Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

6 students/3 staffs, another school, 10 students/2 staffs.

Assumptions;

Average size of school; 1,000 students

Infected students/staffs ratio; 10 to 1

Number of K12 students in the U.S.; 50M

1% of 50M; 500,000

Number of infected students/staffs; 500,000/50,000

HOWEVER....

THE NEXT who’s on first debate....

Who’s infecting who?

Science; Students have mainly infected their staffs.

Trump and his loyalists; NOPE, school staffs have mainly infected their students.

 

Update.....

From several sources

Over 900 students/60 staff quarantined in Georgia

 

I haven't posted charts for a few days because except for Texas it's been pretty quiet.
But today the positives jumped way up. But having said that the number of tests went way down (400,000) with about half of them being from hotspots.


California had a bad day and 25% of the tests.

Texas has be screwy ever since they changed their computer system.

Florida..

Georgia.

The bright spot is Arizona.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-011, posted 2020-08-012, 09:37 GMT +2, #11896.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-011, posted 2020-08-012, 10:00 GMT +2, #11897.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Wednesday, 2020-08-012 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

֍֍ 20,797,382 ֍֍
+285,691 new C19 cases over the day before, third largest overall haul to-date.
A record-shattering 31 nations reported +1,000 (or considerably more) new C19 cases on this day.
There are 152 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 746,411 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +1,495** of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +261,700 new C19 cases per day and +5,161 deaths per day.
1,382 US-American, 1,164 Brazilian, 950 Indian, 926 Mexican & 362 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

**The relatively small rise in daily deaths is due to the fact that the UK has suddenly removed 5,377 deaths from it's registry, a move that reeks of politics and either incompetence or complete dishonesty. The details can be read here. Their rationale for this is... mindboggling. Seriously, it took the brits 5 months to decided that these deaths were suddenly NOT COVID-19 deaths? I of all people DON'T want people to catch C19, much less die from it, but if they do, the least we can do is to be honest about it.

It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

The number of daily deaths (4,509) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Mondays before.

Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 2 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: Bahamas and Japan.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

It's looks very much as if the new-caseload in South Africa is receding, while the new-caseloads in Colombia and Peru continue to increase. A record-breaking 31 nations had +1,000 or considerably more new C19 cases on this day.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 169,131 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.67% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.52%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.7%. Actually, the % rose from the day before, but because the UK suddenly removed more than 5,700 deaths from it's register. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 104,263 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.97% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 14.00%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.64% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

Average daily deaths for India (current): 915 per day
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 978 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,076 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. After 11 days, Brazil just fell out of that statistic and rejoined it on 2020-08-009. As you can see, India is also closing in on +1,000 average daily deaths, so it is only a matter of time before at least 3 nations on earth will be suffering 1,000 deaths per day (on the average).

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

43 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 43, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 67.6 million tests (700,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 31.3 million tests (300,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 26.0 million such tests (800,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 18.9 million such tests (-0- more than the day before).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.2 million such tests (-0- thousand more than the day before).

FACIT: on 2020-08-012, the world travelled from 20.51 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 20.6 and 20.7 million to land just under 20.8 million - at 20.797 million. At this trajectory, the world will go over 21 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today, 2020-08-013.

-Stat

 

UPDATE: that changed, because of this:



Did you read that bullshit? The Brits have decided that if you don't die within 28 days of testing positive, then when you do die, it really wasn't from COVID-19....

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-011, posted 2020-08-012, 10:00 GMT +2, #11897.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-012, posted 2020-08-013, 09:57 GMT +2, #11904.
The UK removes more than 5,700 C19 deaths from its register, posted 2020-08-013, 09:58 GMT +2, #11905.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Wednesday, 2020-08-012 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,360,302*****
+54,345 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-decrease over the Wednesday before.
Currently at 594,808, California will very likely go over 600,000 total C19 cases today, 2020-08-013.
There are now 169,131 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,382 of them were recorded on this day.
Five states reported more than +100 new deaths on this day: FL, TX, CA, AZ and GA.
USA weekly average = 55,248 new infections & 1,076 deaths per day.
Currently, 17,320 C19 cases in the USA are in critical care.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from the Sunday before to to this last one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories.

Looking into the future, since the world jumped over 20,000,000 C19 cases just the day before, a rather long quote from the world-wide analysis for 2020-08-009:

"It took our world circa 4 months, or 16 weeks (End of December, 2019 until 2020-04-002) to get to the first 1,000,000 C19 cases. It took 86 days, or roughly 12 weeks (from 2020-04-002 to 2020-06-027) to get from 1,000,000 to 10,000,0000 to 20,000,000 cases. It then took only 43 days or roughly 6 weeks (from 2020-06-027 to 2020-08-009) for the world to double from 10,000,000 to 20,000,000 C19 cases.

Assuming an average of +250,000 new C19 cases per day for a good long while now, assuming slight ups and downs, but on the average, 250,000, that means 1 million cases every four days. 20 *4 = 80. So, very simple, back-of-the-envelope math: in 80 days, or right around the end of October, 2020, we should have doubled from 20,000,000 to 40,000,000 (FOURTY MILLION) C19 cases.

The number of daily deaths (4,509) for the day currently being analysed was more than the 4 Mondays before.

Similar, back of the envelope calculation for the number of deaths until the end of October: the current average is +5,882 deaths per day. If we set the meter at only +5,600 deaths per day, * 80 days = an additional 448,000 deaths worldwide, making for a total of 1,181,607 (1,182,000) total deaths at the time that the world will hit 40,000,000 cases. This would be preferable than maintaining the current death rate of 3.67%. 40,000,000 * 0,0367 = 1,468,000 deaths. Either way, by the end of this year, we are pretty much guaranteed, in absence of a viable vaccine, 1.5 million C19 deaths worldwide, which is far, far, FAR more than the normal "flu" has wrought upon our world in one year, excepting of course the Flu pandemic of 1918-1920."

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There were no unit/rubrik changes on this day.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. This time, Kentucky is on the +1,000 list.

It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from last week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again in the next weeks. In California, it is already happening.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 169,131 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent or more than all of HOLLYWOOD or most all of JACKSON, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +2,184 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat more than 2.5 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (604), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

One thing I haven't been mentioning, or simply re-noting, is that India has grown massively in +C19 daily cases. Yesterday, it was not far from +70,000 and was way ahead of both the USA and Brazil. Also, India is getting closer and closer to +1,000 deaths per day, putting it in the position to soon take the lead as the world's major hotspot for the virus.

Cases in the USA, at least on paper, are receding. Deaths are not. Similar story for Brazil. And Colombia is clocking more than +10,000 cases a day pretty regularly now.

South Africa gives the impression that the wave is passing - wait and see.

 

And not to rain on anyone's parade, but New Zealand, which declared itself COVID-19 free a number of weeks ago, just reported +10 new C19 cases.
Also, Thailand (not pronounced: THIGHLAND) has reported +3 new cases and Vietnam has reported +1 death.

Also, the Turks and Caicos Islands (a British protectorate, still under the Queen), due north of & situated between Cuba and Haiti/Dominican Republic, just reported +17 new cases, bringing the Island-chain up to all of 241 total C19 cases, a +7.6% growth rate. That doesn't sound too impressive, but the total population of both Islands combined is less than 32,000.

 

Not even chicken wings are sacred these days:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-chicken-wings-brazil-china/




Bräääääääck, Bräääääääääck!

 

The virus is practically a fatty globule. Fats adhere strongly to plastics such as plastic bags, polythene wrapping, plastic coated food cartons etc and can stay liquified for a long period of time on these surfaces. This was well publicised at the start of the pandemic and people were encouraged to wash items when brought home. But people are not doing this anymore.

I still wash any plastic packaged goods I purchase. I also leave the soap on the packaging instead of wiping it off. Soap is good at destroying the fatty virus membrane. A simple fast method to kill the virus.

 

The virus was found on the packaging and the chicken inside. It used to be common to process chicken with a chlorine solution. Not so common now. Time to bring it back, before and after it goes into the package.

Brazil also has a high incidence of salmonella contamination in chicken.

 

We may have been protecting the kids better than the adults.

Up to July 9, just over 200,000 cases of COVID-19 had been diagnosed in kids and young people in the U.S. in total. But from July 9 through Aug. 6, an additional 179,990 pediatric cases were reported — an increase of 90 percent in just four weeks.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/why-are-covid-19-cases-kids-rising-it-s-mostly-n1236496

 

Thanks, Captain Sunshine. (Kidding.) This is beyond horrifying. I don't even have words right now. I just got a bad adrenaline rush, reading that. Yes, most kids recover, but we've no way of knowing the long term damage this may cause. These people are our future.

We need to scream from the rooftops with megaphones, to be sure that parents with at-risk kids do the right thing. The anti-science crowd has won. We know that.

I'm going to go be sad, now.

 

Kids or grandkids?
Where?

 

We're in Florida. 26 and 21, no grandkids, yet.

Our youngest has autism, and is struggling to get through HS. He's doing all online starting next week. He should be done by January. (fingers crossed.) Not a chance we're letting him go in.

 

Things are kind of back to normal.
Twice as many tests today. A lot of them in Texas.

 

Stay safe. I'm in Arizona, mostly, but the kids and grandkids are in Colorado. Colorado is down to about 4 or 5% positives.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-012, posted 2020-08-013, 09:57 GMT +2, #11904.
The UK removes more than 5,300 C19 deaths from its register, posted 2020-08-013, 09:58 GMT +2, #11905.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-012, posted 2020-08-013, 10:20 GMT +2, #11906.

Blackjack, anyone?​

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Thursday, 2020-08-013 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
THE WORLD GOES OVER 21 MILLION CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES

֍֍* 21,057,788 *֍֍
+260,406 new C19 cases over the day before.
2nd day in a row: 31 nations reported +1,000 (or considerably more) new C19 cases on this day.
There are 152 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 756,719 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +10,318 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +258,717 new C19 cases per day and +5,710 deaths per day.
Three nations reported over +1,000 new deaths:
1,301 Brazilian, 1,284 US-American, 1,006 Indian, 737 Mexican & 308 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide has risen sharply to: 64,617
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (10,308) for the day currently being analysed was considerably more than the 4 Thursdays before.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 1 nation-rubrik-jumps on this day: India.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

Mexico will cross over the 500,000-line today, 2020-08-014.

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

It's looks very much as if the new-caseload in South Africa is receding, while the new-caseloads in Colombia and Peru continue to increase. A record-breaking 31 nations had +1,000 or considerably more new C19 cases on this day.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 170,415 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.52% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before, it was 22.67% and the the day before that, it was 22.52%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.5%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 105,564 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.95% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 13.97%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.47% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. Mexico is currently ahead of India, but India is accruing more deaths per day on the average than Mexico, so, soon India will surpass Mexico. I suspect that both will reach 100,000 total deaths within days of each other.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

Average daily deaths for India (current): 929 per day
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 989 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1,087 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. After 11 days, Brazil just fell out of that statistic and rejoined it on 2020-08-009. As you can see, India is also closing in on +1,000 average daily deaths, so it is only a matter of time before at least 3 nations on earth will be suffering 1,000 deaths per day (on the average).

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

43 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 43, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 68.5 million tests (900,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 31.6 million tests (300,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 26.8 million such tests (800,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 18.9 million such tests (-0- more than the day before).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.5 million such tests (300,000 more than the day before).

FACIT: on 2020-08-013, the world travelled from 20.797 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 20.8, 20.9 and 21.0 million to land at 21.06 million. At this trajectory, the world will go over 22 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Monday, 2020-08-017.

-Stat

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-012, posted 2020-08-013, 10:20 GMT +2, #11906.
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-013, posted 2020-08-014, 09:45 GMT +2, #11919.

COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for EOD on Thursday, 2020-08-013 (EOD = GMT +0):

*****5,415,666*****
+54,364 new COVID-19 cases, a slight case-decrease over the Thursday before.
California went over 600,000 total C19 cases on 2020-08-013, with Florida and Texas not far behind.
There are now 170,415 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 1,284 of them were recorded on this day.
USA weekly average = 54,784 new infections & 1,087 deaths per day.
Currently, 17,239 C19 cases in the USA are in critical care.

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

The most accurate way of describing what is going on with the daily averages is simply to say that the averages for the USA are currently in-flux. I would not put too much stock in one or the other daily variation, but rather, keep my eyes on the weekly average. In this case, the weekly average shift from the Sunday before to to this last one shows a verifiable reduction in both categories. However, in the daily death averages, it looks as if this week's average, when it is calculated after Sunday, will be on the rise.

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that translates to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was 1 unit/rubrik changes on this day, in: IA.

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:​

With California having crossed over the 600,000 total C19 case-line, it would be helpful to see where that state would rank in the worldwide standings, were it an independent nation:



As you can see, with 602,684 total COVID-19 cases and only 397,316 away from the million-mark., California would be rank 5 worldwide, behind the USA, Brazil, India and Russia, but AHEAD of South Africa, Peru, Mexico and Colombia. Now, here's the real kicker: if California averages only +6,000 new C19 cases per day, then it will hit the 1,000,000 mark around October 19th, 2020, in 66 days. Not only that, both Florida and Texas are not far behind California. There is the real possiblity and VERY high probability that the 3 largest US states will hit 1,000,000 C19 cases by election day, 2020.​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
​

The top states are also in the worksheet, so you can see their daily development. For the third time, Indiana is on the +1,000-list.

A small but important detail: either Hawaii has really ramped up testing or there has been a sudden outbreak because Hawaii, with only 4,312 total cases, just recorded +354 of them on 2020-08-013. That's a growth rate of 8.94% from 2020-08-012 to 2020-08-013. This is also important when you consider that Hawaii has had a flight-ban in place for a good while now.

It should also be noted that the inclement weather in the East and the wildfires in the West have surely slowed down the testing from last week: do not be surprised if the +numbers in cases picks up again by next week. In California, it is already happening.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:​

​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
​

For more than 3 months now, it was only New York and New Jersey, so incredibly hard hit by the pandemic right at the beginning of the wave, that went over 10,000 total deaths. On 2020-08-006, California joined that miserable statistic and looking at the numbers coming out of Texas and Florida, etc, I can't promise that California will be the last state to cross over the 10,000 death line. Currently at 9,503 total deaths, assuming only +100 deaths per day, well under Florida's average, then in 5 days, Florida will go over the 10,000-death line.

For comparison: worldwide, there are only 14 nations with 10,000 deaths or more, the USA is of course, the top of those 12.​

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FACIT: we ended the day and the month analysed with 170,415 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 151,700-171,300:



This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of almost all of JACKSON, never to get it back again. Think about that.

ADJUSTED EXTRAPOLATION (started on 2020-08-001)​

As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

At current:


This means that currently, we are +2,618 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us somewhat more than 3 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is considerably higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+957), to note.

IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

-Stat

 

Germany has a problem with the vacation returnees. 1/3 of the cases are returnees, according to RKI.
A screw up in Bavaria, were they have test station along the Autobahn, a low tech meet high tech screw up.
The people filled out paper forms, which than were hand typed into the computer system, some 40,000 or so, which caused huge delays and over 800 positive were not instantly informed.

 

THE PANDEMIC: EXPLOSIVE COVID-19 GROWTH IN ISRAEL - UPDATE​

When I wrote the small Israel report 12 days ago, Israel stood on that day at: 72,582 C19 cases, 534 deaths.

Today:



Israel now stands at 91,080 C19 cases (-8,920 away from 100,000) and 685 deaths, so in the 12 days from 2020-08-002 to 2020-08-014, Israel has reported an additional 18,496 (making for a daily average of: 1,541 per day) and +129 deaths. Assuming that Israel maintains this pace of about 1,541 cases per day on the average, then in 6 days, on 2020-08-020, Israel will go over the 100,000 mark. Naturally, Ecuador, Bolivia and Egypt, all of which are ahead of Israel in the rankings, will surely also go over the 100,000 line before then.

This means that my initial projection of Israel getting to 100,000 at the end of this month was a somewhat conservative projection.

-State

 

^^^^^
Revenge of the children.

 

Kind of a ho hum day.

I hope Arizona doesn't level off.

 

PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

There were some important analyses from the last worldwide analysis to this one:
Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-08-013, posted 2020-08-014, 09:45 GMT +2, #11919.
USA EOD analysis for 2020-08-013, posted 2020-08-014, 10:19 GMT +2, #11920.
Israel update, posted 2020-08-014, 23:01 GMT +2, #11922.

COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Friday, 2020-08-014 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
THIS THREAD IS NOW EXACTLY FIVE MONTHS OLD

֍֍* 21,345,271 *֍֍
+287,483 new C19 cases over the day before, 3rd largest case haul for any day to-date.
A record-breaking 32 nations reported +1,000 (or considerably more) new C19 cases on this day.
There are 152 nations with at least 1,000 COVID-19 cases, 82 of them with at least 10,000 COVID-19 cases.
There have now been 762,664 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +5,945 of them were on this day.
Worldwide 7-day rolling averages: +258,963 new C19 cases per day and +5,640 deaths per day.
1,120 US-American, 1,007 Brazilian, 990 Indian, 627 Mexican & 347 Colombian deaths were recorded on this day.
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 64,591
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STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020. Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the link for 2020-08-012.

The number of daily deaths (5,945) for the day currently being analysed was LESS than the 4 Fridays before.

The 4-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There 1 nation-rubrik-jump on this day: Paraguay

It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.

Total cases per country, descending (countries with circa +300 C19 cases and above):
​

Mexico crossed over the 500,000-line on 2020-08-014.

Exactly 5 months ago, on 2020-03-014, I started this thread and so I thought it would be good to once again look at the WorldOMeter listing for that day (not nearly as extensive as what I do these days):



For perspective, on that day, China, with less than 81,000 total cases, was rank 1, the USA, with less than 2,500 cases, was rank 8 and the cruise ship DIAMOND PRINCESS, with 696 cases, was rank 26. As of 2020-08-014, with almost 5.5 million cases, the USA is rank 1, and while a little over 84,000 cases, China is now rank 32 and the cruise ship DIAMOND PRINCESS is now rank: 160. In March, Brazil, India, Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Peru and South Africa were on literally noone's radar....

In terms of the countries with the most new cases:​

It's looks very much as if the new-caseload in South Africa is receding, while the new-caseloads in Colombia and Peru continue to increase. A record-breaking 32 nations had +1,000 or considerably more new C19 cases on this day.​

In terms of total deaths per country, descending:​

​

Currently at 171,535 total deaths, the USA, which just went over the 150,000-death-milestone on 2020-07-027, is circa 4% of the world's population but yet, 22.49% of all worldwide deaths have come from the USA (the day before it was 22.52%). If you have been reading this text carefully over the last many weeks, you will see that the USA's % of worldwide deaths has receded from over 25.5% to now 22.5%. The rate of dying in the USA is not really slowing down, but it is picking up elsewhere across the world. A extrapolation pointing to almost 290,000 total US deaths by the end of this year is now currently running within the USA analyses.

Brazil, now with 105,564 total deaths, which crossed over the 100,000-line in total deaths on 2020-08-008, is about 1.4% of the world's population, but 13.97% of all of the C19 deaths in the world (the day before, it was 13.95%). Put together, the death toll from the top two nations (USA, Brazil) = 36.46% of all worldwide C19 deaths.

Both India and Mexico are marching toward the 100,000-total-death line rather quickly. Mexico is currently ahead of India, but India is accruing more deaths per day on the average than Mexico, so, soon India will surpass Mexico. I suspect that both will reach 100,000 total deaths within days of each other.

In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
​

Average daily deaths for India (current): 937 per day
Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 981 per day
Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 1063 per day

2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then.

In terms of Total Tests administered per country:​

44 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece, with Austria having gone over the 1,000,000-test-line on 2020-08-014; of those 44, 6 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India and Brazil. Currently at 8.6 million total tests, Germany is next to cross over the 10-million line.

With 90.4 million COVID-19 tests, China leads the field by far.
The USA has performed 69.4 million tests (900,000 more than the day before).
Russia has performed 31.9 million tests (300,000 more than the day before).
India has completed 27.7 million such tests (900,000 more than the day before).
The UK has performed 14.1 million such tests (-4.8 MILLION LESS than the day before, seriously, WTF is wrong with the UK???).
Brazil, which is now rank 2 among all nations both in terms of COVID-19 infections and total deaths, has performed 13.5 million such tests (-0- more than the day before).

FACIT: on 2020-08-014, the world travelled from 21.06 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 21.1, 21.2 and 21.3 million to land at 21.35 million. At this trajectory, the world will go over 22 million confirmed COVID-19 cases on Monday, 2020-08-017.

-Stat