Vaccinated who are in hospital have a higher chance of dying

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Pandemic Discussions' started by kazenatsu, Sep 12, 2021.

  1. AKS

    AKS Well-Known Member

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    What did he say that you disagree with? What would YOU expect for the relative percentages to be IF the vax were effective?
     
  2. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    The math fail is not grasping that the overall number of people who end up hospitalised, is dramatically lower in the vaccinated, than in the unvaccinated. The number who ultimately die while vaccinated, would still be around the same percentage of their (much smaller) cohort as the unvaccinated though, because there always people who can't be saved by anything, simply because their health is so fragile.

    To put it in simpler terms:

    1000 people (aged between 40 and 60, of 'average' health) are infected with Delta, 500 vaccinated and 500 unvaccinated. The vaccinated cohort sees 5% of their number hospitalised, and the unvaccinated sees 50% hospitalised. Each group ultimately loses 2% of their hospitalised cohort. So it's 2% of that 5%, or 2% of the 50%.

    Keeping in mind that when 80% of your population is vaccinated, then around 80% of those hospitalised with Delta will obviously be vaccinated. So saying "80%+ of hospitalised people are vaccinated" as though that's a shocking surprise, is silly. Kinda like saying 100% of water is wet, and being horrified by that.
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2021
  3. AKS

    AKS Well-Known Member

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    NO, that's NOT what Kazenatsu said: "If the vaccine is so good, then the percentage of those who are dying who were vaccinated should not be very similar to the percentage of the population who are vaccinated."

    I don't know the specific numbers but if the vax works you would indeed expect that the majority of dead (NOT % of the hospitalizations that died) would not be vaccinated.

    To put it in simple terms, if the vaccination helps prevent death then the % of dead vaccinated people MUST be less than the percentage of vaccinated in the community. Is this not blatantly obvious to you?

    I think its you that's a little math challenged. If 80% of the population is vaccinated you would expect MUCH less than 80% of the hospitalized to be vaccinated (if the shot is affording any protection that is).
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2021
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  4. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    1) In a populace which is fully vaccinated, how can the percentage of unvaccinated dead be greater than vaccinated dead? It's nonsensical. When the vast majority of those becoming seriously ill are VACCINATED, then it follows that those who go on to die will be vaccinated.

    2) Vaccination does not prevent infection! It prevents serious illness as a result of infection. Whatever number of hospitalisations you're seeing in a fully vaccinated populace, it's a fraction of what would have been had the populace been unvaccinated.

    3) No, you wouldn't. You would expect exactly the same amount, because hospitalisations are a mirror of the populace. If the vast majority of populace has red hair, then the vast majority of people hospitalised (for anything) will have red hair - obviously. In this instance, the vaccine reduces the number of hospitalisations overall.
     
  5. AKS

    AKS Well-Known Member

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    Holy Moly! Do you understand probability? If the vax doesn't affect the chance of death at all then you would expect the same % of vaccinated dead as vaccinated in public. If the shot helps you would see a lower %. I'm sorry but it's middle school math.
     
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  6. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Okay .. let's try this part again:

    When the vast majority of your populace is VACCINATED, then the vast majority of those who end up hospitalised will be VACCINATED. The difference is in the number of people hospitalised. That's 'the shot helping'.

    The vaccination does not prevent infection, it reduces hospitalisations.
     

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