Trump and Biden

I think the anti-Trump crowd is every bit as enthusiastic as the Trump followers when it comes to voting.

 

Excellent. A fake internal poll. That's the one we have to publicize.

Good job!

 

Remember Hillary was polling ahead of President Trump, but he still won the election according to the US Constitution. Also, this poll is based on the fake narrative that Trump was responsible for COVID-19 pandemic. You can expect that there will be an October Surprise, Durham Investigation that will lead to DNC and Obama Administration's indictments. This will affect the GOP, Libertarian, and Independent votes. You should also remember that it was the Libertarian votes that gave Hillary a small majority in the voting. Otherwise she would have lost both the popular and Electorate collage votes.

 

There are a couple of issues that will tip the final election results in Trump's favor. One is that people that live in states/cities that are trying to defund the police. The CHOP experiment proves that a lack of cops will enable criminals to commit crimes. No reasonable person would vote for any one that is calling to defund the police. Additionally, there is the issue of Biden's health to include his obvious dementia. Not to mention that many African Americans will probable vote for third party candidates, because of Biden's racism. His "African Americans that can not decide to vote of him, or Trump, are not Black." Then there is the fact that he was instrumental for a lot of African Americans being convicted for drug crimes, and the lengthy prison sentences for their conviction. A racist action that was undone by President Trump. Then there is the fact that, prior to the pandemic, African American unemployment was lower then anytime in recorded history. They may not vote for President Trump, but their voting for a third party would seriously hurt Biden's final vote number of votes. Just like the Libertarian votes hurt Hillary.

 

Trump's reaction to the polling that I listed.......... This was posted today at 8:37 A.M. EST.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
THE VAST SILENT MAJORITY IS ALIVE AND WELL!!! We will win this Election big.

What the media won't admit to is that Trump is still holding on to a sizable Black voting block.
They have thrown everything at herding the Black vote back under the big DNC tent and it hasn't been working very well.

 

Yes!! Exactly what we need to energize Democrats: Trump declaring himself the winner based on a fake internal poll.

Now after 3 and a half years of the Trump administration they REALLY have nothing to lose. They lost it all.

Great propaganda like this is sure to procure Democrats.... maybe not a 50-state sweep. But as close as humanly possible.

 

I like serious analysis--i.e. critical thinking--and this is exemplary of precisely that.

Thank you for your analysis.

 

Please understand that I am emphatically not trying to prove a point; I am simply analyzing the situation.

There is still plenty of time remaining--more than four months, in fact--to turn things around. But it really does not look good at the moment, for President Trump. (Note: I voted for him in 2016; and I intend to do so again this year. But that does not mean that I must cast aside my analytical mind, and become a mere cheerleader.)

As to your questions:

(1) Joe Biden may very well be in the early stages of dementia--and I do not say that lightly; it is certainly nothing to joke about--whereas Hillary Clinton was quite lucid. But the former vice-president is, certainly, much more likable than Hillary Clinton was (or is).

(2) Donald Trump's base has certainly gone nowhere since 2016. But it seems--according to the polls that I have seen--that his support among independents has slipped considerably.

(3) The most recent Fox News poll has Joe Biden leading in Florida by an astounding nine points (49 percent to 40 percent). (The New York Times/Siena poll has it at just six points, 47 to 41.)

In North Carolina, Fox News has it within the margin of error--with Biden leading by a razor-thin two percentage points, 47 to 45. (On the other hand, The New York Times/Siena poll has it at nine percentage points: 49 percent to 40 percent.)

Wisconsin does not look especially like a winner, either: The New York Times/Siena poll has Biden ahead by the huge margin of 49 percent to 35 percent. (I do not have anything from Fox News here.)

As for Ohio, I have not heard anything. But it seems to be trending red--just as the swing states of New Hampshire and Nevada appear to be trending blue--so I would expect President Trump, in all probability, to win it. (Cleveland will go against him; but that will probably not be sufficient.)

(4) No, Minnesota is not "out of reach" for President Trump in 2020. (What was once a deep blue state is now much more competitive.) But I would suggest that it still leans toward Joe Biden.

(5) Evangelical voters will probably show up in numbers no lower than in 2016. But evangelicals are most prominent in the South--which President Trump will carry, anyway (with a few possible exceptions).

Note: I really do not think that Georgia and Texas are in play, as some have hypothesized. President Trump will very likely carry these, in my opinion. And probably Arizona, also--although I am a bit less certain about this.

 

To a certain extent, you have a valid point: Some people may not wish to announce to pollsters that they favor Donald Trump--even if they really do.

But I do think that polls can often be useful tools. (They are, of course, just a "snapshot in time," as they are sometimes described--and not a certain prediction of the future.)

 

That seems plausible--but I think, nonetheless, that it may be mistaken.

First, I am not certain that the American people would have stood for an authoritarian response, by the government, to the coronavirus. (That is precisely what South Korea--one of our allies--had.)

And I rather doubt that most people will vote according to the president's response to the coronavirus. In fact, I heard recently that 94 percent have already made up their minds--hard and fast--as to how they will vote in November.

As for the remaining six percent, I have some serious misgivings about the view that this will decide their vote. (Most of us do not reside in cities or counties that have been especially hard-hit by the virus; so it is far from our top concern.)

 

You are quite correct.

As pollster Frank Luntz, however, pointed out this morning on Fox News Sunday, President Trump needs to change his rhetoric, and appear more empathetic. And he has plenty of time to do this.

The only real question is whether or not he will.

 

I speak of that moment of voting
when idealized thoughts succumb to the practical
like a healthy economy.

Who better to build the post lockdown economy

Biden or Trump
Trump built a healthier economy once.
Bill Clinton, Bush Jr., Obama stimulus NEVER filtered down. Did it?



Moi

Support The Democratic Party
Plantation System ​

 

You may be correct: A poll I saw recently shows that, by almost a two-to-one ratio, prospective Biden voters are animated by a serious concern that Trump might win re-election, rather than by a real fealty toward Joe Biden.

 

This, however, assumes that all voters (or, at least, most of them) vote rationally.

Do you really believe that they do?

 

I'm still concerned about Trump's October surprise. I don't think it has to do with Hunter Biden, or with any sexual "scandal". Those conspiracy theories have run their course and would be too lame for October. I'm sure Trump's campaign knows that that's what everybody's expecting and they will come up with something totally new. Maybe some recording of Biden colluding with China to create coronavirus so he can get elected. Or some sort of evidence that Biden forced the cop who killed George Floyd to put his knee on his neck... something like that. With today's movie technology and the unlimited funds that Trump has at his disposal, anything is possible.

 

Witness the Hillary loss in the GREAT RED MIDDLE
where there is lots of Union Labor
Hillary only needed one State from that Middle where Labor votes.

Now you tell me
was that rational voting enough

 

People tend to be more open to an authoritarian response when things are desperate. If we don't have a vaccine and can't get the virus under control, things will be great depression levels of bad. People will consider out lack of a strong response early on a mistake. People will point to the lack of testing, and the lack of closing airports early on a mistake. They will point to the fact that every other developed nation managed to contain the virus without extreme authoritarian meansures.

People say they have made up their minds, but crisis has a way of changing that. Within a couple months Trump's approval has crumbled from 47% to 41% and if things get dire, it will likely fall to 35% or below. When you are being thrown out of your home, some of your well-established opinions will change very quickly.

 

I think there may have been some of that in 2016 when people were ashamed to admit they were going to vote for Trump. But this year there is no question about who he really is. It's much easier to run when you have no record to defend.

 

I'm glad you are not taking this seriously. It will be better on election night when all of the CNN and MSDNC pundits ask, "How could this possibly happen again?"

 

Trump is a one trick pony who has no idea how to appeal to anyone other than his dyed-in-the-wool stereotypical base which served his purpose.

 

You're going to have periods of ups and downs, one should get too high or too low during either period. I think Trump knows he's going down to defeat, so you are probably right that Trump and company will throw anything and everything at Biden know he hasn't a thing to lose.

I don't think it will be anything close to what you described. I would expect Trump to attack Biden on mental faculties, which has already happened being done by Trump's surrogates. Accusing Biden of being in the first stages of dementia or something akin to that. But I think enough folks just want Trump gone that it will have little sticking power. Especially is Biden chooses a bright, experience young VP.

 

And this is exactly why the Democrats are terrified that they have lost a big chunk of Black votes.

The DNC is throwing the kitchen sink at the Black vote to herd it back under the big tent. But it isn't working.

We may be witnessing the Second Emancipation of the Black population from being under Democrat control.

 

Biden has full onset Dementia.... The DNC is going to regret not acting on this because they thought that he would not deteriorate as fast as he has.

His last big expressive language mistake: "120,000,000 people in the US have died from Covid 19." Even Trump was shocked when he heard that Biden actually said that.

 

Dream on. One speech by Obama should get Biden to 96%.

 

Well... that's what I said. I'm fearing that what you are describing here is very likely if Democrats become complacent by November, like they usually do when they think that the elections are in the bag.

I'm just as serious as you are.