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Trump Impeachment Inquiry / Vote, Senate Conviction (or acquittal) polling - polling internals

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Statistikhengst, Oct 12, 2019.

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  1. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    Not the Onion, but soon enough:

    "The dude said, live and on camera, that the data-sets about the asteroid crashing toward the earth were all *fake news!* as a huge asteroid could be seen in the background burning it's way through the atmosphere of our once beautiful planet, heading right toward his ranch......"
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2019
    Statistikhengst, Oct 14, 2019
    #76
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  2. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    They were astonishing accurate in 2008, 2012, 2014, 2016 (excepting three states) and 2018.

    So, your point?
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 14, 2019
    #77
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  3. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    This is the kind of circular breathing of mental-methane that brings us absolutely nowhere. If you think that everything is fake news to begin with, in spite of multiple (more than 20), independent-from-each-other sources saying exactly the same thing, then there is no value in engaging with your method of argumentation, because it is purely bunk.

    It's like very stabile genius types who claim there is no air pollution because they can't smell or see all the poisons in the air.

    Sad. Very, very sad.
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 14, 2019
    #78
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  4. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hillary is President?
     
    Professor Peabody, Oct 14, 2019
    #79
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  5. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    I never said she was President.

    In order to help cure ignorance, a hint: national polling and state election polling poll the popular vote, not the electors.
    Clinton won in the national popular vote by +3 million votes.

    You are welcome.
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 14, 2019
    #80
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  6. Professor Peabody

    Professor Peabody Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    [​IMG]

    The founding Fathers knew small dense areas of folks getting the biggest handout shouldn't control the entire country.
     
    Professor Peabody, Oct 14, 2019
    #81
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  7. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    Derideo_Te, Oct 14, 2019
    #82
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  8. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Well in light of my opinion on using data points from others in order to extrapolate a persona consensus, it begs the question, is this post from your heart or is it just another talking point from another persons website?
     
    ButterBalls, Oct 14, 2019
    #83
  9. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    So, enough trolling behavior. You had your chance. Bye bye.
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 14, 2019
    #84
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  10. ButterBalls

    ButterBalls Well-Known Member

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    Have a blessed day!
     
    ButterBalls, Oct 14, 2019
    #85
  11. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The results of the Quinnipiac poll, released today (10/14/2019) vis-a-vis impeachment have been input into the table.

    toplines: for impeachment inquiry: 51 yes / 45 no, yes +6
    toplines: for impeachment and removal 46 impeach and remove / 48 no, no +2 (tie)

    Also, Trump approval/disapproval: 41 approve / 54 disapprove, +13
    among women: 35 approve / 61 disapprove, +26 - that is a huge deficit.
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 14, 2019
    #86
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  12. Zorro

    Zorro Well-Known Member

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    November 2, 2016 - Clinton Up In Pennsylvania:

    Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds [​IMG]

    • FLORIDA: Clinton 46 - Trump 45, Johnson 2
    • NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 - Trump 44, Johnson 3
    • OHIO: Trump 46 - Clinton 41, Johnson 5
    • PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43, Johnson 3
    They were wrong on all of them.

    Iowa 2020: Just 7% call impeachment ‘important,’ Trump beating Warren, Biden.
     
    Zorro, Oct 18, 2019
    #87
  13. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The online Excel Table has been updated with national impeachment polling from Gallup, Ipsos/Reuters, Politico/Morning Consult and CNN, with one poll only for Virginia as well.

    CNN: "Impeach and Remove" 50 yes / 43 no, yes +7. Among women: 56 yes / 36 no, yes +20. Among independents: 50 yes / 42 no, yes +8.

    Politico "Impeach and Remove" 51 yes / 41 no, yes +10. Among women: 52 yes / 39 no, yes +13. Among independents: 48 yes / 39 no, yes +9. Among suburbanites 51 yes / 43 no, yes +8.

    Neither Clinton nor Obama had impeachment polling numbers like these, ever.
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 22, 2019
    #88
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  14. Promise Hero

    Promise Hero Banned

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    Actually you're quite wrong if your talking about the impeachment process. Impeachment is a political matter. Thus both parties will be looking at the polls as a strong determiner as to whether to conduct a full blown impeachment and whether to vote Trump out of office. The sentiment of the American people stands about all.
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2019
    Promise Hero, Oct 23, 2019
    #89
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  15. Statistikhengst

    Statistikhengst Well-Known Member

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    The impeachment data-table has been updated with the internals from:

    UNF (Florida only), with 2 questions: inquiry, impeach and remove
    Quinnipiac (national), with 2 questions: inquiry, impeach and remove

    In the dreadnaught battleground state of Florida, where Biden is currently besting Trump by at least +6, its a tie among the Florida public (registered voters) about the inquiry and removal.

    Nationally, Quinnipiac looks a lot worse for the embattled President:

    Impeachment inquiry: 55 yes / 43 no, yes +12
    Impeach and remove: 48 yes / 46 no, yes +2
    Also some other very cutting questions in the Qpiac poll:

    Trump approval overall: 38/58, -20
    Trump approval on the economy: 48/48, tie
    Trump approval on foreign policy: 35/61, -26
    Trump approval on national security: 41/56, -15
    Trump approval on the middle-east: 36/58, -22
    Trump approval on abandoning the Kurds in Syria: 30/60, -30
    Ukraine: is Trump pursuing nat'l interest or his own interest: 33 nat'l interest / 59 his own interest, his own interest +26
    Is Trump making the world a safer place, or less safer: safer 36 / less safe 57, less safe +21
    Has Trump strengthened or weakened our position in the word: strengthened 33 / weakened 52, weakened +19

    If you go to the Qpiac link and look at the internals, you can see how incredibly in the hole Trump is among women in literally every single category.

    The partisan self-identification in the poll is: D34 / R29 / I28, D+5
     
    Statistikhengst, Oct 24, 2019
    #90
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  16. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    At points like this, when Trump defenders trot out 2016 polling data and how it did not match the final election results as a justification for disbelieving current polling on approval ratings, it is a good idea to remind everyone that approval ratings are not an attempt to predict the future.

    Politicians rely on polling data to help make decisions in the moment because they oftentimes do not have the luxury of waiting a year for the next election.
     
    MrTLegal, Oct 25, 2019
    #91
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  17. Creasy Tvedt

    Creasy Tvedt Well-Known Member

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    This.

    If the pollsters asked me, I'd say I'm a staunch proponent of impeachment, and I am.

    Because it's going to be a complete disaster for the Democrats.

    I'm all for that. Big fan, big fan.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
    Creasy Tvedt, Oct 25, 2019
    #92
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  18. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    With most recent polls showing the majority wanting trump out and him polling anywhere from -8 to -12 depending on the day, when do you believe the complete disaster will be evident in overall polling within this issue?
     
    cd8ed, Oct 25, 2019
    #93
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  19. Creasy Tvedt

    Creasy Tvedt Well-Known Member

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    You believed the polls last time too, didn't you?

    They never learn.
     
    Creasy Tvedt, Oct 25, 2019
    #94
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  20. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    The polls "last time" said Democrats would win the House by roughly 8.7%. They won the House by roughly 8.7%.

    The polls just before "last time" said Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by roughly 3.2%. She won the popular vote by 2.1%.

    Was the lesson from "last time" that Trump tends to outperform his polls by ~1%?
     
    MrTLegal, Oct 25, 2019
    #95
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  21. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    Yea...the whole "toss me in the briar patch" talking point really does not pass the smell test. It reeks of desperation in fact. You know that impeachment is virtually a guarantee at this point and so you act like it is something that you wanted the whole time.

    Also, can we talk about the historical precedent for the "backlash" created by impeachment? Do you know how many seats the GOP lost after the impeachment of Bill Clinton which was supposedly devastating for them? They lost two. And that was with Bill Clinton being much, much more popular than Trump has ever been and with Bill Clinton handling the impeachment process much, much better than Trump has to date. And do you remember who won the Presidential election in 2000 despite the VP of the popular President running in a booming economy? The Republican who ran on cleaning out the stench from the White House.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
    MrTLegal, Oct 25, 2019
    #96
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  22. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The only poll that matters is election day, I believed the DNC shot themselves with the primary debacle.
    Polls track popular opinion and most of them as we neared election day the final results fell within the MOE.

    Feel free to answer the question, or we can just go with the typical mantra of “fake newz! buttery males! everything is a conspiracy! maga” that seems to be plaguing the minds of those infected with TDS.
     
    cd8ed, Oct 25, 2019
    #97
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  23. MrTLegal

    MrTLegal Well-Known Member

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    "Buttery males"

    Rofl
     
    MrTLegal, Oct 25, 2019
    #98
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  24. Creasy Tvedt

    Creasy Tvedt Well-Known Member

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    The Dem's impeachment fiasco disaster will unfold on election day in 2020, and I will die of laughter sometime on the following day.
     
    Last edited: Oct 25, 2019
    Creasy Tvedt, Oct 25, 2019
    #99
  25. mandacaye

    mandacaye Active Member

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    I truly don't believe you can trust polls where Trump is concerned. People are too scared to admit they are for him...
     
    mandacaye, Oct 25, 2019
    #100
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