and +5,855 deaths per day.

    1,290 US-American, 1,058 Brazilian, 940 Indian, 819 Mexican, 311 Colombian and 305 S. African deaths were recorded on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png
    Just the day before, we passed 19 million C19 cases worldwide and already the next day, we are at 19.5 million.

    In a nutshell: right now, both daily rolling statistics are in flux - receding slightly, expanding slightly. I wouldn't put too much weight on a slight daily shift here or there right now. That being said, it really could be that 2020-07-030 was the peak of this new curve within the first wave.

    The number of daily deaths (6,433) for the day currently being analysed was larger than three of the four Fridays before.


    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - worksheet.png


    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 4 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Gambia, Syria, Poland and Zimbabwe.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - total cases.png



    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png

    Costa Rica joined the +1,000-list for the first time.

    Currently at 2,967,064 total cases and having just added +49,502 such on 2020-08-007, Brazil is now just under 33,000 new cases away from the 3 million mark.

    Here the new cases for the 4 Saturdays before today, 2020-08-008, for Brazil: +42,578, +48,234, +26,649, +36,674. Three of those 4 Saturdays were well over the 33,000 needed to get over the 3 million mark. I place the chance at well over 99.9% that Brazil will climb over 3 million confirmed C19 cases today, 2020-08-008.​

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    Currently at 164,094 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.69% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.71%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world.
    A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

    Brazil is currently at 99,702 total deaths, putting it -298 from the 100,000-death line and at rank 2 among the C19 dead.


    Here the daily death tolls for Brazil for the four Saturdays before today: 1,048, 1,111, 885 and 968. The chances that Brazil will come in under 298 deaths today are absolutely nil. Today, 2020-08-008, in addition to crossing over the 3 million mark in total cases, Brazil will cross over the 100,000-line in deaths and become the second nation in the world to have total deaths in 6-digits. Just to remind, I have been following this with a projection since 2020-06-024, over the last 6 weeks, every day through yesterday's analysis.

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,019 per day
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,050 per day

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. It's now been 11 days since reaching that milestone and we still have 2 nations on the Earth averaging over +1,000 deaths per day. Further, it's likely to stay that way for a while. It's also only a matter of time until India joins that miserable statistic.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    41 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 41, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. At 8 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

    With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed
    63.9 million tests (800,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 30.0 million tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). India has completed 22.7 million such tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 17.8 million such tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (100,000 thousand LESS than the day before).

    FACIT: on 2020-08-006, the World travelled from 19.25 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 19.3, 19.4 and 19.5 million to land at 19.5 million cases. The world will go over 20 million total C19 cases on Monday, 2020-08-010.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
    There were a number of important analyses between the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-006, posted 2020-08-007, 09:55 GMT +2, #11830.
    INDIA, posted 2020-08-007, 10:20 GMT +2, #11831.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-007, posted 2020-08-008, 08:47 GMT +2, #11851.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Friday, 2020-08-007 (EOD = GMT +0):

    *****5,095,524*****
    +63,345 new COVID-19 cases, definite case-reduction over the Friday before, but more evenly spread out.
    Just -2,594 away, TEXAS will go over the 500,000 C19-case-mark today, 2020-08-008.

    There are now 164,094 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,290 of them were recorded on this day.
    USA weekly average = 55,662 new infections & 1,050 deaths per day.
    2,616,967 are recovered (over 50%) / 2,314,463 are still sick, 18,051 of them are in critical condition.

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    At +63,345 new C19 cases, this Friday was still a huge Friday, just less huge than the Friday before. When you look at the new cases table, you will see that the cases are more evenly spread throughout the nation, which is actually a bad sign.

    There is a verifiable reduction in the average daily new C19 cases and then starting on 2020-08-005, there was a slight decrease in average daily deaths. We can hope that this is a trend.

    The actual number of daily deaths, +1,290, is less than 1 of the four Fridays before before but significantly more than the other 3. Editorial note: we should never become numb to the fact that a lot of our fellow countrymen-and-women are dying from this virus every day. Each one of these deaths was surely gruesome and horrible and leaves a destroyed family behind it.


    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - worksheet.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were no unit/rubrik changes on this day.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png

    Just to get some perspective: Worldwide, there are currently 45 nations with over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases, with the USA as a whole having almost 10 times as many cases as that baseline number. But in the USA alone, 27 states have over +50,000 confirmed C19 cases. Now, before you read on, take a minute and think about that data-point.​

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png
    The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

    11 of the 16 states (17 units in total) over +1,000 cases on this day are from the Deep South. Per capita, Mississippi is quickly rising in the ranks among C19 cases and deaths and may actually, percentually, be no. 1 right now. Go see the USA analysis from two days for more information on Mississippi.

    What is interesting here is that no state came over +8,000 new cases (there were days when we have states with between 12,000-15,000 cases, remember) and yet, the USA still came in over +63,000 cases.

    It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from this week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths.png

    For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

    For comparison: worldwide, there are only 12 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 164,094 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of all of CORONA, never to get it back again. Think about that. Yes, that is no joke, there really is a city in the USA with the name CORONA, in California.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

    -200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

    -Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

    -250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

    -286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-08-007 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - extrapolation.png
    This means that currently, we are +1,397 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts a little more than 1.5 days ahead of the milestone-projections.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
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  3. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/08/05/politics/sturgis-biker-rally-supports-trump/index.html

    Booze, crowds, virus, guns and aging bikers is a recipe that probably will not end well for some attendees.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    NO. It is a medical issue and has been so from the day the pandemic broke out.

    I know little kids in the 1st grade who put their hands in front of their eyes and say "neener neener neener, you can't see me". When a little kid does it, we chuckle, because we know it's a little kid.

    When an adult does it, it's just plain old sad.

    Your posting was just plain old sad.
     
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    It's not a matter of doubting the veracity. It's a matter of having 100% scientific proof, data and CHILDREN'S DEATH CERTIFICATES that say that his statement is a bald-faced lie.

    I see that you are engaging in common trolling, and not even well done, at that.

    STRIKE 1.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    If you have not researched it and are not interested in knowing, then why are you here?
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This thread is about COVID-19. I already encouraged you to read the OP, which I wrote.
    If you want to bellyache about censorship, then create a thread. That's how it works here.

    STRIKE 2.
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Oh, Lord.

    Gröööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööööhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
     
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  9. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    You know it's not medical no matter how much you insist that it is it ceased to be when people started politicizing it.
     
  10. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    So take it up with the president I'm not going to defend this comments I don't care.
     
  11. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Speaking of doing the comparison California has now surpassed South Africa's Total Cases AND Total Deaths. That said South Africa is on the cusp of 10k with 9,909 and will cross that death line today.

    Bear in mind that the populations are 41 million versus 59 million and that CA has better healthcare facilities and has done 8.6 million tests compared to just 3.2 million tests in South Africa.

    One other point worth mentioning is that Columbia, Peru and Argentina all had more New Cases than South Africa.

    Too soon to make any definitive conclusions but it appears as though behavior does matter given that South Africa did ban the sale of alcohol again in an attempt to keep their medical resources being overwhelmed with non-Covid cases.

    The old saying of eat, DRINK and be merry for tomorrow we die might apply to this Pandemic.
     
  12. nopartisanbull

    nopartisanbull Well-Known Member

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    Quote; You either support......

    I reject your notion, and here’s why;

    We’re at war against an invisible enemy, and historically, wars have been hard on civil liberties, such as the “unjustified” internment of 60,000 + Japanese American citizens during WW2.

    I’m certainly not a proponent of said extreme internment, however, DURING WARTIME, and in reference to the First Amendment, I believe “We The People” should be REASONABLE.

    And once again, during wartime, INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY and INDIVIDUAL FREEDOM do “contrast” each other, for example;

    Group A

    ......We want limited government, thus, don’t force us/don’t tell us what to do.

    .......We prefer individual freedom over Public Safety.

    Group B

    .......Individual Responsibility; We’re at war against an invisible enemy, both collectively and individually, and “We, The People” are all combatants. Thus, in an effort to prevent/minimize the spread of Covid19, and reduce its death toll, WE MUST act/behave responsibly.

    ........Strong Defence; Today, what are the best weapons to prevent/minimize the spread of Covid19;

    a. Social distancing measures
    b. Wear a mask

    Thus, Mr. Polydectes......

    In an effort to prevent/minimize the spread of Covid19, are you a COMBATANT or a DESERTER?
     
  13. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    How often do I have to correct YOU.
    Krautland = Oh, Wotan
    and
    Groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
     
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  14. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    BRAZIL GOES OVER 100,000 COVID-19 DEATHS
    This just happened:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 Brazil goes over 100000 C19 deaths.png

    [​IMG]

    Yit'gadal, v'yit'k'dash sh'me rabah....

    This means that there are now, as of today, TWO nations on earth with total C19 deaths in the 6-digit-zone: the USA and now, Brazil. And other nations are going to join this very, very unlucky statistic with time..
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    As Deri noted, South Africa is on the cusp of 10,000 COVID-19 deaths and will likely get there today.
     
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  16. Polydectes

    Polydectes Banned

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    Authoritarians always try to justify removing freedoms with safety. People who give up liberty for safety deserve neither.
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2020
  17. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Looks like we are circling around 8% or so. That would put us back down to 700 to 800 deaths a day or 1/4 million a year.
    upload_2020-8-8_19-37-6.png
    Texas has been unstable. Not many tests again, but lots of positives.
    upload_2020-8-8_19-38-34.png
    Just when California looked like they might get it.. Zap, back to 8%.
    upload_2020-8-8_19-39-49.png
    Arizona looking better, but they started from a bad place.
    upload_2020-8-8_19-41-9.png
    It seems like Florida should come down.
    upload_2020-8-8_19-42-36.png
    Hard to tell about Georgia with all the stuff about schools in the news.
    upload_2020-8-8_19-43-45.png
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-007, posted 2020-08-008, 08:47 GMT +2, #11851.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-007, posted 2020-08-008, 09:10 GMT +2, #11852.
    Brazil goes over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, posted 2020-08-008, 20:20 GMT +2, #11866.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Saturday, 2020-08-008 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍********* 19,795,061 *********֍
    +262,529 new C19 cases over the day before.
    There are 149 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.

    BRAZIL went over 3 million confirmed C19 cases and 100,000 C19 deaths on 2020-08-008.
    Our world will likely go over 20 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today, 2020-08-009.

    There have now been 728,795 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,611 of them were on this day.
    S. Africa and Chile both went over 10,000 total C19 deaths on this day.

    Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +255,225 new C19 cases per day and +5,825 deaths per day.

    976 US-American, 875 Indian, 841 Brazilian, 794 Mexican, 301 S. African and 290 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png
    Just 3 days ago as of the writing of this analysis, we passed 19 million C19 cases worldwide and already today, we are only 205,000 away from the 20 million mark.

    In a nutshell: right now, both daily rolling statistics are in flux - receding slightly, expanding slightly. I wouldn't put too much weight on a slight daily shift here or there right now. That being said, it really could be that 2020-07-030 was the peak of this new curve within the first wave.

    The number of daily deaths (5,611) for the day currently being analysed was less than the two Saturdays before but more than the two Saturdays before that - putting this Saturday right in the middle of the 5, from 2020-07-011 to 2020-08-008.


    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik table.png


    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 4 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Malta, S. Africa, Chile and Brazil.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - total cases.png


    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png
    As predicted, Brazil went over 3,000,000 total C19 cases on this day.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    Currently at 165,070 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.65% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.69%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world.
    A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

    Brazil, now with 100,543 total deaths, has, as predicted, crossed over into the 6-digit-death-toll zone to join the USA in that gruesome category on the same day that it also sprang over 3,000,000 total C19 cases. That being said, the 7-day rolling death average for Brazil actually dropped under +1,000 on this day, the first time since 2020-07-002. Here a screenshot of the excel table for Brazil (last 30 days or so):

    [​IMG]

    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 990 per day
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,026 per day

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. After 11 days, Brazil just fell out of that statistic, will likely rejoin it again soon.

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    42 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Malaysia having gone over the 1,000,000-test mark on 2020-08-008; of those 42, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

    With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far. The USA has performed
    64.6 million tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before) while Russia has performed 30.0 million tests (-0- thousand more than the day before). India has completed 23.4 million such tests (700,000 thousand more than the day before). The UK has performed 18.1 million such tests (300,000 thousand more than the day before). Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (-0- thousand more than the day before).

    FACIT: on 2020-08-008, the World travelled from 19.53 million total C19 cases, hopscotching over 19.6 and 19.7 million to land just shy of 19.8 million: 19.795 million cases. The world will likely go over 20 million total C19 by the end of today, 2020-08-009. Yesterday, I predicted that Monday would be the day, but the world jumped more cases on Saturday than I expected would be the case.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
    There were a number of important analyses between the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-007, posted 2020-08-008, 09:10 GMT +2, #11852.
    Brazil goes over 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, posted 2020-08-008, 20:20 GMT +2, #11866.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-008, posted 2020-08-009, 08:10 GMT +2, #11868

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Saturday, 2020-08-008 (EOD = GMT +0):

    *****5,149,723*****
    +54,199 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-reduction over the Saturday before.
    TEXAS went over the 500,000 C19-case-mark on 2020-08-008.

    There are now 165,070 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 976 of them were recorded on this day.
    USA weekly average = 55,058 new infections & 1,025 deaths per day.


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    There is a verifiable reduction in the average daily new C19 cases and then starting on 2020-08-005, there was a slight decrease in average daily deaths. We can hope that this is a trend.

    The actual number of daily deaths, +976, is less than 1 of the four Fridays before before but more than the other 3. I do find it important that the USA slipped under the +1,000 death mark on this Saturday, a hopeful sign.


    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 - rubrik table.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were 2 unit/rubrik changes on this day: TX and CO.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png
    The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

    It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from this week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths.png

    For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

    For comparison: worldwide, there are only 12 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 165,070 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of PORT SAINT LUCIE, never to get it back again. Think about that.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

    -200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

    -Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

    -250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

    -286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-08-008 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png
    This means that currently, we are +1,523 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat less than 2 days ahead of the milestone-projections.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
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  20. Curious Always

    Curious Always Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Sturgis just started their 10-day event. They are expected record crowds; minimum of 250,000. I've been looking at the photos; I haven't spotted a mask, yet.
     
  21. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    THE WORLD GOES OVER 20 MILLION TOTAL COVID-10 CASES.

    As you can see, on Saturday, 2020-06-027 at 20:11 GMT +2 / 18:11 GMT +0 / 14:11 EDT, the world went over 10,000,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases:

    Here once again that screenshot:

    [​IMG]

    And this just happened, on 2020-08-009, between 23:01 and 23:02 GMT +0 / between 19:01 and 19:02 EDT:

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 countdown to 20 million.png

    2020-08-009 COVID-19  20 million.png

    2020-08-009 COVID-19  20 million - excel table.png

    Doubling-time between 10 million and 20 million? 43 days, 3 hours.
     
    Last edited: Aug 9, 2020
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  22. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Todays positives.
    upload_2020-8-9_19-43-42.png
    Texas is still screwy. Not many tests. Lets see what Monday brings.
    It's like they are only testing hot spots.
    upload_2020-8-9_19-45-38.png

    upload_2020-8-9_19-46-57.png
    Same deal in Florida. Testing is down.
    upload_2020-8-9_19-50-0.png
    A glitch in Georgia.
    upload_2020-8-9_19-51-1.png
    The best Arizona has looked in a month. But again, not many tests.
    upload_2020-8-9_19-52-9.png
     
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  23. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Ok, everything about the posting is right EXCEPT my date stamps, which should read 2020-08-009 and NOT 2020-08-008. In my defense, it was 1 AM in the morning, it's almost 100 degrees here and my brain was total mush.

    Mush. Mush. Mush.

    But I think y'all get the point. ON 2020-08-009, our world went over 20,000,000 confirmed C19 cases....
     
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  24. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-008, posted 2020-08-009, 08:10 GMT +2, #11868.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-008, posted 2020-08-009, 08:36 GMT +2, #11869.
    The world goes over 20 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-010, 01:08 GMT +2 / (2020-08-009) 19:08 EDT, #11871.

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-08-009 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ֍֍ 20,016,547 ֍֍
    THE WORLD GOES OVER 20 MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES.

    +221,486 new C19 cases over the day before, largest Sunday haul to-date.
    There are 150 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.

    There have now been 733,607 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,812 of them were on this day.
    Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +255,665 new C19 cases per day and +5,882 deaths per day.
    1,013 Indian, 695 Mexican, 593 Brazilian, 547 US-American and 302 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

    Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

    The number of daily deaths (4,812) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Sundays before.

    Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920.


    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - Rubrik Worktable.png


    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 2 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Jamaica and Egypt.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - total cases.png


    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png

    Currently at 165,617 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.58% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.65%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world.
    A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

    Brazil, now with 101,136 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.79% of all of the C19 deaths in the world. Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.37% of all worldwide C19 deaths.



    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    2020-08-009 was the fourth time that India has had more than +1,000 daily deaths (the last time before was on 2020-07-022), but this was the 3rd or 4th Sunday in a row where India has lead in the daily deaths, over Brazil and the USA.

    Average daily deaths for India (current): 901 per day
    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 1,001 per day
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,036 per day

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. After 11 days, Brazil just fell out of that statistic and rejoined it on 2020-08-009. As you can see, India is also closing in on +1,000 average daily deaths, so it is only a matter of time before at least 3 nations on earth will be suffering 1,000 deaths per day (on the average).

    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    43 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Japan having gone over the 1,000,000-test mark on 2020-08-009; of those 43, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

    With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
    The USA has performed
    65.4 million tests (800,000 more than the day before).
    Russia has performed 30.6 million tests (600,000 more than the day before).
    India has completed 24.1 million such tests (700,000 more than the day before).
    The UK has performed 18.3 million such tests (200,000 more than the day before).
    Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed
    13.2 million such tests (-0- thousand more than the day before).

    FACIT: on 2020-08-009, the World reached the horrifying milestone of 20 million C19 cases, having travelled from 19.795 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 19.8 and 19.9 and 20.0 million to land at 20.02 million.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2020
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ,PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT
    There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-008, posted 2020-08-009, 08:36 GMT +2, #11869.
    The world goes over 20 million C19 cases, posted 2020-08-010, 01:08 GMT +2 / (2020-08-009) 19:08 EDT, #11871.
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-009, posted 2020-08-010, 10:25 GMT +2, #11874.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Sunday, 2020-08-009 (EOD = GMT +0):

    *****5,199,444*****
    +49,721 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-increase over the Sunday before.
    There are now 165,617 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 547 of them were recorded on this day.
    USA weekly average = 55,114 new infections & 1,036 deaths per day.


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    There is a verifiable reduction in the average daily new C19 cases and then starting on 2020-08-005, there was a slight decrease in average daily deaths, until 2020-08-009, where the daily death average rose again. The most accurate way of describing this is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from last Sunday to this one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories.

    Looking into the future, since the world just jumped over 20,000,000 C19 cases, a quote from this morning:

    Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 006 -  rubrik worksheet.png
    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were4 unit/rubrik changes on this day, all in the 100,000 total cases or more category: AL, OH, SC and VA.

    Overall, through this last week, there were some major shifts in the statistical C19 landscape of the USA.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 001 -  total cases.png
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 002 -  total cases.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 003 -  new cases.png
    The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development.

    It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from this week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 005 -  new deaths.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 004 -  total deaths.png

    For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

    For comparison: worldwide, there are only 12 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 165,617 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent all of DEER VALLEY, never to get it back again. Think about that.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the milestones:

    -200,000 deaths on or around 2020-09-20 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).

    -Almost 237,500 deaths on Election Day, 2020-11-003. Without wanting to interject politics in this, no doubt the rising death-toll is going to be one of the top themes of the election, there is no getting around this.

    -250,000 deaths on or around 2020-11-018 (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).

    -286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current:

    2020-08-009 COVID-19 EOD USA 007 -  extrapolation.png
    This means that currently, we are +1,220 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat less than 1.5 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This number is considerably higher than the Sunday before, to note.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
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