The one part of the NIE estimate from April.....highlighted recently by the liberal press and Democrats......claiming that Iraq was a fantastic recruiting tool for al Qaeda....appears to have been OFF just a bit. Actually a lot. Of course, this document is something ONLY conservative blogs picked up. The mainstream press wasn't interested. What else is new?

October 02, 2006
Bin Laden to Zarqawi: We're Not Doing So Well!

I missed this when it came out last week, but CENTCOM has released a new document at West Point's Combating Terrorism Center. The document is a letter from a high-ranking al Qaeda officer named Atiyah, who passes on criticisms of Zarqawi that apparently originated with bin Laden, Zawahiri, or other top al Qaeda leaders. The document was found, as I understand it, in Zarqawi's "safe" house after he was terminated with extreme prejudice by an American bomb.

You have to plow through a lot of palaver to get to the substance of the letter. What I think is most interesting is the picture that it paints of al Qaeda's prospects, especially in light of the recently-leaked fragments of the National Intelligence Estimate purportedly saying that the Iraq war has been a recruiting bonanza for al Qaeda, and that al Qaeda's numbers and support are ever-increasing. Al Qaeda itself seems to see its position quite differently. The letter says:

The path is long and difficult, and the enemy isn’t easy, for he is great and numerous and he can take quite a bit of punishment as well. [Ed.: This is very different from how al Qaeda wrote about the U.S. after the flight from Somalia.]
I command you, my brother, and I am your brother and I have nothing except these words that are between the two of us and God as the third party, that you send messengers from your end to Waziristan so that they meet with the brothers of the leadership, and the rational and experienced people and the shaykhs here, because you have a greater chance to send messengers (brothers that you choose) than your brothers have here. [So al Qaeda's leadership is so pinned down that they can't even send messengers to Iraq.]

I am now on a visit to them and I am writing you this letter as I am with them, and they have some comments about some of your circumstances, may God guide you, with due confidence, affection, respect, and esteem. They wish that they had a way to talk to you and advise you, and to guide and instruct you; however, they too are occupied with vicious enemies here. [That would be us, I assume.] They are also weak, and we ask God that He strengthen them and mend their fractures. They have many of their own problems, but they are people of reason, experience, and sound, beneficial knowledge. [Note: al Qaeda's leadership is "weak."]

Know that we, like all the mujahidin, are still weak. We are in the stage of weakness and a state of paucity. We have not yet reached a level of stability. We have no alternative but to not squander any element of the foundations of strength, or any helper or supporter.

But wait! Where are all those millions of jihadists who are supposedly flocking to al Qaeda's banner because of the Iraq war? They apparently are invisible to the organization's leadership, which sees al Qaeda as "weak," "in the stage of weakness" and in "a state of paucity." Paucity would mean not enough recruits and support."

http://powerlineblog.com/archives/015439.php

IMHO, I believe that IF our countrymen were hanging tough together and NOT giving al Qaeda the glimmer of hope they receive when they watch CNN International and read about the Democrat leadership's views.....we could win this thing pretty quickly.

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

Anyone who believes a word of this is a moron.

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America is a melting pot, the people at the bottom get burned while all the scum floats to the top.
- - - Charlie King

It is a strange time in the history of this country when the military leadership appears to be sane and conservative about the limits of force compared with the civilian leadership. The generals would love to be rid of Rummy and his incompetent leadership.

You should watch FRONTLINE, tonight. It seems that while U.S. efforts in Iraq have not prevented that country from sliding into anarchy and ethnic cleansing, our absence of attention In Afghanistan may well lose that country, as well.

It is really smart to believe one unverified document over the consensus opinion of all 16 intelligence agencies.

AND it is really, really STUPID to totally discount words that are coming right from the enemy itself.

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"This is a time for a national imperative not to fail in Iraq." Condoleeza Rice, January 11, 2007

Not everyone believes everything they read. Forgive us for evolving to a point where nothing is believable until presonally verified first.

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America is a melting pot, the people at the bottom get burned while all the scum floats to the top.
- - - Charlie King

Yep. Bush says "Iraq is going well". Do we believe him?

If these words did come directly from the enemy themselves, I find them to be of a more inspirational and religious nature than a summary of military strength. It would do you well to remember that when the US was fighting Britain that the leaders of the Revolution wrote similar encouragements to each other, urging them to keep the faith. "We must hang together or we shall assuredly hang separately." from Ben Franklin comes to mind here. You do remember who won that war, correct?

This could also be a ruse from Al Qaeda's leaders in Iraq trying to get more resources from the central organization.

There is more than one way to interpret this and but a single one is that if half the voting public would stop being (*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*)(*) our enemies would lay down their arms, forsake Allah and go away. Surely you don't believe they're THAT easily sated, do you?

Considering the enemy in Iraqs almost sole form of waging war is the intentional murder of civilians and booby traps.

YES.

They are losing badly.

The only way they can win now is for you and others to pull the rug out from under our troops and sacrifice the Iraqis to the enemy..there is no way in hell they can win otherwise.

...Iraq `going well` what does `going badly` look like?

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Outside of a dog, a book is man's best friend. Inside of a dog it's too dark to read.
Marx (G.)