Will the Republicans win the Senate in 2018?

Discussion in 'Elections & Campaigns' started by marty_mcfly, Mar 25, 2018.

  1. marty_mcfly

    marty_mcfly Member

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    I think it's possible that the Republicans will win Congress again in 2018. I'm left-leaning, but I'm also living in the real world here. It seems to me like most of the Senate seats which are up for grabs right now, are currently held by Democrats. The ones held by Republicans are already in states where it's virtually impossible for Democrats to win. The Democrats stand only a very slight chance at winning 4 of them (two in Mississippi, one in Tennessee and one in Texas). Maybe the southern African-American or Hispanic population will turn out to make a difference in a manner similar to the Alabama special election in which Roy Moore was defeated. But I can't imagine a similar situation happening in states like Utah, Nebraska and Wyoming.

    Then there are some Democratic seats which are currently up for grabs and a lot of them are in states which voted for Trump (including a lot of swing states). For example, Montana, North Dakota, Indiana, Florida, West Virginia, etc. This means that there is a greater potential for Democrats to lose more seats (when they're already the minority) than to gain additional ones. It's a long shot for Democrats to take back the Senate, but then again, Trump's victory was a long shot. What are your thoughts?
     
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  2. Greenleft

    Greenleft Well-Known Member

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    While I do not believe there will be a large swing in the partisan vote toward to Republicans, because of the seats up for grabs in the Senate, it is most likely that the Republicans will hold the senate. But neither will there be a net gain of more than 2-4 seats for the Republicans. The current overall partisan divide in the Senate will remain the same. The House of Representatives is a more difficult call to make at the point of this post.

    I can make a list of predictions for the house:

    1. There is a swing towards the Democrats and they take control of the House due to the disapproval ratings of the Republican congress and the President (whom I will not name).

    2. There is a swing toward the Democrats, but due to the number of seats Republicans currently hold combined with gerrymandering, the Republicans narrowly hold the House.

    3. There is a swing towards the Republicans and they gain an even stronger majority due to a strong economy (if it holds up until November).

    I cannot make a firm prediction at this point, but I will at about a week before the election.
     
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  3. Russell Hellein

    Russell Hellein Well-Known Member

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    The only question is how many additional seats they will win in the Senate
     
    Last edited: Mar 25, 2018
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  4. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    If the Dems keep the Senate right where it is now, that will be a victory for the Dems.

    As long as the Dems avoid a Net Loss of seats.

    House control is much more important for the Dems (in order to hold Congressional Hearings and, possibly, move toward Articles of Impeachment).
     
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  5. Jestsayin

    Jestsayin Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The dems are amusing. They cling to their rantings and impeachment dreams, all of which would give them their worst nightmare ever in the WH.
     
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  6. PopulistMadison

    PopulistMadison Active Member

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    Don't you wish you could sleep till November 10 and wake up to see who won, to avoid the suspense, and do that for all elections?
     
  7. PopulistMadison

    PopulistMadison Active Member

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    The Senate does not have to convict. The house can just charge him and his cabinet members several times, sending the vote to the Senate, scaring his cabinet into compromising.
     
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  8. btthegreat

    btthegreat Well-Known Member

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    How about you let us Dems tell you what we are most scared of. You don't have a clue.
     
  9. marty_mcfly

    marty_mcfly Member

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    I actually like the idea of that. Let's just hope that the Democrats win the House of Representatives so that can have a remote chance of happening.
     
  10. Crawdadr

    Crawdadr Well-Known Member

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    I think the Republicans will hold on but just barely. They will lose a couple of seats but keep the majority. Just an opinion of course, living in Kansas our options are only "what republican will you choose?"
     
  11. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Hmm. How many votes does it take to remove the PotUS after impeachment?
     
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  12. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    It may be sunny

    It may be cloudy

    It may rain, sleet, or snow

    Got it. :salute:
     
  13. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    >
    Will the Republicans win the Senate in 2018?

    Not sure you heard but, Republicans already have a majority in the senate. Will they keep it in 2018?

    Probably not.
     
  14. perdidochas

    perdidochas Well-Known Member

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    You do realize impeachment can't occur unless you have 2/3 of the House to vote for it. (and 2/3 of the Senate to remove from office).
     
  15. yiostheoy

    yiostheoy Well-Known Member

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    It is anyone's guess what will happen in November.

    If all the people who got tax hikes from Trump Tax Reform vote DEM then there is a good chance the GOP will lose both the Senate and the House, yes.
     
  16. marty_mcfly

    marty_mcfly Member

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    I know that they have a slight majority in the Senate. On the surface, it wouldn't take very much (just 2 extra seats) for the Democrats and progressive independents to overtake them. But when you look at the seats which are being contested right now, it doesn't look like anything will change this year as far as the senate goes. I'm more confident about the Democrats winning the House of Representatives though. Hopefully, that will be enough to minimize the damage of Trump's presidency.
     
  17. tecoyah

    tecoyah Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    The unpredictability of Congressional power shift seems to be less so in the upcoming mid terms. History already shows a likely shift away from Republicans, but the added impact of disgust in our President and the trend seen in special election results indicates something of a possible Tsunami.
     
  18. Borat

    Borat Banned

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    The Republicans will virtually certainly retain the Senate and in all likelihood will increase their majority, there are just way too many extremely vulnerable Democrats in extremely red states. This BTW precludes any chance of successful unseating the president, impeachment or not.

    The Dems do have a good shot at the Congress or so it seems... Their generic ballot margin is down to 6% and dropping, which may not be enough to win control due to their very high concentration in urban areas.

    Moreover, the moment the left figured out that pro-gun moderate dems like Lamb can compete and win in red districts, they in their infinite liberal wisdom started an all out assault on guns, gun owners and the second amendment. No doubt it will come back to haunt them in November, what a better way to motivate rural America and gun owners who may have reservations about Trump and republicans to come out and vote in droves.
     
  19. GoogleMurrayBookchin

    GoogleMurrayBookchin Banned

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    I think the democrats will do better than they did the past couple of years, but I have faith in the democrats to relentlessly **** up no matter how easy it should be to beat a party that puts absolutely no effort into looking like they care about people.
     
  20. fmw

    fmw Well-Known Member

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    Why would a political party care about people? People aren't their mission. Political power is their mission.
     
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  21. Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson Well-Known Member

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    WRONG.

    I would suggest that you RE-READ The Constitution before embarrassing yourself further.

    The House can approve Articles of Impeachment by a SIMPLE MAJORITY.

    The Senate requires a 2/3 vote for Conviction, but a Simple Majority is all that is required in The House.


    Happy clear that up for you.

    You're welcome. :salute:
     
  22. TOG 6

    TOG 6 Well-Known Member

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    Yes... and so, the Dems have no hope of removing Trump from office.
     
  23. Ronstar

    Ronstar Well-Known Member Past Donor

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    if he Obstructs Justice he may be removed.
     

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