Trump Impeachment Inquiry / Vote, Senate Conviction (or acquittal) polling - polling internals

Lots of work. Stupid question -- what are RV LV?
Thanks for all the work.

 

Odds are that things are going to become worse for him, not better.

 

Glad you think so... so you're not going to be whining, moaning and crying if the legal process in the Senate approves the interrogation of the Bidens, Mueller and his witch hunters, hoaxblowers and others? And if it acquits the president you'll be willing to declare that Trump is legally exonerated, innocent and was falsely accused?

 

After the Bidens attempt to explain their exuberant loot and the coincidence of Junior being "hired" 2 weeks after Biden was tasked with supervising Ukraine?

After Mueller attempts to explain why he was not involved and let 20 uber-partisan Hillary donors run the witch hunt using his (now completely destroyed) reputation?
never mind dozens of other well documented violations, lies, biases, even potential crimes his "dream-team" committed during their witch-hunt

After hoax-blowers attempt to explain the lies, discrepancies and absurd exaggerations, their ties to democrat candidates, their violation of whistleblower rules?

Hmm, you're an optimist, dude.

 

Actually, as you know, no. The Senate "trial" is legal in the sense it is a constitutional process. But it is not a criminal process; only a process to determine if the impeached should or should not be dismissed from office and prohibited from serving in future offices. If applicable, a criminal prosecution and trial would follow in the courts. I would expect both in Trump's case...i.e. without a criminal offense, it will be difficult to obtain the 2/3rds majority needed for conviction in the Senate. Ergo...if there is sufficient evidence presented in the House bill of impeachment to rise to a level of guilty of a crime beyond a reasonable doubt, the Senate will convict. He will be removed from office and subsequently indicted and tried in the criminal justice system.

 

As a really, really obvious point seems to elude you: Mueller has already testified for several hours in public.

 

And what a disaster for the dems it was, the guy did not have any idea what was in his report, admitted not writing it, not talking to witnesses...
lest we forget that Mueller deflected questions 198 times. We tracked when he did it.

I am very very skeptical that Trump lawyers will be just as lenient to him and let him get away with only answering the questions he feels like answering. I doubt very much they'll let him answer report related questions only as he demanded during this voluntary testimony.

He may be forced to explain the Trump-hating love birds, the 20 radical leftists with 0 republicans on his team, FISA abuses, the origins of the witch hunt, the reason his investigation took 2 years after he knew there had been no collusion with Russia and a gazillion other things he refused to account for. Or do you think Trump lawyers will go easy on him?

 

The same polls that said Hillary would win in a landslide?

 

I am not a 'numbers' guy and I won't pretend differently. Instead I am going to ask you some questions about what you can gleen from what you present in broad terms.

1. Have you seen any surprises in terms of where opinions are changing?
2. Assuming there are such poll subjects as 'soft Dems' or 'soft Pubs' in this hyper-partisan environment, that are more likely to break stereotypical expectations as this impeachment process rolls along, which demographic categories would you look to, as early predictors or 'canaries in the coal minds' of major shifts in popular support down the road?[/QUOTE]

YES.

Take a look at the rural numbers. A republican president should be enjoying 65/35 support in rural areas for pretty much anything. Trump still has support in rural areas, but it is considerably leaner than should be for a Republican.

Suburban numbers are confirming the trend that started in 2016 and was very much strengthened in 2018 - namely that Republican support in the suburbs has eroded to the point where a GOPer can no longer rely on the suburbs for support, -or- an electoral victory.

Trump has suffered massive erosion among white women, which no doubt dovetails with the rural and suburban numbers.

More information to come at a later date.

Nice to hear from you.

 

Interesting info Stat.

In the short term poling suggests that a comfortable majority of Americans (if not Republicans) are still committed to the idea of Congressional oversight, separation of powers & rule of law. Whether or not this has a significant impact on the election will depend in part on how the Dems in Congress run the impeachment process and what further information comes to light. It should be of some concern to Republicans that despite their regimented online campaign to obfuscate & deflect most Americans who have seen Trump's own words see that what he did was wrong. That may hurt regardless of the outcome of the impeachment process.

 

And in the real world:

What’s especially fascinating is that during the Russia Collusion Hoax, Democrats and their media allies were able to drive Trump’s numbers down into the 30s, to as low as 37 percent back in December of 2017.

This time, even with the hysteria of impeachment added to the menu, not so much.

...in the Real Clear Politics poll of polls ... not even two points lower...What’s more, Trump disapproval rating has barely increased, from 52 percent to 53.6 percent.
...
What I think this tells us is the voters are no longer jolted into dropping their support for Trump by a media that has cried wolf nearly once too often four years. In the past, the media could gin up enough hysteria to drive down Trump’s approval numbers, at least until the public figured out it was all fake news.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...ng-holds-steady-and-still-higher-than-obamas/

 

I don't understand how you come to your conclusions. If I understand the polls posted, most show that the "people" are for impeachment. Given that most really don't understand how it works, that means most believe the President is in the wrong. If the House impeaches him and the Senate does not, it would seem logically that the "people" will not look kindly at the Senate which will not go well for the right.
Side note: interesting stuff....thanks.

 

I dont think trump lawyers will ever get a chance to question him, any of the Bidens, or anyone else that you dream will be the reason to deflect from Trump's impeachment for abuse of power and obstruction.

His lawyers are too busy defending against their own criminal investigations.

 

Registered Voters and Likely Voters.

Essentially the difference is that the later group are based on models that try to establish which voters are not only registered to vote, but also more likely to vote based on things like demographics and enthusiasm.

 

Exactly.

Trump's "Lawyers" are a Who's Who of Blatant CRIMINALITY.

 

If Mitch McConnell chooses to just throw the leftist partisan slanderous garbage out of the Senate or put it to immediate vote on the Senate floor and then, upon exoneration throw the leftist partisan garbage out, then yes, the lawyers won't get a chance to question anyone.... In all other scenarios the lawyers will have a subpoena power and will call whoever they want. Who is going to stop them, <Rule 3> You can bet you ass corrupt Bidens, senile Mueller and hoaxblowers will be called, chewed up and spat out by Trump lawyers.. I have my doubts about them calling Obama though.

 

More evidence that it's purely political which we already knew.

 

That cannot be denied; as time ticks on the numbers (IMO) will continue to go against trump; if impeached by the House, it would be an uphill battle in the Senate, but it would also show the American people that the republicans have jettisoned the US Constitution in favor of partisanship and hopefully the democrats strategy will play that up to the hilt.

Glad your going to keep us up to date on the future numbers; I think it's important for both democrats and republicans to know as they change.

 

No if that happens everyone will get to hear the media slander Republican Senators. mOsCoW mItCh herrrr derrrrrppp

 

What statutes you thinking?

 

"it would seem logically that the "people" will not look kindly at the Senate which will not go well for the right."

How's that? Almost every poll now I've seen is roughly 50/50 right? It's basically a totally partisan issue

 

Agreed.

 

While the impeachment process is political and the penalty is political the "high crimes" must still be PROVEN during the Senate TRIAL to the satisfaction of 2/3rds of the "jury" AKA the partisan Senate members.

In the instance of Clinton the crime of perjury was proven but since it involved a consensual blowjob obtained via ENTRAPMENT the "jury" did not believe that it reached the bar of being a "high crime" that justified removal from office.

We already know that there are going to be the charges of Obstruction of Justice and the Senate "jury" will review those in exactly the same manner as they did with Clinton. It is entirely possible that none of them will reach the standard of being a "high crime" justifying removal from office.

What other impeachment charges may be added to the Articles remain to be seen but the evidence will need to be solid enough to convince the "jury".

Where the politics comes into play is the fact that on the GOP side of the Senate 22 of their seats are on the 2020 ballot as opposed to only 12 for the Dems. Those "jury"members are going to be swayed by whether their vote to acquit or remove will help or hinder their re-elections chances. That still leaves 31 GOP members of the "jury" who could still chose to put party ahead of the best interests of the nation or instead honor their Oath to UPHOLD the Constitution.

With all of these factors in play neither outcome is a forgone conclusion just as it is not even a certainty that this will even reach the Senate.

Kudos to @Statistikhengst for bringing this data to our attention and for keeping it CURRENT since it is definitely going to be an important factor as this Current Event plays out.

 

oh republican will do that, no doubt, but Trump will have this stain in the history books forever, one time loser President that got impeached by the house

I hope they ad the full list of wrongs done by this president so every school kid reads and learns about this horrible President for years to come, Trump has always worried about his father Brand, well Trump has tarnished it more than anyone else

 

If this continues the way it is going, they can subpoena anyone they want and HOPE they show up.