Why 'Deaths of Despair' May Be a Warning Sign for America

Discussion in 'Economics & Trade' started by kazenatsu, May 3, 2018.

  1. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    Some related threads on this topic:
    Pain in Middle America
    Difficult Job Market for the Young
    the REAL suicide rate: 1 out of 50
    Rising number of overdoses amid dim job prospects for Millenials
    Millennials say no to kids, population 'replacement level' turns negative


    Do you know what my opinion on this is? It's probably not quite as bad as it currently sounds.
    Being able to assess what's actually happening in the economy, if I can draw an analogy, is a little bit like looking out at space through a telescope at a distant star. What you're actually seeing in that telescope is what happened two years ago. It takes time for the light coming from that distant star to reach you. Looking through a telescope is like looking back in time.

    By the same token, when all of this first started happening, most people were not aware, or did not seem to notice. I think the problems started showing up as early as 2005. Even in 2009 there didn't seem to be much public awareness of the personal toll that had been inflicted on many people. There were some people who tried to raise the alarm, but it mostly went unnoticed. Now, by the year 2018 the public is just beginning to piece together the full magnitude of what happened. Things have improved a little bit from what they were a few years ago. But it will likely take another year or two to be able to assess what the current situation is right now. What did happen, however, is likely to have far reaching implications for the next couple of decades, including on demographics.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  2. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  3. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    One part of why the public did not hear much about this may have been a reluctance by the media to cover it during Obama's 8-year tenure in office.
    There's a complicated interplay between the media, what the perspectives & motivations are of the different social/political factions behind that media, and what the public hears about.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  4. james M

    james M Well-Known Member

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    liberals attacked our families schools religion and businesses and caused this problem. The solution is to end the liberal policies and make America great again.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  5. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    immigration and trade policies may have had a bit to do with it

    and then there's government deficit spending and Federal Reserve policy decisions that may have contributed to the formation of a bubble in the economy

    to some extent, the formation of economies entering bubbles is a natural phenomena, but there can be additional outside factors that exacerbate and magnify it, things that short-term inject fuel into the economy but are not sustainable in the longer-term

    I think all of the things I just listed would fit into that category.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  6. james M

    james M Well-Known Member

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    30 million illegals had a bit to do with it?????????
    the highest corporate taxes in the world that drove our corporations and jobs off shore had a bit to do with it???
    Nuts!!!
     
  7. james M

    james M Well-Known Member

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    may have?? a bubble will lead to joy not despair. Your ego is far ahead of your knowledge about economics
     
  8. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    Until it pops.

    It's not a good idea to do something that will prompt participants in the economy to spend more money than is sustainable.

    Some people call that the economy "overheating".

    A bubble is when people keep spending money now because they wrongly believe that money will keep flowing in the future. It happens in construction all the time. Construction is really good and people are making a lot of money, so they start taking on big loans, maybe buy a big house. That throws more money into the construction business, so it's like a circle. When that circle unwinds, you have a problem, because all these houses were built with debt, and the people who own these big houses are now unemployed.

    Maybe just a little bit comparable to a pyramid scheme. The problem is the ones paying for this construction are the same ones making money from it, but all these people taking part don't really realize this fact. The self-reinforcing circle of money creates a boom that's not really sustainable. Everybody is assuming there will always be someone else to keep buying those houses.

    That's just a little quick tutorial about how bubbles work.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  9. Robert

    Robert Well-Known Member Donor

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    It does not apply to all states so I would look at those impacted states to find out what is different.
     
  10. james M

    james M Well-Known Member

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    your op is about despair now!! No popping now!!!!!
     
  11. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    Another interesting thing to point out is those states in the Mountain West that have the highest suicide rates traditionally used to be mining states, and manufacturing states in the Midwest. The states in the middle of the country that were traditionally farming states don't seem to have those high suicide rates.
    Might have to do with something structural in the economy. Although farming has become all corporatized today, a couple of generations ago these West and Midwest farming states were primarily composed of family farms and had a more middle class distribution of income, so that could be having some carryover effect in the structure of their economies even today. 130 years ago the farm states in the West tended to have different political priorities than the mining & manufacturing states, which tended to be run by large corporations. That's actually why the shape of Idaho has an appendage that goes all the way up to Canada, because it was mountainous, and the government in the state of Washington at the time didn't want miners in their state.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
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  12. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Nothing to do with the economy. Everything to do with a decaying social culture. Lax parenting, divorce, drugs and alcohol, sexualised youth, etc etc.
     
  13. crank

    crank Well-Known Member

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    Sorry, but anyone who insists on staying in a town they can't afford is an idiot. Just as those with money are moving into places like Santa Fe, so those with no money should be moving out.

    I live in a 'resort town' myself, and the same thing happened here. 60 years ago it was cheap, and those without good incomes moved to the area. When tourism kicked in, prices started going up. And up. And up. People with money started moving in, and working class people moved out. I also own a property in region where this is JUST starting to happen. A traditionally very poor town, which just happens to be in a scenically beautiful location, and has great infrastructure and facilities etc. Also has a huge stock of unmolested Victorian and early 20thC houses - exactly the kinds of properties favoured by the rich. Anyway, in the past 5 years, a slow creep has happened ... with house prices literally doubling in the past 3 years. As more and more of these old houses are restored, and more and more moneyed hipsters move in and open hip cafes and vintage homewares stores, the less the original inhabitants can afford to stay. Welfare recipients (and there were always many) are increasingly unable to cover rent, and are gradually being pushed out to more remote locations. From my point of view, this is fantastic - obviously.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2018
  14. jmblt2000

    jmblt2000 Well-Known Member

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    It's still survival of the fittest, it's just now more of mental toughness. High school kids committing suicide because they can't take bullying...we were taught to take it out behind the barn and settle it.
    College kids (supposedly young adults) needing their safe spaces.
    Heck, they even have commercials for texting a therapist for $50 a week.
    Life is a competition. Not everyone wins, usually the best employee gets the promotion, not because of their race or gender.
    The ublic school system with their everyone wins, does not prepare kids for life as an adult.
     
  15. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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  16. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    Here you can visualize the "suicide belt":
    [​IMG]
     
  17. james M

    james M Well-Known Member

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    yes liberal schools don't help, liberal policies that shipped 20 million jobs to China did not help, 30 million liberal illegals did not help, liberal welfare programs that kicked men out didn't help, feminsim that hated men did not help, and liberal hated for religion did not help, and liberal broken families did not help.
     
    Last edited: Jun 27, 2018
  18. kazenatsu

    kazenatsu Well-Known Member Donor

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    I've been looking at the connection between recessions and the suicide rate historically and this is what I've found: During the Great Depression the rate increased by about 50% in the U.S.; during the Recession of 2007 the rate increased by about 25% above the baseline average.

    [​IMG]

    However, the real increase in the suicide rate may be even higher, if we count overdose deaths:

    [​IMG]

    Among the younger generation, the death from overdose rate is 9 times higher than the official suicide rate. That means if even a fraction of these overdoses were actually suicides (hard to tell in any particular case) the real suicide rate could be a lot higher than the official one.

    (Although making things more complicated, the line between intentional and unintentional deaths from drug overdose can often be a blurry one; when individuals or drug users place less value on their lives they are more likely to take greater risk with little regard to their own life, sort of half-wanting to die)
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2018
  19. james M

    james M Well-Known Member

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    Does that mean you want to and the liberal policies that causes depressions and recessions?
     
  20. jay runner

    jay runner Well-Known Member

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    You got to be born with the will to live deep down in your bones or you don't have a chance in this world, not anywhere in this world.
     
    Last edited: Jun 28, 2018

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