Thread: Egypt: How Bad Electoral System Could Crash Revolution:

How Bad Election Law Could Crash Egypt's Revolution:

When it comes to revolutions, election law reform is just not as exciting as, say, toppling a brutal dictator through non-violent protest; nor is the threat of bad election law reform quite as scary as, for example, the threat of a military junta taking that dictator's place. But one of the more auspicious lessons from the past two centuries of democratic revolutions is that the esoteric details of how a country holds its first legitimate election can sometimes be just as important, and just as dangerous, as, for example, whether that country's military decides to turn its guns on a pro-democracy movement, as it is doing now in Syria, or to stand them down, as it did in Egypt. That latter country might have gotten closer to democracy than nearly any other Arab state so far, but the new election rules it released this week could undo it all.

The revamped electoral laws, announced Thursday by Egypt's interim (maybe!) military government, are a confusing mish-mash of a few different electoral systems. They include a whole new delineation of 184 districts, voters in which will choose between, depending on the district, some combination of individual candidates and party lists. The rules, designed for the upcoming November elections, which will set the standard for Egyptian democracy, repeat what may be the biggest mistake that nascent democracies make: something called "first past the post." It's the system we use in the U.S., where every election has a list of candidates, and the candidate who gets the most votes in that particular election wins the seat. Why is that so bad? It's complicated, but the video below provides a compelling and surprisingly entertaining (it uses jungle animals) explanation:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7tWHJfhiyo

Actually, it's much worse than that. The video above has "cheetah" winning the national election with only 20 percent, the most of the seven candidates. The other 80 percent of the electorate that did not support "cheetah" glumly accepts the results. But, often, that's not what happens. In a country with little tradition of democracy and widespread anxiety about whether a democratic system is really right for them, watching a minority take power can often lead people to reject the idea of democracy or to consider the new government illegitimate.

Or worse. The country that no one in Egypt wants to talk about right now is Algeria. In 1991, Algeria's government, bowing to outside pressure and internal pro-democracy activism (sound familiar?), held the country's first-ever real democratic elections. They set the system as first past the post: voters in each district chose between a list of parties, and the party that got the most votes in that district would represent it in the parliament. But because the democratic system was so new, there were dozens of political parties, some with overlapping ideologies, few very experienced in campaigning. Though Algerian society was not particularly Islamist for an Arab state, the Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), an Islamist party, was able to use its access to preexisting religious institutions to campaign and organize. On election day, Algeria's many liberals and socialists and centrists split their votes among the many liberal, socialist, and centrist parties. The FIS swept elections, winning districts with often less than a quarter of its votes. The Islamist party was poised to dominate the government, though most people had voted against it. The Algerian military, which is staunchly secular and socialist, cancelled the elections and staged a coup. The civil war this started lasted a decade and killed a quarter of a million Algerians.

We probably don't have to worry about Egypt falling into civil war if the election produces nationally unpalatable results. More likely, the military leadership would refuse to cede power and marginalize democratic institutions into the irrelevant rubber-stampers they were under Hosni Mubarak. Even if they did honor the results, any election conducted under these newly announced rules would be unlikely to produce a government that really represented Egypt. As I've written, the Muslim Brotherhood is actually not very popular in Egypt. But they're the least unpopular of Egypt's zillion or so political parties. They're only showing about 15 to 20 percent national approval, but that might be enough to win many Egyptian districts, where dozens of political parties, none of them very organized, are running.

There are many other democratic systems that get around the problems of first past the post. Perhaps the most successful is something called "party-list proportional representation," used by Turkey, Israel, Brazil, and much of Europe. Everyone votes for a party, and each party gets seats in parliament proportional to their take in the national vote. A party that wins 10 percent of the national vote, for example, gets to hold 10 percent of the seats in parliament. This system isn't as obvious as first past the post, and it can seem a little counter-intuitive (voters don't select individual candidates, leaving that to the party), but the end result is usually a government that more closely reflects the will of the people.

To compare the two systems, let's game out how they might work in Egypt. We'll assume that the most recent polling is accurate: the Muslim Brotherhood will win 15 percent of the vote, Mubarak's old National Democratic Party will win 10 percent, and the rest will be split among a few dozen nascent political parties, which range from Western-style secular liberals to right-wing orthodox Salafist Islamists.

In a pure first past the post system (not quite what Egypt is currently planning, but a rough approximation), the Muslim Brotherhood will eek out a tiny majority in most of the country's districts, where it will win about 15 percent of the vote. The National Democratic Party will also win a decent share of seats, profiting from name recognition. A few districts in the wealthier parts of Cairo or Alexandria might elect one of the new liberal parties. But, in most districts, liberal and/or secular votes get split between competing liberal-secular parties, meaning most of them lose. The end result will be a Muslim Brotherhood-dominated government, with factions of the old regime, in a country that doesn't want to be led by either. Many of the activists who led the revolution become disenchanted with democracy and don't bother to protest if the military holds on to some of its newfound power.

Now what's look at what might happen in a European-style party-list proportional representation system. The Muslim Brotherhood wins about 15 percent of the national vote, the National Democratic Party 10 percent; the other 75 percent of the vote is split about evenly between 10 or so new parties, some of which are liberal-secular, some of which are socialist, and some of which are Salafist. In the new government, liberal-secular parties and socialist parties band together with moderates from the Muslim Brotherhood to form a ruling coalition, which reflects the will and desire of a majority of Egyptian voters.

Or there's the Algerian model. If Egypt is going to make the smart choice, the U.S. and other Western governments that lobbied so hard for Mubarak's departure might want to consider applying the same pressure now on the Egyptian military leadership. Designing a good electoral system might not be the most exciting part of a democratic revolution, but it's by far one of the most important -- and riskiest.

Egypt really needs to re-consider, this is electoral system is not good!

Egypt's Arab Spring - dey gonna spring Mubarak outta jail an' put him back in power...

Egypt court dissolves parliament
June 15, 2012 - Judges appointed by Hosni Mubarak have dissolved the Islamist-dominated parliament and ruled his former prime minister eligible for the presidential runoff election this weekend - setting the stage for the military and remnants of the old regime to stay in power.

Thursday's politically charged rulings dealt a heavy blow to the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood, with one senior member calling the decisions a "full-fledged coup", and the group vowed to rally the public against Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister to serve under Mubarak. The decision by the Supreme Constitutional Court effectively erased the tenuous progress from Egypt's troubled transition in the past year, leaving the country with no parliament and concentrating power even more firmly in the hands of the generals who took over from Mubarak. Several hundred people gathered in Cairo's Tahrir Square after the rulings to denounce the action and rally against Shafiq, the presidential candidate seen by critics as a symbol of Mubarak's autocratic rule. But with no calls by the Brotherhood or other groups for massive demonstrations, the crowd did not grow.

Activists who engineered Egypt's uprising have long suspected that the generals would try to cling to power, explaining that after 60 years as the nation's single most dominant institution, the military would be reluctant to surrender its authority or leave its economic empire to civilian scrutiny. Shafiq's rival in the Saturday-Sunday runoff, Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, said he was unhappy about the rulings but accepted them. "It is my duty as the future president of Egypt, God willing, to separate between the state's authorities and accept the rulings," the US-trained engineer said in a television interview. Late Thursday, he told a news conference: "Millions will go to the ballot boxes on Saturday and Sunday to say 'No' to the tyrants."

Senior Brotherhood leader and lawmaker Mohammed el-Beltagy was less diplomatic, saying the judges' action amounted to a "full-fledged coup" . "This is the Egypt that Shafiq and the military council want and which I will not accept no matter how dear the price is," he wrote on his Facebook page. Equally blunt was another Brotherhood stalwart, lawmaker Subhi Saleh. "The court, I can say, has handed Egypt to the military council on a golden platter and free of charge too," he said. In last year's parliamentary elections - Egypt's first democratic ones in generations - the Brotherhood became the biggest party in the legislature, with nearly half the seats, alongside more conservative Islamists who took another 20 per cent. It is hoping to win the presidency as well.

The rulings, however, take away the Brotherhood's power base in parliament and boost Shafiq at a time when the Islamists are at sharp odds with a wide array of major forces, including the military, the judiciary and pro-democracy groups behind the uprising. The court also derailed the broader transition to democracy, said rights activist Hossam Bahgat. "The military placed all powers in its hands. The entire process has been undermined beyond repair," Bahgat said. "They now have the legislative and the executive powers in their hands and there is a big likelihood that the military-backed candidate (Shafiq) is going to win. It is a soft military coup that unfortunately many people will support out of fear of an Islamist takeover of the state."

MORE

See also:

Egyptians Outraged By Parliament Dissolution; Muslim Brotherhood Warns Of 'Dark Tunnel'
June 14, 2012 : Many Egyptians are outraged following the Supreme Court's decision to dissolve the lower house of parliament, temporarily transferring power to the Military Council until new elections are held.

The court ruled that last year's parliamentary elections were unconstitutional, saying they were improperly regulated and that one-third of the seats in the Islamist-dominated parliament were invalid. Although the court has called for new elections, the ruling is seen as a slight against the democratic will of the Egyptian people, which was only exacerbated by a separate ruling that upheld former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq's participation in the presidential run-off elections this weekend. Muslim Brotherhood MP Mohamed Al-Beltagy said the rulings "amount to a comprehensive coup which is reversing the most noble 16 months in this nation's history ... This is the Egypt that Ahmed Shafiq and those behind him want," BBC reported.

Another Muslim Brotherhood figure, Essam Al-Arian, warned the ruling on parliament will send Egypt into a "dark tunnel". Shafiq, who served under deposed President Hosni Mubarak, is the preferred candidate of the military, but viewed with distrust by Egypt's conservative Islamic political parties -- the Muslim Brotherhood and the ultra-conservative Salafist al-Nour party in particular -- for his role in the former regime. The Muslim Brotherhood holds the majority of seats in parliament's lower house with 47 percent, followed by al-Nour with 24 percent.

Shafiq will face-off with the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party candidate Mohamed Mursi in run-off elections on Saturday and Sunday. Mursi said the Supreme Court rulings "must be respected" despite outrage from members of his coalition. "I respect the decision of the Supreme Constitutional Court in that I respect the institutions of the state and the principle of separation of powers," Mursi told Egyptian TV.

With the elections presenting a conservative Islamist and a former Mubarak-era official as the only two options, secular and liberal Egyptians, many of whom led the uprising in Tahrir Square that toppled Mubarak last year but who represent a minority in parliament, are disillusioned with the unfolding of the democratic process post-revolution and plan to boycott the elections. The court rulings have only cemented political apathy among this constituency which had once been so energized to take down Mubarak. "Egypt just witnessed the smoothest military coup," said Hossam Bahgat, a human rights activist. "We'd be outraged if we weren't so exhausted."

Source

Oops! Mebbe Uncle Joe should read the mornin' paper...

Biden Praises Arab Spring on Same Day Egypt Dissolves Its Parliament
June 14, 2012 - Vice President Joe Biden, speaking at a high school commencement ceremony in Virginia on Thursday, called the Arab Spring a “democratic movement”--on the same day that the Egyptian high court nullified the Islamist majority parliament and the Egyptian military assumed control of the legislature.

“The democratic movement that swept across the Middle East, the so called Arab Spring, began when a lowly fruit vendor set himself ablaze to protest a corrupt government, igniting a confrontation magnified by social media that literally set off a revolution that was waiting to happen for well over 200 years,” Biden said in his speech at Tallwood High School in Virginia Beach, Va. In Cairo on Thursday, the Egyptian high court determined that the regulatory laws for parliamentary elections are invalid, meaning by law the current parliament is nullified and obligated to dissolve.

According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), the Egyptian parliament was dominated by Islamists. "On January 23, the People’s Assembly held its inaugural session following what many international observers have deemed to be a somewhat successful, though not perfect, election for the lower house of parliament known as the People’s Assembly," the CRS reported.

"Of the 498 elected seats, Islamists of varying sorts control nearly 70%, with the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP)-led Democratic Alliance controlling the most at 47% (235 total)," said CRS. "The Islamist Alliance-list led by the Salafist Nour Party came second with 25% (125 seats), followed by the Wafd at 8% and the liberal Egyptian bloc party list at 6.8%. The SCAF appointed 10 seats (mostly women and Coptic Christians). With an overwhelming majority of seats, most analysts anticipate that many legislative issues will be subject primarily to intra-Islamist competition between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists."

According to Egyptian state media, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which has held central power in Egypt since President Hosni Mubarak resigned in February 2011, has reportedly assumed legislative authority in place of parliament. It is not clear if the ruling, which reportedly approved the right of Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, to run for president, will throw a wrench in the presidential election runoff, set to take place Saturday and Sunday. Shafiq is pitted against the Muslim Brotherhood candidate, Mohammed Morsi.

Source

Didn't dey get it right onna first day?...

Egypt votes for 2nd day to pick Mubarak successor
17 June`12 – Egyptians were choosing on Sunday between a conservative Islamist and Hosni Mubarak's ex-prime minister in the second day of a presidential runoff that has been overshadowed by questions on whether the ruling military will transfer power to civilian authority by July 1 as promised.

Going head-to-head in the runoff are Ahmed Shafiq, a longtime friend and self-confessed admirer of Mubarak, and Mohammed Morsi, the candidate of the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood. The two-day balloting, which ends Sunday evening, followed a week of political drama in which the military slapped de facto martial law on the country and judges appointed by Mubarak before his ouster dissolved the freely elected, Islamist-dominated parliament. The generals who took over from Mubarak 16 months ago are expected this week to spell out the powers of the new president and appoint a 100-member panel to draft a new constitution, moves that will further tighten the military's grip on the nation.

The race between Shafiq and Morsi has deeply divided the country, 16 months after a stunning uprising by millions forced the authoritarian Mubarak to step down after 29 years in office. "I am bitter and I am filled with regret that I have to choose between two people I hate. I have to pick a bad candidate only to avoid the worse of the two," lamented a silver-haired pensioner in Cairo's crowded Bab el-Shariyah district. He refused to give his name, fearing retribution for speaking so openly. "Nothing is going to be resolved and Egypt will not see stability," he added.

A similarly pessimistic note was echoed by another voter, accountant Yasser Gad, 45. "The country is heading to a disaster. It will keep boiling until it explodes. No one in the country wants the former regime to rule us again." Few voters displayed an air of celebration visible in previous post-Mubarak elections. The prevailing mood was one of deep anxiety over the future — tinged with bitterness that their "revolution" had stalled, fears that no matter who wins, street protests will erupt again, or deep suspicion that the political system was being manipulated. Moreover, there was a sense of voting fatigue.

Egyptians have gone to the polls multiple times since Mubarak's fall on Feb. 11, 2011 — a referendum early last year, then three months of multi-round parliamentary elections that began in November, and the first round of presidential elections last month. "It's a farce. I crossed out the names of the two candidates on my ballot paper and wrote 'the revolution continues'," said architect Ahmed Saad el-Deen, in Cairo's Sayedah Zeinab district, a middle-class area that is home to the shrine of a revered Muslim saint. "I can't vote for the one who killed my brother or the second one who danced on his dead body," he said, alluding to Shafiq's alleged role in the killing of protesters during last year's uprising and claims by revolutionaries that Morsi's Brotherhood rode the uprising to realize its own political goals.

MORE

Army pro'bly tired of the whole process of runnin' the country by now anyway...

Egypt's army vows to hand power to elected president
18 June 2012 - The BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo explains the implications of the military's move

Egypt's ruling military council has vowed to hand over power to an elected president by the end of June. The promise comes as votes are counted after Sunday's presidential run-off election, with both candidates claiming they are ahead in early results. However, the council had earlier issued a declaration granting itself sweeping powers over legislation and the introduction of a new constitution. Opposition groups condemned the declaration as a "coup".

Lt Muhammad al-Assar from the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (Scaf) told a news conference that a ceremony would be held in late June to hand over power to the new president, state media report. However, the constitutional declaration issued by the Scaf late on Sunday effectively gives it legislative powers, control over the budget and over who writes the permanent constitution following mass street protests that toppled Mr Mubarak in February 2011. It also strips the president of any authority over the army. The Scaf have even guaranteed themselves jobs for life, the BBC's Jon Leyne in Cairo reports.

'Grave setback'

There have been no big protests so far - the military must be hoping that Egyptians are simply too tired of politics to protest, and are willing to go for stability whatever the cost, our correspondent says. But the army's declaration was widely condemned in opposition circles. Prominent political figure Mohamed ElBaradei has described the document as a "grave setback for democracy and revolution". Former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, who came third in the first round of voting and was the favoured candidate of many in the protest movement, said the declaration was a "seizure of the future of Egypt". "We will not accept domination by any party," Mr Sabahi said.

Parliament speaker Saad al-Katatni, of the Muslim Brotherhood, said the declaration was "null and void". The Brotherhood had earlier urged Egyptians to "protect their revolution" after the Scaf dissolved parliament - dominated by the Brotherhood - on Saturday. Two days earlier, the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled that last year's legislative polls were unconstitutional because party members were allowed to contest seats in the lower house reserved for independents. On Monday morning, soldiers prevented MPs from entering parliament.

'No revenge'

Mubarak dead .
Could have implications .

Granny says, "Why don't dey call Jimmy Carter in to supervise it?...

Senior Egyptian Judges to Supervise Morsi's Constitutional Referendum
December 03, 2012 - Egypt's most senior judges have agreed to supervise a December 15 referendum on a new constitution drafted primarily by Islamists, giving a boost to President Mohammed Morsi, who called the vote.

The Supreme Judicial Council Monday said it will delegate officials to oversee the referendum, rejecting a call by lower-ranked judges with the influential Judges Club for a boycott. The Judges Club issued a statement Sunday urging a boycott as a protest against Mr. Morsi's November 22 decree that bars any courts from challenging his decisions. President Morsi needs judicial supervision of the referendum to legitimize it and the constitution drafted by his allies in a constituent assembly, which handed him the document on Saturday. Officials said they were moving ahead with referendum plans, including arrangements for Egyptian expatriates to cast their ballots at diplomatic missions abroad.

Morsi's liberal and secular opponents, including many junior judges, want to delegitimize the constitutional referendum by refusing to participate. They accuse the Islamist-dominated constituent assembly of drafting a charter that would threaten civil liberties by imposing a stricter interpretation of Islam. Liberals and Christians boycotted the constitution-drafting process. An opposition coalition is planning a march to President Morsi's Cairo office Tuesday to denounce his planned referendum and demand that he scrap the decree that granted him what they see as near-dictatorial powers. Mr. Morsi has promised to lift the decree once the public approves a new constitution in a referendum. Several independent Egyptian newspapers said they will join the protest by refusing to print their Tuesday editions.

Adding to the sense of crisis, Egypt's top court began an indefinite strike on Sunday, joining other courts that stopped work in recent days due to what they see as Mr. Morsi's assault on the judiciary. The judges of the Supreme Constitutional Court said they were afraid to approach their offices because thousands of Islamists had massed outside. The top court had been due to issue rulings that could have dissolved the constituent assembly and the upper house of parliament, also controlled by Islamists. The court's Islamist critics say it is biased against them because its judges were appointed by Hosni Mubarak, a longtime anti-Islamist president who was ousted last year in a popular uprising.

http://www.voanews.com/content/egypt...y/1556881.html

See also:

Egypt's crisis widens with planned march, strikes
Dec 3,`12 -- Egypt's political crisis is widening, with plans for a huge march and a general strike Tuesday to protest the hurried drafting of a new constitution and decrees by President Mohammed Morsi that gave him nearly unrestricted powers.

Morsi also faces the prospect of wider civil disobedience as media, the tourism industry and law professors pondered moves that would build on a strike by the nation's judges. The planned strikes and march raise new fears of unrest, threatening to derail the country's transition to democratic rule. "Egypt is a big ship in high seas, and no one should stop its captain from taking it to the shore," said Morsi's legal adviser, Mohammed Gaballah, defending his boss. "The ship must keep moving under any conditions," he told The Associated Press on Monday.

The country's judges have already gone on strike over Morsi's Nov. 22 decrees that placed him above oversight of any kind, including the courts. Following those decrees, a panel dominated by the president's Islamist supporters rushed through a draft constitution without the participation of representatives of liberals and Christians. Only four women, all Islamists, attended the marathon, all-night session. Morsi has called for a Dec. 15 national referendum to approve the constitution.

An opposition coalition dominated by the liberal and leftist groups that led last year's uprising had already called for a general strike Tuesday and a large demonstration against the constitutional process and Morsi's decrees. Newspapers plan to suspend publication, and privately owned TV networks will blacken their screens all day. Monday's front pages of Egypt's most prominent newspapers said, "No to dictatorship" on a black background, with a picture of a man wrapped in newspaper and with his feet shackled while he squatted in a prison cell.

Hotels and restaurants are considering turning off their lights for a half-hour to protest against Morsi, according to the Supporting Tourism Coalition, an independent body representing industry employees. Cairo University law professors petitioned their dean to let them stop teaching. "The professors believe they must not teach law under a regime that doesn't respect the law," said one of the professors, Khaled Abu Bakr.

MORE

supervise what? the referendum?

Don't you trust the judges to supervise it?

The schizophrenic anti Morsi protesters said the same last election that they didn't trust the judges, now a few months later they changed their minds and now all support the same Mubarak elected judges

Morsi agreed with them first time around and that's why he is cleansing the judiciary that the protesters originally demanded and the only way to do it is by the decree.

These protester don't know what they want

Hey Abu,...

Now Morsi is your new Pharaoh -- I guess you are quite excited, no?!

Egypt has become the laughing-stock of all humanity,

What a mess.

Granny says, "Well - guess dat puts the Mooslamic Brotherhood in the catbird seat...

Analysis: Egypt's Islamists tighten grip on power
Dec 23,`12 -- With the passage of a divisive constitution, Egypt's Islamist leadership has secured its tightest grip on power since Hosni Mubarak's ouster nearly two years ago and laid the foundation for legislation to create a more religious state.

The opposition's response - a vow to keep fighting the charter and the program of Islamist President Mohammed Morsi - ensured that the turmoil of the past two years will not end as many, especially the tens of millions of poor craving stability, had fervently hoped. "The referendum is not the end game. It is only a battle in this long struggle for the future of Egypt," the opposition National Salvation Front said in a strongly worded statement on Sunday. "We will not allow a change to the identity of Egypt or the return of the age of tyranny," added the front, which claims the new constitution seeks to enshrine Islamic rule in Egypt and accuses the Islamists of trying to monopolize power.

Critics say the new constitution does not sufficiently protect the rights of women and minority groups and empowers Muslim clerics by giving them a say over legislation. Some articles were also seen as tailored to get rid of Islamists' enemies and undermine the freedom of labor unions. Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's most powerful political organization in the post-Mubarak era, claimed early Sunday that the charter it had backed was approved in the two-stage vote with a 64 percent "yes" vote overall. Though official results will not be announced until Monday, there is little doubt they will confirm the passage. Once the official result is out, Morsi is expected to call for a new election of parliament's lawmaking lower house within two months.

And if all of the elections since Mubarak's February 2011 ouster are any predictor, Islamists will again emerge dominant. In the last parliamentary vote in late 2011, the Muslim Brotherhood and its allies the Salafis - ultraconservative Islamists - won about 70 percent of seats. If Islamists win the overwhelming majority again, there is nothing to stop their lawmakers from legislating in support of their longtime goal of turning Egypt into an Islamic state. The Salafis will likely seek to enlist the support of the less radical Brotherhood for legislation that would nudge Egypt closer to a religious state.

Khalil el-Anani, a British-based expert on Islamic groups, said the Salafis are likely to insist that every piece of legislation conforms with Islamic Shariah law, especially with regard to questions of morality, culture, personal freedoms and the nation's identity. "The Salafis will want the Brotherhood to reward them for their campaigning for the `yes' vote," said el-Anani. "The Brotherhood, meanwhile, will want to rebuild their image as a credible democratic group after a period in which it seemed in complete alignment with the Salafis."

MORE

See also:

Egypt opposition alleges vote fraud in referendum
Dec 23,`12 -- Egypt's opposition said Sunday it will keep fighting the Islamist-backed constitution after the Muslim Brotherhood, the main group backing the charter, claimed it passed with a 64 percent "yes" vote in a referendum.

The opposition alleged vote fraud and demanded an investigation - a sign that the referendum will not end the turmoil that has roiled this country for nearly two years since the uprising that ousted authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak. Many Egyptians, especially the tens of millions who live in extreme poverty, had hoped the new constitution might usher in a period of more stability. A heated political debate over the past month leading up to the referendum at times erupted into deadly street battles. There were no mass opposition demonstrations on Sunday after the unofficial results came out. Renewed violence and political tensions have further imperiled Egypt's already precarious economy, reeling from dwindling resources and a cash-strapped government whose plans to borrow from the International Monetary Fund had to be pushed back because of the turmoil.

The finance ministry said Sunday the budget deficit reached $13 billion in the five months from July-November, about 4.5 percent higher compared to the same period last year. Official results of the referendum are not expected until Monday. If the unofficial numbers are confirmed, it will be a victory Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, who is from the Brotherhood. But the opposition allegations look likely to prolong the fight. Beyond allegations of fraud, the opposition will likely challenge new laws issued on the basis of the constitution as well as Morsi's economic policies. "The referendum is not the end game. It is only a battle in this long struggle for the future of Egypt," said the National Salvation Front, the main opposition group. "We will not allow a change to the identity of Egypt or the return of the age of tyranny."

The opposition claims the new constitution seeks to enshrine Islamic rule in Egypt and accuses the Islamists of trying to monopolize power. Critics say it does not sufficiently protect the rights of women and minority groups and empowers Muslim clerics by giving them a say over legislation. Some articles were also seen as tailored to get rid of Islamists' enemies and undermine the freedom of labor unions. The latest political battle began with Morsi's Nov. 22 decrees that gave him powers to protect the Islamist-dominated panel writing the constitution and dismiss the country's top prosecutor, a holdover from the Mubarak era.

Although Morsi subsequently rescinded the powers that gave him immunity from judicial oversight, his decision to replace the prosecutor general was viewed by many in the judiciary as trampling over their powers. Hundreds of prosecutors held a rally Sunday demanding the new, Morsi-appointed prosecutor general quit, days after he retracted his resignation claiming it was rendered under pressure. The prosecutors said in a news conference that they will be on strike until he quits.

MORE