What To Do About The Long-Term Implications of Automation

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Meta777, Oct 22, 2017.

  1. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    We generally like for people to take personal responsibility for themselves. Reason being, because if everything were to be provided for them, there'd be no motivation for them to improve or contribute. And without such a profit motive, we could end up in a scenario where things don't get done that need to get done because no one is motivated to do them and instead expects that others will step up to do them instead. A consequence of Diffusion of responsibility. And if everyone thinks and acts in that same way, its easy to see how that can lead to problems. On the other hand, it isn't as much of an issue in cases where there isn't actually anything that needs to be done, say as what might happen if we were to reach 100% automation...but as long as people have needs and wants that aren't being met, we are going to want to at least maintain some level of personal responsibility and profit motive and we shouldn't do things which remove it completely.

    But I'm curious though, how would you have the government facilitate the ability of citizens to provide for their own basic needs and wants,
    without completely removing the motivation for said citizens to work/contribute in the process?

    Agreed.

    -Meta
     
  2. Troianii

    Troianii Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 7, 2012
    Messages:
    13,464
    Likes Received:
    427
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Replying by phone so numbering so it's clear what I'm responding to. Bear that in mind as there will inevitably be low quality autocorrect. Numbers first correspond to your bullets, and then to block paragraphs thereafter.

    But first, speaking generally: my point is thay we do not need government programs to adjust to such future changes. Such programs are likely to cause more harm than good.

    1. Those are things which happen on the state, and much moreso the local level, and even then are responsive to urbanization. These are not examples of planning. A full time police force, for example, was economically beneficial in a developing city, but not in a pre-industrial village. This seems to me entirely separate from the discussion we're having - if you'e trying to suggest it as an example of planning, it's clearly responsive. If you mean to use it for another purpose,please say so bluntly - I'm not sure of its relevance otherwise.
    2. Most such infrastructure development that you mention was actually done privately. There are notable exceptions, like the Erie Canal, but they are the exception. What federal investment occurred was NOT for production concerns, but out of military concerns. The most well known was Eisenhower's highway development, intended to facilitate rapid military deployment. A less known earlier corollary was following the War of 1812, where the federal government invested in infrastructure development because the military had issues moving men and supplies during the war.
    3. There were anti trust laws, but even those were phoney baloney. They did things like break up Standard Oil, a company so damned efficient thay it's competitors could not compete (it was responsible for oil prices falling 80% in less than 3 decades - idk why we want to stop such companies from providing a better product at a better price).
    4. Again, this is something of an accident or coincidence. Public schooling was not a response to industrialization - that's just blatantly false. Public education was the norm before urbanization. But tell me, where were there factory owners demanding better educated workers? During the industrial revolution? There weren't. Henry Ford was famous for his "five minute" workers - he said he could teach hires off the street how to do the job in five minutes. His assembly line actually lowered the amount that workers needed to know - and it wasn't much before either. Factory workers certainly didn't need to know Shakespeare.
    5. No. That's not what the Federal Reserve does.
    6. No. This is a common misunderstanding of labor history. The unions are largely given credit for making law what organic processes already made fact.
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...TBtoQFggyMAU&usg=AOvVaw2HP1qkytDaZhWl8uQ7OiDz
    7. Those are certainly examples of government intervention - which made conditions worse...

    8. The examples you mentioned were either in fact accidental - meaning the *intention* you ascribe was not there - or they were abject failures that made things worse.

    We don't need to wait for things to go south - by taking steps lile the new deal to KEEP them going south. Market influences work - let them work themselves out. The ONLY thing I can see that would significantly help is to restructure K-12 to teach kids about their options. Today, and when I was in K-12, students were taught that if you want to be successful go to college. We were taught that if you're more educated you'l get paid more. Sure, the brighter of us knew enough to look into it and see that degree type matters, but it' such a simple thing that so many students are obvious to. So many are ignorant of the fact that degree matters to earning potential. And so many more don' think that they can be highly successful without a college degree. There are many highly rewarding fields without degrees, and students are shooed away from them. THAT needs to stop.

    It's not a need for ang new public program, just to end the bs currently done with public programs.
    9. It's creative destruction. Its a well accepted economic concept. I guess it' POSSIBLE that this time it will be different from every time before but.... I'd throw my lot in with all of observed history. Can you find me an example of when creative destruction didn't work?
    Creative destruction is the term for a reason - "destruction" looks bad in the short term. The assembly line, as I said, put many people out of work. Every. Single. Thing. That dramatically reformed production efficiencies has done that. And every. Single. Thing. That has done that, has resulted in improved quality of life.
    Go ahead. Sit and watch. People will lament it in the short term, but the lives of everyday people will be improved by such automation. Dramatically.
    10. "Share or income" doesn't mean diddly. That graph feeds into jealous class warfare bs. What does it matter if your neighbor is improving his lot faster than you? Think about it - using the measure of that graph, if the purchasing power of the middle class over a given period DOUBLES, but the purchasing power of the top quintile increases tenfold, by that graphs measurement it looks bad - but the reality would be that everyone's lot has significantly improved. This emphasis on comparative economic standing is senseless. If in ten years the middle class is doing far better (relative comparisons aside), what is the point in complaining about the top quintile doing even better?

    It's senseless class warfare nonsense.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2017
  3. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    The past is not a good choice for our future.

    How true. Someone needs to print that on a coffee mug!
    Though we of course should look to the past to learn from it.
    Those who don't learn from the past.....I think that one's already on a mug.

    All platitudes aside though, we really should aspire to do and be better than what came before.

    -Meta
     
  4. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think that idea has merit. How can we encourage the creation of such companies?

    -Meta
     
  5. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Well immigration reform is certainly one idea that has been suggested:
    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...cations-of-automation.517121/#post-1068163031

    What are your thoughts on some of the other ideas in that list?
    Any that jump out to you?

    -Meta
     
  6. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2013
    Messages:
    38,026
    Likes Received:
    16,042
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    The biggest threat to mankind isn't Al Qaeda, Obama's "JV Team" or the Taliban in Afghanistan or the American Taliban who takes down war memorial statues and try to erase America's history.

    The biggest threat in the world is Google, Face Book, Amazon, Apple, Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs, Soros and the DNC.

    You millennials out there, don't get into the trucking industry, you'll soon find yourself on welfare sitting on your front porch being a porch monkey.

     
  7. tharock220

    tharock220 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2016
    Messages:
    2,816
    Likes Received:
    1,612
    Trophy Points:
    113
    This technology thing is crazy. It's a good thing nobody was coming up with new ideas hundreds or thousands of years ago. I mean what if we suddenly developed a way to cultivate our own food. What would all the hunters and foragers do for work?
     
    BleedingHeadKen likes this.
  8. Fenton Lum

    Fenton Lum Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    6,127
    Likes Received:
    1,398
    Trophy Points:
    113
    My guess is this will be yet another societal problem the substantial people will once again deny and avoid while leveraging the power of the state to put down any protest by the people thereof. The power structure knows full well this issue is on the horizon and like many others they are hoping they can hold the public at bay if not in denial. Thus far we’ve given them no reason not to assume they will be able to in america.

    The corporate state power structure and its con men/women cannot even admit that the jobs are not coming back and that the economic system is rigged to extract and concentrate societal wealth, they sure won’t admit this is coming.

    The power structure knows full well it has lost all semblance of legitimacy and of the backlash brewing, and automation will feed into everything else that is over time making it more and more difficult to exist in this society for the masses as a whole. Again, see Bacon’s Rebellion, the unsubstantial people must be kept quibbling amongst themselves.

    So what to do with a population that was indoctrinated to work, and indoctrinated to work for the preferential benefit of others relative to him/herself in return for a check-to-check existence in return? What to do with a population indoctrinated to worship wealth and aristocracy as the “job creator” class when the jobs are no more, when there is no work, or not enough for everyone in society? What to do when capital, which has never wanted to employ people or “create” jobs, but only did so out of anguished necessity to turn a profit, no longer has to, to turn a profit?

    Well that’s why your police departments have been militarized. That’s why american citizens no longer have a guarantee of Habeus corpus. That’s why the public is being systematically desensitized to the murdering of fellow unarmed citizens in the streets of america by the power of the state. That’s why corporate for profit prisons and convict labor leasing are a growth industry with stocks traded on Wall Street where the system can turn $40-50K per year per hominid on incarcerated bodies, and private prison corporate lobbying efforts render more brutal and lengthy sentencing along with increased criminalized behavioral legislation.

    So a, don’t forget to get out there and “vote”.
     
    Meta777 likes this.
  9. Mac-7

    Mac-7 Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2011
    Messages:
    86,664
    Likes Received:
    17,636
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I dont know

    My idea of a better society would begin with less government involved in society which does not seem to be where you are headed

    And I dont want to move on from immigration so quickly

    Everyone who seriously believes robots will replace most workers in Ameica should be against allowing more unskilled people to immigrate here
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2017
  10. Fenton Lum

    Fenton Lum Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    6,127
    Likes Received:
    1,398
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Less government. Sounds great. So, you have too much now? Who are they serving the interests of?
     
    Meta777 likes this.
  11. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Surely automation/technology advancement will continue to replace jobs requiring less education and add jobs requiring more education and training.

    That's what happened as we moved from an agricultural base to a manufacturing base, and it has continued in that direction.

    I don't see how we will be competitive as individuals (with sufficient numbers holding good paying jobs, paying taxes, being capable of adapting in the accelerating pace of change, etc) or as a nation (competing with other nations) if we ignore that.

    And, today we are pretty much ignoring that.
     
    Fenton Lum likes this.
  12. Fenton Lum

    Fenton Lum Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2017
    Messages:
    6,127
    Likes Received:
    1,398
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I don't see how we'll be competative as a nation.
     
  13. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I know you weren't addressing these questions to me, but...

    1. Well yeah. You can't get much more affordable than free. And beyond that, the data does indeed suggest that higher percentages of citizens have been receiving an education over the years...
    [​IMG]
    2. Why might people not choose to be educated? There are two reasons I can think of.
    a) Short-Term Thinking, or
    b) As @WillReadmore was saying, for some poorer citizens
    the risk/cost to success/reward ratio is too great.​

    -Meta
     
  14. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah, that's the problem. But again, what in your view is the solution??
    How can we ensure that government is never unable to correct such an issue,
    and what exactly is it that you think we should have government to do for that correction?
    Its not as if we can tell government to just round up all the automation and destroy it....right?
    No, that would be silly. So then.....what other options are there? You have something in mind, right?

    -Meta
     
  15. xwsmithx

    xwsmithx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2016
    Messages:
    3,964
    Likes Received:
    1,743
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    You may have answered your own question right here without realizing it... People's needs and wants are a bottomless well. If automation provided everything currently invented to everyone at a nominal price, thousands (millions?) of inventors out there would be busy at work creating new things for people to want, and at least initially, there would be no automation of the creation of those new things.
     
  16. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Yeah that's sort of what I was getting at.
    Although I assume that folks who work for free or pay others for the opportunity to work today,
    typically do so as a means of improving their skills so that they could get paid big bucks latter on.
    A smart move for sure. But in the future, it would be good if those big bucks weren't really needed,
    and people only really ever did that sort of thing for fun or fulfillment. We are quite far off from that though....

    -Meta
     
  17. FreshAir

    FreshAir Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2012
    Messages:
    150,178
    Likes Received:
    62,816
    Trophy Points:
    113
    same way we keep people from driving too fast\recklessly, with laws that prevent it, but we may have gone past the point of no return already

    what will have to happen if we outsource too many jobs and import too many goods is we will have to switch to a socialist society, is that what we want?

    if we do not want that, we have to make sure we keep jobs here in the USA, give the working class the ability to support themselves with honest 40 hour a week jobs

    even Rome fell, can we be different, time will tell

    globalization is coming, not sure we can stop it, and global corps want 3rd world wages, are we willing to compete with 3rd world wages and life styles?

    I do not have all the answers, but I agree with Trump, America first, and that means taxing the rich and taking imports and taking corps that outsource our jobs - if the rich take too much out of society without giving back, tax em and put it back into society that way

    Trump said money is just a score card to him, to the other 90%, it's much more then that, it puts food on the table
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2017
  18. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Heh, I'm getting my gun out. Lol, jk.
    But seriously, I still don't quite understand exactly what you're trying to say here...
    You seem to suggest that employees don't want to do anything about automation, because they'd rather keep their current jobs.
    But like I was saying...whether or not their jobs become automated isn't their choice to make.
    Agreed?

    -Meta
     
  19. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I agree with you for the most part. Except that I do not believe that government will intervene unless it is made to intervene by we the voters.

    -Meta
     
  20. scarlet witch

    scarlet witch Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2016
    Messages:
    11,951
    Likes Received:
    7,714
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Female
    Yes unfortunately you could be right, government don't always act if it's not going to get them re-elected, however as long as automated robots don't vote, workers will push for compensation (could be in the form of training) and politicians will be forced to intervene... which makes Saudi Arabia style AI citizenship a little concerning :D
     
    Derideo_Te likes this.
  21. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I think that's a point that hasn't been brought up yet.
    But its true. When automation starts causing more people to lose their jobs,
    it wont just be the people who's jobs are automated who wind up unemployed.
    Have you thought about any ways for how we might avoid such a vicious death spiral?

    -Meta
     
  22. WillReadmore

    WillReadmore Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2013
    Messages:
    59,467
    Likes Received:
    16,351
    Trophy Points:
    113
    1) High school is free. However, high school is not enough even today.

    Those limiting themselves to HS are going to be way behind the curve as efucation vrequirements gor good jobs increases and job creation and destruction continues to accelerate. For example, t used to be possible to ride out a career in manufacturing. Now, a national political issue is what to do with these people who were simply left behind.

    We can not afford for that problem, which HS-only promotes.


    2) i agree with a & b (lol)

    Current political fervor is overriding education in science. Like the space race promoted college, the subborning of science to preconceived political and religious absolutes can not help but reduce interest in higher education. Actions do speak. And, the current national direction is to ignore educated thought in public policy decision making.

    The current tax plan raises the cost of college and reduces support for k-12.
     
  23. Meta777

    Meta777 Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 15, 2011
    Messages:
    15,617
    Likes Received:
    1,730
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Did you read the thread before posting?
    The answer to your question was explained in the OP.
    http://www.politicalforum.com/index...-long-term-implications-of-automation.517121/

    -Meta
     
  24. tharock220

    tharock220 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2016
    Messages:
    2,816
    Likes Received:
    1,612
    Trophy Points:
    113
    I did read it. We can try to make a distinction because we have the advantage of being able to look back, but I suspect nobody knew what changes would happen during the industrial revolution. They happened, and we adapted. People just think because something's happening while they're alive, it's somehow special.
     
  25. APACHERAT

    APACHERAT Well-Known Member Past Donor

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2013
    Messages:
    38,026
    Likes Received:
    16,042
    Trophy Points:
    113
    Gender:
    Male
    High school is not free...I pay for it.

    In California most high schools in the hood and barrios are nothing more than day care centers that I pay for.
     

Share This Page