Trump Celebrates 'Fantastic Evening' of Endorsed Candidate Wins

This is a time will tell. People can read all of these numbers differently, I look at all of them and think the Democrats will retain the senate and lose the house. Plus there's the 3-4 governorships the Democrats will pick up. I go by today's numbers, so what I refer to is if the election were held today. Time will privide the answers.

 

If the Election were held today wouldn't you be surprised?

All these polls are for Primaries. They're for thoroughly and entirely brainwashed Republicans, all they're showing is how much the Q-Anons still want to suck Trump's Magic Mushroom. The only poll that counts will be in 2024, and on that date, the only things the Republicans will have to run on will be charging your kids for college again and canceling your Social Security to give Elon Musk a Negative Income Tax.

 

Doombug I am really having a difficult time believing anyone other than a Russian spammer at this point would write what you have.


to be or not to be that is the question

 

Agree with "time will tell'. When the outcome is still uncertain, I think we all have a tendency to see what we want to see.

 

Can they win a general election?

 

I agree.

 

~ The Democrats themselves are doing a great job getting Republicans elected without Trump’s help.

​

 

Dems clearly picked up momentum with the Roe Overturn, but, I think Biden's Red Speech killed momentum, and with that momentum destroyed, voters began to remember what their top issues are, and abortion isn't ranking higher than inflation, economy, and crime. Dems are not running with solutions to those things, they are much more working to change the subject which is an admission that they have no solutions that they wish to implement. I don't think that continuing on the same path is something that is appealing to voters, and as the realization sinks in that the Dems do not plan to implement effective solutions, I see undecideds beginning to break for Republicans.

Fourth poll in the past week shows Adam Laxalt leading Nevada Senate race

In NV the GOP has strong voter registration gains, 'a trend of Hispanic voters drifting away from Democrats and rising prices of gas and food as the key forces propelling Republicans.'

'Over the last week, the last 4 polls show us LEADING @CortezMasto:

• Emerson: 42/41
• Big Data Poll: 46/44
• Trafalgar: 47/43
• Data for Progress: 47/46

538 has Cortez ahead by 0.8% but, they are including some older polls in their average, two +6 polls, one from mid July and one from Mid August. Laxalt has led every poll since Biden's Red Speech.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/nevada/

RCP has dropped all polls with a range that goes beyond the second half of August, which drops out these two strong Cortez polls, and they have Laxalt leading by 1.75 and project this as a GOP pickup.

His pitch is border, crime, economy while reminding voters than abortion is settle law in NV, nothing will change as a result of Roe.



This is a pure border security pitch.



Note at 24 seconds, the women's undergarments strewn along the rape trails. One of the terrible rituals that accompanies this human trafficking is the mass rape of the females with their undergarments flung about like trophies. The mainstream media keeps quiet about this when it would harm the interests of the DNC, but, in the border states enough of the locals have gotten to know the migrants, and hear the horrifying stories from the victims, that in the border states this is common knowledge. It's only a few frames of the ad, but, its enough to remind those dead set against this illegal trafficking of exactly what is at stake.

I can't get the RCP map to load, I think they had Fetterman's lead down to 4.4 but, i can't double check it at the moment. 538 has his lead at 6.2% and that average includes some older polls that had Fetterman at +19 and another at +21. The polls since Biden's Red Speech are much closer, one within the margin of error and two just outside it.

Fetterman: On second thought, maybe murderers belong in prison

'Fetterman campaign walks back apparent call to ‘free’ every convicted second-degree murderer'.

His positioning on crime seemed to anticipate a completely different voter climate than the one we find ourselves in.

'Fetterman, the Pennsylvania lieutenant governor who chairs the state’s Board of Pardons (BOP), commissioned two reports last year released by Philadelphia Lawyers for Social Equity (PLSE) that recommended the BOP consider merit-based clemency for currently incarcerated second-degree murderers, as well as for the state legislature to reform the law that mandates life sentences without parole for second-degree murder convictions.' (via Legal Insurrection)

I still can't load RCP. 538 has this Johnson +1.4 and that average includes an early August poll that showed Barnes at +7. Johnson has leads in 4 of the 5 polls since Biden's Red Speech.

538 has this Warnock +1.2%. I'm not sure why they have it that close, the polls they are using seem to show a significant lead for Warnock, and that includes five polls since the first of September.

538 has this an almost +6 Kelly, but, the polling's odd. Their A rated pollsters have this within the margin of error whereas their more poorly rated pollsters have double digit leads. One unrated pollster in their average has Kelly +20!

 

Good points, I always thought abortion was already backed into the equation. Over the last 50 years those avid pro-lifers became Republicans and those avid pro-choicers became democrats. By avid I mean those who vote on abortion. I think if one looks at RCP the generic congressional ballot, you see the GOP leading by 2.6 points on 25 June, the day after ROE was overturned. A month later on 25 July, the GOP still had a 2.5-point lead. That’s a month with no movement. I can’t see everyone thinking the overturning of ROE didn’t mean anything to anyone for a month and then, wham, bang, thankyou ma’am, it does. Then other events began to happen.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html


Yeah, I think PA and WI will go Democratic, AZ, NV stays with the democrats along with GA. NC stays GOP. Cook has moved AZ to lean along with PA to lean Democratic, has WI, GA and NV as tossups. NC us lean Republican.


https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings


I see what you mean about RCP in Nevada, they have Laxalt up by 1.7. But I think incumbency will win it for Cortez Masto. It all depends on the inroads Republicans made among Hispanic voters in NV. Walker in GA is a poor quality candidate, when he talks there are times he makes no sense and has a lot of baggage. But being a football star helps him. People still remember Walker taking UGA to the National Championship. Again, in the end, incumbency carries Warnock. RCP give Johnson a 0.5-point lead there, Nate Silver, 538 gives Johnson a 58% chance of winning. But I don’t think he’ll win. It isn’t numbers here, it’s the gut. When the race is a tossup, I usually go with the incumbent, not in Wisconsin. Although I could easily be proven wrong.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo


Nate is giving Fetterman an 82% chance of winning in PA and Budd a 62% chance in NC, I think he’s right there. I’m still pretty sure on the GOP retaking the house, although Cook, Rothenberg, Sabato have moved some tossup Democratic seats into the lean column. I tend to place tossup’s and leans into the competitive, switchable column, place them altogether. Looking at PVIs of the districts, a 14-16 seat gain is likely for the GOP. I think the generic is kind of screwed as it’s national and not district by district. But it's a good indication as to what the country thinks as in the abortion issue.

 

Yes, and that is taking some heavy lifting.

 

Probably, but it will not be easy.
Voters seldom find the RP irresistible.

 

The RP could not even manage to beat 3 of the most odious vulnerable DP Governors, Newsom, Murphy and Wolf. Youngkin barely won with 50.3%.

IMO, the RP is not offering enough to voters to give them much of an advantage, if any, over a very vulnerable DP. Trump and DeSantis resonate with voters, but most of that is based on personality as opposed to their specific policy proposals.

Both parties should have fired all their campaign strategists long ago.
Most ordinary Americans have swallowed enough partisan malarky over the last few decades to finally recognize the smell.

 

I think what is being overlooked for this year’s midterms is Trump himself when it comes to the independent vote. Independents aren’t political junkies; they usually don’t follow politics until an election nears, then it’s barely. But independents don’t like Trump much. Having Trump front and centered constantly in the new for the last month and a half have reminded independents why they dislike him so. The momentum or trend shifted from the Republicans and a possible red wave around 1 August to a red trickle to perhaps a red dam where the GOP takes control of nothing. Trump has been the biggest asset the Democrats have going for them.


The congressional parties are equally held in disdain by independents, they dislike both. But there’s no viable, realistic choice but to choose one or the other. It’s not a case of voting for the party or candidates you want to win for independents. It a case of voting for the candidates and party that independents want to lose the least, not win, but lose the least. Only 26% of independents have either a very favor or somewhat favorable view of Democrats in congress, 56% unfavorable. Republicans in congress are viewed as close to identical as you can get. 26% of independents have either a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of the GOP congressional critters, 55% unfavorable. Questions 70A and 70B


https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xeu4apb94g/econTabReport.pdf


If I had my way, we’d have a viable third choice to replace these self-centered, partisan, party loyalist who only govern for their base and not the country as a whole. I hold both major parties in high disdain.

 

I am very anti-DP/RP, and Trump is the only anti-establishment choice so far, but the only thing that is helping DJT now is the sustained persecution of Trump and his allies by our corrupt bipartisan political class and its bureaucracy.

I watched Trump call for the death penalty for drug dealers and thought about Rakovsky, Sharangovich, Bukharin …. They all called for the death penalty for others establishing the precedent for its use against them.

 

Trump may be or should I say has been the only anti-establishment candidate out there. But Trump’s problem is his obnoxious, uncouth, rude persona, his behavior most independents though way below the dignity of the office of the presidency. Trump lost them, independents. I think Trump never had them. Not even in 2016. He was viewed 57% unfavorable by independents in 2016. But as luck would have it, he matched up against Hillary Clinton who was even more disliked by independents than Trump. Questions 10 and 11 on the unfavorable’s.


https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/l37rosbwjp/econTabReport_lv.pdf


46% of independents voted for Trump in 2016, 42% for Clinton with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Clinton. Add up Clinton’s 42% plus the 12% who voted against both major party candidates, that’s 54% of independents voting against Trump in 2016. That 54% matches the exact percentage that independents voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 and the 54% Biden received from independents in 2020. Trump still isn’t liked by independents, he may be anti-establishment, but his childish antic like name calling and throwing temper tantrums along with his 3rd grade schoolyard bullying tactics, seeking revenge against any one who had a bad word to say about him or wasn’t 100% loyal even within his own party, that was too much for independents to overcome. Trump will never win the independent vote, not because of his policies or being anti-establishment, but his very distasteful personality. That’s a complete turnoff for independents.

 

I noticed that as well, and while I cannot prove it, I suspect that as the national story of the 10 year girl began to sink in, that an intellectually distant issue became more personal, and I do think that Roe moved the average, but, I also understand that I really don't know.

Thanks for that link. You mention movement, but not which way, I suspect that it's toward the GOP.

Yes.

I think Nate's a little slow to recognise pro-GOP movement.

Thanks for the rundown. It's always good to hear the voice of an Independent.

 

Like Nate Silver, I haven’t seen any movement toward the GOP over the last couple of weeks. Most of the movement has been moving tossup districts and states to lean Democratic. AZ senate went from tossup to lean Democratic along with 3 or 4 congressional districts over this time period. Still plenty of time left, perhaps if winter comes a bit early, home heating bills may skyrocket, thus taking the focus off Trump back onto inflation. Falling gas prices has helped the Democrats along with Trump, in my opinion endorsing and getting nominated poor-quality general election candidates.


I’m not a Republican, so I don’t know if those same candidates would have won without Trump endorsement or not. I suspect some wouldn’t have. I know here in Georgia; many Republicans still hold Trump responsible for losing Georgia’s two senate seats in the January 2021 runoff. Hence, they went with Kemp which leads Abrams in the polls by 6.6 points while Trump endorsed Walker trails Warnock by 0.3.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-7538.html


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2022/senate/ga/georgia-senate-walker-vs-warnock-7329.html


That’s a 7-point difference between the two. A lot of ticket splitters voting for Kemp for governor, then Warnock for the senate if these numbers hold. Of course, you seen a lot of ticket splitting in 2020 when approximately 7 million voters voted for Biden, more likely against Trump, then voted Republican down ballot enabling the GOP to gain 13 house seats, a governorship along with 2 state legislatures.

 

I hold Trump responsible for losing those two seats, absent his post election antics, those races would have been lay ups. We wouldn't have had the ridiculous spending bills that now have us in a runaway inflation spiral and we wouldn't have a new Justice that thinks you have to be a biologist to distinguish between a man and a woman. Do you think a Country Boy needs a vet to tell him if he should try to milk the cow or the bull?

 

Most Republicans can’t see Trump’s antics, especially refighting the 2020 election, taking revenge out on fellow republicans, all these investigations to include the raid is also costing them seats this midterm. The focus of this midterm shouldn’t be on Trump, it should be on inflation, economic issues, etc. But it keeps right on returning to Trump. Especially since the first week of August.


My question to you is if the GOP fails to retake the senate, gains control of the by 10 or 12 seats instead of wave election numbers that was anticipated around 2-3 months ago. Will the GOP realize that Trump is an albatross around their necks. Republicans will vote republican, democrats for democrats. It’s independents that have deserted Trump and are in the process of deserting the Republican congressional and senate candidates this year.

 

Trump is a very effective counter-puncher. At this point an anti-establishment candidate cannot be too aggressive.
A polite Trump could never have won the nomination let alone the election. His efforts to work with the RP establishment weakened him by undermining his credibility as an agent for real substantive change. And that is a lingering problem for DJT -- can he change the course of the USG?

IMO Trump has a better chance of attracting Hispanics and black Americans than moderate Republicans Democrats and Independents. People who do not want to rock the boat and change course will not support Trump.

 

You’re probably right about people who don’t want to rock the boat. I found out, studying independents they’re fine with the party in power if the party in power doesn’t take them out of their comfort zone. Take independents out of their comfort zone, wave elections like 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018 happen. Taking independents out of their comfort zone, makes them angry causing the following to happen.


1994 independents voted for Republican congressional candidates by a 56-42 margin.

2006 independents voted Democratic by a margin of 57-39 over Republican congressional candidates.

2010 independents voted 56-37 Republican over Democrats

2018 Independents voted for the Democratic congressional candidates by a 54-42 margin.


There’s been some wild swings when independents are taken out of their comfort zone or become angry. I agree, Trump probably would have never won the GOP nomination in 2016 without being an obnoxious, uncouth counter puncher. He’s a fighter, no doubt and that was what the GOP was looking for back then. But those same qualities that won Trump the nomination, I should say his persona lost independents. 46% of independents voted for Trump in 2016 vs. 42% for Clinton along with 12% voting third party against both Trump and Clinton. 42% of independents voted for Republican congressional candidates in 2018, 54% voted for Democratic congressional candidates, that dropped to 41% voting for Trump in 2020 vs. 54% for Biden.


It wasn’t Trump’s policies that lost the 2020 election, independents were evenly split on those, for some, against some. It was his personality and what became to be considered childish antics like name calling and throwing of temper tantrums. Independents considered Trump’s antics and tactics, his behavior as president as being well below the dignity of the office of the presidency deserves. Had Trump had the personality of a Reagan, even a Bill Clinton or Obama, I think he’d have won reelection easily. But as you pointed out, Trump probably would have never won the nomination in the first place.

 

I only speak for myself and I'm give very little thought to Trump. I'm sure that Indies will vote their interests in Nov, just like the rest of us will.

 

I thought the same thing until the last month to month and a half. Something has changed independents minds in this time period. Could be dropping gas prices, but inflation, rising prices remain high and all indications isn’t going away anytime soon. The economy is usually the number one, most important issue. All the polls show that it has remained so. Except for the drop in gas prices, the economy still sucks as it has over the Biden presidency.


Something else has grabbed independents attention. It isn’t abortion, that was overturned in June. Independents numbers as to who they planned on voting for stayed steady with minimum ups and downs until the first part of August. Then the drop from 45-35 independents planning on voting Republican down to 42-39. Still republican, but a much smaller margin. There’s must be a reason, I doubt falling gas prices alone would have caused the drop. Maybe, but I doubt it.


I’ll keep an eye on it. I study independents and watch them closely. Mainly because I know how Republicans and Democrats will vote, they’re boring. Independents are wild, finicky, all over the place. Very interesting.

 

So, in July they were +10 and +3. That's significant.

 

You do realise you are suggesting a right wing government takeover of the country without a shot being fired...
I thought the right wants LESS centralised government control.
It would be more comforting if the right actually DID what says it believes instead of doing the opposite.