What Happened? How the Polls got Hillary's Defeat so Wrong.

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by PatriotNews, Oct 15, 2017.

  1. PatriotNews

    PatriotNews Well-Known Member

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    As much as I enjoy going through YouTube videos watching pundits declare Donald Trump has no chance of ever being president, I had to go back and look at the "data" that they all relied on to find out "What Happened?" and how come so many were so wrong for so long. What happened is that because of all the fake news which includes the fake polls that the pollsters where putting out trying to convince the public not to vote for Donald Trump and to vote for crooked Hillary Clinton, the truth about what the people really think didn't get out until late on election night. The fake news media has continued to double down on the fake news since Trump was elected which is making them all the more irrelevant.

    Where there 5 battleground states or 7? Some said 11 or 12. I picked out 18 states to look at the polls, not because they were all battleground states, although, some prognosticated that Trump could lose some of these when he obviously never was at risk of losing, as well as some that were mentioned as battleground states that Hillary was always going to win and had no business on any such list.

    The worst of the worst:

    I think that many pollsters aren't as interested in what the real results of their polls are, but have an agenda. The purpose of the poll is not to get a glimpse of the views of the electorate, but rather to change the views of the electorate by skewing the results of their polls, which gives some people who may be undecided or on the margins to consider who they should favor based on what is popular, on what the majority thinks. With that in mind, I want you to look at some of the worst polling results of 2016 in the presidential election in the 18 states I selected, plus one national poll. As you see, the pollsters were off by anywhere from 4.6% off of the final results to a whopping 22.5% in one Iowa poll! The last poll, a national poll, was off of the actual results by 12.9% and that was not the worst one I saw, but it was within the last 3/4 months before the election. Now I promise you, you will not find a single poll that was off by double digits in favor of Donald Trump in this election. The only state that didn't have a poll with Trump losing was South Carolina, but did have one with Hillary statistically tied at just 2% below Trump. 10 of the 18 have Trump losing by double digits. He didn't lose any of them by double digits, and that is the same for the National poll at the bottom.

    upload_2017-10-15_18-1-4.png


    Now let's take a look at the Real Clear Politics average of polls from 3 months before the election. These numbers are from August 8th, 2016. All but one of these polls was off in Hillary Clinton's favor. The one that was off in Donald Trump's favor by a mere one tenth of one percent was Nevada, which Hillary won by 2.4%. Six of the polls were off by 9 to 16.5% and were all battleground states won by Donald Trump.

    upload_2017-10-15_18-23-46.png


    Now let's have a look at the Real Clear Politics average of polls from the day before the election. Frankly, I don't remember them having it even this close so I wonder if they made some edits after the election. Of the 18 states the day of the election Real Clear Politics had Hillary winning 9 of them including Minnesota by 10% (she won by 1.5%), Wisconsin by 6.5%, (she lost by .7%), Michigan by 3.4% (she lost by .3%), and Pennsylvania by 1.9% (she lost by .7%). 13 of the final 18 average of polls were off in favor of Clinton from .3% to 10.1%. Only 5 favored Trump in states that really were contested much besides Nevada.



    upload_2017-10-15_18-35-35.png



    Here's how Real Clear Politics had the final prediction, which they had as a squeaker win for Hillary at 272 to 266 for Trump. They had every state correct except PA, MI, and WI:

    upload_2017-10-15_18-53-18.png
     

    Attached Files:

  2. Moi621

    Moi621 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Yes how did they get it so wrong?


    Or was it a "bandwagon effect". Conscious or unconscious. More sinister, trying to create one.
    May as well vote Hillary she's gonna win anyways.

    In California I waited until 8 PM to turn on the election returns.
    I wanted to get the pain of news of a Hillary presidency over as fast as possible.
    And what a shock, by 8 PM California Center of the Universe Time, Hillary had not won.
    How was I so programmed and how were the polls so wrong since Dewey Defeats Truman?

    Moi :oldman:
    Just because I'm a conspiracist
    doesn't mean it isn't!


    r > g



    keep-calm-and-blame-canada.png
    They meddled in our elections
    That's how.

     
  3. logical1

    logical1 Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Well when they polled 60 democrats and 40 republicans, what do you suppose you will get.
     
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  4. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Interesting reading, the left sure got it wrong this time! (all the time, really)
     
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  5. TheGreatSatan

    TheGreatSatan Banned

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    If you remember, Podesta was colluding with media outlets to produce the Hillary landslide polls. Funny thing was, they then campaigned as if the data they knew was fixed, was real. They thought Texas was in play and sent resources there.
     
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  6. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    They buy their own lies.

    That's the left.
     
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  7. xwsmithx

    xwsmithx Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure the pollsters had a lot of soul-searching to do after the election.

    What's more interesting to me is that Bill Clinton still knew how to win, even 20 years after his last victory. Reports have said that Bill urged Hillary to spend more time in the Rust Belt states, reaching out to blue-collar white workers, but Hillary and her handlers rejected that advice. And it was precisely blue-collar white workers who handed the victory to Trump, who did reach out to them.
     
  8. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It's starting to becoming a serious problem with the left always getting it wrong.
     
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  9. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The common wisdom was, the dems did not need the white working class voters to win. I read this in a New Yorker article in the spring, while sitting in the doctor's office. The author went on to say that the party of the people no longer represented the working class, and did nothing for them and only represented the upper middle class the professionals, and then could rely upon the black and hispanic vote. The author went on to say, the dems should represent the working class, white working class because no one represented them.

    And it was this white working class who beat her by voting for trump who had enough sense to go after their votes and to get them. And so the deplorables made hillary get drunk on election night and throw a cursing tantrum, and she could not even give her concession in a timely manner. Her handlers probably would not allow her to stagger out with slurred speech, blaming the russians for her loss.

    Bill Clinton knew she was screwing up in her arrogance. She will never forget those deplorables.
     
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  10. tkolter

    tkolter Well-Known Member

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    And lets face it the GOP gets out the vote in a way that matters as in getting Electors not the popular vote which means nothing if those votes are not in practice important and the Democrats just failed to vote reliably and its common the GOP would vote for their man or woman no matter what the Democrats don't have that practical loyalty to their brand. I know six people that didn't vote assuming Hillary would win and they were to busy to vote that day well if that is multiplied to much you get a loss in a candidates chance to win if these people would have voted.

    And let me be frank tossing out Deplorables and spitting on the working man and woman didn't help them they needed Ohio and other states and well that was to me a major factor and Trump for all his flaws is doing exactly what he said he would do in his platform. In short gut the ACA, build the wall if he can, go after illegal immigrants, go after social safety programs and other things like tax cuts in many areas so he is doing what he said he would do and frankly that is one thing I like about him he is keeping his word he made to the voters. If people now think he didn't mean it and are upset they voted for him on the platform its refreshing to see a politician follow through or try to with such dedication for once.
     
  11. webrockk

    webrockk Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The commies tried to Push-Poll their Queen into the White House and it backfired. spectacularly.

    couldn't happen to a nicer bunch.
     
  12. doombug

    doombug Well-Known Member

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    The polls were wrong because the media was trying to influence the election. They knew Trump was ahead and tried to give Hillary a boost by these fake polls. Blew up in their miserable faces! Hahaha!
     
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  13. xwsmithx

    xwsmithx Well-Known Member

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    Now they're not talking to each other after Bill marked up her draft of What Happened and she wouldn't change anything, so he threw the marked up copy in the trash. I have little respect for Bill Clinton, but he clearly knows how to talk to people and she's as tone deaf as a rap artist at a folk music festival.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4965858/Bill-Hillary-Clinton-haven-t-spoken-months.html
     
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  14. Renee

    Renee Well-Known Member

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    It must be true you saw it in the internet....I read that trump is gay..must be true, I saw it on the internet
     
  15. xwsmithx

    xwsmithx Well-Known Member

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    It's most likely true because it fits what we know of their characters. Trump being homosexual wouldn't fit what we know of his character, so it's not likely to be true.
     
  16. One Mind

    One Mind Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    It has always been my belief that Bill was a great politician, while hillary rode his coat tails, but when she has to stand alone, she fails. Obama beat her as did Trump. And yet she seemed to think she was owed the presidency and that has been her attitude. She thought her gender would put her in the oval office, and she believed the dems when they told her she did not need this deplorable vote. She should have seen enough americans were fed up with gov't, with allowing our economy to be hollowed out, turning america into a low wage, part time job service sector economy and yet living in the bubble the dems live in, she was clueless, even attacking these people who were fed up. Bill understood it, but she and her minions knew best. And so Trump, with a populist message kicked her arse. I called the election for trump because I was paying attention to the fact enough people demanded change, as they did when obama won the first time. And yet if trump keeps flip flopping on what put him into the oval office, and you get a democrat with character, driven by a vision to once again represent the working middle class, like sanders(which will be almost impossible) you could see trump serving only one term. It just depends on whether he turns the white house over to the open borders globalists, who have controlled the oval office since Bush Sr. Which means the wall street banks have controlled economic policy since Bush Sr. And the banking cabal owe no allegiance to america, and only see dollar signs as their guiding light. Our banking system no longer serves anyone but the few, and books have been written about this, which no one seems to read. If you control the money supply, as one big bankers reportedly said, you do not need to run the gov't. And the control and power of deregulated banking kicked corporations out of the number one position in affecting and influencing law and policy. Even the big corporations fear this cabal, given the power they have achieved, by deregulating themselves, which is what happened. Who do you think oversaw deregs? LOL When you have the power to deregulation yourselves, you can predict what will happen.
     
  17. KAMALAYKA

    KAMALAYKA Banned

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    Well, the polls accurately predicted the winner of the populat vote.

    :)
     
  18. TrackerSam

    TrackerSam Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The MSM is clearly progressive. By all declaring Trump couldn't win, I think they were trying to suppress the Republican vote, by telling us not to bother 'cause it would be a waste of our time.
    They did the same thing to Bernie. You could feel momentum building for him when he'd win a state, only to be knocked down by the MSM trumpeting Hillary's super delegate totals.
     
  19. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not the first example of this. Hillary threw Bills phone off a rooftop once in regards to election strategy, iirc.

    She also hit Bill in the white house.

    If Bill had been able to influence Hillary more-she might have won.

    But she's far too brilliant for that you see.
     
  20. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    She was coddled by the media. Given questions in advance. Painted in the best light possible instead of the worst. And her (republican) competitors were not.

    By the time the general election rolled around, Trump beat her like a baby seal.
     
  21. US Conservative

    US Conservative Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    True, its the echo chamber.

    And "polls" were intended to influence views, not accurately report them.

    They tried to gaslight the nation, it didn't work.
     
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  22. Bridget

    Bridget Well-Known Member

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    The left insulted all conservatives until we shut up, as they wanted. Trouble was, they thought we had been convinced. But no, we just shut up.

    Also the media was not Hilary's friend. They used a strategy (that incidentally often works) of saying a candidate is for sure going to win and lots of undecideds will vote for that candidate because they don't want to be on the losing side. This time, it failed. Also, when you tell everyone your candidate already has won, people don't go to the polls.
     
  23. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    Good points.

    And to the RW Echo Chamber (still exhibiting terminal Clinton Derangement Syndrome):

    Hillary lost.

    We get it.

    That was almost a year ago.

    Time to move on.:salute:
     
  24. xwsmithx

    xwsmithx Well-Known Member

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    Tsk, tsk, tsk. Hillary eats baby seals for breakfast, don't make her seem like one.

    (No, lefties, I don't really believe that, it's called humor.)
     
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  25. Natty Bumpo

    Natty Bumpo Well-Known Member

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    Clinton's large lead dissipated, rapidly in the last few day before the election, of course.

    She carried the popular vote by 2.1%, and the last cumulative projection had shown her down to a 3.2% margin.

    That 1.1% error was more accurate than in 2012.

    Michael Moore was was one of the very few to confidently predict a Trump victory that was not faith-based:

    “Donald J. Trump is going to win in November. This wretched, ignorant, dangerous
    part-time clown and full time sociopath is going to be our next president.”

    With 60% disapproving of Trump's antics as president, and only 35% approving, Moore certainly doesn't need to say, "I told you so!"

    Most
    folks get it now, Michael!


    [​IMG]

    Meanwhile, the frustrated Trumpers need to seek solace in the past.
     
    Last edited: Oct 20, 2017

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