Tracking the COVID-19-Virus in Germany, the USA, Italy and other hot spots in the world

That sucks.
Good luck to her.

 

We had 39,000 new cases in the last 24 hours!

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) - please read at least once and use as needed - there is new info to be gleaned.

USA COVID-19 statistical analysis EOQ2 (Half-year), 2022-06-030
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 ET)

֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍********* 89,394,919 *********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
THE USA DATA IS SEMI-FINAL
THE USA WILL EXCEED 100,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES DURING Q3 OF 2022, LIKELY IN SEPTEMBER
+33,691,798 cases at half-year 2022 (was +35,250,846 cases for all of 2021)
+195,871 deaths at half year 2022 (was +492,690 deaths for all of 2021)

USA daily calculated averages:
+186,142 new C19 cases per day at half-year 2022 (all of 2021: 95,578 )
+1,082 deaths per day at half-year 2022 (all of 2021: +1,350)​

---------------------------------------------------------
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases in the USA: 3,333 (at EOY 2021: 18,028 )
Total USA C19 tests administered: during Q2 of 2022, the USA surpassed 1 BILLION confirmed Covid-19 tests
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

In one-half year's time, the USA went from 55.7 to 89.3 million COVID-19 cases and from 847,000 to slightly over 1,000,000 COVID-19 deaths. Before you read farther, re-read that last sentence and reflect for a moment. Believe me, it's a good idea. Let that sad news sink in for a while.

At the New Year, I wrote this in the USA analysis:

And indeed, it happened

What the averages mean: +186,142, +1,082 = 129.3 fresh C19 cases and 0.75 C19 deaths per minute in the USA. EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY DAY.​

Worldwide, the Omikron wave that enveloped January, February and March of this year led to a roughly 90% growth rate in +cases and a 17% increase in +deaths worldwide whereas it was circa +60% and +23%, respectively in the USA. This means that in spite of huge numbers, the USA was NOT the main driver of the Omikron wave at half-year 2022 in +cases across the world, but it was indeed one of the main drivers in +deaths. However, that is somewhat deceptive as the overall death rate from Omikron is far lower than it was for the wild variant, beta and Delta.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, Total cases (WorldOMeter):
​

Screenshot is from 2022-07-002 going into 2022-07-003 (between midnight and 1 am my time, (UTC +1), but I was too tired to stay up and write the analysis, which is why it is coming out now. I see that between then and now, the USA has registered about 10,000 more cases, but unlike the world aggregate table at WorldOMeter, the USA table does not have a "2 days ago" function, so this is as close to the final numbers as I can get.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, total cases, deaths and tests:​

As of EOY 2021, 19 units (all of them states) had jumped over the million-mark in total confirmed C-19 cases. Now as of half-year 2022, it's 27 units, all of them states. The following 8 states joined the million-club during this time: WA, CO, SC, KY, AL, LA, MD and OK.

Worlwide, the number of nations over the million mark went from 42 to 62 nations.

Also, as of EOY 2021, 4 units (all of them states) had suffered more than 50,000 total C19 deaths. That number has remained stabile, but CA is now approaching 100,000 total Covid-19 deaths and is very likely to get there by the end of this year.

At EOY 2021, 1 unit in the USA (CA) had performed more than 100,000,000 C-19 tests and 25 units had performed over 10,000,000 total tests. Now, that statistic stands at 2 and 27, with the USA exceeding 1,000,000,000 total tests during Q2 of 2022.​

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, YEARLY + cases, +deaths, +tests:​

​

6 states added more than +1,000,000 cases to their total in the first half-year of 2022 and 4 of those 6 averaged more than +10,000 cases per day.
4 states added more than +10,000 deaths to their total in the first half-year of 2022.
5 states added more than +10,000 deaths to their total in the first half-year of 2022.

COVID-19 in the USA, by all 57 UNITS, YEARLY + cases, +deaths growth rate:​

NY almost perfectly tracked the national growth rate in +cases, while SC did the same for +deaths. MA had an astoundingly low growth rate in +deaths.


-Stat

 

It's going to take hours today to get all of the worldwide composite data for half-year 2022 done, but the tracking tree is already finished:

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

WORLDWIDE COVID-19 statistical analysis for Half-Year 2022
Thursday, 2022-06-030 (UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 ET)

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏΏΏ֍֍֍֍֍** 552,773,947 **֍֍֍֍֍ΏΏΏΏ
LARGEST HALF-YEAR FIGURES EVER
+264,296,832 half-yearly cases // daily avg = 1,460,203 = 1.014.0 new cases every minute
+905,490 half-yearly deaths // daily avg = 5,003 = 3.5 new deaths every minute
22 NATIONS EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 CASES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2022
4 NATIONS ARE NOW OVER 30,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES
THE USA EXCEEDED 1,000,000 TOTAL C19 DEATHS and 1,000,000,000 TESTS DURING THIS TIME
THE USA IS ALSO NEARING 100,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C19 CASES
FOR OTHER MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME, SEE: RUBRIK TABLE
---------------------------------------------------------
The number of serious/critical (ICU) cases worldwide: 36,848 (EOY 2021: 89,834)
Combined, the top 80 nations have performed a total of over 6.1 BILLION Covid-19 tests.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

STAT'S EXCEL-TABLE:​

We ended last year (2021) with 288,477,115 total Covid-19 cases; we just ended the first half year of 2022 with 552,773,947 such total cases, having added +264,296,832 cases during these last six months. This means that we came 92% of the way to doubling the total number of C19 cases in the first two years of the pandemic in just six months time. That will be the legacy of the Omikron wave, which rocked our world for the first four of those six months.

What the daily-averages mean: +1,460,203, +5,003 = 1,014 fresh C19 cases (it was 907.5 at EOY 2021) and 3.5 C19 deaths per minute (it was 4.4 deaths at EOY 2021). EVERY MINUTE OF EVERY DAY.

There is now no doubt that the Omikron variant is far more infectious but yet far less deadly, a hallmark of a variant shortly before a pandemic ends.​

I would like to reflect just a bit on what happened thus far in 2022: we saw the Omikron variant spread out from South Africa and it was starting to gain foot in Europe, but suddenly, at the New Year 2022, it was as if it was everywhere. We saw nations that a lot of people do not even know exist suddenly whirl over the million-mark, 22 of them, to be exact. Here the "millions club update for you:

The 3-Rubriks Worksheet:
​

The history:



And, from WorldOMeter:


The other 4 screenshots can be found at the overflow thread of mine at blogspot. The screenshots are from 2022-07-002, 23:38 GMT +1, using the "two days ago" function within WorldOMeter.

Also, the tracking tree:

The top 80 tracked nations within the worldwide figures:​

I ended 2021 tracking 65 nations; that tracking then increased to 80 during Q1 of 2022. The screenshots of the excel tables will be provided following this, but you can always see them at the online tables, anyway. The top 80 nations represent roughly 96-97% of the total worldwide numbers in cases, deaths and tests.

Top 80 nations, by total cases & deaths, in descending order:​

Top 80 nations, by plus cases & deaths, in descending order:
​

Top 80 nations, cases & deaths by growth rate, in descending order:​

Of interest to note is that the top 9 growth rates in cases and the top 6 in deaths were all from Asia / Oceana. Sweden (rank 33) perfectly tracked the worldwide aggregate. The growth rate in the USA was decidedly under the worldwide aggregate.

Top 80 nations, cases only, by trend:​

Here I would take "trend" with a grain of salt because we are measuring a four-day trend since the end of CW25 until EOQ2 over the trend from an entire week (CW25 over CW24). Nonetheless, it can be informative.

Top 80 nations, tests, tests, tests, tests, tests!:​

Of course, the big news is that the USA topped 1 BILLION total tests performed.



This is some hidden news: Spain actually had more +tests than the USA!



One can also get a good overview with the continental numbers:

WORLDWIDE CONTINENTAL STATISTICS: TOTALS, +VALUES, GROWTH RATES​

In terms of totals, Europe lead in all four rubriks.



In terms of +values, Europe led in 3 of 4 rubriks.




In terms of growth rates, Oceana led in three of 4 rubriks, but interestingly, in the rubrik +actives, Asia led.


I suspect that these tables are pretty self-explanatory.

THE TRACKED NATIONS UNDER THE 1,000,000-MARK, HOW CLOSE TO 1,000,000?​

I will be publishing this with the concise analysis for CW 26, which will come out next Tuesday, so that I can use the most current complete weekly figure for the daily averages.

In retrospect, tracking on a weekly basis only has worked out well for all of us, I think. In the coming week, I will be commenting on some of the statistics provided in this posting.

Thanks for staying faithful to this dreadnaught thread.

-Stat

@MJ Davies @Derideo_Te @gnoib @nopartisanbull @Sallyally @CenterField - among others.

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 9 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)

THESE 5 NATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE PRE-TRACKING (UNOFFICIAL)​

BAHRAIN:
​

MYANMAR:
​

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:
​

PALESTINE:
​

ESTONIA:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 8 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)​

PANAMA:
​

GUATEMALA:
​

ECUADOR:
​

​

COSTA RICA:
​

​

LATVIA:
​

SAUDI ARABIA:
​

AZERBAIJAN:
​

SRI LANKA:
​

PARAGUAY:
​

KUWAIT:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 7 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)​

CUBA:
​

LITHUANIA:
​

TUNISIA:
​

SLOVENIA:
​

BELARUS:
​

NEPAL:
​

URUGUAY:
​

UAE:
​

MONGOLIA (*NEW*):​

BOLIVIA:
​

​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 1 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)

READ!​

In the past, the screenshot tables were provided pre-analysis. As of this quarter, they will be provided post-analysis. None of the figures are preliminary. They are all permanent.

Please remember that the average values for 2022-06-030 are for the first half-year and not just for one week.

So, let's get started.

WORLDWIDE:​

The Worldwide EOQ1 analysis was already published and is HERE.​

​

USA:
​

INDIA:
​

BRAZIL:
​

FRANCE:
​

GERMANY:
​

UK:

​

​

ITALY:
​

RUSSIA:
​

SOUTH KOREA:

​

TURKEY:

​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 2 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)
​

SPAIN:

​

VIETNAM:
​

ARGENTINA:
​

JAPAN:​

NETHERLANDS:
​

AUSTRALIA:
​

IRAN:
​

​

COLOMBIA:
​

INDONESIA:
​

POLAND:
​

[

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 3 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)
​

MEXICO:
​

PORTUGAL:
​

UKRAINE:
​

NORTH KOREA (*NEW*):
​

MALAYSIA:
​

THAILAND:
​

AUSTRIA:
​

ISRAEL:
​

BELGIUM:
​

SOUTH AFRICA:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 4 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)
​

CHILE:
​

CANADA:
​

CZECHIA:
​

TAIWAN:
​

SWITZERLAND:
​

PHILLIPPINES:
​

GREECE:
​

PERU:
​

DENMARK:
​

ROMANIA:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 5 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)​

SWEDEN:
​

IRAQ:
​

SERBIA:
​

BANGLADESH:
​

HUNGARY:
​

SLOVAKIA:
​

JORDAN:
​

GEORGIA:
​

IRELAND:​

PAKISTAN:
​

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

Analysis tables for Half-Year: June 30, 2022
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA), Part 6 of 9:
Worldwide and and top 80 nations (split into nine postings)​

NORWAY:
​

SINGAPORE:
​

NEW ZEALAND:
​

KAZAKHSTAN:
​

HONG KONG:
​

MOROCCO:
​

BULGARIA:
​

CROATIA:
​

FINNLAND:​

LEBANON:
​

 

Sorry, the order of the 85 tracked nations is a little bit discombobulated, but I think you can weed through it ok...

 

What a difference a year makes!

 

How is you Hormoenchen doing ?

 

She is now negative. Thanks!

 

Very n

Very nice

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

COVID-19 WEEKLY concise analysis: 2022-06-027 (Monday) through 2022-07-003 (Sunday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
CALENDAR WEEK 26, "STRADDLE-WEEK" OVER THE HALF-YEAR MARK
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 30,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 85 NATIONS
Of the 85 tracked nations, 5 dreadnaught nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.
As of CW-26 "dreadnaught" nation was redefined as circa 30,000,000 total C19 cases and above.

+cases / +deaths refers to +WEEKLY cases and +WEEKLY deaths, naturally.

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏΏΏΏ֍֍֍֍֍**** 554,750,572 ****֍֍֍֍֍ΏΏΏΏΏ
A SURGE IS MOST DEFINITELY UNDERWAY
+5,440,061 cases // daily avg = 777,237 = 539.8 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+10,374 deaths // daily avg = 1,482 = 1 new death every minute, tendency: steady
THERE WAS ONE MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGE DURING THIS TIME
SEE: RUBRIK WORKTABLE
-----------------------------------------​

With half-year 2022 now firmly in the rear-view mirror, some minor changes take effect in the weekly analyses starting now. First, instead of 80 officially tracked nations and 5 unofficially tracked nations, all 85 are now officially tracked and in the reported statistic. So, making some direct comparisons between CW-26 and CW-25 could be skewed, with 5 more nations in the mix than before. So, most of the time, I will simply press the restart button and only report on CW-26, without comparison to the week before. With CW-27, I will then restart the comparisons.

Second, the dreadnaught bar has been moved upward, from 20,000,000 total C19 cases to 30,000,000 such cases. Since Germany is currently very close to 30,000,000, it stays in the weekly screenshot reporting, but the UK leaves the field. Sorry, UK!

The 26th full week of 2022 showed a marked increase in +cases over CW-25, but not quite as high as CW-25 over CW-24. A surge is verifiably underway. You may also note that the USA did not contribute to this surge during this week. This is a pattern we saw in the USA in 2020, 2021 and now in 2022 concerning certain particular US-american holiday weekends (Memorial Day, July 4th, Thanksgiving) and invariably in the two weeks following, the stats shot up in the USA due to the backlog in reporting cases and deaths due to the holidays.

Here the rubrik worktable:



There's not much history outside of the rubrik worktable to report right now, so likely the history will be published once a month for awhile, at the last CW in that month, for instance in the case of July, with the analysis for CW-30.

From WorldOMeter:


The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents most of 85 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
These WorldOMeter screenshots are from 2022-07-005, 07:30 UTC +1 (02:30 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
For additional screenshots of these worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍********* 89,554,004 *********֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
USA EXCEEDED 89,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS LAST WEEK
USA CASES WERE REDUCED THIS TIME: JULY 4th WEEKEND...
THE USA WILL EXCEED 90,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THE COMING WEEK
+696,267 cases // daily avg = 99,467 = 69.1 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+2,387 deaths // daily avg = 341 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

INDIA:
֍֍֍֍*** 43,518,164 ***֍֍֍֍
+111,518 cases // daily avg = 15,931 = 11.1 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+203 deaths // daily avg = 29 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising​

BRAZIL:
֍֍֍** 32,502,469 **֍֍֍
+423,831 cases // daily avg = 60,547 = 42.0 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+1,558 deaths // rolling daily avg = 223 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

FRANCE:
֍֍֍* 31,427,755 *֍֍֍
FRANCE EXCEEDED 31,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES DURING THIS LAST WEEK
+766,815 cases // daily avg = 109,545 = 76.1 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+271 deaths // daily avg = 39 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

GERMANY:
֍֍******** 28,394,995 ********֍֍
GERMANY EXCEEDED 28,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 DURING THIS LAST WEEK
+623,084 cases // daily avg = 89,012 = 61.8 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+561 deaths // daily avg = 80 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

THE TOP-85 TABLES​

Here by total cases, descending:



The 85 nations I am tracking accounted for 97.31% of all worldwide cases and 96.26% of all deaths during the week being analysed, making this an excellent statistical tool to use.


Here sorted by +cases / +avg cases:



CW-26 saw no countries with over +1,000,000 +cases and only one with an average of over +100,000 cases per day (France). Important to note is that the top five +case getters were not asian nations. The wave in most of Asia is settling down some while it is firing up in other places across the world.

Here the same 80-nation list, sorted by growth rate:



The worldwide growth-rate in +cases during CW26 rose slightly to +0.98% (it was +0.87% the week before), with Bolivia (rank 23) tracking the national aggregate the closest. No nation had a growth rate over 10%, or even 7% for that matter.


Here, by trend:



We ended CW-25 with 10 nations at a plateau (the week before with only 80 nations in the tracking, it was 12 such nations). 63 nations are now surging forward, leaving us with only 12 nations that show their +cases receding (last week with only 80 nations in the tracking it was 14), and 6 of those 12 are key asian natons. The suges are happening on most every continent. It's like watching a large industrial sledgehmmer start up again...

TRACKED NATIONS UNDER 1,000,000 CASES: FUTUREWATCH​

Here you can see the nations from rank 65 to 85 that are all under 1,000,000 total C19 cases, first in chronological order of cases, from 982,000 down to 580,000.



Here the same data, but sorted by the current +case average, descending, with Guatemala well ahead of the other nations.





And finally, the same data, this time sorted by the projected number of days before each nation reaches the million mark. Right now, at this current pace, 5 nations are guaranteed to jump over the 1,000,000-line by years end and actually, by the end of August: Guatemala, UAE, Ecuador, Panama and Bolivia. You may notice that 4 of those 5 nations are South (or Middle) American nations.

However, the bottom three on the list (Belarus, Uruguay and Costa Rica) have no projection at all simply because they had no +case average for this last week, they all remained at a stillstand. Belarus, which is currently the closest to the million-mark, has reported no new statistics in the last 7 weeks, it may have a sudden jump out of nowhere. And Uruguay and Costa Rica are likely to jump very often, they just didn't do it this last week. Also, Mongolia, currently at 928,588, came from about 470,000 cases onc month ago and suddenly landed in the tracking in this fashion, so it's entirely possible that Mongolia simply waits for 3-4 months and then just adds 500,000 +cases just like that. Therefore, although the table points to only 5 nations guaranteed to join the million club by year's end, my gut tells me that it may be as high as 15 such nations once the next (and hopefully, last) wave hits it's stride.

Life comes at us fast!

​

-Stat

 

We are heading for between +6.5 and +7 million new Covid-19 cases worldwide for CW-27 when it ends tomorrow, a steep uptake over CW-26.

Also, both Italy and South Korea have shot ahead of Russia in the C19 total case rankings and there is a very good chance that France will move past Brazil in the next 14 days or less.

Way on down the line and way under my tracking, currently at 171,027 cases, Brunei is registering far more +cases than other nations in this lower category. With a population of 445,912, this put's Brunei's positivity in relation to total population at: 38.35%. Brunei is a small islamic state (with a Sultan) on the same island as Indonesia, in southeast Asia:

 

REFERENCE LINK, 2022 EDITION (new standing disclaimer as of 2022, written December 31,2021, online libraries, screenshot overflow links) / Also: OLDER EXCEL TRACKING DATA (2020-2021)

COVID-19 WEEKLY concise analysis: 2022-07-004 (Monday) through 2022-07-010 (Sunday)
(UTC +0, Greenwich = 20:00 UTC -5, East Coast of the USA)
CALENDAR WEEK 27
Worldwide and 'dreadnaught' nations from 30,000,000 COVID-19 cases upwards

THE SIG-FILE EXCEL TRACKING ENCOMPASSES WORLDWIDE FIGURES + 85 NATIONS
Of the 85 tracked nations, 5 dreadnaught nations are published here as screenshots on a weekly basis.
As of CW-26 "dreadnaught" nation was redefined as circa 30,000,000 total C19 cases and above.

+cases / +deaths refers to +WEEKLY cases and +WEEKLY deaths, naturally.

WORLDWIDE:
ΏΏΏΏΏ֍֍֍֍֍֍* 561,098,063 *֍֍֍֍֍֍ΏΏΏΏΏ
AN UNEXPECTED SUMMER SURGE IS MOST DEFINITELY UNDERWAY
+6,392,491 cases // daily avg = 913,213 = 634.2 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+11,970 deaths // daily avg = 1,710 = 1.2 new deaths every minute, tendency: rising
THERE WERE NO MAJOR RUBRIK CHANGES DURING THIS TIME
SEE: RUBRIK WORKTABLE
JAPAN WILL EXCEED 10,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES IN THE COMING WEEK
-----------------------------------------​

The 27th full week of 2022 showed a marked increase in +cases over CW-26. A summer surge is verifiably underway. During CW-26 USA did not contribute to this surge due to a pattern we saw in the USA in 2020, 2021 and now in 2022 concerning certain particular US-american holiday weekends (Memorial Day, July 4th, Thanksgiving) but just as predicted last week, the USA worked though it's statistics back-log and came close to +900,000 cases during CW-27. Also, France and Italy showed major upticks in +cases.

Here the rubrik worktable:



There's not much history outside of the rubrik worktable to report right now, so likely the history will be published once a month for awhile, at the last CW in that month, for instance in the case of July, with the analysis for CW-30.

From WorldOMeter:


The first two screenshots of the Worldwide figures (above) represents most of 85 nations now being tracked daily by me. See: online excel-table
These WorldOMeter screenshots are from 2022-07-012, 09:00 UTC +1 (03:00 ET), using the "2 days ago" function
For additional screenshots of these worldwide figures, please use the "Reference Link" (top of analysis)

USA:
֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍ 90,433,990 ֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍֍
USA EXCEEDED 90,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THIS LAST WEEK
THE USA WILL EXCEED 91,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED COVID-19 CASES DURING THE COMING WEEK
+879,886 cases // daily avg = 125,712 = 87.3 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+2,776 deaths // daily avg = 397 = 0.3 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

INDIA:
֍֍֍֍*** 43,639,329 ***֍֍֍֍
+120,765 cases // daily avg = 17,252 = 12.0 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly rising
+231 deaths // daily avg = 33 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady​

BRAZIL:
֍֍֍** 32,896,464 **֍֍֍
BRAZIL WILL EXCEED 33,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES THIS COMING WEEK
+393,995 cases // daily avg = 56,285 = 39.1 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly falling
+1,642 deaths // rolling daily avg = 235 = 0.2 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

FRANCE:
֍֍֍** 32,342,598 **֍֍֍
FRANCE EXCEEDED 32,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 CASES DURING THIS LAST WEEK
+918,483 cases // daily avg = 130,692 = 90.8 new cases every minute, tendency: rising
+442 deaths // daily avg = 63 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: rising
​

If the current avg +cases rates for both Brazil (+56,285) and France (+130,692) hold steady, with France currently -553,866 cases behind Brazil, then that means France is averaging +74,407 more +cases per day than Brazil: 553,866 / 74,407 = 7.4 (8 ) days until France would under these conditions overtake Brazil and move up to rank 3. Brazil has been rank 3 for more than 2 years steady, so this is an important data-point to note. BTW, France's total tests for CW-27 were indeed the same as the week before, it is only data point for all 85 nations that I forgot to type in, is already corrected and will be reflected in the next analysis. Ähm, sorry.

GERMANY:
֍֍********* 29,025,760 *********֍֍
GERMANY EXCEEDED 29,000,000 TOTAL CONFIRMED C-19 DURING THIS LAST WEEK
+630,785 cases // daily avg = 90,109 = 62.6 new cases every minute, tendency: slightly rising
+575 deaths // daily avg = 82 = < 0.1 deaths every minute, tendency: steady
​

THE TOP-85 TABLES​

Here by total cases, descending:



The 85 nations I am tracking accounted for 97.32% of all worldwide cases and 96.26% of all deaths during the week being analysed, making this an excellent statistical tool to use.


Here sorted by +cases / +avg cases:



CW-27 saw no countries with over +1,000,000 +cases but 3 with an average of over +100,000 cases per day (France, USA, Italy). Important to note is that the top five +case getters were not asian nations, just as in the week before. The wave in most of Asia is settling down some while it is firing up in other places across the world.

Here the same 85-nation list, sorted by growth rate:



The worldwide growth-rate in +cases during CW27 rose slightly to +1.14% (it was +0.98% the week before), with Dominican Republis (rank 28 ) indentically tracking the national aggregate. No nation had a growth rate over 10%, or even 6% for that matter. What we are seeing is a general slight upward creep most everywhere.


Here, by trend:



We ended CW-27 with 8 nations at a plateau (the week before it was 10 such nations). 57 nations are now surging forward (the week before it was 63), leaving us with only 20 nations that show their +cases receding (last week it was 12). So, actually, more nations showed a downtick in +cases over the week before, but most of them have relatively small populations.

TRACKED NATIONS UNDER 1,000,000 CASES: FUTUREWATCH
​

I updated this from last week as some nations that had reported zero values in CW-26 reported some jumps in CW-27. So, I am going to publish all three table from both weeks, next to each other. First, by total cases under 1,000,000, descending:





As you can see, Belarus, which had been quiet for weeks on end, suddenly jumped from circa 983,000 to circa 994,000.


Next, by current +case avg, descending:





Here the same data, but sorted by the current +case average, descending, with Guatemala well ahead of the other nations in both weeks.

And finally, by the projected number of days at this rate until that nation jumps over the 1,000,000-mark, in ascending order:





And finally, the same data, this time sorted by the projected number of days before each nation reaches the million mark. Right now, at this current pace, 5 nations were guaranteed to jump over the 1,000,000-line by years end but now that number has increased to 8 and it looks that by year's end, it will be 10.

​

-Stat

 

Hmmm....

COVID Hospitalizations Are Surging In New York City - Joe.My.God. (joemygod.com)

Publishing via Joe My God as NY Daily news blocks requests from European ISPs.

15% of all daily tests are now coming back positive. That's an important data point.

And hospitalizations are going up. That's not good.

 

Same here.
“The number of COVID-19 related deaths per day in Australia, as a proportion of the population, is significantly higher than in the US, UK, France or Canada, according to statistics from Our World in Data. Within Australia, more Victorians are dying than in any state; an average of 18 per day, compared to 12.7 in NSW.

University of Melbourne Professor Nancy Baxter said political leaders were displaying a lack of political will to confront the new Omicron wave, which she said could strain Victoria’s already-overcrowded hospitals.”
From the Melbourne Age today.

 

My eyes are seeing a sudden, massive uptake in +cases in Japan, which clocked in at slightly under +100,000 new cases today, 2022-07-014.

Japan will join the 10-million club by the end of this week, perhaps even tomorrow.

The Omikron B-05 subvariant Summer wave of 2022 Is well underway.

Worldwide, we are heading toward between +7 and 7.5 million new cases for CW-28, when all is said and done.

We are seeing more hospitalizations worldwide. What we are not seeing to-date are increased deaths.

-Stat