I know what I and my allies here, versus the liberal democrats here, think about what's coming in 2022. If you are a genuine and non-ideological independent, what is your sense and prediction of how the midterm elections will turn out? Will the Republicans throw out the Democrats? Why or why not?
do you know what i (a liberal democrat0 think about 2022? i think the media corporations project greater profits with more chaos and conflict. and that means more repubs in the senate, in the house, and in the state houses. maybe even enough in the state legislatures to call that constitutional convention. there will be no more biden appointed judges, ambassadors, ot cabinet posts confirmed and speaker of the house jordan will be impeaching biden and harris for "stealing the election." making him president, probably for life. no one will care that president jordan does not wear a tie in the oval office. "lets go brandon" will be the natioal chant, at least until the sheep can be taught a new bleat. a 'sleeves up for the donald ' campaign will get everyone vaccinated but america's job creators will continue to have trouble hiring employees, and working class americans will still apply for hundreds of jobs with no interviews.
Young Turds* And eh… she hasn’t faired well at all since that hideous nose job. Go look at her 10 years ago and compare her to now. Liberalism has a way of morphing women into unattractive things. Here’s a perfect before and after… After: That second picture is the epitome of a depressed and depraved liberal. LOL
As an Independent my biggest hope is for a viable third party, cause what we got are two difunctional groups of stupid, self-serving bio-tches running the country right now. My take on what is going to happen in 2022? The Republicans will take back Congress by a thin margin, but the moderates and the Trump zombies will spend so much time fighting among themselves that nothing will get done.
Don't know. Don't really care. I support anything that keeps congress from partisan legislating. It it would do that, I would support it wholeheartedly. I like gridlock in congress. The parties involved aren't that important.
What do unicorns think about 2022? It’s the same question as the OP’s. Sure. I’ve registered as an ‘Independent when possible during my lifetime but the term is as meaningless as Moderate. Then again. I wouldn’t want to be associated with any Party that would accept me as a member. Or whatever the quote associated with Marx: Groucho not Karl.
Going by historical precedent, yes. How much? Don't know. But Democrats are going to lose seats. Going by Biden's abysmal polling numbers. Again, yes. Going by the economy, high inflation that has no sign of slowing down or stopping, still have not caught up to pre-pandemic levels of employment... again, yes. Going by the issue of illegal immigration...most American's want the border secured, we have a record number of illegals entering this country in 2021. Again...yes. Going by the issue of abortion... this will depend on what SCOTUS does. So no idea either way. There are several other issues I could bring up. But frankly, over all I'd say Democrats are going to have a VERY bad election year unless things change TODAY. They cannot afford any more bad news. If they're going to keep their majority they need to start making progress in advancing America...not just their own interests. This means that they are going to have to stop focusing on Trump. They're going to have to start working WITH Republicans....and get Republicans to work with them. But frankly I do not see them stopping doing what they are doing. They're too invested in making the opposition out to be evil nazi's and terrorists.
The general trend is for the ruling party to lose their first midterm. Short of an out of the ordinary positive first year I'd expect that to hold. No matter your politics, it'd be a hard claim to make that Biden has had an out of the ordinary positive first year. So I think they will probably lose control of Congress.
Haha. With approval ratings from the mid 30's to low 40's, to label that as not being an "out of the ordinary positive first year" is like saying that a monsoon is not a drought. While technically correct, it is a bizarre attempt at spin while ignoring reality. A more succinct, straightforward way to express the same thing is to say that it is an unmitigated disaster, and while the party in power always loses seats, this one is likely to result in far more seats lost than average.
Not trying to spin anything, I can't stand Biden. In the spirit of the thread I was being as straight ahead as I can. Having an out of the ordinary positive first year is indeed the bar for winning the first midterm, I did not mean to suggest Biden has had such a year.
Why not just say since the party out of power tends to gain seats in the midterms, combined with the reality that Bidens first term has been an unmitigated disaster, I am confident that Republicans will retake the House and Senate? On top of that if you are defining "winning the first term" as who controls each chamber of the house, it is not a requirement for an "out of the ordinary positive first year" in order to maintain one or both chambers of Congress. The party in power often holds one or both chambers after the midterms, and it most certainly does not require this fictitious "out of the ordinary positive first year" that you keep speaking of as if it is gospel. Hell, Democrats held the house for something like 45 straight years before losing it during Clinton. I can assure you that not every Democrat in the White House had an "out of the ordinary positive first term during that time period". The truism is that the party in power loses seats in the midterms, it is not that the party in power necessarily loses control of either chamber of Congress.
"I refuse to join any group or organization that will stoop so low as to accept "ME" as a member" -Groucho Marx (After being kicked out of several elite clubs, that initially sought his membership, because of he and his brothers hi-jinks.) But, politics isn't a club anymore. We are in a desperate fight for Government BY the People, or having it erased from the earth.
I think Independents think stuff like this is insane. Settlement: California agrees to ditch ‘Aztec chant’ from curriculum. Dumb of them to do this, Smart of them to settle out of court. "I don’t know why Hernando Cortes isn’t a lefty hero: He organized an alliance of oppressed indigenous peoples to overthrow a tyrannical empire." So, I think Independents will help throw Democrats out, give the GOP time in the hopes that they do better, and then join with the Democrats to throw the GOP out when they have a better option.
Some numbers as of today, first on the House. 32 states have completed their redistricting process leaving 18 more to do so. There are 268 newly drawn districts. 167 districts are remaining to be redrawn. Out of the 268 newly drawn districts, there are 22 competitive, switchable districts. Currently held by 15 Democrats and 7 Republicans. Safe seats as of 17 Jan 2022, 127 Democratic, 119 Republican. Based on those incomplete numbers, we still have 18 states to redraw their districts. We then look at the generic congressional ballot where the Republicans lead by a single point, 42-41. The generic is nationwide and not district by district. Putting both together, the GOP retakes the house by a slim margin, 10-12 seat Republican net gain is the most likely. That is based on the numbers available today, which could change tomorrow. The senate, 34 seats are up for election this year. 20 held by the Republicans, 14 by Democrats. It looks like 11 of the 14 Democratic seats are safe. The 3 in play are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada. D Kelly in Arizona and D Cortez-Masto are slight favorites with Georgia, D Warnock a 50-50 proposition. On the Republican side, 16 states look safe, the 4 in play are Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are tilting Democratic, North Carolina, an open seat, Tillis is retiring, is 50-50, a dead even tossup while Florida, R Rubio is likely Republican bordering on safe using today’s numbers. Pennsylvania is an open seat which favors D Fetterman, the Lt. Governor over an unknown GOP opponent. Wisconsin, R Johnson decided to break his pledge not to run for reelection, he isn’t liked much there, making Wisconsin’s Democratic challenger, whoever that is the slim favorite. My bottom line on the senate today is the Democrats gain 2 seats and maybe a 3rd. All of which makes little sense when considering Biden’s and the democrats in congress very low approval and favorable numbers along with over 60% of the people thinking this country is headed in the wrong direction, on the wrong track, headed to Hades in a hand basket. All I can say there’s something else in play here which I can’t get my hands on or my head around it. Given Biden’s and the Democrats numbers, we should be headed for a red wave where the GOP picks up 30-40 seats in the house and regains control of the senate. Here’s some history. Presidential Overall Approval rating November of his first term in office along with House seats lost during that president’s first midterm election Biden 41% projected a 10-15 seat house loss as of 17 Jan 2022 2018 Trump 40% lost 44 seats 2010 Obama 43% lost 63 seats 2002 G.W. Bush 60% gained 8 seats 1994 Bill Clinton 41% lost 54 seats 1990 G.H.W. Bush 54% lost 8 seats 1982 Reagan 43% lost 26 seats 1978 Carter 49% lost 15 seats For presidents whose overall approval rating was below 45%, the average loss for his first midterm was 47 seats. For president’s whose overall approval rating was above 45% a 5-seat loss.
You don't even need to ask Independents. All you have to do is look at recent elections, recent polls, and the number of Democrats jumping off the Titanic instead of running for re-election. Democrats themselves have told you they expect to suffer a drubbing. The House is gone, the best Democrats can try doing is to hold onto the Senate, which even they concede ain't gonna be easy. Democrats have quit playing offense and are trying to put up the best defense they can to limit how big their losses are going to be in hopes they won't be too far behind come 2024.
