USA should prepare for the hypothesis of a civil war in western Europe

Discussion in 'Western Europe' started by VotreAltesse, Jan 16, 2018.

  1. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Hello,

    I'm living in France, and I think that the USA and other countries should prepare for the possibility of a civil war in western europe.

    Recently, western europe soldiers had to patrol the streets of their own countries to prevent djihadist to kill people. Historically, there is only two kind of countries who have their own soldiers in their own streets : military dictatorship or countries before a civil war.

    Firemen, policemen and ambulances are assaulted when they go in some districts of some cities.

    Thousands of young islamic men joined Europe recently.

    The possibility is rather strong either in France or UK.

    I don't think that the USA should prepare to save our ass, France, UK chose their destiny, however both of those countries have numerous nuclear plants and have nukes. The USA and the other superpower (China, Russia) should seriously study that possibility because that kind of civil war would threaten the entire world if some djihadists got nukes or nuclear material in their hands.

    The only other reason to intervene would be to save the artistic legacy of those regions. They're precious legacy for the entire mankind, and more precious than many live.
     
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  2. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    What a load of absolute rubbish!

    Even if the current levels of immigration continues, the non-native proportion of our populations will continue to be a minority and the number of those willing and able to engaging in any kind of unified conflict against nation states will be minimal. And for all the political and social divisions within and between our countries, we’d very quickly come together to resist any ill-fated attempt, to the point that calling such an event a civil war would be incorrect. Islamists use occasional, individual acts of terrorism because it’s the only option they have.

    If anything, you should be looking to the US for prospect of civil war (though still highly unlikely), given the deep divisions there are between different groups of US citizens there and their more recent history of civil war over issues that still aren’t entirely settled, compared to European civil wars and conflicts where the causes are largely irrelevant today.
     
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  3. The Scotsman

    The Scotsman Well-Known Member

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    Oh do be quiet!!
     
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  4. Baff

    Baff Well-Known Member

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    If the EU wishes to become a nation. Civil war is required.
    War is coming to Europe.

    Choose your side.
     
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  5. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Ever heard of urban warfare and quid pro quo terrorism? You're probably right about it not being organised resistance, but as with jihadists, it only needs a few hard-line extremists to cause total havoc in any society. They're ratcheting it up now because they have no fear of the consequences; for example those who are currently being tried for terrorist plans for Big Ben and other central London targets are laughing their heads off at the West's 'due process' when they'd really expect to be disappeared. VotreAltesse is right, and the **** is about to hit the fan big-time - and believe me, it'll eventually be coming to a shopping centre, or a park, or some other public place near you.
     
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  6. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I never suggested otherwise, only that it wouldn’t be the civil war that the OP predicted by any stretch of the definition.
     
  7. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    During the religion war, protestants were a minority in France too, it didn't prevented any war. The fact that they stay a minority (which is not that sure, there is migrants, a better birth rate) is far to be sure and not a decisive factor.
    It's not only about non native, who attacks the firemen, the ambulances, the policemen ? Often grandson of migrants.
     
  8. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I wouldn't bet on it; sometimes things get out of hand. Either way it isn't gonna be pleasant for any of us. We've walked straight into what will undoubtedly become a living nightmare.
     
  9. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    France has always had terrorist attacks..

    .https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_France
     
  10. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The we’re French protestants though and a much larger minority. They were also the initial targets of attack by the controlling majority and religion was very much an excuse rather than a driving motive for a small number of individual nobles to secure political power. There is pretty much no point of comparison.

    Muslims in France and the UK are a tiny minority and they’re not a singular grouping (for example, a significant proportion are Shia) so no realistic scale of immigration is going to shift that in the immediate future. You also ignore the point that you’re talking about conflict initiated by outsiders so even if you got your fantasy war, it wouldn’t be a civil war. You’re only (mis)using that term because it has more emotive power.

    There are plenty of real problems in this area. I don’t see any legitimate reason for imagining potential new ones rather than addressing the realities of the ones we actually have (we all know what the illegitimate reason is).
     
  11. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes and since 30 years, almost all deadly attacks are carried by islamic groups.

    Terrorists attacks aren't the only factor.

    You have to consider that the police services of the last years are far better at preventing terrorist attacks, they prevented a lot of terrorist attacks who would have been prevented.
    Furthermore, the fact that even the firemen and ambulances can't enter in some district is rather alarming.

    In France, it's around 10 to 20 % of the population, and much younger than the rest of the population. That's not that much tiny, and the fact it's a minority didn't prevented some civil wars.

    Not really. Let's take the 2005 riots, what would happen if some similar riots happened today ? We know that black market brought a lot of weapons in those districts. 2005 riots in France were already extremly violent, but today, the islamic ideology progressed and some djihadist succeed to go back in France.

    I'm not saying it's sure there would be a civil war, but I think it's a serious possibility.
     
  12. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    I remember soldiers in Paris in the 1980s.
     
  13. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Possible.
     
  14. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    I made several trips to Paris in the 1980s. Are you saying you don't remember the soldiers?
     
  15. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It would be very hard for me to remember anything in the 80's because I wasn't born.
     
  16. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Around 10% and that’s largely from presumptions based on nationality or background, catching . Are you working on the assumption that every single Muslim is an active threat to the nation?

    Same thing that happened then. A bunch of thug kids would blow off some steam and frustration, some criminal gangs (not all Muslim) would take the opportunity to do some looting, a whole load of innocent people will suffer harm and loss and a whole bunch of politicians and political operatives will try to blame their pre-determined enemies regardless of the facts. None of that is good but it’s nowhere close to any kind of civil war and pretending that it is singularly (and possible intentionally) avoids addressing the reality of the problems which triggered those riots in the first place (to be clear, Islam is only one of those many problems).

    Well what are you suggesting we do about it? Your OP suggests you’re resigned to your fate.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2018
  17. Margot2

    Margot2 Banned

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    That's what I figured...........
     
  18. RiaRaeb

    RiaRaeb Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    There already is a war in Europe, it has been fought in Ireland for centuries!
     
  19. cerberus

    cerberus Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's no good, you'll never persuade the apologists to recognize and accept the realities. 'There are none so blind as those who won't see.'
     
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  20. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    No. An opinion pool showed that at least 28 % of muslims in France consider that sha'riah law are superior to the one of the republic. I think we can consider that at least 28 % of muslims are an active threat. If I remember well, 1/3 were considered integrated or in the way of integration, 1/3 in a grey zone and 1/3 radicalized. It means that potentially, there is hundred of thousands of people ready to wage war in France.

    Yes, the problem of riots it's sometimes turn into wars. Often, one of the element to turn a riot into a civil war (or a revolution, depend of the point of view), you need an ideology. Some riots will stay riots because the anger isn't directed in any sense.

    I'm not sure there would be a civil war, I think it should be considered as a serious possibility however.
    I believe less and less in political action and tend to consider that our personnal change is the first factor of change in a country. I wish there would be more true debate about islams, most of them are "for or against muslims", I don't care of muslims, we should speak of what matters, the texts.

    I'm in my late twenties, not mentally deficient... Furthermore, the pace of mortal attacks accelerated. I'm not basing my whole post on the fact I saw soldiers in the street once.

    Yes and there is troubles in corsica for dozen of years too, however, corsican terrorism aimed very rarely people but mostly buildings. That's why it's stupid to compare just the number of terrorist attacks.
     
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2018
  21. HonestJoe

    HonestJoe Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You’re cherry picking your statistics and jumping to unjustified conclusions. The same survey reportedly had 46% secularised or integrated and the statement the 28% agreed with doesn’t automatically imply they’re willing or able to wage an open war against France.

    Of course. The point is that you’ve given no concrete reasons why riots similar to previous ones in France could do so. You’re just flinging mud to see if anything will stick. We could equally point out that social division and discrimination can sometimes turn into genocide and thus suggest that Muslims in Europe are under as much potentially threat from native Europeans as the other way around. Thankfully, I don’t see either extreme as being very likely unless we choose to take actions towards them.

    I’d say the exact opposite actually. No book has ever declared war on anyone. Focusing obsessively on our own interpretations of particular religious texts makes no sense when Muslims themselves don’t agree on them and, much like most Christians, many don’t follow them literally anyway. Dealing with the reality of the individual human beings around us who happen to be Muslim is a much more positive way to avoid conflict.
     
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  22. Ned Lud

    Ned Lud Banned

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    Right wing Americans are extraordinarily weird, and the decent ones will have to fight them soon or else end up in death-camps.
     
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  23. VotreAltesse

    VotreAltesse Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    I'm not american.
     
  24. Ned Lud

    Ned Lud Banned

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    Stay safe in Europe, lucky man!
     
  25. Cheddar

    Cheddar Member

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    All it needs is a few politicians to grow some goolies - and admit Enoch was RIGHT!
     
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