Trump Approval / Disapproval - a fine point to watch

Interesting that you brought up 2018. There were 3 instances where midterms resulted in the House and/or Senate changing parties. The reasons for these turnovers included corruption, economic issues and gross incompetence. Right now the BLOTUS has 2 of the reasons already in the bag and since a recession is overdue there might even be a trifecta of reasons for 2018 to be a turnover of power.

 

I am absolutely convinced by these arguments, that Trump has just a 2% chance of winning the presidency and that Ossoff is a shoe-in.

 

Example: DNC invests $35 million in failed GA special election = DNC's 2017 FEC disclosure filing: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...ort-shows-dnc-finished-june-3-3-million-debt/ 2018 is a wash.

 

2016 was an aberration because the Russians meddled in the election.

This resulted in a wake up call to the electorate.

The results of the special elections reflect that wake up call to the electorate.

The factors that will influence the outcome of the 2018 midterms have been documented.

You have every right to believe that the 2018 elections won't alter the current status quo.

 

If the special elections were a wake up call, the Dems have hit the snooze button ...

 

It is the extremist alt right using the snooze button if paltry single digit wins in safe red districts does not alarm them.

 

Yes, winning the World Series by a single home run just spoils the victory, and takes the luster off the trophy.

 

ACtually, the special elections, until now all in rock solid red districts, clearly show a wave forming for 2018, just as the special elections in 2009 and early 2010 clearly showed a GOP wave coming.

in GA-06, it wasn't even supposed to be a close. Price won his seat in 2016 by +23 points. Handel only won by +2.4

 

Here are "statistical facts" that matter.

Polling the general public is 100% worthless. The ONLY poll is polling VOTERS WHO VOTE - and then only a very small percentage of those. Everyone else might as well be people living in China or Brazil - they are irrelevant. In the entire USA, there are MAYBE 6 to 7 million adults who matter and who will decide every national election. Finding them and persuading them is the entire ballgame.

It also is a well known fact that people who identify as Republican turn out in higher percentage than those who identify as Democrat, and seniors turn out in higher numbers than younger voters.

If Trump is -12 for real in a poll of ALL adults, it means he would win an election by a small margin. However, online polls also are a TERRIBLE measure as they will heavily lean towards younger people, while older people are Trump's #1 base and who least live on the Internet.

Has NO ONE on the forum done political targeting? You never, ever waste time on everyone. You try to identify those VOTERS likely to VOTE who are truly swing voters in swing areas. Nobody else matters in the slightest. Literally, everyone else is totally irrelevant. In every general election, 95% of adult Americans and over 90% of voters - when all the states certain to go one way or another on party lines are also eliminated - are completely irrelevant.

What do those 10% of swing voters in a dozen swing states think? No one else matters but them. Trump knew where they were and Clinton's team truly did not. For example, in Florida the media endlessly talksa about the I-4 corridor. So that is whether Clinton figured Trump was battling it. Thus, Clinton tried to lock down Miami while fighting it out on the I-4 corridor. But Trump's people understood the real place to win or lose was the upper West Coast and rural panhandle areas. Anyone who drove thru this area would have been stunned at the level of support for Trump. It was like entering Trumpland akin to Disneyland. Trump signs, billboards and bumper stickers everywhere. People literally at state highway intersections putting on Trump bumperstickers on cars and trucks fast as they could put them on. Not only did Trump massively beat Clinton statistically, but in unprecedented voter turnout.

Trump knew where those swing voters were and what they cared about. In Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennslyvania. Clinton was looking to sweep the nation. Trump was playing to tactically win the election on a technicality, ie electors - and he was correct.

These national popularity polls are interesting, but virtually worthless and even deceptive. Polls show Trump supporters are hardened in their support. Increasingly, Democrats - other than the hardcore partisans - are increasingly disheartened by their own party. Thinks in reality in terms of voters look good for Trump right now. Doesn't matter whether most people like him or not. Most people are irrelevant.

 

Most Americans consistently agree that Trump stinks: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

Trump worshippers, consequently, agree that polls stink.

No poll is needed to know that no one is surprised by either subjective olfactory impression.

 

Here is the poll that really matters, my friend






.

 

So many words to prove that you did not understand the difference between "approval" and "favorable"

An approval poll is not a popularity poll.

Learn the difference, if you can.

 

So, Trump's approval/disapproval average as of 27.07.2017 but BEFORE the GOP ObamacareRepealFail of 28.07.2017:





Currently, Pres. Trump's approval/disapproval is still heavily underwater, at -15.7. Most telling is the Rasmussen poll (the only one that showed him at 50/50 about one month ago), now at -18 and for the first time, showing Trump hitting 59 disapprove, and this is among LVs.

Now that the third attempt in circa two days time to repeal Obamacare has failed, we should see some change in Trump's numbers next week. I also expect that Scaramucci's very profane comments may also play a role, here. So, let's see what the aggregate looks like in all polling where the polling starts no earlier than 28.07.2017 (today). I suspect that within 14 days from now, the aggregate will be pretty much polling that started today or later.

One of the main disadvantages of holding a vote in the middle of the night in the Senate is that McConnell did that on a Thursday night going into a Friday, which means a full 3-day weekend news cycle to literally bang the GOP and Trump on the head for this failure. And make no doubt about it: this is a major failure for those who wanted to see Obamacare repealed.

One more point: the GOP base is shrinking. In too many polls, the self-identification of voters is showing a decreased percentage of self-identifying Republicans. I could call it an outlier were it just a couple of polls, but in way too many, the Ds and the Is have a massive edge. So, let's say, "84%" approval of the President among self-identified Republicans is impressive were they to be 35% of the electoral landscape, but likely they are less than 25% or less of the electoral landscape, a true minority. Now, if these numbers are wrong, I will gladly revise and even apologize for in any way trying to give false information, but even Rasmussen, which certainly is finding more registered Rs than any other pollster out there, has the President at -18, and as already mentioned, among likely voters - a screen I find totally inappropriate for approval/disapproval, fav/unfav polling.

Either way, the fact that just over six months into his fledgling presidency, Donald Trump is at this juncture doing worse among the US public than any other president in recorded polling history, going back about 80 years. That is fact.

 

The Mooch is just a Mini-Me version of the BLOTUS!

Doubling down on the bile and vitriol coming from the Whitehouse makes no sense whatsoever. I can understand what Bannon and Priebus were opposed to this appointment and why Spicer bailed.

As you pointed out the profane diatribes by the Mooch are probably going to play a role in driving down the ratings even further.

The genuine conservatives have already bailed from the GOP (I have a thread going as to why) and I saw another thread by an extremist alt rightist wanting to bail from the GOP too. It is way too late to say that the wheels have come off because the GOP trainwreck has been rolling over purely on it's momentum up until now.

 

So, 5 days later and without a complete rollover in polling following the failure of Trumpcare, followed now by the removal of Reince Priebus, the bringing in of a General (Kelly) and then the firing of Scaramucci, Trump's approval has moved from -15.7 to -16.9, deep, deep, deep underwater:





It is also the first time that Right-leaning Rasmussen has the President over 60% disapproval (61%) and for the first time since he was inaugurated, both Rasmussen and Gallup have the same spread: approval -22

His best "numbers" are all from the beginning of July and soon, they will all fall out of the statistic.

A word about 3-day rolling polling: this is what both Rasmussen and Gallup do, only their rolling did not necessarily start on the same day, nor do they use the same type of survey group, and yet, both have the president at -22, after having just finished his SIXTH month in office.

So, to watch for:

-the aftermath of all three failed Trumpcare votes in the US Senate (last week)
-the big splash of Anthony Scaramucci on the scene, the ensuing tweeting / interviewing drama
-the unceremonious dumping of Priebus
-the lateral move of Gen. Kelly over to WH Chief-of-Staff
-the unceremonious dumping of Scaramuccio after only 10 days on the job
-the fact that a number of organisations (BSA, the police - had to distance themselves from the President after he gave wildly inappropriate speeches to their organisations).
-Russia expelled 700 US personnel and Pres. Trump has still not commented on this development, nor has he signed the veto-proofs sanctions package from the US Congress into law (a promise he made)

With ALL of these factors in play and considering that:

-Obamacare is STILL the law of the land and in spite of RW lying, in only 29 counties there are no providers. If he cuts off assistance to providers for low income insurees, then he chops off his own hand.
-No tax reform has happened
-The wall still does not exist and Mexico has still not paid for it
-The stock market has rallied, but the worth of the US-Dollar has steeply declined in comparison to other currencies

ALL of these things come to play in the minds of people who are asked their approval or disapproval of our 45th President.

I cannot imagine his numbers improving in the next weeks at all. As a matter of fact, with his August vacation, people will have more time to read and think about the 6 months work of stuff that just happened in the last 11 days....

And just to compare, exactly 8 years ago today, on August 1, 2009, this was Pres. Obama's approval/disapproval average:



That is EXACTLY the same sample time-frame as for Trump: from July 8th to July 30th. Average: +13.8

And to be very Rasmussen specific:



On July 31, 2009, Ras' rolling polling had Democratic President Obama at -3 and on August 1, 2009, he was at +1. Now, compare that to -22 for Republican President Trump as of July 31, 2017, exactly 8 years later and at exactly the same juncture in his presidency.

So, to recapitulate:

Right now, Trump approval average = -16.9
8 years ago on this day, Obama approval average = +13.8
That's a difference of 30.7 points. That is very, very large.

Why did I not compare the RCP page from 2009 to the RCP page from 2017? Well, go to RCP yourself and see how all of a sudden, 2009 is not in chronological order:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

(have fun, scrolling is a real pain in the butt)

-Stat

 

Probably way too early to call the current trend a "death spiral" but UNLESS it either plateaus or trends upwards that is where it is headed.

At this stage the ONLY thing that the BLOTUS has going FOR him is Kelly as Chief of Staff. That raises the question as to whether he can turn the current "state of ****" into a viable "ship of state"?

At this point I am going to give him the benefit of the doubt with the caveat that loyal service to the nation does not equate into loyalty towards someone who is (a) harming the nation, and (b) might have colluded with a foreign nation. Either or both of those could mean Kelly resigning. But since they are TBD at this stage let's just wait and see. At the very least he has a heavy lift just to bring the BLOTUS out of his self imposed negative territory.

Kelly's first job is to backfill the growing staff void that the BLOTUS just exacerbated with the Bonfire of the Vulgarities fizzle. He is down an additional 3 positions over and above the vacant Comms Director. Going to be tough to find those who are so desperate for work that they are willing to blacken their own political resume with a stint on the BLOTUS trainwreck. For someone with ambitions of being taken seriously in the political sphere it would not be considered an asset worthy experience.

 

And in just ONE day, with new polls in the mix, Trump has moved from -16.9 to -18.7:




Interestingly enough, both Rasmussen and Gallup, which were both tracking at -22 just two days ago, are still in sync with each other and not tracking at -24.

Do you see the red-line I put in the middle? It separates the polls that were taken until mid-month from the polls that were taken after July 20th or so. You can see a measurable jump in the disapproval margin, from the minus-teens into the minus-twenties. Easy for the naked eye to see.

Even more eye-popping is the Quinnipiac poll (Quinnipiac was very hard on Clinton in 2016, if you will remember), which has Trump at -28, 33/61, making for three major national polls in a row with the President at over 60% disapproval, and that in the middle of his 7th month in office. But the Qpiac internals are even more telling:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2476




That the statistic is so lopsided between Ds and Rs is no surprise, but notice how closely the IND figures track to the overal statistic in the poll. Trump does best among Whites with no college degree (-7) and worst among Democrats (-94) and non-whites (-65). But even among Republicans, 17% disapprove of the President, an unusual statistic when one asks along party lines.

But deeper within the statistic, this:



Among those who "strongly" disapprove, this is the most important number, because these are generally people who are not going to be changing their minds any time soon. Of that 61% that disapproves of Pres. Trump's job performance, the vast majority of them (90.2% of 66%, or 55% of the entire survey sample) "strongly" disapprove of Trump's job performance, for a variety of reasons. When a president is underwater, the strongest danger signals are when:

1.) a majority "strongly" disapproves and
2.) that majority is represented evenly over a number of rubriks, in this case, Democrats, Independents, Men, Women, Whites with College degrees, etc.. as a matter of fact, the only two rubriks where less than a majority disapproves of Trump's performance are: men and whites without college education. And even among the 17% of Republicans who do not approve of Trump's performance, 59% of them, or 10% of Republicans overall in this survey, strongly disapprove of Trump.

Tomorrow, I will compare the internals of this poll to a Quinnipiac Poll of Obama during one of his underwater periods (I need to do some digging first).

The makeup of the poll:
D 33
R 23
I 37
Other 7
D +10

This is one of many, many polls showing a considerable voter self-identification edge for Ds.

And we are seeing just the beginning of polls that are starting to include the events of the last 10 days in the thinking process of the survey group...

One final note, going back to Ramussen: when I created this thread, the first posting had a Ras poll showing the President at +/-0 (parity) - 50/50. He is now at -24 with Rasmussen, so in less than one month, he has gone 24 points underwater with a pollster who is very right-friendly. Now, THAT says something.

-Stat

 

Just ask people which news they mostly watch. If they watch abc, cbs, nbc, cnn, and/or msnbc, they will be unsupportive of Trump. Any other will be supportive of Trump.

 

So do you have any data to back that up or are you just sharing your opinion?

 

The sharp drop probably corresponds to the Mooch debacle. If it swings back then it will probably be the potential of Kelly to bring about stability. However even with that positive your comment about the overall 55% strong negative is going to a really hard challenge to turn around.

I highlighted the part about the Qpac party affiliation self identification since I believe that it is an important metric to watch going into 2018. There has not been a lot of attention paid by the media to the number of Americans who have been energized to get out and do something on the political front that goes beyond just protesting and contacting their Congressional representatives. These are people who want to run for office and to actively help those who want to run for office. It is coming from the grass roots of the left because the Dems are not behind this effort. If anything they are playing catchup because they haven't seen anything like this in a very long time.

Yes, it happened on the right with Ron Paul and the origins of the Tea Party in 2007 but this is more than just trying to elect an outsider candidate for potus. Those on the left are looking to run for local, state and federal offices themselves. They are highly motivated by the failure of the GOP to govern in the interests of We the People. In many respects they are the "revolution" that Bernie ignited. 2018 is going to be the first real test of this political sea change. The political pendulum is currently over to the hard right but if this change is happening then we will see it show itself in about 15 months time. NJ and VA are not likely to be significant indicators in 2017 since both are blue states and Christie is making life really hard for his heir apparent to gain much traction.

The disapproval of the BLOTUS is doing positive things for the American people and making them realize that in order to keep their freedoms they had better be prepared to do something about it.

 

Just reminding people of a self evident truth which is likely to be more trustworthy than this or that poll. If you need data for that, then scratch your head as an exception to the rule.

 

The Clinton poll numbers were for two days only on one poll. Numbers immediatly before and after were in the mid forties. There is no comparison between a two day blip and a very steady downward trend.

 

Desperate diversions that contrive to evoke Clinton, Obama, or Meat Loaf, for that matter, do not confront the dismal, present reality:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
​

There is only one President of the United States, and most Americans agree that he stinks.

 

Did they oversample Democrats by 12 points?

Whatever makes you feel better, Jester. Your frail psyche constantly needs reiinforcing on Trump because your subconscious understands how and why you and the school of prog fish threw away your integrity long ago.

 

I am not the poor pathetic loser loser that has to pretend to have a Mensa IQ. But feel free to post the data that shows the latest poll oversampled Democrats by 12 points.