When will man be able to survive, long term? AFFORDABLE?

Discussion in 'Political Opinions & Beliefs' started by Guyzilla, Apr 19, 2018.

  1. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    That's right, people don't think far at all. You just have to look at this thread, many posters basically thinking that the OP is a nut job, just because he dares to point out that infinite exponential growth in a finite system is not sustainable.

    The analogy of the Easter Islanders using up the trees at a far faster rate than they could grow back, resulting in deforestation, applies directly to us using fossil fuels, which do not regenerate at all at the time scale of our use. When we become aware of what we have done to ourselves by the time it becomes clear to everyone that the fossil fuel supply is finite, it may be too late. I may be wrong, but can mankind take the risk to be wrong with such an important issue?

    My philosophy is to diversify. Why put all eggs into the fossil fuel basket, when one could also use renewables? And 1% energy production from solar is not diversifying, that's just window dressing.
     
  2. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    The 2nd law of thermodynamics makes sure, however, that eventually all energy becomes dispersed and not useful for doing work anymore. The magic of entropy..
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2018
  3. spiritgide

    spiritgide Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    You do realize that the planet itself does not have an infinite life, and that the chances of running out of fuel/energy sources is probably smaller than the chance we will exterminate ourselves on purpose?

    One of the fuel sources being worked on that has huge potential is water. It is after all, a super clean flammable gas (hydrogen) and oxygen- the two cleanest fuel requirements you could ask for. To become fuel the two elements have to be separated and then combined as gasses in a different ratio. We know how to do this now, (fuel cell) but not efficiently enough to make it practical for widespread uses. If technology comes up with an answer for a better way or an alternative process to electrolysis, the entire ocean is a clean, non polluting fuel source.

    40 years ago we didn't have cell phones. 100 years ago, phones period were a luxury. 150 years ago, we didn't have phones period. Today, your portable phone is tiny, it's a camera, an internet tool and god knows what else. A few years back, electric cars were a joke, but soon, they will dominate. So what are the chances that we will develop a more efficient way to convert water into fuel- do what we already know how to do, but more efficiently? By the way, the by-product produced using hydrogen fuels.... is water.
     
  4. Thought Criminal

    Thought Criminal Well-Known Member Donor

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    What people seem to ignore is that we have a lot of capacity that could be ramped up fairly quickly. Especially in the area of efficiency. $6.00 gas really motivates people to drive less and use smaller cars. Extra insulation is easy to add.

    Wind power capacity can be built-up. We've got the technology handled there.

    I don't think we're there yet with mass-distribution of solar power. I like passive solar heat for new construction and roof panels for air-conditioning in the summer.

    Additionally, I believe that all fleet vehicles, that only fuel at their facilities, should be running on natural gas. Those would be all city vehicles, grocery store delivery trucks, and major company package delivery trucks and vans, maybe even trains.

    The elephant in the room, of course, is nuclear (or nuquler, if you're certain Republican Presidents). That has to stop being a dirty word.
     
  5. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    You do realize that splitting water requires energy? That energy has to come from somewhere, be it solar power, nuclear power, wind etc. I just find the trust in the technological progress to fix all of our problems misguided. The transition away from gas, coal and oil will be nothing like what happened in previous energy transitions. For the first time in human history we will have to transition from a high energy density, high quality energy source, to lower energy density sources. This is a huge undertaking and most people think it will happen naturally. It won't. Something has to give, for example energy consumption. of course, people are VERY opposed to life style changes that would reduce their energy footprint. One just has to read this forum for evidence.
     
  6. Quantum Nerd

    Quantum Nerd Well-Known Member

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    It took 30 years for solar to be 1-2% of the total US energy production. It took Germany decades of incentives and subsidies to be now at the point where there are days where all electricity is produced by renewables. How can one think that the US can do it quickly, when even the will is not there and we seem to be sliding back into the coal age?

    As to nuclear, look up how much the cleanup effort in Fukushima costs. That should deter anyone from thinking that nuclear will be a cost-effective alternative.
     
  7. spiritgide

    spiritgide Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    If you can't think of technology gains as the primary and probable source of progress, then we might as well shut the store, because we don't have anything that will do what you want except living in the woods.

    Right now, it takes too much electricity to perform that electrolysis. However there are many system using fuel cells right now to inject hydrogen into diesel trucks, which substantially increases their mileage and reduces pollution and engine wear. For that application, it has become viable. We don't know what the eventual process will be, we know it won't be what we are doing now. Indeed we may discover a way to do it with no electricity at all- that is the potential of technology; we never know just how much is possible.

    Anything you do in terms of lifestyles in going to be highly objected to, hard to sell, and at best- a patch to gain a small addition in time. Surely you know that today cars get 25 mpg where 30 years ago they got half that? Progress is happening. Life is a short clock compared to geological time and people have a hard time relating, but the answer doesn't have to be discovered next year to keep us all from going extinct.
     
  8. Thought Criminal

    Thought Criminal Well-Known Member Donor

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    I left out another energy source. Ideally, to me, we would also build more dams. Both for power and for water storage. Water supply is also a problem area.

    30 years is not a long time. It's not like we'll wake up one day and the oil spigot will be dry.

    We wouldn't have to build any nuclear plants where they would be vulnerable to big waves.

    -------------------------------------------------------

    But really, our only hope for a sustainable world is for the third-worlders to stop multiplying.
     
    Last edited: Apr 20, 2018
  9. Steady Pie

    Steady Pie Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    Not all shortages are alike. The world is a rather big place, and oil isn't running out anytime soon. As oil becomes more expensive it becomes profitable to use innovative methods like fracking.

    Of course, no matter what the government does we'll transition toward electric cars and renewable energy, it's just a question of how quickly you want this to happen, and whether or not you want to ruin life for the enthusiasts.
     

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