Trump vs Biden Election 2020 Odds

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by PatriotNews, Sep 2, 2020.

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If the election were held today, who would you vote for?

Poll closed Dec 2, 2020.
  1. President Trump

    33 vote(s)
    58.9%
  2. Joe Biden

    19 vote(s)
    33.9%
  3. other

    1 vote(s)
    1.8%
  4. undecided

    3 vote(s)
    5.4%
  1. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    No changecin the odds again today. Still at

    Trump 13
    Biden 87

    No change in the electoral college from last entry.

    RCP average of polls when down for biden .2% from 51.4% to 51.2%. Trump up .1% from 42.2% to 42.3% for an 8.9% lead in the polls for Biden.

    Screenshot_20201016-140420_Chrome.jpg
     
  2. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Odds of winning

    Biden 87%

    Trump 12%

    Screenshot_20201023-135245_Chrome.jpg

    Biden's lead is down 1.5% to 7.5% from 8.9%

    Screenshot_20201023-135312_Chrome.jpg

    Change in electoral college. Was landslide for Biden 375 to 163. Not sure what changed for 18 points. I don't see any states that changed from the previous map. Now a landslide for Joe Biden 357 to 181.

    Screenshot_20201023-135349_Chrome.jpg
     
  3. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Odds of winning

    Biden 87%

    Trump 13%
    Trump up 1%

    Screenshot_20201024-091543_Chrome.jpg

    Biden's lead is up .6% to 8.1% from 7.5%

    Biden's lead went up somehow to from 7.5% with the addition of a poll showing him at 6% lead. Perhaps a poll showing him with smaller lead dripped off.

    Screenshot_20201024-091719_Chrome.jpg

    No change in electoral college.

    Screenshot_20201023-135349_Chrome.jpg
     
    Last edited: Oct 24, 2020
  4. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Odds of winning

    Biden 87%

    Trump 13%
    No change.

    Screenshot_20201024-091543_Chrome.jpg

    Biden's lead is down .1% from 8.1% to 8%

    Screenshot_20201026-145520_Chrome.jpg

    Normally they will publish post debate polls immediately after the debate to see if anyone received a post election bounce. They can't find any post election polls to post for some odd reason. It's been 4 days. FOUR DAYS!

    Screenshot_20201023-135349_Chrome.jpg

    No change in electoral college.
     
    Last edited: Oct 26, 2020
  5. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Odds of winning

    Biden 88%

    Trump 12%
    A one percent shift for Biden. I guess the great debate performance by CREEPY CROOKED UNCLE JOE BIDEN coupled with all the witnesses and documents proving beyond the shadow of a doubt that JOE BIDEN is a grifter on the take and under the control of THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY. Although some of the newfound popularity of CREEPY CROOKED JOE BIDEN could be the SEXUAL PROWESS OF CRACKHEAD HUNTER BIDEN because of the recently released SEX TAPES THAT ARE ALL OVER THE INTERNET.

    Screenshot_20201027-140928_Chrome.jpg

    CREEPY CROOKED UNCLE JOE's odd improved despite his further slide in the polls. (NOTE: NONE OF THE POLLS ARE POST DEBATE EXCEPT ONE WHICH IS A NEW PARTNERSHIP THAT ONLY POLLED REGISTERED VOTERS WITH IQ's LESS THAN 50.) Biden's lead is down .2% from 8.% to 7.8%

    Screenshot_20201027-141649_Chrome.jpg

    Normally they will publish post debate polls immediately after the debate to see if anyone received a post election bounce. They can't find any post election polls to post for some odd reason. It's been 5 days. FIVE DAYS!

    Screenshot_20201027-141734_Chrome.jpg

    No change in RPC's electoral college no toss-up map.
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2020
  6. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Not much change today over yesterday.
     
  7. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Odds of winning

    Biden 89%

    Trump 11%
    Once again another one percent shift for Biden. His odds are going up despite his slow slide in the polls. We've seen this routine every election. The republican is always way behind in the polls but they miraculously get with striking distance in the last week.


    Screenshot_20201029-161440_Chrome.jpg


    CREEPY CROOKED UNCLE JOE's odd improved despite his further slide in the polls. (NOTE: SOME OF THE POLLS ARE FROM MORE THAN A WEEK AGO, BEFORE THE DEBATE) Biden's lead is down .4% from 7.8% to 7.4% (Before I could screen capture it went from 7.5% to a 7.4% so his lead seems to be dropping by the minute).

    Screenshot_20201029-161557_Chrome.jpg

    So they withheld the polls to minimize Trump's post debate bounce which they would be all in the day after the debate normally if they can tweak the polls in favor of the democrat. But Trump got at least a 1.5% post debate bounce (much higher I'm sure).

    Here is the current RCP no toss up map.

    Screenshot_20201029-161823_Chrome.jpg
    Oddly enough, seconds before I captured that screenshot, I captured this one.

    Screenshot_20201029-161711_Chrome.jpg

    I guess the map here also changes minute by minute. Florida and Georgia switched to Trump and then right back to Biden a second later. Smells fishy.
    [/QUOTE]
     
    Last edited: Oct 29, 2020
  8. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Odds of winning

    Biden 89%

    Trump 10%
    A one percent shift for Trump to the downside now at a 10% chance of winning. His odds are going down despite the polls getting closer. We've seen this routine every election. On the bright side, Trump has a better chance of winning than he did in 2016.


    Screenshot_20201030-124552_Chrome.jpg


    CREEPY CROOKED UNCLE JOE's is up .2% and Trump is down .2% in the polls.So it is going back up to 7.8% from 7.4%

    Screenshot_20201030-130224_Chrome.jpg
    Here is the current RCP no toss up map.

    Screenshot_20201030-125120_Chrome.jpg

    So Trump is up in the EC by 11 (Arizona).
     
  9. Asherah

    Asherah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That's not true. Fivethirtyeight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning in 2016 (see this). His chances this time are 65% lower.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2020
  10. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Not 5%? Well, the polls are worse now than in 2016 as well. When you give democrats a 13% advantage in the polls and are only winning by 11%, then you are likely down by 2%.
     
  11. rogerintheeast

    rogerintheeast New Member

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    All the lies we hear before the elections ...
    Specially coming from Trump.
    He’s able to the worst and is so selfish. You can observe this from his attitude, face expression, the way he is moving his arms and hands, his lips, ...
    It’s the first time that a president is saying from himself that he’s the best. Unacceptable.
    He cancelled our dear Health Insurance system and now a lot of people can’t afford the major necessary medical interventions, it’s a shame.
    He’s always announcing the worst to draw the attention.
    He’s always attacking other persons with lies to draw the attention to himself.
    He’s spending a lot of time with tweets (ridiculous reactions), while his responsibility requires other really important matters for the nation.
    America first, yes OK, but within the world and while respecting the others, and working with the others.
    He is independent-minded and seems unconcerned with details, which is dangerous for the nation. However he often is occupied with the details of unimportant ridiculous tweets.
    Most of the time he won’t take advice from other persons.
    He’s bold and ignores most of the time the recommendations of people working with him. His major action is to intimidate others and overestimates largely his capacities.
    He’s making decisions without thinking and discussing about it with his councillors.

    Trump is suffering from a narcissistic personality disorder, only him and nobody else, this is very dangerous in his position. In addition this tends to overestimate his capabilities.

    Let’s change the orientation for the health of our Unites States of America. I insist on United while keeping good relations with the world.
    Joe Biden is largely and finally our saver ! Be realistic !
     
  12. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    What lies. He has kept his promises.

    Unlike Biden and the liberals. They lied about Obamacare, millions lost their doctors and their healthcare. It wasn't free healthcare. In fact, you had to pay the government if you didn't want it. They said they wouldn't increase taxes on the poor and middleclass, but Obamacare was a tax on the middle class and the poor. Biden lies all the time. He said he didn't say he would ban fracking, when he's on tape saying multiple times he would. He said he knew nothing about CRACKHEAD HUNTER'S business dealings, now we have evidence and eyewitnesses saying he did. Joe Biden said in the debate he was against the crime bill he wrote!

    The federal government has no right to interfere in our private medical matters. Pay for your own health insurance. Don't make the rest of us pay for your neglecting your own finances. You are not owed or have a right to healthcare.

    Like what?
    I don't care about Twitter. I don't care if he attacks his enemies. I think he's do a tremendous job, he's very informed and in command of the government and foreign policy.

    He made 3 Middle East peace deals this year and another between Serbia and Kosova. More than the past two Presidents combined.

    Right? That makes him a leader. Many advised him not to close travel from China, including Dr Fauccl.

    I would say he has surrounded himself with some of the smartest people in the country and takes their advice. I guess it depends on where you get information from, the #FakeNews media or direct sources.

    So we teach our children to have a high self esteem but when we have a confident leader all you see is a narcissistic personality?
    Joe Biden is senile obviously. He didn't even campaign for the job and therefore doesn't deserve it. If the media can manage to drag Biden's lifeless corpse across the finish line this country is done.
     
  13. Paul7

    Paul7 Well-Known Member

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    Even CNN admits Trump is up in IA: https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/iowa-poll-selzer/index.html
     
  14. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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  15. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    Giving this thread a bump so you can vote in the poll.
     

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