Would the US act if China invaded Taiwan?

Yes it would be.

That doesn’t negate the fact that China is spending a fortune on creating bases in the South China Sea and the USA just gained four new bases without having to dredge up the sea floor to build an island. In addition, Philippines have boosted their military spending dramatically and are receiving training from the USA. I have no doubt that the next war over Taiwan will be fought by proxy so in addition to Japan massively increasing their military having the Philippines change their Anti-American stance is a big win.

 

And I for one am both concerned, and reassured that they are doing that.

I for one do not discount Japan for a moment. They are now building the largest military they have had since WWII, and are expected to be the 4th most powerful in the world shortly. I am both a bit worried that Japan is going to have the first "real navy" they have had since WWII, but also reassured as they are a solid US ally now unlike then.

And their newest "helicopter carriers" are only removed form a modern carrier able to carry jets like the F-35 in name only. They are actually fully capable of being true "aircraft carriers", the only reason they largely are not is mostly political. But if push came to shove, even one of their "helicopter carriers" with the F-35B on board is more than a match for the "Chinese Carriers".

 

Actually, they can carry F-35's, which are capable of vertical takeoff and landing... like HARRIERS.

 

Yeah, it’s definitely concerning to see that Japan is arming itself. Poland is pumping its military expenditures to 5% of GDP too.
I don’t blame either country but I would definitely rather see the world disarming rather than arming. We trust these countries now but who knows what leader may come along in a few years who starts to feel like the best defence is a good offense and starts pre-emptively striking countries.

A lot of countries work in concert with the USA and aren’t able to do much without American partnership which is kind of reassuring but when you think how close the USA came to a fundamental change on Jan 6, 2021 that can get concerning too.

 

arming... disarming... rearming... war... disarming.. rearming... war... thus has ite evr been... thus it will ever be.

NOTE: That disorganized, unarmed mob of protesters that occupied ONE BUILDING for a few hours didn't come close to accomplishing anything at all. It wasn't even a very good protest.

 

I am aware of that, as they have already been tested from those ships. However, for diplomatic and treaty purposes it does not carry them and they are listed as "Helicopter Destroyers". However, it very much can carry them if the need arises.

 

However, putting one's head into a hole in the sand has been proven to do little against an aggressive nation.

Is simply a fact of life. And the fact that Japan is leaving over 70 years of pacifism should be raising an alert in other nations. Not that I am worried about Japan, but in what that means in that area of the world.

The same with Poland and most of the other Central and Eastern European nations.

 

Nations tend to arm themselves when they feel threatened.
Just like average citizens do.

 

Yeah I agree. I think Russia and China are credible threats. If I lived in Poland Or Japan I would definitely want to see my government arming itself right now. In fact, I live in Canada and I want to see my government increase its spending on military.

 

I understand that I am digressing a bit,but when you say you'd like to see Canada spend more on defense, I must mention a personal experience that might lend some insight into what that means. in the 1990's, the Canadian MoD made the decision to divest itself of its 81mm mortars. As a replacement they were looking at an improved version of the MK17 grenade Machine Gun used by the US Marines. They called their project CASW (Company Area Suppression Weapon). I was working on the ill-fated XM29/XM8 at the time, and they wanted a new sight for their weapon like what the XM29 was using. For the better part of a year, we traveled to Canada regularly for discussions. The Canadian MoD project office wined and dined us from first class restaurants in Toronto to farms that featured maple syrup in all its various forms. We had a ball. The project office seemed unable to make any decisions. They ended up spending all their allotted funds, then everyone in the office retired... joking on the way out the door that the "USA will protect us".

 

Yeah you have told me that before. There are a few things to think about with that. 1) it was the 1990’s. The Cold War was over and the Biggest threat was Iraq, which was a manufactured crisis 2) the USA spends more than the rest of the world combined on military arms 3) by the end of WWII Canada had the third largest Navy in the world and the fifth largest Air Force in the world. When **** hits the fan, we are there.

That being said, we need to up our game today and while Justin Trudeau is increasing our military spending, I think more could and should be done.

 

I didn't know your Air Force was that big. My only work with the Canadian Air Force involved a system called GPWS (Ground Proximity Warning System). Most pilots set a minimum distance on their altimeters that, if violated, will warn them they are too close to the ground. This helps them navigate when low to the ground in conditions of low visibility due to sand or snow. GPWS adds additional sensor inputs to make the warning even more effective. Canada bought GPWS for its fixed wing transport aircraft like C-130, but the US Air Force and Army Aviation rejected it in favor of spending the money on weapons.

I must admit I don't spend a lot of time trying to analyze Trudeau, but it would seem to be a difficult task. His tyrannical view on individual gun ownership would seem to be at odds with increasing defense spending. Then there is the hatred of truckers and their freedoms.... Oh well, with Biden in the White House we are hardly in a position to criticize the leaders of other countries.

 

Do not confuse the amount spent on defense with acquisition of arms. They are not even close to the same thing.

The majority of the US military budget actually goes to pay and benefits. That there is about half of the budget all by itself. In reality, the US only spend around $118b on procurement. The next largest expenditure is maintenance, both of equipment and facilities. The next time somebody wants to complain about say poor conditions in barracks, that is the budget pool that pays for that. And it is a constant expense, as if one goes to almost any base there are barracks and buildings constantly being refurbished. And a great many of those facilities now date back over 50 years. And a great deal of the equipment is now 40 years old or more.

In the area of actually spending for equipment, the current leader is actually China, which is spending an estimated in excess of $200b a year just in acquiring new equipment. That is almost double what the US spends.

Of course, they also spend a hell of a lot less on things like pay, as they pay less than the US does, and low ranking soldiers can not even get married in China. One of the biggest and rising expenses the US faces is actually dependent care. As they are obligated to cover all medical expenses for dependents, as well as housing and sometimes even education. Something that the Chinese military has to spend very little on as only more senior members can get married there.

 

And don't forget the NEW expenditures for abortion. The military will pay expenses of the service member AND FAMILY to a state that still offers abortion, and the time is counted as non-chargeable paid vacation. Ann, of course are sexually confused transgenders that get the free surgery to make them... well... whatever they are called these days.

 

China also concentrates most of its military power on China and the South China Sea. The USA spreads its forces across the globe. That makes Chinese spending more effectively placed. That said, I think China would fold like a house of cards due to the lack of morale. I don’t think the Chinese people care to fight a war, just like Russian soldiers don’t care to fight a war. China also faces the same problem of reliance on rail for logistics that has hindered Russia and their tanks are untested and based on Russian tank designs. China also lacks the ability to manufacture the newest microchips which also leaves them at a disadvantage.

 

Not applicable, and such a small amount it is completely insignificant. Like it or not, abortion is legal. And when looked at entirely practically, paying for a service member or their family to have an abortion is far less expensive then what they would expend in pre and post-natal care of a child. Therefore, your claim is actually backwards.

You are confusing me here with somebody that is looking at this through a veil of politics. I do not, and as always pretty much reject such kinds of claims.

 

I am looking at it as a Soldier. Taking money from ammunition acquisition, for example, so that someone unable to buy a condom, an IUD, a birth control pill, or a diaphragm can get free paid time off plus travel and expenses... is ridiculous. Purely as a citizen, it angers me too. Can I go buy a yacht and have the government pay for it? Only seems fair.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/jap...attack-helicopters-with-drone-aircraft-2023-3

No more helicopters for Japan it seems

 

UxV's (drones) will be proliferating globally. Cheaper, stealthier, less risky to operators... its the wave of the future. Our own Navy will be a Navy of drones in the coming years.... from aircraft to ships to subsurface craft. It will be fun to watch.

If Biden doesn't get us nuked first.

 

I wouldn't be too concerned if I were you. I didn't see the broadcast, but it sounds as if it was unnecessarily alarmist. It was likely meant for the consumption of the home audience, to help ease public resistance to increases in funding for preparations.

I am an electrical engineer in digital and analog control systems. I have done design work on many, if not most, of our missile and other defense related programs for over 40 years. I not only know these systems 1st hand, I keep abreast of the latest developments in general. I have an avid interest in economics and geopolitics, studying both extensively.

Anytime you are dealing with a tyrannical totalitarian regime (e.g. Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim, Stalin, Hitler, Mao, etc.) they don't always make the wisest choices. At times they can be unpredictable and exhibit poor judgement (Putin?). That said, it would be a grave mistake for Xi to make a move militarily to occupy Taiwan. China is not at a point where they can take on the US, let alone the addition of other Western powers like Great Britain, Japan, Korea, and other regional players like the Philippines and even Taiwan itself. Taiwan would not be an easy undertaking. Taiwan has defensive capabilities. Any initial invasion would have to cross 90 miles of water. More probable invasion points are perhaps 110+ miles. It wouldn't be a cakewalk for an untested non-veteran Chinese invasion force. All marine landings are tricky. No one does it better than the US and GB, having learned lessons over extensive history with such operations. One big advantage China has would be air cover. They have coastal Air bases which could easily extend control over the Taiwan Strait. However, a successful invasion of Taiwan would not be sufficient to be of significant benefit to China. While Taiwan's proximity to mainland China provides military advantages for a potential invasion, it would not be enough for China to benefit from the seizure of Taiwan.

China has a brown-water Navy and is still quite far from being able to prevail in a conflict with the US, let alone with the addition of other allied regional players. The term brown-water Navy (as opposed to blue-water) refers to navies which are primarily restricted to rivers and coastal patrols. The Chinese Navy would not fare well against the US or British Navy (among others). Japan, Korea, Australia each have regional superiority near their respective AOC. Other players in the region further enhance the allied force structure arrayed against a potential Chinese adversary. In essence, while China would likely be able to successfully take Taiwan, it would pay a heavy price in the process and would not attain the benefits one might think based solely on Taiwan's current economic capability.

China cannot extend control out into blue waters. Waters which it must control in order to benefit from the production and export of semiconductors and other goods from Taiwan you mentioned. Worse, China wouldn't be able to import or export so much as a spoon from mainland China over water should it invade Taiwan and become a pariah state. The US, GB and others allied would preclude China from having any hope of keeping the shipping lanes vital for China open. Taking Taiwan would indeed damage Western technology commerce to an extent, but the resulting blockade would devastate the Chinese economy. China is heavily dependent on the importation of several resources (oil, food, etc. - long list). China depends even more on its ability to export. While China has made limited progress ensuring oil flow from Russia, it has a way to go to fully obtain the supplies needed. Food supply would be dismal.

The all-important supply lines through the Malacca Straight would and could be cut off to Chinese shipping virtually instantaneously. The Malacca straight is only 40 miles wide, sits between two wealthy allied nations (Malaysia and Indonesia), and is the only viable southern shipping lane available to China. Powerful US and British resources are near the strait and Malaysia's geography alone gives them complete control of the Eastern mouth of the straight. Located just South of the massive city of Singapore. This wouldn't even require a substantial Navy as shore assets alone could do the job (air too?). Close to 80% of China's oil needs pass through this straight. This figure may be somewhat lower now with the addition of long pipelines sourced from Russia through several other Asian countries. The only other two alternative routes pass directly through the Indonesian Islands (Sunda Straight and Lombok Straight) and are less viable options.

The Chinese economy is a joke. It is in a shambles (as all socialist systems become). This probably has more to do with their selloff of US Treasuries than any nefarious attempts at undermining the US economy. In fact, it is in many ways a tremendous benefit to the US economy and signals the end of the Chinese economic miracle. The chickens have come home to roost. In short, if there is a window of opportunity for Chinese hegemony in the region it is closing fast. If China does make a move, it will be due to their realization the future looks bleak (now-or-never). I DO NOT believe these are the cards China will play, nor does it align with their past strategies. I've actually been quite impressed with the geopolitical maneuvers taken by the CCP. From an outside view they appear to be irrational (and that is their intent). From a different perspective, China's actions are likely more rational. China's strategy appears to be the long-term undermining of the US and other competing nations from within. Subverting our elected officials (Biden and others?), encouraging social strife, manipulation of the media, undermining our education system, and putting pressure on the US economy. While they appear to be provoking direct military confrontation, it is important to understand these provocations have all fallen short of direct conflict. It serves to further drain Western resources without actually entering into war. They push the limits when they believe Western responses will stop short of military retaliation. They fly aircraft dangerously close to our planes. They sail into the path of our ships, forcing us to alter course to evade. They routinely conduct surprise sorties over the Taiwanese side of the Straight, only to scamper back into China. They exhibit as much bad behavior as they can get away with. One shouldn't necessarily interpret this as their desire to enter into war. Understand, manipulating whole populations is what they know. They are VERY good at it, as are Russian propogandists. It is merely an extension of the CCP's control of their own population. Control the media, control all information, spy on the population to head-off potential instigators before they can gain a footing. Economic controls and pressures... etc. etc. They are just extending these practices into the American theatre. They are largely succeeding! The liberals seem all too willing to jump on their band wagon no matter how silly the policy. They have also been manipulated in other matters designed to sow division in the US. Weaponization of the DOJ, dissolution of the border, massive illegal immigration (including terrorists), flooding the streets with cheap/highly addictive/deadly drugs, drag-queen hour for 2nd graders, personal pronouns, obfuscation of gender identity, racial animosities, etc. etc. These are all left-wing agitations fostered by the socialists and communists on the Western populations. They are designed to undermine the Republic and other Western powers. This is a much more likely path of success for them. Especially now they have subverted our POTUS as well as many other government officials. To date the liberals have swallowed these ploys with great avarice! I was actually one of the first to publicly uncover the fact Antifa and BLM are the same organization down to all but perhaps the lowest street level members.

We also don't need to be too concerned with their nuclear capability.

The semiconductors produced by Taiwan are not the highest densities. All of our vital programs have stockpiles of the necessary components. We could easily fill the gap before defense stockpiles of parts are exhausted. Replenishing the shortfalls could be done in a very short time. We aren't talking the high-density processors here. Those we produce. It is the glue logic chips like UARTs, Shift-registers, all the way down to simple logic which Taiwan produces in quantity. So, the number you gave of 60% doesn't address the full picture. On any particular design there might be a couple processors, some microcontrollers, and perhaps a couple of FPGA's. there may be many dozens of "glue" semiconductors. Counting those as equal to a processor doesn't give you a good picture of the reality. These low density semiconductors could have production ramped up domestically in short order. And we have stockpiles. Some industries like the automotive industry might see supply chain issues for 6 months to a year. But we would get by.

So no, I strongly believe China will not invade Taiwan (near term). We would respond. I could be very wrong as tyrants often have their own personal issues driving their decisions. Xi does not appear to be stupid, and it would be unwise.

 

Russia has really transformed their strategy to include massive production of drones too. I saw somewhere that their use of artillery over the last months has dropped by 75%. Their drone production has ramped up significantly.

I am waiting for a new wave of drones that hunt and kill drones. Probably already exists somewhere.

 

My father died just over a month ago, around Christmas. He was also a West Point grad. Retired LTC. Quite an accomplishment, congratulations. My son could have gone and turned it down to get his aeronautical engineering degree at a great University. After graduating he decided to join the military (?). He did several tours in Afghanistan. His last tour he was attacked by 2 suicide bombers within a minute of each other. Miracle he survived. Anyway, that is somewhat off topic.

Great reply by the way.

If only China could keep its own economy afloat. At the moment China is in serious decline. We are feeding them through those supply lines. Russia and Iran (nor China) can feed China. The SCS supply lines are still vital to China. Exports through the SCS are how they are paying for the Russian oil. The idea China need only trade with Russia and Iran overland is inaccurate. None are food exporters. Many other vital resources as well. Both export and import through the SCS are still very much vital to China. The pipelines to Russia have improved their situation somewhat (for both Russia and China). But the capacity isn't yet there. My post was on the near term. In my head, near term meant in the next few month up until the US elections.

The facts listed in your response on Chinese aggression are valid and material. They are testing us and they do view our current leadership as feckless. They obtained this view by testing us and finding the Biden leadership time after time fails the test. In war you often make maneuvers you have no intention of following through. It forces your opponent to react, expending their energies and fostering confusion among their ranks. Their responsiveness indicates how much they are weakening. You can also present your opponent with an irresistible target only to pull it away when they attempt to obtain it. Sun Tsu. They are testing us and they will continue to do so. It is placing a strain on us, especially our military. But at this moment I still do not believe they have the ability to keep the SCS shipping lanes open to themselves. I am talking near term here.

The issues you mentioned are a grave concern to us. The end of the Biden administration cannot come soon enough. They fail in virtually every regard, especially the border, the economy, and geopolitics. I see this as another reason China WON'T make a move near term. It would guarantee another Trump administration. And they don't want that! Between now and November our greatest asset may be the most incompetent administration in the history of mankind going back to Hammurabi. Our enemies are praying the DNC can fix another November election or somehow convince a brain dead electorate they are the ones for the job. 6 months of play nice buys them 50 months of bitch slapping us.

You might be surprised to hear I agree totally with all of your points about issues the US must address, and quickly. It's just I think the Chinese realize they will still exist immediately following the elections and likely be worse. Immigration numbers are estimated to almost TRIPLE between now and the election so they can infiltrate before Trump gets in. These estimates (while astounding), are likely valid. Once Trump gets into office (or his reelection becomes near certain) the likelihood of a near term move on Taiwan will go up. We should be preparing and fixing these issues you raised (and many more) with the utmost expediency. I doubt Biden is up to the task and so do the Chinese.

Thanks for your response and input. It really was top-notch and brought up many of the issues I've been following with concern.

 

Surely at least on the drawing boards. I have seen photos of Russian soldiers aiming something at drones to knock them down that would appear, at first glance, to be some sort of an EMP generator. Technology marches on.

 

It appears that great minds continue to think alike... LOL. Was your dad Class of 1975 by any chance? (COURAGE AND DRIVE! '75!)

I am of the opinion that the almost inevitable conflict may begin at or near our election. China has been sitting there watching us get weaker and weaker in both military capability and the resolve to use it, throughout Biden's administration. There is no reason to attack a failing enemy. Let him fail all on his own. But when we show any signs of reversing this trend and regaining strength and vigor... our enemies will attack. America has never shown such weakness as she shows today, from open borders, to a woke military and more. Enemies would be foolhardy to ignore this.

China has a plan and we have ignorance.

I pity my grandkids and their progeny, if they are able to have any.