Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Thursday, 2021-03-004
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍***** 116,207,806 *****֍Ώ
+453,254 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 381,987 = 265.3 new cases every minute
+10,031 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,936 = 6.2 deaths every minute
Italy is now -1,000 away from 100,000 total Covid-19 deaths


​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,526,086 ********֍֍
THE USA FELL BEHIND BRAZIL IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 2nd TIME IN THREE DAYS
+69,709 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 67,689 = 47 new cases every minute
+1,984 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,836 = 1.3 deaths every minute
OHIO IS -25,000 AWAY FROM 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES


​

INDIA:
֍* 11,173,572 *֍
+16,824 daily cases / +113 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in 10-13 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍ 10,796,506 ֍
BRAZIL SURPASSED THE USA IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 2nd TIME IN THREE DAYS
+74,285 daily cases / +1,1786 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 37.75%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 71 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in 10-13 days

​

 

I don't think the major news media is really onto this one yet, but I am seeing hard evidence that +cases in most of the European nations that are in my tracking are once again on the rise, especially in:

France
Italy
Germany
Poland
Ukraine
Czechia
Romania
and to a lesser extent: the Benelux nations

Missing from this rise in +cases at this time:
UK
Spain
Portugal

I am hoping that this is not a 3rd wave in the making, now that the UK, S. African and Brazilian mutations are now in Europe.

I've been watching the numbers like a hawk the last 9 days and in the last 5 is real evidence that the numbers are jumping. If you go to the online excel tables, you can see the rise in numbers for yourself.

*Sigh*

Also, the numbers are skyrocketing in Brazil, due (I assume) to its own mutation. Brazil is on track to overtake India and become rank 2 in total cases within the next 10-13 days, at current trajectory.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Friday, 2021-03-005
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍****** 116,660,269 ******֍Ώ
+452,463 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 383,429 = 266.3 new cases every minute
+10,542 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,974 = 6.2 deaths every minute
Italy is now -700 away from 100,000 total Covid-19 deaths

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,593,704 ********֍֍
THE USA FELL BEHIND BRAZIL IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 3rd TIME IN FOUR DAYS
+67,618 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 65,256 = 45.3 new cases every minute
+1,927 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,783 = 1.2 deaths every minute
OHIO IS -23,800 AWAY FROM 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES


​

INDIA:
֍* 11,191,864 *֍
+18,292 daily cases / +109 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in circa 8 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍ 10,871,843 ֍
BRAZIL SURPASSED THE USA IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 3rd TIME IN FOUR DAYS
+75,337 daily cases / +1,760 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 38.01%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 72 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in circa 8 days

​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Saturday, 2021-03-006
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍******* 117,068,253 *******֍Ώ
+407,984 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 386,101 = 268.1 new cases every minute
+7,744 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,926 = 6.2 deaths every minute
ITALY EXCEEDED 3,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON 2021-03-005
ITALY IS POISED TO EXCEED 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS IN THE NEXT DAYS
TUNISIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED ON THIS DAY, 90th NATION TO DO SO

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,653,891 ********֍֍
THE USA FELL BEHIND BRAZIL IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 4th TIME IN FIVE DAYS
THE USA IS POISED TO EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK
+60,187 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 64,438 = 44.7 new cases every minute
+1,556 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,779 = 1.2 deaths every minute
OHIO IS -22,250 AWAY FROM 1,000,000 TOTAL COVID-19 CASES

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,210,580 *֍
+18,716 daily cases / +98 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in 6.5 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍ 10,939,320 ֍
BRAZIL SURPASSED THE USA IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 4th TIME IN FIVE DAYS
BRAZIL IS NOW ON THE CUSP OF 11 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES
+67,477 daily cases / +1,498 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 38.25%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 73 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in 6.5 days

​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Sunday, 2021-03-007
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍******* 117,441,175 *******֍Ώ
+372,922 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 390,437 = 271 new cases every minute
+5,826 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,827 = 6.1 deaths every minute
BRAZIL EXCEEDED 11,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
BRAZIL HAS LEAD THE USA IN DAILY +CASES ON 5 OF THE LAST 6 DAYS
ITALY IS POISED TO EXCEED 100,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS TODAY OR TOMORROW

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,696,250 ********֍֍
+42,359 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 62,528 = 43.4 new cases every minute
+719 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,723 = 1.2 deaths every minute
THE USA FELL BEHIND BRAZIL IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 5th TIME IN SIX DAYS
THE USA IS POISED TO EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
THE USA REPORTED UNDER 1,000 DAILY DEATHS FOR THE 1st TIME IN 3.5 MONTHS, SINCE 2020-11-029

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,229,271 *֍
+18,691 daily cases / +99 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in 4.2 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,019,344 *֍
BRAZIL SURPASSED 11,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES ON THIS DAY
BRAZIL SURPASSED THE USA IN +CASES ON THIS DAY, 5th TIME IN SIX DAYS
+80,024 daily cases / +1,054 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 38.53%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 74 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in 4.2 days

​

 

ITALY EXCEEDS 100,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS, 6th NATION TO DO SO​

On this day, 2021-03-008, Italy entered the 6-digit zone in total C19 deaths, after the USA, Brazil, India, Mexico and the UK:

 

Brazil seems intent on setting new records.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Monday, 2021-03-008
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍******* 117,744,351 *******֍Ώ
+303,176 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 391,649 = 272 new cases every minute
+6,723 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,825 = 6.1 deaths every minute
ITALY EXCEEDED 100,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 6th NATION TO DO SO
​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,744,652 ********֍֍
+48,402 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 61,485 = 42.7 new cases every minute
+790 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,629 = 1.1 deaths every minute
THE USA IS POISED TO EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
THE USA REPORTED UNDER 1,000 DAILY DEATHS FOR THE 2nd DAY IN A ROW
THE LAST TIME THE USA HAD LESS THAN +1,000 DAILY DEATHS TWICE IN ROW WAS 2020-11-022 & 023

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,244,624 *֍
+15,353 daily cases / +76 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in 3.8 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,055,480 *֍
+36,136 daily cases / +1,114 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 38.66%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 75 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in 3.8 days

​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Tuesday, 2021-03-009
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍******** 118,146,650 ********֍Ώ
+402,299 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 412,699 = 286.6 new cases every minute
+9,428 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,799 = 6.1 deaths every minute
SINCE 2021-03-002, THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES HAS RISEN STEADILY AGAIN, A WARNING SIGN

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,801,506 ********֍֍
+56,854 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 61,543 = 42.7 new cases every minute
+1,946 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,623 = 1.1 deaths every minute
THE USA IS POISED TO EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC
THE USA HAS RETURNED TO OVER +1,000 DAILY DEATHS

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,261,470 *֍
+16,846 daily cases / +113 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in 2.7 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,125,017 *֍
+69,537 daily cases / +1,954 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 38.90%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 76 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in 2.7 days
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

 

I would like to go back to this posting from 2021-02-025 and see how things have shaped up. Based on the rolling averages as of that date, here were the death projections for the next round figure:



The table predicted that South Africa would exceed 50,000 deaths on 2021-02-027. South Africa indeed jumped over 50,000 deaths two days later, on 2021-03-001.

The table predicted that Italy would exceed 100,000 deaths on 2021-03-007. Italy indeed jumped over 100,000 the next day, on 2021-03-008.

So, until now, the table is appearing to be pretty accurate. As I wrote in the posting:

Next up on the table is Mexico, which was at that time projected to exceed 200,000 deaths on 2021-03-017, in about one week. On 2021-02-025, Mexico had 182,815 deaths. Today, 2021-03-010, Mexico has now reached 191,789 deaths:



(note: you will note that I have stamped this screenshot with EOD - End of Day - for 2021-03-010, in spite of the fact that the day has just barely begun. Mexico posts it's totals for the day between 2-3 in the morning for that day and has never once, to this day, adjusted its figures, so I can report EOD with 100% confidence for Mexico already now).

So, between, the time I made the projection posting on 2021-02-025 and now, 13 days ago, Mexico has advanced +8,974 more C19 deaths and is now -8,211 away from the 200,000 mark. If you look in column O (daily deaths 7-day avg), you will see that the current rolling average is 657 deaths per day (it was 822 on the average on 2021-02-025, which means that the average is slowing down, a good sign).

From here on out, the math is eminently simple: 8,211 / 657 = 12.5 days until Mexico goes over 200,000 deaths, which means that table from 2021-02-025 no longer applies to Mexico, it will not exceed 200,000 deaths on 2021-03-017, but more than likely between 2021-02-023 and 025.

The point is: things can change, but even with a slowed down rate of deaths, a number of nations are still headed for some gruesome markers.

Today, Russia jumped over 90,000 deaths. France will do the same in the next days. And then it's only a matter of time, regardless of vaccine, until those two nations also join the 6-digit club in C19 deaths.

Until the world reaches solid herd-immunity, there are still going to be deaths. There is no getting around this. Around the end of March, I will be updating the table from 2021-02-025 with new data but will keep the old projection as an extra column to the right to see how much as changed.

-Stat

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Wednesday, 2021-03-010
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍******** 118,621,245 ********֍Ώ
+474,595 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 409,528 = 284.4 new cases every minute
+10,105 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,628 = 6 deaths every minute


​

[


For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,862,124 ********֍֍
+60,618 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 57,964 = 40.3 new cases every minute
+1,617 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,506 = 1 deaths every minute
THE USA IS POISED TO EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,284,311 *֍
+22,841 daily cases / +134 daily deaths
At the current rate of avg daily cases, India will fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 in 1.6 days

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,205,972 *֍
+80,955 daily cases / +2,349 daily deaths
2nd HIGHEST DAILY +CASE LOAD EVER FOR BRAZIL, AFTER 2021-01-007
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 39.18%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 77 consecutive days
At the current rate of avg daily cases, Brazil will surpass India and become rank 2 in 1.6 days
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Thursday, 2021-03-011
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

2021-03-011 is the 1-year anniversary of the WHO announcement that COVID-19 had become a PANDEMIC
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍********* 119,101,697 *********֍Ώ
+480,452 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 413,413 = 287.1 new cases every minute
+9,873 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,606 = 6 deaths every minute
ESTONIA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED, 91st NATION TO DO SO
THE UK EXCEEDED 100,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED, 5th NATION TO DO SO


​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,925,902 ********֍֍
+63,778 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 57,117 = 39.7 new cases every minute
+1,530 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,441 = 1 deaths every minute
THE USA IS POISED TO EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,305,979 *֍
+21,668 daily cases / +113 daily deaths
Only 21,710 C19-cases ahead, India will likely fall behind Brazil and become rank 3 today, 2021-03-012

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,284,269 *֍
+78,297 daily cases / +2,207 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 39.46%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 78 consecutive days
Only 21,710 C19-cases behind, Brazil will likely surpass India and become rank 2 today, 2021-03-012
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Friday, 2021-03-012
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations. The standards for the small analyses have changed, you can read up on that HERE.​

-At End of Month (EOM), there will be far larger analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. There will be no more mid-month analyses, only a few extra tables. But I will include the rubrik worktable for Worldwide/USA after every Sunday, when possible.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍********* 119,597,209 *********֍Ώ
OUR WORLD WILL EXCEED 120 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES TODAY OR TOMORROW
+495,512 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 419,563 = 291.4 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+9,759 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,494 = 5.9 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
BRAZIL EXCEEDED INDIA IN TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, MOVING UP TO RANK 2 BEHIND THE USA
BRAZIL & INDIA WERE LAST IN THIS CONFIGURATION ON 2020-09-005, MORE THAN 6 MONTHS AGO
THE USA WILL EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES TODAY, 2021-03-013​

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍******** 29,993,423 ********֍֍
+67,521 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 57,103 = 39.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,823 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,426 = 1 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
THE USA WILL EXCEED 30,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES TODAY, 2021-03-013
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC
SINCE 2021-03-010, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +DEATHS EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,363,816 *֍
+84,047 daily cases, 2nd highest daily +case-load ever / +2,152 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 39.75%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 79 consecutive days
BRAZIL EXCEEDED INDIA IN TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, MOVING UP TO RANK 2 BEHIND THE USA
BRAZIL & INDIA WERE LAST IN THIS CONFIGURATION ON 2020-09-005, MORE THAN 6 MONTHS AGO
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC
SINCE 2021-03-010, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +DEATHS EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

INDIA:
֍* 11,333,491 *֍
+27,512 daily cases / +157 daily deaths
BOTH METRICS ARE NOW ON THE RISE IN INDIA
INDIA FELL BEHIND BRAZIL IN TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, MOVING DOWN TO RANK 3
INDIA & BRAZIL WERE LAST IN THIS CONFIGURATION ON 2020-09-005, MORE THAN 6 MONTHS AGO

​

 

So, close to mid-month, March 2021 and on the anniversary weekend of this thread (it was created 52 weeks ago on this day in my time-zone) but the official mathematical anniversary will be on Monday (my-time) / Sunday (in the USA), I took a hard look at columns N and O (7-day rolling averages in +cases and +deaths) of all 29 excel-table tabs to see where we are.

Worldwide, the rolling average shows +cases on the rise again, but +deaths falling, a strong indicator that a wave has ended and quite possibly, another wave is building.

So, I looked at the 28 nations I am tracking to see where the averages are coming from.

The following 1 nation is a complete mirror image of the worldwide trends, going strongly against them, showing +cases falling but +deaths rising:
Czechia. So, what is happening worldwide is in no way happening in Czechia. It means that Czechia has not yet finished it's winter wave in terms of deaths.

The following 11 nations are going strongly against half of this trend, they have both +cases and +deaths falling:
The USA, UK, Spain, Colombia, Mexico, S. Africa, Indonesia, Peru, The Netherlands, Israel, Portugal. So, these 11 nations are not contributing to the new 7-day average showing +cases rising.

The following 6 nations are going strongly with the worldwide trend, having both rising +cases and falling +deaths:
France, Turkey, Italy, Germany, Canada and Iraq. These five nations combined are near the total population of the USA.

The following 6 nations are going halfway with the worldwide trend and halfway against it, showing both +case and +deaths rising:
Brazil, India, Argentina, Poland, Ukraine and Romania. Note how much of Eastern Europe is involved with this. Poland is a population-rich land.

The following 3 nations are going halfway with the worldwide trend and halfway against it, showing +cases rising but +deaths leveled-out:
Russia, Iran and Chile

And 1 nation is the total odd-man out, with both +cases and +deaths most definitely leveled-out:
Belgium

So, that makes for 12 nations going strongly against the worldwide 7-day average trends, 15 nations going strongly or half-way strongly with the worldwide trends and 1 nation not really saying anything meaningful at all right now, as far as this is concerned.

This tells me that if the USA, UK, Columbia, Mexico, et al from above (which have large populations) continue bucking the trend, then it probably means that a great number of nations under the 28 I am tracking are suddenly having upward movement, which, honestly, is not a good sign, because these 28 nations are about 85% of the total worlwide figures. If the other 15% of the world is suddenly moving upward, it means that too much of the world that we have somewhat ignored is now getting really infected. Don't forget, every life counts.

Most disturbing is that there is the real feeling that another way is forming in Europe. Also, Brazil (South America) is a total disaster, now leading the USA in daily +cases, daily +deaths and also leading in the 7-day rolling averages for both rubriks.

You can go to the online excel table for yourself (see: my signature file) and see what I mean.

This is EXACTLY why US President Joe Biden is absolutely dead-set on getting all adult Americans vaccinated by the end of May, otherwise, yet another wave could hit the USA.

-Stat

 

Brazil is indeed a disaster!

“Health analysts warn that the global implications are significant. Brazil has shown a capacity to spawn new, potentially more dangerous mutations of the coronavirus. The variant known as P.1, which was discovered earlier this year, has stampeded the Amazonian city of Manaus, leading to more deaths in January and February than in all of 2020.
If Brazil does not control the virus, it will be the largest open laboratory in the world for the virus to mutate,” said Miguel Nicolelis, an epidemiologist and neuroscientist at Duke University. “It could not only be the epicenter of the pandemic, but the epicenter of the dissemination of more lethal and infectious variants. It’s in the interest of the entire planet.””

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...03d52a-7a12-11eb-a976-c028a4215c78_story.html

 

THE USA EXCEEDS 30,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES, 1st NATION TO DO SO
​

So, this just happened:

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Saturday, 2021-03-013
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. No more mid-month analyses but occasionally some extra data for Sundays.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍ 120,041,592 ֍֍Ώ
OUR WORLD EXCEEDED 120 MILLION TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
+444,383 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 424,763 = 295 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+8,277 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,570 = 6 deaths every minute, tendency: rising

THE USA EXCEEDED 30,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
BELGIUM & CHILE EXCEEDED 10,000,000 TOTAL C19 TESTS PERFORMED ON THIS DAY​

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍ 30,043,662 ֍֍֍
+50,239 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 55,682 = 38.7 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+1,061 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,355 = 0.9 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
THE USA EXCEEDED 30,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES ON THIS DAY
For the first time in a long time, California was not in the top 5 +case-states on this day
Ohio is now very close to 1,000,0000 total C19 cases, Pennsylvania is close behind.

SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC
SINCE 2021-03-010, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +DEATHS EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,439,250 *֍
+70,934 daily cases / +1,940 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 40.00%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 80 consecutive days
SINCE 2021-03-007, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC
SINCE 2021-03-010, BRAZIL'S 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +DEATHS EXCEEDS THE USA'S STATISTIC
​

INDIA:
֍* 11,358,644 *֍
+25,153 daily cases / +159 daily deaths
BOTH METRICS ARE NOW ON THE RISE IN INDIA

​

 

THE 7 NATIONS UNDER 1,000,000 C19 CASES THAT I HAVE BEEN TRACKING SINCE AT LEAST JANUARY, 2021​

You can go back and compare numbers for yourselves, either using the online excel tables or reading the reports over the last 2.5 months, but the 7 nations under the 1,000,000 mark (Canada, Chile, Romania, Israel, Portugal, Belgium and Iraq) that I have been tracking have all been marching very steadily toward the 1 million mark.

Canada broke over 900,000 on Friday, 2021-03-012, Chile and Romania are not far behind.

I wrote in the new standards for the 2021 analyses that it is my impression that even with vaccines going into peoples' arms, we could likely end up with at least 40 nations over the 1,000,000 mark before this thing finally grinds to a halt. It's only a matter of time before the 7 underdeck nations I am tracking jump over 1,000,000 total confirmed C19 cases, but under those 7 are a number of countries that will likely appear on my tracking radar by, say, the end of April at the latest:

Sweden, Phillipines, Pakistan, Switzerland, Bangladesh, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, Morroco and Jordan.

Hungary is moving the fastest of these lower-upperdecks nations, running by between +5,000 and +9,000 new cases per day..

Right now, the Phillipines is very close to where Iraq was when I added the last three nations (Portugal, Israel and Iraq) into my internal tracking on Saturday, 2021-01-030. Since then, Iraq, one of the slowest-moving of the top nations, has added more than +134,000 cases to it's total. So, even at a snail's pace, by year's end, Iraq is over the 1,000,000-mark, perhaps far sooner, unfortunately.

The point I am making is that things are moving under the radar, perhaps faster than people may realize.

When I track a nation, I input four data points:
-total cases
-total deaths
-resolved cases
-total tests performed

And check the math for the following data points to make sure that the math between my excel table and worldOMeters is correct:
-+cases
-+deaths
-active cases
-+total tests

So, every day, for 28 nations, I am writing and/or checking 8 data points. That's 224 data-points, plus 6 for the worldwide figures (which does not include total C19 tests) = 230 data points per day. Usually, one nation takes me about one minute to make sure that the numbers are right. Once we hit fourty nations, I may have to reconsider how I do the tracking....

Let's all hope that vaccines get into peoples' arms as quickly as possible, so that such tracking will not be necessary. It saves lives.

-Stat

 

This kind of slipped by me this last week:

little, itty bitty baltic nation Latvia (pop: 1.9 million) now has more Covid-19 cases than China.

It must has surpassed China sometime after South Korea did in this last week.....

 

THE 1-YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THIS THREAD​

Exactly one year ago, almost exactly to the minute, this thread went active, on March 15th, 2020, 02:01 UTC +1 / March 14th, 2020, 20:01 ET.

In the OP to this thread, here was the screenshot from March 15th (March 14th), 2020:



And here was a segment of the WorldOMeter table:




And here is how things are looking right now:







I'll simply let those numbers speak for themselves.

It is my fervent hope that we will be able to close this thread this year because COVID-19 will have been defeated.

-Stat

 

The quick analysis for Sunday, 2021-03-014 will come out relatively late today: I have some major appointments, plus very often at mid-month, if it's on or around the Sunday, there is lots of data revision (almost always upward) at WorldOMeter, so I think it's worth it to wait until the end of my day here in Germany, like around 10 PM UTC +1.

As a matter of fact, since Spain reports it's Saturday and Sunday figures alongside the Monday figures, I may just move toward delayed analyses for Sundays, when it fits into my schedule.

My daughter starts back to school (8th grade) tomorrow for live-teaching. I will be very curious to see how she responds to being back in a "normal" school-setting. But then again, the way the numbers are shooting upward in Germany once again, this dream of live-education may be short-lived. Sigh.

-Stat

 

Breaking: Italy is the first European nation to re-enter a complete (hard) lockdown since the end of the 2nd wave. Nothing gets in, nothing gets out.

Europe is preparing itself for a 3rd wave.

 

I don’t think we will see the end of this. It feeds on itself.

 

UPDATED PERMANENT DISCLAIMER AS OF 2020-11-009
Chronological online PF C-19 analysis Library-links: 2020 / 2021
Screenshot overflow-links: 2020 / 2021-01, 2021-02, 2021-03,

Concise COVID-19 analysis: Sunday, 2021-03-014
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations circa 5,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards
​

-Weekdays: just barebones data for the worldwide figures and the top nations, according to THESE STANDARDS.​

-End of Month (EOM): very large analyses, which you can interpret for yourselves. No more mid-month analyses but occasionally some extra data for Sundays.
-Whatever is not screenshotted during the week, you can always see for yourself at the online-excel-document (see: sig-file).

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 28 NATIONS
Currently, the figures for worldwide and three of the 28 tracked nations are published here as screenshots on a daily basis.

WORLDWIDE:
Ώ֍֍ 120,416,014 ֍֍Ώ
+374,422 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 424,977 = 295.1 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+6,031 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 8,599 = 6 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
ITALY SURPASSED SPAIN IN TOTAL C19 CASES ON THIS DAY, MOVING UP TO RANK 7
ITALY HAS REINSTATED COMPLETE, RESTRICTIVE LOCKDOWN, ANTICIPATING A 3rd EUROPEAN WAVE
BRAZIL NOW SOLIDLY LEADS THE USA IN THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES & + DEATHS

​

For additional screenshots of the worldwide figures, please use the screenshot overflow link for 2021-02 (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍ 30,081,657 ֍֍֍
+37,995 daily cases // rolling 7-day avg = 55,058 = 38.2 new cases every minute, tendency: falling
+629 daily deaths // rolling 7-day avg = 1,342 = 0.9 deaths every minute, tendency: falling
Ohio is now very close to 1,000,0000 total C19 cases, Pennsylvania is close behind
BRAZIL NOW SOLIDLY LEADS THE USA IN THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES & + DEATHS
VIRGINIA EXCEEDED 10,000 TOTAL COVID-19 DEATHS ON THIS DAY, 19th UNIT TO DO SO

​

BRAZIL:
֍* 11,483,370 *֍
+44,120 daily cases / +1,111 daily deaths
The positivity rate in Brazil is an enormous 40.15%, stuck now at a total of 28,600,000 tests for 81 consecutive days
BRAZIL NOW SOLIDLY LEADS THE USA IN THE 7-DAY ROLLING AVG IN +CASES & + DEATHS
​

INDIA:
֍* 11,385,158 *֍
+26,514 daily cases / +120 daily deaths
BOTH METRICS ARE NOW ON THE RISE IN INDIA

​