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U.S. Economy Flashes Signs It’s Downhill From Here

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018.

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  1. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I guess it was going to happen sooner or later.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-flashes-signs-its-downhill-from-here-1540656002

    private analysts and the Federal Reserve say a slowdown is looming. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate the growth rate will slow to 2.5% by the first quarter of next year and 2.3% by the third quarter of 2019. The Fed is expecting growth to slow further to a 1.8% rate by 2021.

    “We think U.S. growth may have just peaked,” said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist for Barclays Capital, who is in Wall Street’s big-slowdown camp.
     
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
    #1
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  2. 61falcon

    61falcon Well-Known Member

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    Third quarter pay increase a paltry 0.4%,not really reflecting a low unemployment rate and supposedly booming business??
     
    61falcon, Oct 31, 2018
    #2
  3. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And the stock market is still below January levels by about 1 600 points. We are being told the economy is just fantastic, but it is really not true. The housing market is going down as well.
     
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
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  4. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    This year will be the first time we've had 3% GDP growth since 2005.

    The economy is doing well despite the volatility in the stock market (the Dow is up 449 points as we speak). We went through similar fluctuations earlier in the year and despite the doomsday predictions and prayers of Leftists like Bill Maher who are hoping for recession the economy is still chugging along.

    It's likely growth could slow given rising interest rates, but it's equally likely the big slowdown camp will continue to be just as wrong next year as they've been this year.

    Here are some of today's economic headlines:

    World stocks rally on strong earnings reports (ABC)
    Stocks rally again - GM surges (CNBC)
    Facebook earnings, strong job growth drive stock market's big gains (IBD)

    Try not to despair - the sky is not falling...
     
    Talon, Oct 31, 2018
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  5. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    That remains to be seen.
    Why don't you look at where we were just a month ago before you pop the champagne. This will be the worst year in the market since the recession.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2018
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
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  6. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    True, but if consumer spending holds up it should be a good Holiday season and 4th quarter. 3% growth for the entire year is easily within reach. :)
     
    Talon, Oct 31, 2018
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  7. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    October wrap-up.

    The S&P 500 lost 6.9 percent, its biggest one-month slide since September 2011, when it fell 7.2 percent.

    The Dow dropped 5.1 percent to post its biggest monthly fall since January 2016, when it dropped 5.5 percent.

    The Nasdaq plunged 9.2 percent, its largest monthly pullback since November 2008, when it shed 10.8 percent.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2018
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
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  8. Talon

    Talon Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And stocks are rallying:

    Dow Jones Industrial Average Starting To Look Bullish Again

    Top Stock Gainers: Visa, Goldman Sachs, Microsoft Power Dow Jones To Solid Gain

    Dow Jones Industrial Average Jumps Over 200 Points After Strong Earnings Reports from General Motors, Facebook

    Stocks Rally to Two-Week High on Technology Surge: Markets Wrap

    History Says the Dow Jones Industrial Average Will Be Higher in 6 Months

    Market volatility doesn't impress or concern me. I look more to fundamentals than stock prices to assess the economy and its direction.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2018
    Talon, Oct 31, 2018
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  9. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Are we going back down to Obama levels?

    That's depressing.
     
    vman12, Oct 31, 2018
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  10. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Actually I wish we were at those growth levels, but I doubt we'll never see such prolonged period of growth again.

    2008 - 33
    2009 +19
    2010 +11
    2011 +5.5
    2012 +7.3
    2013 +26
    2014 +7.5
    2015 -2
    2016 +13
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2018
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
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  11. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You can celebrate a one day gain, but it was a horrible month, and by the looks of it the entire year will wrap up in red.
     
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
    #11
  12. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You should sell everything!!!
     
    Doofenshmirtz, Oct 31, 2018
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  13. vman12

    vman12 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hahahahaha!
     
    vman12, Oct 31, 2018
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  14. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'll do what I think is best for my situation. Thanks.
     
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
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  15. ocean515

    ocean515 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Always interesting to see Progressives rooting for bad economic news.

    Certainly helps to solidify the underlying objectives they have for the US.
     
    ocean515, Oct 31, 2018
    #15
  16. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not a progressive, nor rooting to see the markets in the toilet. Don't get so sensitive when people discuss current issues.

    I simply refuse to pretend everything is "better than ever" when it is obviously not true.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2018
    Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018
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  17. ocean515

    ocean515 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Suit yourself. I'm not sensitive. Just observant.

    Anyone who would want to return the record malaise history will forever record from the Obama Administration, is clearly not someone who brings any objectivity to the question of current issues.
     
    ocean515, Oct 31, 2018
    #17
  18. Doofenshmirtz

    Doofenshmirtz Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If you really believe its going down hill, you would be running the same direction as the other sheep, right? Sell! Sell!

    I just love predictions!
     
    Doofenshmirtz, Oct 31, 2018
    #18
  19. Durandal

    Durandal Well-Known Member Donor

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    The economy recovered and grew just fine under Obama. The doom and gloom of those years was right-wing BULLSHIT, not reality.
     
    Durandal, Oct 31, 2018
    #19
  20. ocean515

    ocean515 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The historic economic record of the previous administration will not shine brightly on Obama. That is the reality.
     
    ocean515, Oct 31, 2018
    #20
  21. cd8ed

    cd8ed Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Obama cut the deficit every full year he was in office — during an economic recession and the stock market increased every year but one.

    Trump has increased the deficit every year he has been in office — during growth and relative stability — and the stock gains are about to be wiped off for the year.

    The same people that were screaming the government was propping up the economy during the Obama administration are suddenly silent. I guess the answer is more tax cuts to the rich! That always seems to work......
     
    cd8ed, Oct 31, 2018
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  22. yiostheoy

    yiostheoy Well-Known Member

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    The Federal Reserve Bank slowed it down with their overdue interest rate hikes.

    No more free money. Not after Trump's tax cuts for the rich.
     
    yiostheoy, Oct 31, 2018
    #22
  23. yiostheoy

    yiostheoy Well-Known Member

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    +3 is anemic.

    +5 is quite good.

    +7 is extraordinary.

    All the world is coming down now from +7 and the USA is coming down from +3.

    That's reality.

    The Dubya and Obama economic stimulus could not last forever.

    The Fed has seen this for a long time and now they have finally acted.

    Too bad for Trump there is a midterm election coming up in a week too. It all makes him look too silly.
     
    yiostheoy, Oct 31, 2018
    #23
  24. yiostheoy

    yiostheoy Well-Known Member

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    Great thread @Pro_Line_FL . I am adding you to my follow list.
     
    yiostheoy, Oct 31, 2018
    #24
  25. ocean515

    ocean515 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What record does President Obama hold with regards to debt? Want to talk about that?
     
    ocean515, Oct 31, 2018
    #25
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