VOA: "Protests in Iraq and Lebanon Pose a Challenge to Iran"

I am surprised there haven't been any threads on the recent protests in Iraq and Lebanon.

Iran views these protests with great suspicion and I personally believe that even though they build on actual economic grievances (the causes of which I will explain later but aren't unrelated to US-Saudi policies against Iran), there are foreign inspired elements trying to steer them in an anti-Iran direction. A direction which they are already being steered towards through the propaganda apparatus reflected in western media, and in Saudi financed media, political and other sources in the region, and more.

For now, let me just say this: I consider the Israeli/Saudi inspired, US obsession with undercutting Iran's position in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, to be foolish and misguided. It will only lead to greater instability, war and chaos and will not prove to be in US interests either. But that is where we have been for a quite a while now.

https://www.voanews.com/middle-east/protests-iraq-and-lebanon-pose-challenge-iran
Protests in Iraq and Lebanon Pose a Challenge to Iran

 

I always loved Beirut.. Iran should leave them alone.

 

The Lebanese civil war in 1976 predated the Iranian revolution. Nor did Iran have anything to do with Israel's invasion of Lebanon in 1982. Indeed the only real stability and peace that Lebanon has known has been in the years following the 2006 war launched by Israel against Lebanon in the years representing the height of Iranian influence in Lebanon.

The problem faced by Lebanon now has a lot to do with US efforts to dry up a lot of transactions in Lebanon's banking system, and targeting various other sources of revenue in Lebanon, as part of the maximum pressure campaign against Iran in Lebanon. Going along with these actions, the Lebanese are then told that culprit is Iran and Hezbollah's ties and the cooperation by Lebanon's Christian president and Christian foreign minister with Hezbollah. They are told the solution is to cut these ties to Iran and everything will be alright. All the Lebanese need to do is look back at their own history and ask if that is really the case? For the Shia in Lebanon, who constitute the largest population group in the country, that is certainly not the case. And even for the rest, since all Lebanese do get to vote in free elections (albeit in a system that over-represents the Christians and largely disenfranchises the Shia), the best evidence of what they think is how they vote in their elections. Otherwise, any substantial political movement or party can bring people to the streets. Hezbollah and the Shia parties, in fact, can fill those streets with many more demonstrators - as they have done in the past.

 

I spent a lot of time in Beirut.. You want Hezbollah and Shia protestors filling the streets in Lebanon? Why is that?

 

No more or less than I want any other movement to show its support through demonstrations. What I really want is people in any country which provides the right to vote their preferences, to use that vehicle to express their views. And to use any 'demonstrations' only for democratic electoral reform, not for undoing the results of democratic elections (which already over-represent by virtue of Lebanon's system the majority of the people who are engaging in these demonstrations).

 

The usual paranoia of totalitarian/authoritarian regime and its citizens. Nazis everywhere saw Jews conspiracy, nowadays Russia and looks like Iran too everywhere see American conspiracy.

 

Does Iran make that better and more peaceful or stable in Lebanon?

 

If the US/Saudi Arabia stopped meddling, and promoting an agenda to weaken Hezbollah and Iranian influence in Lebanon, yes it would. Israel is not in a position to attack Lebanon at will as it did in the past, as it will suffer huge losses if it does so. That deterrence thanks to Hezbollah brings peace to Lebanon. Otherwise, besides that role, Hezbollah is a political party in Lebanon, represents (along with Amal) the largest population in Lebanon, and works closely with many other groups in that country including what are referred to as Hezbollah allies, namely Lebanon's Christian president and Christian foreign minister. If the US stopped the economic and diplomatic and other warfare they are engaged in against Iran, not only would Iran prosper, but so would Lebanon.

Even though the JCPOA only removed secondary US sanctions, and not primary US sanctions against Iran, and even though almost all international banks refused to work with Iran for fear of US reprisals and sanctions even when the JCPOA was in effect, and although the overall propaganda and warfare against Iran remained unabated during the few years the JCPOA was half-heatedly being observed by the US, Iran still experienced some of the world's top GDP growth rates in those years. And Lebanon wasn't suffering from the same issues as it has since suffered, even though the Saudis in particular were making a lot of financial moves cutting Lebanon from Saudi money during that time.

I might be able to understand why Israel doesn't want to find a neighbor that can deter it from invading it, but I don't understand why any other country (including the US) would have a problem with how things were in Lebanon at the time. Even the Saudis are simply off on the wrong track.

 

Why would Israel invade Lebanon at this point in time?

 

It would not do so now, without a good reason, but it would if Lebanon was defenseless. The pretexts could come in any form, but the purpose would be to install a pro-Israel regime while marching on their Greater Israel project as well.

 

Possibly three things. With the US I really do believe it comes from the Christian Zionists and neo cons working with Netanyahu since the concept of the two state solution came up. A concept which the CZ's deplored as it would not make their bible come true.

With the Saud's it obviously is its competition with Iran for supposed leadership of the Muslim World made more aggravating after the prestige which ordinary Arabs felt for Hezbollah after the 2006 Israeli attack. The fact that Iran has some form of democracy is just a lot more scary to the Sauds. Another thing you could add to this is that just before the Egyptian Coup the Egyptian we had on here mentioned something about the Sauds having disclosed their intent on domination of the area and the hell that would create. I did not have time to ask him more on this before he left.

and the JCPOA appears to present a different problem than nukes which if Iran had wanted it would have had a long long time ago. You speak of Iran even during a half hearted JCPOA experiencing some top growth rates. A couple of times I have heard it mentioned that Iran is potentially an exceptionally rich country. That in itself creates a threat to the region as it is at the moment - that is with Israel and the CZ's wanting Israel to rule over all the land that it says in their bible and the Saud's very insecure about their position.

Basically it seems to be a mixture of Christian extremism running US foreign Policy and Saudi fear for the future and one could add that given the only reason the Sauds have any influence in the region is because of their oil/money. Their oil gave them influence with the US and they have used their money to try and get their brand of Islam, something which previously was abhorrent to most Muslims around the ME and with the help of Western Governments the West. It makes sense that they would not want Iran access to its money and resources and being the regional power it would be without this interference.

 

Iran should back off while simultaneously appealing to the EU, UN and US to guarantee Lebanon's security.

Do you actually believe in the Greater Israel Project? Israel would have to commit a holocaust 10 times as large as Hitler's to pull that off.

 

The notion that the Saudis want everyone in the region to be Wahhabi is utter nonsense. Most twerps running around claiming they are "Wahhabi", aren't.

 

Please. The US/Israel are on the same page when it comes to the issues in the region. This is like asking the fox to guard the chicken house! And the rest are impotent and useless. Just look at the fate of the JCPOA.

Besides, I wouldn't be honest if I didn't mention that Iran has its own interest in Lebanon which goes beyond just helping Lebanon deter Israeli aggression. Hezbollah is also part of Iran's arsenal to deter US/Israeli aggression against Iran. Not the only arsenal, but an important one.

It is not for me to believe in it, but it has its adherents in Israel. More importantly, however, an imbalance of power invites ideologies and pretexts to take over the weaker side by the stronger. Which is why balance of power is ultimately the best source for peace and security.

 

Using Lebanon to deter Israel is NOT a winning strategy. Lebanon has suffered quite enough.

 

While the Iraqi PM was a consensus choice to reflect a balance between different groups in Iraq, including ultimately groups allied to the US who oppose Iran and those allied to Iran who oppose the US, it seems that Iran has decided that propping up the Iraqi PM is better than the alternatives. Whether that is the right attitude remains to be seen?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...of-iraqi-prime-minister-sources-idUSKBN1XA2DI
Exclusive: Iran intervenes to prevent ousting of Iraqi prime minister - sources

 

Withdraw from the region. Let them sort it out themselves.

 

They sortong by killing her citizens with clore gases, wiping out whole cities, creating millions of refugees who destabilizing other regions, radicalizing the population to the level, when a ISIS step in and so one. Really, this is the best solution?

 

So what? Intervention has shown to have similar results.

Withdraw all troops and bases from the region
Withdraw from all treaties with ME nations, unilaterally

 

What is your evidence that these protests are being "steered" by the USA?
What benefit do you think will accrue from Iran controlling Syria, Lebanon and the Gulf.
What do you think of the latest nuclear threat Iran made against Israel?
How is ANY of this supposed to help the suffering people of Iran?

 

US steped in only to fight ISIS when situation already was grim and they don't actually have a choice. Action has to be taken when Assad first time used chemical weapons and when ISIS I still was underground.

 

Wot happens if you wind up with a Jihadi state?
Remember, the Fascists were nothing until they
got Italy and Germany.
And the Bosheviks were just a bunch of nutters
until they got hold of Russia.

 

Iran does not control any other country, nor does it seek to control them. It seeks to have allies, which in Iran's case facing a worldwide campaign to isolate it, is even more critical than is to anyone else.

Economically, Iran (and Iranians) cannot trade in 'chewing gum' with any country that is forced to bend to US pressures due to the sanctions against Iran, as the financial sanctions and restrictions cause banks to even refuse to handle the most ordinary transactions from anyone from Iran. Under these circumstances, the fact that Iran is the (or among the) biggest trading partner for Syria and Iraq means that there is an avenue for Iranian exporters and products to find markets despite these restrictions. It means that one of the world's largest (in each of them among the top 20 and in some among the top 5-10) steel producers, cement producers, automobile producers etc can find some market for it to compete and try to sell its products. It means Iranian consumer goods, and other products, can compete on a more or less even playing field (not even, since even Iraq has to bend to a lot of US pressures) and find customers.

On the geopolitical level, if Iraq falls under US domination, it will become a base to be used against Iran. If Syria falls outside of the axis of resistance, Iran will lose its land bridge to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Without Iran having friends and allies in the region, the plans the unravel Iran and bring to Iran what the US/Israel have brought to many other countries in the region will have greater chance to succeed.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Iran's interests in maintaining good relations with these countries. There is a lot more to it which I will forego explaining for now. But since you want to pretend to care about the "long suffering people of Iran", all you need to do is listen to them! Listen to the voices of its majority and not some isolated people here or there. You might start by reading opinion polls that try to tell you what they think. This one is part of a series of polls taken regularly by the University of Maryland. You will find what they think about a lot of things, including the role they want Iran to play in the region.
https://cissm.umd.edu/research-impact/publications/iranian-public-opinion-under-maximum-pressure
Iranian Public Opinion under
 'Maximum Pressure'

I don't know what kind of sites you read for your "news" but I really feel bad for you believing such obvious nonsense. The idea of Iran making a "nuclear threat" against Israel is absurd on its face.

But the opposite isn't. Many sites affiliated to or representing pro Israeli viewpoints regularly discuss the fact that Israel might use nuclear weapons against Iran. Here is one of them a few days ago.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/what-happens-iran-if-israel-attacked-nuclear-weapons-91166
What Happens to Iran if Israel Attacked with Nuclear Weapons?

In some cases, the same issue is raised in more cryptic language, such as when the former commander of the Israeli air force wrote this article a few days ago.
https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5608965,00.html

The bold part is euphemism for nukes. That is the only "hard lasting blow" Israel could even dream of delivering against Iran would be using nukes. And that is the thing that would be "rejected by the rest of the world".

 

If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster at Walmart.

 

Okay, then a few million more Americans will wind up fighting
and dying somewhere.
Once the Jihadis have the nuclear bomb, and a half decent
delivery system, then Christians might learn to pray, again.

And a good way to further that process is for America to get
out of Pakistani politics. If the Pakistan Taliban get hold of that
nation's nuclear missiles then we could see New Delhi, Rome
and Washington vanish in a flash. But of course, that's nothing
to do with Meddling America.