Trump's Economy Still Unable to Rise above 3% Growth (part 2)

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Another who doesn’t understand how negotiation works.

Still going with the conclusions based on 3 months ?? Consumer confidence based on the economy is the highest since the mid 90’s when incidentally the supply side economic policies of Clinton were implemented.

 

Why don't you explain to me how the negotiations work then? Tell me how soybean farmers are helped by the tariffs. Tell me how the Trump administration consulted them about contingencies before he applied tariffs that have cost soybean farmers $14Billion here. Tell me all about how Trump has convinced soybean farmers they must financially suffer to get more expensive steel and aluminum, and that the soybean farmers agreed to take the hit so steel can cost more. Losing the Chinese market for soybeans is a long term problem. Once they buy soybeans from other countries, they won't be coming back to buy from the US, even if tariffs are lifted later, and farmers will look for other crops to take the place of soybeans, if they have a market to sell into. It's not easy to replace a $14billion market with another crop.

Yes, I'm still going with the conclusion that after 6 months of tax cuts sold as the means to raise wages and stimulate our economy to 3% sustained growth, wages have not only not gone up, but have declined because that is exactly what the numbers say happened. We're also not at a growth rate that the tax cuts are paying for themselves, so we're adding to the debt too, when we should be paying it down. Put that consumer confidence with $4 and you can buy a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Remove that consumer confidence and the cup of coffee costs the same. Until the majority of this country is feeling the effects of consumer confidence in their wallet, it's a useless measurement of "feel good" politics.

 

The threat of tariffs is used to force the elimination of tariffs and trade restrictions on US goods and services imposed by China. Trump is for the elimination of all tariffs and regulations. See how that works.

Again only 3 months of data ?? No trend or conclusion can be rationally made using data from such a short time frame.

 

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Yeah, I am seeing first hand how the threat of tariffs on soybeans work. Check the price of soybeans and the futures. Has China stopped dumping steel yet?

It doesn't matter whether there is a trend or not. We were told the tax cuts would pay for themselves, and they aren't. We were told the tax cuts would raise wages, and wages not only haven't gone up, but they have declined since the tax cut. We were told the middle class would benefit from the tax cut, and they aren't. We were told business would invest in workers and not in buying back their own stock, but almost every dime of the business tax cut has gone to buying back stocks. We were told the tax cuts would provide 3% growth in the GDP, and the GDP is on the same track it was on before the tax cuts, just as economists told us it would. Who told us all that? Republicans did, when they rammed this through without a single Democratic vote. Republicans didn't like that Democrats rammed through Obamacare. Now, the shoe is on the other foot, and adding trillions to the debt, and telling veterans we can't afford health care for them without cuts. Do you really think veterans voted for Trump so their health care can be cut after the tax cut?

 

Wow - all this on 3 months of data. Impressive.

 

Granny says, "Well...

... mebbe it would if all the Trump nay-sayers...

... would shut up an' let him do his job."

 

As fake POTUS?

First Usurper?

First Fornicator?

First Grifter?

Deceiver in Chief?

Donald can't keep it up.

 

I hope granny isn’t on a fixed income.

 

There's no such thing as a fixed income.

 

Hmm sounds like you might be a farmer, if so then let's be honest bottom dropped out of soybeans in 2014 wasn't Obama on watch? In fact todays prices ar roughly the same as they were in the beginning of 2016 so not sure how you can blame anything on tariffs

 

I’m sure you’re right. Retaliatory tariffs on soybeans by China, our chief export customer, had no effect on our farmers. Idiot.

 

They are no longer a "threat". I guess negotiations didn't work.

As for working on 3 months data, this was easily predictable. It is relatively simple. Unfortunately the damage will be long term.

The economy was strong, we had made enormous progress. Have you ever heard of the saying "If it isn't broke, don't fix it?"

 

Especially tariffs that don't exist in practice.

 

Sometimes the threat must be implemented in order to prove that the threat is real. That's part of negotiations. There is nothing long term about tariffs after they are removed. Our international trade agreements are broken. Trump is fixing them.

 

Name one soy bean farmer who has been harmed ?? The Chinese are hurting themselves by raising the price of soybeans to the Chinese citizens and industries. If the Chinese government continues to buy soybeans in the same quantities US farmers will not be harmed. The Chinese government controls the Chinese industrial complex. It is their decision on the supply of US soybeans they import.

 

Might want to watch who your calling an idiot, this is my field there Aks. I forgot more about this industry in the last minute than you will ever know. That being said, they don't help but there not the only reason for the fall idiot. They weren't in 2014 in 2016 either idiot. Go play your partisan politics on somebody else that can't school you.

 

Consumer confidence has been going up consistently since 2009.

 

So how much does the farmer lose if soybeans are $8.00?

 

For someone who claims to be in the industry like you do, you are jumping through hoops to deny that the tariffs are hurting.

 

I own a farm, yes.
I assume you do not, or if you do, you don't grow soybeans. This year's crop is in the field now and the market has evaporated due to tariffs.

China's tariff on soybeans doesn't mean they will buy fewer American soybeans. It means they aren't buying American soybeans, period. They are buying from other countries and have put in subsidies for their own farmers to grow more soybeans. We are losing this $14Billion market in China. If we remove tariffs eventually, there's no guarantee we will ever get that market back.

Goldman analysts say this has created a well-timed buying opportunity, as the selloff was overdone. According to the bank, the U.S.-China trade war impact on commodities “will be very small, with the exception of soybeans where complete rerouting of supplies is not possible.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...ommodities-halftime-report-2018/#76889a088ae1
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Here's your price comparison back past 2014. Check where we are now compared to the low spot in 2014.


Now look at the last part more closely:


https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybeans-price

What happened between April and now?

 

Isn't it amazing that so many think the economy turned completely, only after Trump was elected?

 

I have a question. If the Fed doesn't see growth rates topping 4%, why are they raising the prime rate?

 

The FED raises interest rates to control inflation. Inflation and GDP are very different things.

The GDP is expected to hover at or near 2% until 2060. This is not new news. Congress knew these numbers and discounted them saying the tax cut would stimulate the economy to 3% growth. It hasn't and isn't going to.