Were I with the Alarmist crowd, I would be in a state of panic right now. Imagine Katrina roaring outside. And who recalls the dire predictions? We were told by the Alarmists that Katrina was going to be normal. We were going to be proven to be wrong. So again, we accept climate changes. I can't imagine an Earth with a static climate. I enjoy the wonders of change. Would I return to the glaciers that once were all over the upper parts of America? Well no. Would I wish a visit to Yosemite Valley was to peer at a glacier there? NO. I love that valley. It is more stunning to me than is the Grand Canyon or Yellowstone. My problem with the Grand Canyon I suppose has to be you must drive many miles to get there. And when there, you see layers upon layers of ancient layers of Earth. I can remain in Yosemite for weeks and never tire of it. It has so many new things to see and enjoy .... Anyway, not to dismiss the grand canyon since it has plenty to see if one takes the time and makes the effort. But where are those Hurricanes we were promised? https://www.cnsnews.com/news/articl...3b0JBc2RXNXRtU3l2NU1oZGlTellRUkpHZGtIMVFrOSJ9
Yes, Texas will be a mess by Saturday. That thing is expected to just hang out for some time. I don't understand your question, though. We understand a lot about hurricanes, but the atmosphere is so dynamic, it's literally impossible to account for every variable. It's not even (currently) possible to know how many variables contribute to the creation of a hurricane. It makes them awfully difficult to predict with 100% accuracy. Even with all that, they've gotten pretty darn good at it over the last couple of decades.
When one shows up, they can discuss a path, severity of winds, etc. What I am discussing is we were promised many many severe hurricanes. If they could not have predicted them, are they now to be believed? And they got wiped out. Their predictions were false.
Well, you weren't promised anything. You were given a guess based on known variables (like El Niño and La Niña, for example, who have a proven impact on hurricane seasons.) There were a few people in the hurricane community, like Judith Curry, who, about 10 years ago, predicted that climate change would cause more hurricanes every year. She has since admitted she was wrong on that. (She was basically talking out her ass, since there's not much knowledge how the climate impacts hurricanes.)
Judith Curry e mails me reports. She is an expert on hurricanes. She herself admits she once was wrong. She was too accepting the notion science is settled. Since both El Nino and La Nina are in the Pacific, and the serious hurricanes I speak of originate off Africa's coast in the Atlantic, try again to link El Nino or La Nina to such hurricanes as was Katrina?
You pretty much just repeated what I said about Judith Curry. El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. These climate cycles aren't the only reason we do/don't have hurricanes. We have no current way of knowing all the things that cause a hurricane.
Here is a typical report from Dr. Judith Curry. I am proud she put me on her mailing list. https://judithcurry.com/2017/08/20/reviewing-the-climate-science-special-report/#more-23295 Use link to read all of it.
Well, I hoped with my short commentary plus the link to the entire article, it came clear. Thus added to the topic when replying back. The point being the alarmists told us we were not in for it. That we were going to have climate change by men proven to us by a lot more hurricanes that were as bad as Katrina and even worse. This is almost 12 years later and they lied to us. Do you like being lied to? I don't.
Judith Curry lied to you. Got it. She didn't lie to me. My husband was at the National Hurricane Conference when she said that we'd have a bunch more hurricanes. He called her on her bunk. I knew it was a lie all the way back then.
What lie? She says openly she trusted the notion that the science was settled. She got very nosy and now knows she got lied to. I am pleased you dismiss the alarmist quacks.
She is terribly incompetent. The hurricane experts, including Dr Gray and my husband, refused to attempt to make any correlation between hurricanes and the changing climate. It was her doing that at the 2006 National Hurricane Conference.
She has a great following of good scientists. I doubt you like Richard Lindzen either. She is in the business today of prediction. And I think companies do value her expertise. Thank you for not linking hurricanes to climate. That is in large part my major point to begin with. Read what Curry says about her former beliefs and why she believed things back then.
I've only gotten 1thing of any significance out of this thread. Can anyone explain to me how a 'red team' review is a bad thing? It seems to be that that type of scrutiny would be the norm.
Warmer weather causes more hurricanes. This is an objective fact. And the temperature has risen. So on average there will be more hurricanes. But hurricanes happen unpredictably and you can go a while without seeing a major one. And your estimate is complete garbage. Hurricane Sandy the second most expensive hurricane in history happened 67 months ago. Hurricane Matthew just last year was a Category 5 hurricane which is the largest type and pounded the east coast costing 15 billion dollars in damages.
Who promised that? Al Gore? The consensus among experts is that hurricanes may become less frequent, but more intense with global warming. This is hotly debated right now with many mixed opinions so there's really no clear prediction regarding what effect AGW will truly have on hurricanes. And besides...are you forgetting Hurricane Matthew, Hurricane Patricia, Hurricane Sandy, Typhoon Haiyan, and many other very intense cyclones that have occurred in the last 5 years.
The distinction is that the a hurricane hasn't made landfall in the United States and I'm sure that this statistical anomaly of not making landfall is a huge comfort to those 47 people that died in the US during Matthew.
OK, we have warmer water off the western coast of Africa. We now have Irma and several others following. Time for an expert to explain this to the forum. https://judithcurry.com/2017/09/08/hurricane-irma-eyes-florida/#more-23347
