Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

Discussion in 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) News' started by Statistikhengst, Mar 14, 2020.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I wanted to relate an amazing story of self-governance, at least in my part of Germany.

    Last week, the provincial government of North-Rhein-Westfalia decided that as of tomorrow, it is no longer necessary for students to wear masks in classrooms, a move that has caused literally every single sensible adult to shake their head in disbelief.

    More than 99% of schools here said in response: "thank you but no thank you, we will continue to wear masks at all times".

    My daughter's 8th grade class took a vote on whether they would be willing to continue wearing masks all day long and to a man, they all voted YES.

    She says to me that she and her school friends have started to adjust to mask-wearing quite well.

    The Rector at her High School (Gymnasium, it is called) will be taking a vote among the faculty about this every 2 weeks for a while.

    Fortunately for us, no one at her Gymnasium has (to anyone's knowledge) tested positive for C19, but there are a number of cases at a Joint Vocational School (called "Realschule") just 100 meters away from her Gymnasium (pronounced: Gim- naaaaa-zium).

    We are simply taking it one day at a time here. But I am pleased to report that literally everywhere I go, people in Bonn, Germany are behaving maturely vis-a-vis mask-wearing. They are literally ALL wearing masks.

    As a gesture of friendship and realizing that sometimes, people forget their masks, a couple of German policemen are now stationed at the main tram station with a couple of boxes of throwaway masks for people who realize they forgot their mask and need one. I walked by one of them last Wednesday and asked him how it is working out. He said to me: "same three boxes as last week, no one needs a temporary mask, I've given out just 3 masks in the last week."

    THIS IS PEAK 2020
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2020
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This is mind-blowing, in the wake of a worldwide pandemic.
     
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  3. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Fantastic. That's what happens when a population is well-educated and civilized, unlike our covidiots here in the US. Congratulations to the Germans.
     
  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    INDIA REPORTS +91,724 new COVID-19 cases today, once again breaking it's worldwide record from the day before.


    Sigh:

    2020-09-006  COVID-19 India reports plus 91,723 new C19 cases.png

    And the excel table:

    2020-09-006  COVID-19 India reports plus 91,723 new C19 cases - excel table.png

    Just two days ago, India went over the 4,000,000-mark and now, it is already over 4.2 million.

    This is now day 5 of +80,000 (or considerably more) CA19 cases in India and in the last 5 days, India has grown a total of +436,448 C19 cases. That is more cases than Chile has acquired over the entire year to-date and also means that India has been breaking and setting worldwide records for 5 days straight.

    India is now firmly rank 2 among the nations in the COVID-19 total case rankings and is 2.2 million cases behind the USA. But watch out, a lot can happen in September and October. I fully expect India to overtake the USA in total cases as well, it's just a matter of time.

    You might also notice that today is the 6th day in a row where India has reported at least +1,000,000 more performed C19 tests, leaving all other nations in the dust right now. It is also day 2 of rolling-average of at least 1,000 deaths per day.

    Right now, India is leading the world in almost every rubrik, except in total cases.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2020
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This does not mean that all Germans are behaving this way, but where I live, things are going as well as can be expected.
     
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  6. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I know, there's been 10,000 to 20,000 protesters in Berlin against the government's efforts to curb the virus.
     
  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, there's a crazy-assed group kind of like the whackadoodle "sovereign citizens" in the USA. They call themselves "Reichsbürger" (Citzens of the Reich...). It was only a matter of time before they would show their ugly faces.
     
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  8. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Are they more prevalent in Berlin? I love your country, which I've visited many times for pleasure and for work. But I confess that I don't like Berlin that much. I felt a sort of oppressive vibe there, unlike Munich for example.
     
  9. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Israel is partially locking down again. They divided areas in four levels of spread, from green (least) to red (most) and are restarting some lockdown measures for the red areas, and considering locking down the whole country again. Like Spain, another case of the reopening leading to a relapse in high levels of contagion. This is actually discouraging. It suggests that this virus just can't be contained by epidemiological measures except for strict lockdowns which come with an intolerable economic cost. We really need those vaccines.
     
  10. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    What other vaccines have been made this way?
     
  11. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    Not sure we aren't traveling down the same road.

    The lesson, experts say, is that even communities that have gotten the spread of the virus under control need to take strict precautions when reopening schools. Smaller classes, mask wearing, keeping desks six feet apart and providing adequate ventilation, they say, are likely to be crucial until a vaccine is available.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/world/middleeast/coronavirus-israel-schools-reopen.html
     
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  12. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    My thread on vaccines has extensive explanations about every platform and what previous vaccines have used.

    http://www.politicalforum.com/index.php?threads/the-state-of-the-vaccines.576983/

    But if you mean what vaccines have used the mRNA approach before, none. No human mRJA vaccine has ever been approved. But this should't discourage people. No man had been to the Moon, until we did send some there.
     
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  13. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Definitely. And more. I once posted here a long list of measures that would help with school safety; I included all the ones you've mentioned above, then some.
     
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  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    TBF I trust the Chinese fractionally more than Putin but that is not saying much given that neither are genuinely trustworthy IMO.

    That said I have zero trust in our own leadership here in the USA so at this point we are all pretty much screwed. Might actually be better off living in the Antipodes instead where they do seem to have their act mostly together when it comes to keeping the virus under control.

    And to be fair it looks like both Russia and China are going the old school vaccine route and just taking shortcuts to get it into production sooner. Expertise and manufacturing for old school vaccines is plentiful in China so I can seem them being generous to their BRICS partners, like Brazil, while making America pay a steep price if they want it. Putin would use the Russian one to boost the election chances of the Covidiot-in-Chief if he believed that it would alter the outcome of the election but it would be a tough sell politically.

    The RNA based vaccines are the ones that require the additional testing IMO and the middle of a global pandemic might not be a good time to try and foist something brand new on a population like ours that is already skeptical of the general efficacy of vaccines. If there are any negative side effects the anti-vaccers will have a field day using it as ammunition to support their position.

    In essence we are between a rock and a hard place largely because of the gross incompetence of the bad joke we have cowering in the Oval office. When I look back at how the Swine Flu and Ebola epidemics were handled with minimal disruption and zero theatrics it reminds what it was like to have ADULTS in charge.

    So at this point in time with the IHME predicting fatalities north of 400k by the end of the year and no reasonable expectation of an efficacious vaccine on the horizon I suspect that we are a long way from seeing the light at the end of this dark tunnel.
     
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were some important analyses from and including the last worldwide analysis to this one:
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-005, posted 2020-09-006, 09:15 GMT +2, #12227.
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-005, posted 2020-09-006, 09:35 GMT +2, #12228.
    India reports slightly less than +92,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-006, #12252

    COVID-19 worldwide statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-09-006 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):
    THIS WEEK WAS "INDIA-WEEK"


    ֍֍******* 27,283,718 *******֍֍
    AMONG THE NATIONS: INDIA IS NOW FIRMLY RANK 2 IN TOTAL CASES & RANK 1 IN NEW DAILY CASES/DEATHS.

    +229,531 new C19 cases over the day before, more than the Sunday before.
    There are 163 nations with at least 1,000 total COVID-19 cases, 91 of them with at least 10,000 total COVID-19 cases.

    INDIA records almost +92,000 new cases, 3 times the USA +cases, setting a new worldwide record for the 5th day in a row.
    There have now been 887,305 COVID-19 deaths worldwide, +4,129 of them were on this day.
    Worldwide weekly rolling averages: +272,188 new C19 cases per day / +5,306 deaths per day.
    +1,008 Indian, +475 Mexican, +456 Brazilian, +432 US-American +256 Colombian new deaths were recorded.
    The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 60,028 (-821 over the day before)

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 000.png

    The world ended this week just under 27.3 million total C19 cases.

    The 7-day rolling averages and also the permanent weekly average in cases is INCREASING but in average in deaths is DECREASING.

    The number of daily deaths (4,129) for the day currently being analysed was less than the 4 Sundays before.

    A number of major numerical events in C19 history happened in this week, dubbed by me as "India-Week":

    -Russia crossed over the 1 million mark on 2020-09-001, making it the fourth nation in the "Million Club".
    -Brazil crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-002.
    -India crossed over the 4,000,000 mark on 2020-09-004.
    -India achieved a rolling 7-day average of over +1,000 daily deaths on 2020-09-005, for the very first time and maintained that average on 2020-09-006.
    -India overtook Brazil in total C19 cases on 2020-09-006 and is now rank 2 among the nations, behind the USA.

    When you consider that India has almost 1.4 billion citizens and more slums than anywhere else in the entire world, it was only a matter of time before that nation would ramp up testing and discover oodles and oodles of cases. Caught firmly behind the 8-ball, just as happened in the USA, India is now paying the price in massive deaths per day.
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 009 - rubrik table.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (in the title), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. Almost all of the text below this will now disappear. There was/were 0 nation-rubrik-jump(s) on this day. In total, there were 12 nation-rubrik-jump(s) thoughout the entire week.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of countries that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.


    Total cases per country, descending (this time, countries with circa +500 C19 cases and above):
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 001 - total cases.png
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 002 - total cases.png
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 003 - total cases.png
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 004 - total cases.png
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 005 - total cases.png


    India watch, margin behind Brazil:

    2020-08-023: -500,598
    2020-08-024: -462,749. Margin reduction over 2020-08-023 = 37,849
    2020-08-025: -442,042. Margin reduction over 2020-08-024 = 20,327
    2020-08-026: -414,025. Margin reduction over 2020-08-025 = 27,787
    2020-08-027: -379,918. Margin reduction over 2020-08-026 = 34,107
    2020-08-028: -351,365. Margin reduction over 2020-08-027 = 28,533
    2020-08-029: -307,253. Margin reduction over 2020-08-028 = 44,112
    2020-08-030: -243,132. Margin reduction over 2020-08-029 = 64,121
    I did an independent India/Brazil analysis on 2020-08-031 for 2020-08-030: India vs. Brazil total C19 case margin extrapolation/prediction, update from one week ago, posted 2020-08-031, 11:31 GMT +2, #12173.
    2020-08-031: -222,962. Margin reduction over 2020-08-030 = 20,170
    2020-09-001: -186,682. Margin reduction over 2020-08-031 = 36,280
    2020-09-002: -152,454. Margin reduction over 2020-09-001 = 34,228
    2020-09-003: -113,026. Margin reduction over 2020-09-002 = 39,428
    2020-09-004: -71,562. Margin reduction over 2020-09-003 = 41,464
    2020-09-005: -12,161. Margin reduction over 2020-09-004 = 59,401
    2020-09-006: +64,656. Margin swing for India over 2020-09-004 = +77,117

    In just 14 days time, India closed the gap to Brazil and then pulled ahad from -500,598 to +77,117. That is an enormous gap reduction and a swing of of more than one-half-million.

    So, that's the last day to report on this. It's only a matter of a week or so and India will already be on it's way to +1,000,000 in front of Brazil.

    In case you are wondering why I took the time to write this all out: -math is real and doesn't lie- and observing trends is good for our brains.


    In terms of the countries with the most new cases:

    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 006 - new cases.png

    For the fifth day in a row, India broke the worldwide +cases record: on 2020-09-002 with over +82,000, then on 2020-09-003 with over +84,000, then on 2020-09-004 with over +87,000, then on 2020-09-005 with +90,600 and now, on 2020-09-006 with just under +92,000.

    The actual new case load for the USA is: +29,098 (discrepancy with WorldOMeter, see link at the top of the analysis) which means that India's daily new case count was THREE TIMES higher than the USA's.

    Again, 6 of the 10 top nations in +cases are from the Americas.

    Also, Ukraine saw a large jump in +cases.

    Morocco is on the +1,000 list, I believe, for the 3rd time in total (non-consecutive)

    It sure looks as if, with these numbers, France may very well be heading into a 2nd lockdown. Ditto Spain.

    In terms of total deaths per country, descending:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 007 - total deaths.png
    The top 4:

    USA, total deaths: 193,250 / 21.78% of worldwide deaths (21.84% the day before), -15,204 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 1,045 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-09-012.

    Brazil, total deaths: 126,686 / 14.28% of worldwide deaths (14.29% the day before, for the 2nd time), -81,274 from the 200,000-death-line. Extrapolated 200,000 death date, based on the daily average of 938 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-11-022.

    India, total deaths: 71,687 / 8.08% of worldwide deaths (8.00% the day before), -38,306 from the 100,000-death-line. Extrapolated 100,000 death date, based on the daily average of 948 per day, from 2020-08-026: 2020-10-007. India overtook Mexico in total deaths on 2020-08-028.

    Mexico, total deaths: 67,326 / 7.59% of worldwide deaths (7.55% the day before), -37,924 from the 100,000-death-line. extrapolated 100,000 death date: 2020-10-021.

    Combined (458,949), the top four nations currently represent 51.72% of all total deaths in the world to-date (51.71% the day before).


    In terms of the countries with the most daily deaths:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD Worldwide 008 - new deaths.png

    When you look at the rolling averages for the top 3 nations:

    Average daily deaths for Brazil (current): 827 per day (the day before: 819)
    Average daily deaths for the USA (current): 861 per day (the day before: 852)
    Average daily deaths for India (current): 1,010 per day (the day before: 1,003)

    2020-07-028 (Tuesday) was the first time ever that 2 nations simultaneously reached a rolling daily death average of over +1,000, reaching a new, unwanted milestone in C19 history. Brazil has fallen in and out of the statistic now and then. It's only a matter of time before the three largest C19 countries will have continuous daily death averages of +1,000 or more. The USA had over +1,000 daily deaths on the average for 31 continuous days. That streak was broken on 2020-08-028.

    India reached a rolling 7-day death average of +1,000 (or more) for the first time on 2020-09-005 and maintained it on 2020-09-006.


    In terms of Total Tests administered per country:

    51 nations have now administered more than 1 million tests apiece; of those 51, 7 nations have performed more than 10 million apiece: China, the USA, Russia, UK, India, Brazil and Germany. Currently both at 9.2 million total tests, respectively, Italy and Spain are next to cross over the 10-million line.

    BIG NOTE: WorldOMeter has made some changes and so have I. As of 2020-08-017, you can see the exact number of total administered cases and the numeric change over the day before for the 4 major countries I am tracking individually (USA, Brazil, india, Russia) at the online excel table-tabs themselves. If you want to see the exact performed case counts, please refer to WorldOMeter or in the case of the top nations, check out my excel-tables.



    FACIT: on 2020-09-006, the world travelled from 27.05 million total C19 cases the day before, hopscotching over 27.1 and 27.2 million to land at 27.28 million. With this sudden increase in daily cases, at this trajectory, the world will most likely go over 28 million confirmed COVID-19 on Wednesday, 2020-09-009.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2020
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  16. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    PERMANENT DISCLAIMER -AND- 4-RUBRIK WORKSHEET IN LIEU OF WALL-OF-TEXT

    There were a number of important analyses between -and including- the last USA analysis and this one:
    USA EOD analysis for 2020-09-005, posted 2020-09-006, 09:35 GMT +2, #12228.
    India reports slightly less than +92,000 new C19 cases, posted 2020-09-006, #12252
    Worldwide EOD analysis for 2020-09-006, posted 2020-09-007, 09:29 GMT +2, #12265.

    COVID-19 in the USA: statistical analysis for Sunday, 2020-09-006 (GMT +0 - Greenwich = 20:00 EDT):

    ****** 6,460,250 ******
    +29,098 new COVID-19 cases, less +cases than on the Sunday before, lowest +case-load since 2020-06-018.
    There are now 193,250 total COVID-19 deaths in the USA, 432 of them were recorded on this day.

    The USA is now -6,750 away from a total of 200,000 officially recorded, certified COVID-19 deaths.
    USA 7-day rolling average = 41,002 new infections & 861 deaths per day.
    Rolling averages: the USA is now firmly under both +50,000 new infections / +1,000 deaths per day.
    14,681 C19 cases in the USA are listed in critical care (-261 over the day before).
    TOTAL PERFORMED C19 tests: 87.5 million


    STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 000.png

    The USA ended this week just under 6.46 million total C19 cases.


    There were more deaths on this day (432) than on the 2 Sundays before but less than the 2 Sundays before that.

    In the weekly averages, we see a slight DECREASE in the average daily cases but a stark DECREASE in daily deaths.

    In the worldwide analysis for 2020-08-012 (and on a number of days before then), I began to project that the world will double from 20 million to 40 million C19 cases by the end of October, 2020 (the world just sprang over 27 million cases on 2020-09-005). Also, I project roughly 1.2-1.4 million total worldwide deaths by the end of this year. The details for the math behind this you can read at the worldwide analysis link for 2020-08-012.

    Using the same back-of-the-envelope math as I did for the world, assuming that the USA continues to be about 26% of all the world's C19 cases and about 22% of all of the world's C19 deaths, then that would have translated to 10.4 million C19 cases and 260,000 C19 deaths in the USA at the end of October, 2020, shortly before the General Election. However, (this note is as of 2020-08-030), the rate of daily cases has clearly slowed down in the USA and it looks more as if we will be working on 9 million instead of 10 million come election day. To be clear, that sum of 260,000 is greater than my extrapolation for end of October at the bottom of this analysis. Likely, the actual deaths will be somewhere between the two at that time.


    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 007 -rubrik worktable.png

    By clicking on the hyperlink (directly above this screenshot), you can learn to interpret the worksheet. There was/were 0 unit/rubrik change(s) on this day. In total, there were 2 unit-rubrik-jump(s) thoughout the entire week.

    The rubrik table for "total cases, 1,000 or more", the number "57" is locked-in (highlighted in purple), since it cannot possibly go any higher. You will also see that in total deaths and new deaths, I have already fed in the value for highest numeric category since there is no way week that those numbers will be reached at the current time.

    It could be helpful for your eyes to look at Monday for each rubrik and then, later in the week, jump to the day being analysed to see the mathematical difference in the number of Units that have joined that particular rubrik during this week.



    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total confirmed C19 cases, descending:

    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 001 - total cases.png
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 002 - total cases.png

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily cases:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 003 - new cases.png


    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, new daily deaths:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 005 - new deaths.png

    I find it good news to see that for this day, we were down to zero states with over 100 C19 deaths, a welcome respite.

    COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total deaths:
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 004 - total deaths.png
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    FACIT: we ended the day analysed with 193,250 total US deaths from COVID-19. To make this more personal and also easier to visualize, from the listing of the projected 2020 population of US-American cities, here a screenshot of cities with a projected population of between circa 171,500-197,500:

    [​IMG]

    This means that we have currently lost the equivalent of more than all of SALT LAKE CITY, or just somewhat less than the population of MOBILE, never to get the one or the other back again. Think about that. The city at the top of this screenshot, Akron (OH) is near and dear to my heart. I lived and studied (Masters Degree) there for a number of years.


    As of 2020-08-001, I adjusted the extrapolation upward from an estimated average +700 deaths per day (from 2020-06-001 through 2020-07-031) to an estimated average of +850 deaths per day in the USA. Here the current projected milestones:

    2020-09-020: 200,000 deaths (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-10-013).
    2020-11-003 (Election Day): 237,500 deaths
    2020-11-018: 250,000 deaths
    (the old extrapolation projected: 2020-12-023).
    2020-12-031: 286,697 deaths on New Years Eve, 2020 going into 2021.

    At current, the table for August, then the table for September:

    [​IMG]
    2020-09-006  COVID-19 EOD USA 006 - extrapolation.png

    This means that we are currently at +5,053 deaths over the extrapolation, which puts us also currently 6 days ahead of the milestone-projections. This value is higher than the corresponding day in the week before (+4,977), to note. If this range holds, is reduced to par or even goes under par as of today, 2020-09-007, then the USA will still most definitely surpass 200,000 deaths by 2020-09-014 or 2020-09-015 instead of the extrapolated date of 2020-09-020, in 9-10 days from and including today, because by the time the USA average would come well under the extrapolated +850 per day, it will take some days of days for that to happen, and 6 days into the future are currently already "baked" in. This is the entire reason for doing and critically watching extrapolations as the actual values unfold in time.

    IN CONCLUSION: mitigate! Don't be fooled and don't be a fool: wear a mask. Wash your hands. Avoid large crowds. Think before you decide to demonstrate about anything right now: is it worth your health to do it? Get lots of good sunlight in open spaces. Respect the space of others. Stay healthy. We DON'T want the US-death extrapolation, which was adjusted on August 1st, 2020, to happen.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2020
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  17. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I'm not sure about that. You can find crazy people everywhere if you look hard enough. Plus, Berlin is only 4 hours away from Köln, for instance, so, protesting in the capitol city would be bound to get more press, and it did. That being said, Berlin is indeed now the largest city in Germany so I guess there could be a higher concentration of such whackadoodles there than elsewhere. Plus, there are pockets of them all over the more economically depressed regions of the former East Germany.

    BTW, it's not my country. I myself am a US-American citizen. I just work in Germany.
     
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  18. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Oh, and....

    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    ECUADOR, ECUADOR, ECUADOR...

    Ecuador now has more than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths, but how is suddenly got there needs a quality explanation. Please don't let your eyes glaze over. Please read this.

    A sizeable C-19 death count disparity has just happened in Ecuador, also explained at WorldOMeter, but the way they shunted the data into past makes it all look very confusing, so I am taking time right now to clear this up and then link to it in the analysis for 2020-09-007, when the time comes.

    First, here the WorldOMeter table, sorted by total deaths, descending, for 2020-09-006 as I presented in the analysis for that day (I posted it just a few short hours ago).

    [​IMG]

    As you can see from the screenshot, at EOD on 2020-09-006, Ecuador had a sum-total of 6,724 C19 deaths and you will also notice, Ecador did not post any new data for that day. If you look back two days to the data from 2020-09-005, you would see:

    [​IMG]

    ...the same death total of 6,724.

    Now, fast forward to today, about 40 minutes ago:

    2020-09-007 COVID-19 deaths in Ecuador revised up by 3,500 - worldometer chart.png

    You will see that without any new cases or new deaths added, Ecuador's death total now stands at 10,524, putting it (unfortunately) over the 10,000-death line.
    And while you are at it, you may notice that Ecuador's total cases actually went DOWN in the last few hours, from 118,045 to 109,784.

    So, what happened? This happened:

    2020-09-007 COVID-19 deaths in Ecuador revised up by 3,780.png

    Unfortunately, when WorldOMeter shunts data into the past, the +values don't add up anymore.

    In order to prove that point, I made new screenshots of the WorldOMeter tables for 2020-09-006 and 2020-09-005, sorted in descending order by total deaths and look what has happened:

    2020-09-007 COVID-19 deaths in Ecuador revised up by 3,500 - worldometer chart 2020-09-006.png

    What was listed as a death total of 6,274 just hours ago is now listed as 10,524, but the +deaths, which should be +4,250, are only +20.

    Ok, let's check out the day before (2020-09-005):

    2020-09-007 COVID-19 deaths in Ecuador revised up by 3,500 - worldometer chart 2020-09-005.png

    Wild, eh? 2020-09-005 ALSO shows a new death total of 10,504, but only +76 deaths. So, I am quite sure that the total death count for Ecuador is now correct and I fully understand WorldOMeter wanting to put the data into the date categories where it belongs, but WorldOMeter has failed to recalculate the + values, which is utter nonsense.

    But as you know, my policy is to account for every case and every death, regardless where in the past it has been shunted. And when a large disparity occurs (in the case of Ecuador, two disparities on the same day), I put on my detective hat and go digging....

    The long and short of this is that we are just at the beginning of the day on Monday, 2020-09-007, but there is already a very large death count:

    2020-09-007 COVID-19 deaths in Ecuador revised up by 3,500 - excel table.png

    As you can see, the world has only grown +19,563 new C19 cases up until now (a pretty normal Monday morning development, based on what I have seen in the past), but we are already at +5868 deaths. But wait, the WorldOMeter chart is only showing +498 deaths.

    Hint: my tabulation is correct.

    So, when all is said and done today, expect to see a very, very large daily death number in the worldwide analysis for 2020-09-007, probably between +8,000 and +10,000.

    One final note: Ecuador's mortality rate (deaths/confirmed cases) = 9.57%. To compare, the mortality rate in the USA is currently: 3.00%.
    Worse yet, Ecuador has barely tested (330,470 tests in a nation of 17.7 million people). So, Ecuador's current positivity rate (total positives/total tests) = 33.20%. Were Ecuador to test at the same level as the USA, then the positives would probably be 14-fold of what you see here, because the USA's tests-to-one-million-population is 14 times that of Ecuador.

    -Stat
     
    Last edited: Sep 7, 2020
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  20. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    If only we could have seen this coming...

    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/515151-indiana-university-seeing-uncontrolled-spread-of
    https://news.iu.edu/stories/2020/09...eek-housing-re-evaluate-living-situation.html

    Ahhhh, the good old greek life at Universities....

    The positivity rate in most of the greek houses (sororities, fraternities) = 50%

    There are only 2,600 in the greek system at IU, which means that there are definitely over 1,000 C19 cases at this University alone.

    But all said and told, there are 58,000 students, faculty and employees at IU.

    "Houston, we have a problem."

    Ok, that sentence is wrong.

    Bloomington, we have a problem....
     
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  21. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Oh, OK. American. LOL, I was thinking, damn, this German guy speaks phenomenally correct English!
    ----
    Have you been looking at our daily total of tests? I wonder if part of the dwindling new cases has to do with the CDC's new guidelines to curtail testing.
     
  22. gnoib

    gnoib Well-Known Member

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    Lets see what Labour Day weekend brings.
    Memorial and 4th were a massive
    disaster.

    @State, can't loose your humor , bought 5 new machines, all AEGs, proudly made in the USA, Aufgebaut, Eingeschaltet, Gehtnicht.
    Since Thursday the internet is down at the Farm. Today the smoke is so thick, its like fog and than it is supposed to snow tomorrow night.
    85F today !!!!

    This is a bat ars crazy year, bro


    Groeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoeoehl
     
  23. ronv

    ronv Well-Known Member

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    It looks real. We are almost back to where we reopened last time.
    upload_2020-9-7_9-41-39.png
    upload_2020-9-7_9-42-21.png
     
  24. CenterField

    CenterField Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Europeans say they are starting to see a second wave. However, there are also good news, as hospitalizations and deaths are not rising given that a lot of the spike in cases stems from more testing and from younger people catching the disease, but they do warn about the youngsters passing it on to their older relatives:

    https://news.yahoo.com/second-wave-europe-edge-cases-122000032.html
     
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  25. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I work in a number of different languages each week and use this site in particular to keep my English skills up to snuff. The only person with whom I speak all the time in English here in Germany is my daughter. Otherwise, 95% of my day is auf Deutsch and four or five other languages other than good old English.

    The dwindling of case-numbers in the USA, if it is truly due to less people getting infected, is hallelujah amen great news.

    But things dropped awfully quickly. I'll just leave it like that for now. Because I of all people would prefer to see zero cases per day, anytime, anywhere.

    However, after this holiday weekend, I assume that the number of fresh infections will rise again.
     
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