Trump Impeachment Inquiry / Vote, Senate Conviction (or acquittal) polling - polling internals

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by Statistikhengst, Oct 12, 2019.

  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    There is a lot of buzz about impeachment polling going on right now.

    What I have done is to collect the data for all polling released until today for the month of October and put the internals into one excel-table so that it is accessible for anyone to read.

    From October 4th to October 11th, a span of one week, 8 major polls have been published with results vis-a-vis impeachment. 6 of them ask a question whether the polling subject supports or opposes the Impeachment inquiry now taking place (Quinnipiac and FOX do not). 2 (Quinnipiac, FOX) ask the question whether to "impeach and remove" (implying Senate action), in other words, those two pollsters go beyond the basic question of an impeachment inquiry. 2 others (Economist/YouGov and Politico/Morning Consult) specifically ask about removal per conviction in the Senate in addition to the impeachment inquiry question.

    Here is the link to the table, which I will be updating quite often:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Tgjo7-IbGDouGo9NmAvCWeocQLJYvXoD/view?usp=sharing

    That data table is also for the approval/disapproval polling, so you need to go to the rightmost tab:

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING (excel tabs).png

    I am looking at 25 internal data points within 9 categories (the screenshots were made befoe I input the FOX News poll, if you go to the link above, you will find it as well):

    1.) Polling group (Adults, RV or LV)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 001.png

    2.) Gender (Men Suburban Men, Women, White Women, Suburban Women)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 002 (men).png
    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 003 (women).png

    3.) Party affiliation (D, R, I)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 004 (partisan affiliation).png

    4.) Ideology (Lib, Mod, Con)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 005 (ideology).png

    5.) Race (White, non-White, AA, Latino)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 006 (race).png

    6.) Urbanity (Urban, Suburban, Rural)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 007 (Urbanity).png

    7.) Geography (NE, South, Midwest, West)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 008 (geography).png

    8.) Religion (right now, just Evangelicals)

    2019-10-012 IMPEACHMENT POLLING internals 009 (religion).png

    That's a lot of data points to keep track of and not all pollsters publish all 25 data points, so I collect what I can to see where there are commonalities between very disparate pollsters.

    Now, were this election polling, I would not be interested to see a polling group of "Adults", but since such a serious issue as possible impeachment and removal of a president involves all of adult America and not just the ballot box, I do think it's important to see what adults generally think and how well those numbers track with RV or LV.

    When it comes to gender, you see that I have added "Suburban men" to the mens' category and both "Suburban Women" and "White women" to the womens' category. The reason for this is that the three main drivers of the 2018 congressional elections, that tipped the math strongly in favor of the Democrats, were:

    -Women
    -Independents
    -Suburbanites


    And so, for this reason, if I can get data for a cross-category, I think it's worth it.

    When you look at the gender numbers, you will see a huge divide between men and women.

    In the NPR poll, the spread between men and women is 26 points difference (from -2 to +24). In the FOX poll, the spread is 28 points (from -7 to +21). In the Qpiac poll, the spread is 23 points (-16 to +7), and so on and so on.

    As is the case with disapproval polling and election polling, women are and have been the driving force against Donald Trump since early 2017. This is a fact backed up by a huge amount of empirical data.

    In terms of partisan affiliation, the strong (and empirically confirmed) assumption is that Ds are wildly for impeachment and beyond, while Rs are wildly against the same, so the real numbers game here is to see what is going on with Independents, and here we see a veritable jungle of numbers. Alone, deciding what exactly an Independent voter is could be a nice thread, should someone want to discuss it. But it is a fact that the IND vote is the deciding factor in US elections and surely plays a major role in seeing where America stands vis-a-vis impeaching the current President.

    In terms of ideology, we similarly assume that Liberals will be wildly for impeachment and beyond, while Conservatives will be against, so the interesting number is for the so-called moderates (who come from both major parties and also from Independent voters).

    In terms of urbanity, we assume that Urbanites are far more for impeachment, since major metropolises have been fertile ground for Liberal thought, whereas Rural areas would tend to be more against impeachment, since Conservative thought has traditionally flourished there. So, the real battleground for the hearts of Americans lies currently in the Suburbs, which were once a Republican bastion for a long, long time, but no more. Now, some pollsters (like Marist) break urbanity down into 5 instead of 3 categories, making a comparison even harder, but it is indeed fascinating to watch the urbanity numbers as they roll in.

    In terms of geography, one could also have a lively discussion as to whether it's really fair to limit the USA to just 4 major geographical regions, but for simplicity's sake and since almost all pollsters are doing it this way, I'll take what I can get. We expect the NE and the West to be pretty strongly for impeachment (large urban areas, coastal areas), whereas we could reasonably expect the South - when dealing with a Republican president, to be against impeachment and the Midwest somewhat of a mixed bag (primarily because there is a tangible difference between the industrial Midwest and the Breadbasket Midwest), but the geographical numbers are offering us some surprises.

    In terms of religion, a buddy of mine asked me months ago to include the Evangelicals in my data collection, and so I respected his wish.

    What I have not done thus far is to explicitly list the partisan breakdown of each and every poll. There is a good reason for this: partisan identification is voluntary and sometimes it is very intructive to see how often the voluntary partisan ID is going in one direction or another.

    I've taken no averages of the polling, but rather, simply present the numbers as they come in. As long as Impeachment (and/or removal) is a subject and polling is taken thereof, I will be updating the link at the top of the OP.

    Those are the current numbers, from 8 pollsters who could not possibly be more disparate.

    -Stat
     
  2. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I encourage dems to continue to push impeachment.
     
  3. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Trump will be impeached by the House, the Senate not so sure, if he was removed it would be devastating for dems in the 2020 election as Trump will definitely get the vote out for them if he runs in 2020, but he really should be removed, but I will be happy either way
     
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  4. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I think that the OP makes it quite clear that this is simply about the polling numbers in micro-detail as they appear.
    What you all do with the numbers is your thing, but it is what it is.

    -Stat
     
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  5. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    The only poll that matters is next November.
     
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  6. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    You are certainly more than entitled to your opinion, only, history records that the vast majority (as in, almost all) of pols who have said such a statement were the ones who lost elections.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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  7. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    Impeachment would put a nice asterisk beside his name either way.
     
  8. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    Yawn. Who cares.... Trump's job approval rating hasn't even budged which has only one statistical explanation - people who hated him but did not want him impeached now hate him and want him impeached. Plus a few Trump supporters like me who want the Dems to put their money where their big mouths are, vote, impeach and face the consequences. No one has changed his/her mind.

    The first president reelected in a landslide after being impeached. I personally can't wait for impeachment hearings in the Senate when Trump and his team will for the first time be able to present his case to the american people, drag Hunter and Joe and Obama and "whistleblowers" and Mueller and many others to the floor, put them under oath and interrogate them to their heart's content. And that's one of two main reasons why the libs are terrified to vote and impeach, the other being they have no ****ing case LOL
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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  9. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Such bitterness will not help democrats.
    [​IMG]
     
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  10. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    I don’t see trump having a net gain in voters if he is impeached. Polls indicate as such also. I’m sure you are basing your view on something other than your opinion and memes.
     
  11. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This bogus impeachment sham (as time goes on that will become more clear to low info voters, but we will ignore it for now) has inspired Trump supporters, moderates, independents, etc to support him even more.

    Right now you can only see that as a massive increase in donations.

    Give it some time.

    [​IMG]
    At this time, polls are intended more to influence, rather than inform on public opinion.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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  12. stone6

    stone6 Newly Registered Donor

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    Why do you think Trump's "due process rights" are being trampled upon?
     
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  13. stone6

    stone6 Newly Registered Donor

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    The Judiciary Committee began the investigation primarily into the possibility of obstruction of justice, as reported by Mueller. It moved to the Intelligence Committee with the Ukrainian affair, and should move back to Judiciary once the various investigations by various committees are completed. It will be in the Judiciary Committee that the bill of impeachment will be drawn up, debated and voted upon. If it passes, then it will go to the floor for a House debate and vote.
    Why do you think it is a "sham?"
     
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  14. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    Polls after Trump presents his case may well be drastically different from the polls taken while the Dems and their subservient leftist fake news media are the only ones talking, the only ones investigating, the only ones issuing subpoenas, the only ones calling witnesses, the only ones releasing "convenient" fragments of testimonies and hiding those that completely exonerate Trump.

    This anti-Trump stink emanating from the Squad/Schitt controlled House may well be replaced with actual facts when Republican controlled Senate takes over and conducts a real trial. Duh
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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  15. PARTIZAN1

    PARTIZAN1 Well-Known Member

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    Polling numbers in solid Red states might be an interesting predictor.
    Basically Trump fans are circiling the wagons. I am afraid that Trump could be caught turning Top Secret documents over to Putin while doing to Putin what Donnie accused Biden of the other and Donnie's fans will say " let Trump be Trump".

    Trump fans do not seem to care for our country only to follow their cult leader. Sad sorry state of affairs our country is in, and it get worse every day.
     
  16. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    I’m sure the irony of your statement following a poll you just posted escapes you.

    Feel free to post the poll however, or the methodology, I couldn’t find it after a quick search — but I understand that trumps base runs on tweets, if it’s on Twitter it must be true!
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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  17. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    A trump argument?
    You mean “stable genius”
    Or “unmatched wisdom”

    If this hinges on him presenting his case it’s going to be more of a circus than it already is.
     
  18. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    Huh? What kind of nonsense is this? It hinges on his team, hopefully Trey Gowdy but others are just as capable... When they drag the Bidens, the hoax-blowers, Obama, Mueller, Weissmann etc to the witness stand and wipe the floor with them while the entire country is watching you won't think it's a circus, it'll be a show to behold.
     
  19. mdrobster

    mdrobster Well-Known Member

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    LMAO !!!!!
     
  20. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    So your plan is to bring other parties and make the trial about them? That’s not how courts work.

    If you want to put Biden on trial feel free to do so — I’m fine with them all going to jail if they are guilty — but I know many that support trump have an issue with legal methods, standards and ethics.
     
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  21. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    What part of "witness stand" tu no comprendes? Jeez.

    The defense will have the right to subpoena witnesses, put them on the stand, put them under oath and wipe the floor with them. It's in fact not just their right, it's their job. And rest assured they will do a very good job, by the time they are done with corrupt Bidens, two-faced Obama and Mueller's witch hunters the Dems will want to crucify Schitt and Nadler for getting them into this horrible Armageddon. There is a good reason why Pelosi is terrified to impeach and the Republicans can't wait.
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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  22. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    He is some light reading since you are obviously confused about the legal process.
    I have a few others when you get done if you would like to educate yourself further.
    Relevance (law)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relevance_(law)
     
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  23. Borat

    Borat Well-Known Member

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    1. it's a political process, not legal, and the House Democrat scum has turned it into a political witch hunt and a political circus. They will reap what they sow, can't have it both way amigo.

    2. Mueller, corrupt Bidens, sneaky Obama, lying hoaxblowers aren't relevant to the articles of impeachment the House democrat circus will concoct. Dude...bwahahahaha :D
     
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  24. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Donor

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    The house investigation is, and they can shut down the circus the republicans will attempt to create.

    The senate version is a legal one.
     
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  25. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member Staff Member

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    -Stat[/QUOTE] I am not a 'numbers' guy and I won't pretend differently. Instead I am going to ask you some questions about what you can gleen from what you present in broad terms.

    1. Have you seen any surprises in terms of where opinions are changing?
    2. Assuming there are such poll subjects as 'soft Dems' or 'soft Pubs' in this hyper-partisan environment, that are more likely to break stereotypical expectations as this impeachment process rolls along, which demographic categories would you look to, as early predictors or 'canaries in the coal minds' of major shifts in popular support down the road?
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2019
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