Trump Approval / Disapproval - a fine point to watch

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by Statistikhengst, Jun 17, 2017.

  1. jackdog

    jackdog Well-Known Member

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    I see the OP still believes the validity of polling, even after all the failures . Polls these days should start once upon a time or if the pollster is ex Navy guy then they could start it with " this ain't no ****"
     
  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I will do the complete weekly round up of approval/disapproval polling tomorrow (November 6th), but a WAPO approval poll just came out and the breakdown numbers inside are very telling:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...e2b598d8c00_story.html?utm_term=.b39ff6e3d4b7

    And the actual poll itself (.xml data-format):
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/page.../05/National-Politics/Polling/release_502.xml

    First, the big numbers:

    [​IMG]

    So, among adults, according to WAPO, it's Trump -22 among adults and Trump -20 among RVs.
    The numbers that I highlighted in green are the "strongs". 50% of adults and 51% of RVs "strongly" disapprove of Pres. Trump's job performance.

    The internal breakdown is even more telling, but first, here is how he compares to all the presidents back to Eisenhower (1953) in terms of approval ratings:

    [​IMG]

    And surely this actually means the worst rating for any president in history since polling began, since FDR won in 1932 with +18 and was riding high all the way until 1945 when he died and surely, after the end of the great war, Harry Truman earned huge accolades. So, there is no doubt that Trump's statistic on the eve of his 2016 surprise win represent the worst we have ever seen for a President at this juncture in a presidency.

    Now, back to the WAPO values for November 2017 to this date. Here the breakdown by many categories. Keep your eye not just on the big numbers, but rather, on the smaller numbers that represent "strongly".

    [​IMG]

    As expected, Trump is in disaster-land with Democrats (George W. Bush was NOT in 2001) and well above water among Republicans, but tanking worse than ever among Independents, and please remember, the Independents decide presidential (and most Senatorial) elections in America. Among Is, Trump is at -30 and on top of that, 54% of Is strongy disapprove of him.

    Breaking that down further into ideology (which is not necessarily party):

    [​IMG]

    As with party, we expect Trump to be decimated among Liberals and well on top among Conservatives, but among Moderates (read that as Conservative Democrats, Liberal Republicans and many Is who tend to lean toward one of the two), it's Trump -36 and 55% of moderates disapprove of him. However, surprisingly enough, 25% of Conservatives also disapprove of him. That is 1 in every 4 Conservatives.

    When you break it down by party AND ideology, then the focusing lens becomes clearer:

    [​IMG]

    3% of Liberal Democrats actually strongly approve of the President, for whatever reason. And 7% of Conservative Republicans strongly disapprove. In the middle: Conservative Dems and Moderates (I assume, from both parties, but I could be wrong here), where 72% strongly disapprove of him. So, it's not just that the middle disapproves of the President, it's that the middle STRONGLY disapproves and this designation usually means people who have already so strongly made up their minds, there is no changing there view of this over time.

    Moving on:

    [​IMG]

    The President is underwater among all races, but it's almost a tie among whites. However, even among Whites, 42% STRONGLY disapprove of him. That being said, 33% of Whites STRONGLY approve of him, so the spread among Whites is Trump -4 over all but Trump -9 among those who strongly feel about it. This means that his support among Whites is eroding, plain and simple. When you look into gender:

    [​IMG]

    Trump -14 among men, -28 among women, but 55% of women strongly disapprove of the president, closely tracking with the overall national statistic, whereas 45% of men strongly disapprove of him. I just want to remind that just 8 years ago, pundits were screaming that Obama's fall from about +27 to +17 meant that the sky was falling. Now, with Trump at -20 already just one year since being elected, not only has the sky fallen, we have all sunk into the pit of hell, right?

    Mixing race (white) gender and education:

    [​IMG]

    Among Whites, Trump is underwater EXCEPT among White men without a college degree. Here, 44% of those people strongly approve of him, while only 28% strongly disapprove.

    Speaking of education overall:

    [​IMG]

    Generally, the more educated, the more one diapproves of the President. However, among those who strongly disapprove, the number soars among those with post-graduate education.

    By age:

    [​IMG]
    Trump is underwater in all age categories. We expect a Republican president (according to polling history) to be underwater among the youngest, but generally we expect him to be on par or well in plus territory among the AARP crowd, and even here, he is not. Let's also not forget that the so-called baby-boomers are no longer the 30-39 crowd, they are now the 40-60 crowd, my generation. Among the 30-39 crowd (people born between 1987-1978), he has the highest percentage of people who STRONGLY disapprove of him: 58%. These are the people who will be most likely to turnout around 95% for the next election.

    When we look at religion, WAPO focused mainly on Whites and their Christian faith:

    [​IMG]

    Among White Catholics, it's pretty much a tie. And among White Evangelicals, they are still by far his strongest base, where he is at +48.
    Even so, 25% of White Evangelicals disapprove of the President, and of them, 20% of the total STRONGLY disapprove of him. So, 1 on 5 White Evangelical STRONGLY disapproves of him. This is important, when you consider that President Obama won 25% of the Evangelical vote in 2008 and about 22% in 2012, but here we are talking about Evangelicals of all races (White, Black, Latino, etc), so the assumption was that Romney got well more than 90% of the White evangelical vote and surely Trump did even better. So, to see this kind of dissatisfaction among WHITE evangelicals is indeed a surprise. Still, a +48 is a +48 and it is by far ony 1 of 2 good statistics for the President in the entire poll, the other being rural America.

    By region:

    [​IMG]

    For months, Trump has been tanking in all four major geographical regions of the Union, but his numbers have particularly eroded in the South, which is supposed to be the big GOP bastion. 50% of Southerners STRONGLY disapprove of the President. 46% of Midwesterners likewise. When you look at the numbers overall, Trump is actually doing a tick better in the West than in the South. Need I remind that not all that long ago, President's Gerald Ford (1976) and Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984) won ALL of the continental west (EVERYTHING west of the Mississippi), and Reagan even picked-up Hawaii in 1984....

    And finally....

    [​IMG]


    In Rural America, Trump is still above water, by +7, and by +6 among the "stronglys", but he is deeply underwater in Suburbia and it is the Suburban counties that win presidential elections for a Republican. I think it is also a pretty fair statement (although I cannot prove it entirely) that there is a pretty decent correlation between moderates/independents and suburban America, and so it's not very surprising that 50% of suburbanites strongly disapprove of Trump. It's also a pretty strong correlation between white rural America and the main concentration of Evangelicals, as well.

    So, it's not just that Trump is tanking very badly on the eve of he 2016 election, it's that he is tanking very badly in practically every single subcategory and on top of that, breaks are appearing in his wall of support from his most loyal base.

    Now, this is just one poll and I would love to do the same for a pollster like Rasmussen, but unlike WAPO, Ras doesn't publish these kind of internals for public consumption and the few internals they do provide are hidden behind a paywall.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2017
  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    That made absolutely no sense at all. Please try again and this time, if you are capable of it, do try to bring some actual facts to the table. You wrote "after all of the failures". Really? Which? Are you referring to 3 of 50 states from 2016? Really?

    LOL
     
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  4. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    There is no "voter fraud" aside from the GOP voter suppression and the potential Russian voting roll hacking.
     
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  5. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Excellent work, Stat!

    This is the first poll with any data that might reflect the impact of the SC's indictments. It demonstrates that the more people get to know the BLOTUS the less they like what they are seeing. If he is still in office this time next year he will be an albatross that will sink the GOP's hopes in 2018. The trend is negative and there is no sign of it ever turning around now. WYSISWYG and with the BLOTUS it is not a pretty picture.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On October 30th, 7 days ago, according to RCP, President Trump's approval-disapproval was at: -17.3
    Today, Monday, November 6th, one year after his election, President Trump's approval-disapproval stands at -17.9



    [​IMG]

    Note this sentence from my posting last week:

    And sure enough, the Emerson poll has jumped out of the statistic, only to be replaced by another outlier: yougov, which shows Trump -9, and yet, not in spite of that, Trump is almost at -18.

    The details from the newest WAPO poll are already in a posting of mine from yesterday, so let's look at the internals from the other polls:


    YouGov:

    [​IMG]

    At Trump -9, this is the most gracious poll to the President. Strongly disapprove: 41%.

    IPSOS/REUTERS:

    [​IMG]

    Strongly disapprove: 47%

    CBS:

    [​IMG]

    Overall, Trump -17
    CBS doesn't release stats by "strongly approve" or "strongly disapprove"

    PEW:

    [​IMG]

    and this from Pew:

    [​IMG]

    Strongly disapprove: 51%

    PPP:

    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Interestingly enough, in the PPP poll, Trump is above-water with the 30-45 crowd, but please note, most pollsters poll 30-49 and not 30-45.
    As with CBS, PPP does not include "strongly" as a subcategory.

    Rasmussen:

    [​IMG]


    Trump Strongly disapprove: 47%
    That makes for an approval index of -19 when you subtract strongly disapprove from strongly approve (see: 2nd column in the table)

    Oh, and BTW, a comparison to former Pres. Obama, same time-frame, 8 years ago:

    [​IMG]

    Obama Strongly disapprove: 41%
    That makes for an approval index of -13 when you subtract strongly disapprove from strongly approve (see: 2nd column in the table)
    So, even with Rasmussen, the most Republican friendly pollster of all of the accrediteds without a D or R next to their name, Trump is doing worse now than Obama back then. I remember those days when Obama was above water in every single poll EXCEPT Rasmussen and Conservatives grasped at that straw to scream "see, he's a failure!" I wonder if they will grasp at that same straw now...

    I believe the other polls in the aggregate were already analysed one week ago.

    So, Trump -17.9 with very large percentages very strongly disapproving of his job performance, just like one week ago, only just a little worse.

    -Stat
     
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  7. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On October 30th, 2017, Trump's approval-disapproval stood at: -17.3 (see: posting above this one)
    On November 6th, 2017, the eve of the first anniversary of his 2016 election, his approval-disapproval stood at: -17.9
    Today, November 23rd, 2017, on the 54th anniversary of the assassination of JFK, Trump's approval-disapproval stands at: -17.3

    So, within one full month, nothing has really changed at all:

    [​IMG]

    Try as it may, even Rasmussen cannot get Trump to anything better than -10. And these polls were mostly taken while the President was away in Asia and therefore more out of public view. When you look at the internals, the only thing keeping the President from suddenly hitting 30% is: the economy, which in many ways (and without a budget for next year, still running on the directives of the Obama administation from 2016) is doing well. Should the economy turn south, then so will these numbers. Again, the most damning poll of them all is: IBD/TIPP, a very Conservative, free-market oriented pollster. When a Republican President is tanking this badly by International Business Daily (IBD), then you know that not all is well in Trumpland.

    For the 9th month in a row, the President's average with the American public is below 40% approval and in historical terms, the worst approval/disapproval ratings for any President in history at this juncture in an administration.

    Happy Thanksgiving to the PF community.
     
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  8. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On November 23rd, 2017, approximately 3 weeks ago, Pres. Trump's approval/disapproval aggregate, according to RCP, was: -17.3

    Today, December 15th, 2017, his aggregate is now: -20.5

    [​IMG]

    Of the 12 polls in the aggregate "gene-pool", 3 have Trump at under 35% and 3 have him at 40% or 41%. The spreads go from -28 (Reuters and Pew) to -15 (PPP-D).
    Yes, in this case, the Democratic Pollster out of North Carolina, PPP, is showing the best numbers for the President.

    I don't have time for all the internals, but three pollsters are worth noting.

    First, PEW (which polls approval/disapproval on a quarterly basis):

    [​IMG]

    According to Pew, the President (who is at -28 in the 11th month of his administration) has experienced some slippage in pretty much every category, but a large amount of slippage in some key categories: women, Moderate Republicans, White Evangelical Protestants, White non-college grads, and the elderly (50 and above).

    So, according to Pew, his base is cracking.

    IBD-TIPP:

    [​IMG]

    Again, as with PEW, we see a huge gender gap and the approval/disapproval among women in this poll tracks closely with the PEW poll.

    Also, only 79% of Republicans? This means that 2 out of every 10 in his own party disapprove of his performance. That is a very telling number.

    Quinnipiac:

    [​IMG]

    49% strongly disapprove of Trump's performance and that number is reflected pretty uniformly in all age categories. As with Pew and IBD/TiPP, Trump is tanking badly among women (30/62) and he is also underwater with Whites (46/49). 63% disapproval among Independents (and that is the most critical factor of all, looking forward to elections), with 52% of Independents strongly disapproving of him.

    And for good measure Monmouth (here the complete .pdf):



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]


    The Monmouth Independent statistic tracks closely with Quinnipiac, but the statistic among Independent women is exceptionally brutal.
    And in the Monmouth poll, he is not doing well among well-to-do Americans, either.

    This is the first time since the end of July, if I recall, that Trump's AGGREGATE has hit -20 again.

    Those are dismal numbers for a President in his first year and an omen for his party in the upcoming 2018 mid-term elections.

    -Stat
     
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  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Today, the quarterly AP-NORC presidential approval poll came out, with the same -35 for President Trump as in Q3:

    http://www.apnorc.org/PDFs/AP-NORC December 2017/AP Custom Poll Topline December_Trump.pdf



    [​IMG]
    51% of respondents STRONGLY disapprove of the President's performance.
    RCP never took the time to record this poll in Q3, in spite of the fact that it is from an accredited pollster.

    The partisan self-identification in the poll is: D45 / R 34 / I20, D+11
    Likely both the Ds and Rs are overrrepresented in this poll and the Is are underrepresented.
    M 48 / F 52
    White 62 / Black 12 / Latino 16
    Urban 28 / suburban 48 / rural 23


    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 17, 2017
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  10. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    About 6 days ago, President Trump's approval-disapproval, according to RCP, was at -20.6

    Today, Friday, December 22nd, 2017, it lies at -18.2

    [​IMG]

    But it's clear to notice that RCP does not include all polls that other respected aggregates include, unless of course the polls serve RCP's purposes. Here is the aggregate from HuffPo:

    [​IMG]

    the current HuffPo aggregate shows Trump approval at: -20.1

    Here are the polls that HuffPo has followed in the same time frame as RCP:



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]

    Of course, repeaters are not included, but rather, the latest version. But what is here in the HuffPo aggregate that is not in the RCP aggregate is the ARG poll (Trump -28 ) and the AP/NORC poll (Trump -35). Pretty shoddy of RCP to deliberately leave out polls by respected pollsters, to say the least.

    So, going into Christmas 2017, President Trump is doing verifiably worse than any other US-President ever during this junction of an administration, ever since polling came into being.

    Merry Christmas, Mr. President.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2017
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  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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  12. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Some specific state approval polls for the President:

    GEORGIA, AJC poll:

    https://www.myajc.com/news/state--r...ratings-georgia-erode/W4yIQDaAlxFbYmBG9LBTRM/

    Trump 36.7 approve / 58.7 disapprove, -22

    Yes, that poll is from, of all places, Georgia.

    ALABAMA (older, but worth noting):

    https://andersonrobbins.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/111617_complete_nov_AL_topline_web.pdf

    Obama (as former President) 52 approve / 45 disapprove, +7
    Trump 49 approve / 48 disapprove, +1

    Again, that was from ALABAMA.
     
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  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    On January 15th, 2018, the aggregate was: Trump -16.7.

    Today, January 23rd, 2018, the aggregate is: Trump -16.2, almost unchanged.

    2018-01-023 Trump approval.png

    Please note that in one week's time, in the Rasmussen poll, undoubtedly the most Trump-friendly pollster out there, it has gone from Trump -6 to Trump -14, an erosion of 8 points. And for those who like to use the LV argument (has some merit, I think), RAS does use LVs, although I find it inappropriate for presidential approval polling. That alone could be a fine discussion point among those here who actually like to debate and not just troll.

    An important point to note: the Gallup polling has moved from rolling polling with daily results to a weekly aggregate, posted just once a week. Many are unhappy with this decision, because daily comparisons to former presidents will as of this time no longer be possible. That being said, after the fiasco of 2010 and 2012, maybe it would not be so bad were Gallup just to ride off into the sunset. Here a new compilation of their results, as weekly aggregates:

    2018-01-023 Trump approval gallup weekly.png
    Going from the bottom of the table to to the top, here are the aggregate margins: -19, -19, -24, -23, -25, -20, -16, -21, -19, -23

    Please notice how the margins expand, then contract, then expand, then contract. I just made an argument about that phenomenon HERE in the generic polling thread and recommend that PF members read that. That would also be a fine discussion point among intelligent people.

    Please note that in this batch of polling, the result that is actually the friendliest to the President is from CNN (Trump -10), a news network that he calls "fake news". LOL.

    One more poll to note today, the Qpiac poll. They have a handy-dandy trend-graph worth looking at:

    [​IMG]

    The graph shows very well the slight expansions and contractions in margin over a long period of time. Please note that after the Nazi-march in Charlottesville and the failed Obamacare repeal vote in late July, 2017, Trump's disapproval spiked over 60% and then the top-line (disapproval) settled just under the 60 mark. If you look deep into polling internals (which I have done many, many times on this thread), you will notice that the % of people who not only disapprove of the President's performance, but rather, strongly disapprove, is hovering at or slightly over 50% and this phenomenon has been going on for months now. And the only thing that is holding Trump at an aggregate of 39% approval is "his base", and nothing more. This is a position that no ruling party wants to find it's President in.

    And when I started this thread on June 17th, 2017, 7 months ago, the approval / disapproval aggregate was: Trump -13.7 and since then, that value represents his high-water mark in approval polling. His aggregate has only gotten worse since then, having bottomed- out at -20 at least twice, settled at -17 to -18 many times, and currently, at between -16 to -17.

    Also, on that date, Rasmussen showed Trump at 50/50 in approval polling, going against all othe polling in the known universe. Today, in Rasmussen: Trump -14.

    One final, very salient point, one I am going to hammer home many times over: on November 14th, 2010, shortly after Obama's Democratic Party just got a "pasting" at the mid-term elections, "democratic" former pollsters/pundits Pat Cadell (he was a pollster for Jimmy Carter in the 1970s...) and Doug Schoeni wrote a very brash op-ed in the WAPO, one that made the rounds in the right-wing-o-sphere for months on end.

    The OP was called "One and done: To be a great president, Obama should not seek reelection in 2012"

    Not in the op-ed but implicit therein were Obama's polling numbers. So, let's look at his numbers from November, 2010:

    2018-01-023 Obama approval Rasmussen 2010 - november.png

    From November 3rd, 2010 to November 15th, 2010, the time frame surrounding the Cadell/Schoeni Op-Ed, in Rasmussen, Obama's approval/disapproval ranged from -3 directly before the Midterms to -10 on the day that the OP was released, to -8 a couple of days afterward. Obama's lowest approval number in Rasmussen at this time (verifably the most Obama UNfriendly pollster over 9 long years) was: 44%. Trump is currently at: 42%. That is now historical FACT.

    Also, in GALLUP at that time:

    2018-01-023 Obama approval Gallup 2010 - november.png
    If you go to the link and scroll over November, 2010, you will see values of Obama -2 to Obama -4, not like the Trump -23 that we see right now. That is also historical FACT.

    And here is the RCP aggregate for Obama, Oct/Nov/Dec 2010:

    2018-01-023 Obama approval RCP average late 2010.png

    As proof, here the LINK to the Qpiac poll from November, 2010, showing Obama -5. You can see that in the November time frame, there were even two ties (Pew and CBS, 44/44 and 45/45 respectively), so you can clearly see that Obama's average around the 2010 midterms, including Rasmussen, was not even at -5 (compared to right now, Trump -16.2).

    So, come November 2018, after the midterms, if Trump is still between -16 and -20, are Republican pollsters and pundits going to put out an op-ed telling the President "one and done"? Or is this just a thing that gets published when a Democrat is only slightly underwater in approval/disapproval?

    Yes, there is a partisan tinge to my question, I admit it very openly. But the question is still very, very valid.

    Back then, Obama's numbers were just slightly underwater and the right-wing world was screaming "the world is coming to an end!!" from the rooftops. Now, with Trump mired FOR MONTHS ON END between -16 and -20, where's the right-wing screaming about the same?

    Fact is, no President, since polling began, has done this poorly among the American public in his first year, and more importantly, no President has done this poorly for so long, and so consistently at that. Now, you can lay out arguments that it has everything to do with his leadership style or lack of it, but that is irrelevant. Fact is that a large majority of the American public, and not just a plurality, disapprove of this president, and they disapprove of him very, very strongly. It remains to be seen where his polling goes in 2018, but with the contentious 2018 mid-terms in this year, where the party in power tends to get a pasting, his numbers are likely to get worse, not better. And should the economy tank (a distinct possibility, when you study American economics, and not one that I relish, would not wish it upon anyone, anywhere), then he will likely lose his base as well.

    -Stat
     
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  14. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Another awesome detailed and informative post, Stat.

    :applause:

    The argument for LV polling is that it focuses on those who are going to vote rather than all of those who are eligible to vote. Given GOP voter suppression it would naturally favor the GOP. The downside is that it excludes first time voters and those who vote sporadically. 2008 showed how not polling all those eligible to vote can exclude a significant part of the electorate.

    The point that you made was about the STRONG disapproval of the BLOTUS locked in around 50% is significant IMO. This is the first and only time that I have ever come across something this astounding. Yes, strong disapproval does happen for all presidents from time to time usually depending upon a particular circumstance or event. It does not persist to the degree that it is doing now. When half the nation strongly disapproves consistently it is time to do something about that because it becomes incredibly difficult to win back those voters when they are needed at election time.

    As far as the BLOTUS losing his base if/when the economy tanks I seriously doubt that will happen myself. Instead I see the strong disapproval moving from 50% to 60% with fewer undecideds but the base won't budge. They are emotionally invested in their "god-emperor" and he can do no wrong in their eyes.
     
  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Yes, many make the argument that LV polling favors the Republicans, but also in the 2016 election, there was a plethora of polls that used LV that gave Hillary a bigger winning margin than with RV, and those polls ended up being right, for instance, California and Oregon. If anything, LV tend to increase the trend of one specific area.

    I think that it is, however, inappropriate for pollsters to poll only LV for presidential approval because there is nothing in the Constitution that says that a citizen is bound to swear on a bunch of bibles that he or she plans to vote in the next round in order for his or her voice to be heard right now as to the President's performance. There are a lot of elderly people who may be too infirm to vote, but doesn't their opinion still count? Approval/disapproval should be more than just testing the waters for the next election. it should be a pulse check for a president to take pause and consider if he is really doing the best for the nation.

    Just 14 sort years ago, in the presidential election of 2004, it was a big talking point that then Pres. Bush's approval was slightly under 50 and he would likely lose. it ended up that he won re-election and Karl Rove noted that 48 is the new 50, referring to approval percentages. But 36 is a far cry from 48.....

    And yes, the statistic over those who really, really strongly disapprove of Trump's performance is indeed one for the history books.

    Nice to hear from you.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
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  16. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Irrational denial is the only response by hardcore Trump supporters to Americans' enduring, consistent disapprobation of their hero, but they are driven by emotion, not reason.

    Incapable of accepting the repeatedly-reenforced empirical reality, they fantasize that there is some vast, coordinated conspiracy of public survey organizations to falsify results, or that polling itself must be invalid in some inexplicable way.

    They parrot the fake meme they have been issued that the 2016 presidential polls were wildly awry, so that all polling is, therefore, bogus. (In fact, the final aggregate projection in the last election was only 1.1% off, closer than in 2012, and had shown a steadily diminishing gap as election day approached.) Despite their not liking the results, polling is valid, some surveys more accurate than others, but generally consistent, even those that are habitually skewed reflective of the trends shown by the more accurate ones.

    Nor can they explain, if there is some pervasive "liberal!" bias in political polling, why do not all the well-funded conservative interests and media outlets promote alternative polls that reflect their bias? Is the best they can manage Rasmussen that currently shows their Glorious Leader at 42% Approval, 56% Disapproval?

    If there is one significant variable in predicting election results (Inevitably, becoming more precise the closer tot he election) it is the level of motivation of the electorate. While most Americans acknowledge that Trump stinks, one demographic that appears especially motivated is women.

    In 2016, men and women differed in their voting choice that year more than they had in any other modern presidential election.
    Sexual predators in high places are being toppled at an unprecedented rate as of late.The times do not favour an arrogant old skank who boasted, "When you’re a star they let you do it! You can do anything! - grab them by the p_ssy!” and who currently stands accused of multiple instances of such depravity.

    In 2016, Trump was barely able to get away with his squalid shtick.

    2020 is not Trump's year.

    2018 will confirm the progress in societal values that has been achieved.

    Irrational denial of the comprehensive November poll is not an option.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2018
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