U.S. Economy Flashes Signs It’s Downhill From Here

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by Pro_Line_FL, Oct 31, 2018.

  1. Pro_Line_FL

    Pro_Line_FL Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    IMO, you are doing the right thing, because we are probably near the peak now. I am also listing one.
     
  2. BahamaBob

    BahamaBob Banned

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    You need to read, I assume you can read your own source. Below is an insert from it. The last paragraph shows the only rate hike under Obama.

    Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) (December 2008 to December 2015)[edit]
    In August 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) target for the federal funds rate was 5.25 percent. Sixteen months later, with the financial crisis in full swing, the FOMC had lowered the target for the federal funds rate to nearly zero, thereby entering the unfamiliar territory of having to conduct monetary policy with the policy interest rate at its effective lower bound. The unusual severity of the recession and ongoing strains in financial markets made the challenges facing monetary policymakers all the greater.[6]

    In the height of the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower overnight interest rates to zero to help with easing of money and credit. Over the past five years, the Federal Reserve has acted to support economic growth and foster job creation, and it is important to achieve further progress, particularly in the labor market. Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.[6]

    Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2, November 2010 to June 2011 )[edit]
    On November 3, 2010, the Fed announced that it would purchase $600 billion of longer dated treasuries, at a rate of $75 billion per month. That program, popularly known as "QE2", concluded in June 2011.

    Operation Twist (2011)[edit]
    The Federal Open Market Committee concluded its September 21, 2011 Meeting at about 2:15 p.m. EDT by announcing the implementation of Operation Twist. This is a plan to purchase $400 billion of bonds with maturities of 6 to 30 years and to sell bonds with maturities less than 3 years, thereby extending the average maturity of the Fed's own portfolio.[7]This is an attempt to do what Quantitative Easing (QE) tries to do, without printing more money and without expanding the Fed's balance sheet, therefore hopefully avoiding the inflationary pressure associated with QE.[4] This announcement brought a bout of risk aversion in the equity markets and strengthened the US Dollar, whereas QE I had weakened the USD and supported the equity markets. Further, on June 20, 2012 the Federal Open Market Committee announced an extension to the Twist programme by adding additionally $267 billion thereby extending it throughout 2012.

    Quantitative Easing 3 (QE3, September 2012 to December 2013)[edit]
    On September 13, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of quantitative easing (QE3).[8] This new round of quantitative easing provided for an open-ended commitment to purchase $40 billion agency mortgage-backed securities per month until the labor market improves "substantially". Some economists believe that Scott Sumner's blog[9] on nominal income targeting played a role in popularizing the "wonky, once-eccentric policy" of "unlimited QE".[10]

    The Federal Open Market Committee voted to expand its quantitative easing program further on December 12, 2012. This round continued to authorize up to $40 billion worth of agency mortgage-backed securities per month and added $45 billion worth of longer-term Treasury securities.[11] The outright Treasury purchases as part of the augmented program continued at a pace comparable to that under "Operation Twist"; however, the Federal Reserve could no longer sell short-dated Treasury securities to buy longer-dated ones since they had insufficient holdings of short-dated Treasuries.

    On December 18, 2013 the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee announced they would be tapering back on QE3 at a rate of $ 10 billion at each meeting.[12] The Federal Reserve ended its monthly asset purchases program (QE3) in October 2014, ten months after it began the tapering process.[13]

    December 2015 historic interest rate hike[edit]
    On December 16, 2015 the Fed increased its key interest rate, the Federal Funds Rate, for the first time since June 2006. The hike was from the range [0%, 0.25%] to the range [0.25%, 0.5%].[14]
     
  3. Fred C Dobbs

    Fred C Dobbs Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Good call. The prediction, as you probably know, is a 'softening' in the market and the midterm results may speed the process along. I'm selling one next week and the other soon, I believe, and they're both terrific buys. I just want out, buy an RV, and chill. ).
     
    Pro_Line_FL likes this.
  4. LangleyMan

    LangleyMan Well-Known Member

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    Quit selling snake oil. Trump got a last gasp out of this business cycle by juicing the economy with a budget busting tax cut. Real wages have dropped since he took office.
     
  5. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Every day we have more people in the USA and the world...all of them potential consumers. We have constantly changing technology and innovation opening doors to new and better stuff. Many nations are developing economically. More and improved world-wide communications gives more and more people access to information. While we continue to have fighting and wars, and too many nuclear weapons, my guess is most people on Earth are seeking peace and calm. Yes there will be hiccups, recessions, adjustments, along the way but I don't see any reason why the general trend should not be UP...
     
  6. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Adding more people doesn't automatically increase the amount of consumption in proportion to the number of people.
    People have to be workers first, before they can be consumers.
     
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2018
  7. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    The real problem is that the US, like most Western nations, is fixated on maximising growth. There is insufficient attention to sustainability. It doesn't help when there are nutjob comments like "Let's continue to destroy the competitiveness of our factories & manufacturing so we can fight mythical global warming. China is so happy!"
     
  8. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    All of them are developing economically...all of them are potential consumers...
     
  9. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Not the US...it's the peckerwood we have as president...who stupidly believes in maximizing growth at the cost to everything else...his time will come and hopefully someone more reasonable will take over...
     
  10. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Given the US's overconsumption, you can't just blame the current cretin.
     
  11. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Yes Americans are hell-bent on consumption and this just makes it easier for peckerwood to ruin everything...
     
  12. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Isn't America already ruining everything? Imagine of the rest of the world tried to mimic America's waste
     
  13. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    And potential workers earning more than they consume, for the meantime.

    One of the big things they're consuming is housing space, and there doesn't seem to be enough of that for everybody.
     
  14. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yeah, better for those in economically depressed regions like Michigan to go back to overdosing on opioids.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2018
  15. yiostheoy

    yiostheoy Well-Known Member

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    With the Fed raising the rates therefore the artificial stimulus had to end sometime.
     
  16. Derideo_Te

    Derideo_Te Well-Known Member

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    The problem occurs when the greed obsessed Wall Street Casino Bosses continue to DEMAND ever larger PROFITS in a slowing economy.

    That forces corporations to LAY OFF WORKERS in order to meet the Wall Street Casino Bosses extortionist demands given that the alternative is that they will DOWNGRADE the stocks AFTER they have already sold off their own positions.

    Those layoffs will result in a RECESSION that is already long OVERDUE.

    Once again PROFITS OVER PEOPLE is the unfettered capitalist dogma that is driving the momentum towards Bernie's Revolution.

    Some things never change, unfortunately.
     
    Mr_Truth likes this.
  17. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    The US is a great place to live...unfortunately PEOPLE will eventually ruin it...politicians simply pimp themselves to the tribe...
     
  18. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Capitalism will provide whatever the consumer demands...
     
  19. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Could the world ape the levels of US consumption? If not, the US's consumption levels should be deemed to be unsustainable.
     
  20. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Why are they economically depressed? How long have they been depressed? IMO local governments there have failed to adjust and move forward...
     
  21. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Remember that 95% of the world's population is outside of the US...tremendous consumer potential exists...give everyone time and they will follow the US path of over-consumption...
     
  22. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    They can't. Its not possible, we have neither the resources or the environment!
     
  23. OldManOnFire

    OldManOnFire Well-Known Member

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    Never say never...
     
  24. Reiver

    Reiver Well-Known Member

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    Given we're already in a mass extinction event and 'losses in vertebrate species averaged 60% between 1970 and 2014', I think I'm on safe ground.
     
  25. Anikdote

    Anikdote Well-Known Member

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    We've not gone all Malthusian have we?

    Don't be so grim, we might advance our way out of it. If not though, looks like the private rocket companies will at least get some off us off this rock. =)
     

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