Thread: A new glance on the Arab spring

Dear members of the Forum,

My name is Danny, and I'm a history PhD student at Harvard University, originally from Israel. My speciality is military revolts and coup d'etats in modern Japan, China, Germany and the Middle East.

I would love to have you comment on an article I have recently written, based on a Hebrew version published in Ynet news. "The Arab Spring the the Art of Revolution" offers some reflections on the popular uprisings in Egypt, Syria and Libya, in light of theories of popular revolutions.

The Arab Spring and the Art of Revolution

The article is part of my "The Owl", a new blog specializing in Middle Eastern politics. I would be happy for your feedbacks and comments, both here and in the blog. A previous article deals with the hidden logic behind Israeli-Palestinian prisoner swaps.

A Bloody Transaction, or: Why one Israeli soldier is worth 1000 Palestinians?

Danny

One difference between Tunisia and Egypt and the others like Libya and Syria is Tunisia and Egypt were united in ridding ourselves of the dictator.
Libya and Syria are different. Their leaders have a lot of support.

In Egypt no one guessed that 25th would bring about his downfall. NO ONE! if they say they did they are lying.

25th morning and afternoon was about police and their brutality and Khalid Said. Nothing more.

25th evening it all changed.

It then became we can rid ourselves of this regime and the slogans went from Khalid and Mahalla to Bread-Freedom-Social Justice. Freedom was the main one where we challenged the state security apparatus and we saw its weaknesses and that led to 26th - 11th February.

Libya and Syria are not from the people. Thats more about outside influences.

The outside influences in Egypt were about controlling the situation and stopping its escalation to ousting their puppet.

I can also guarantee you that Egyptians have no love for Israel. You mention that in your article. Israel has brought our lands to chaos and there is nothing our people would love more than for it to be never created. I am sure the colonial powers also now feel the same but now have to deal with it's consequences and it's nuclear capability and mad scientist leadership.

Egypts army is made of the people from the people.
They are our children and brothers and sons.
The regime recruited the stupidest most ignrorant peasants to hold the kalashnikovs. The boys in black who knew no better and we all know that. That was why when they were beaten they were beaten to an extent then carried on shoulders of the beaters to hospital.
Other regimes like the Gulf arabs employ foreigners who have no problem shooting the locals and killing them. Like in Bahrain and Saudi etc. They recruit Pakistanis etc to do their dirty work for them, to keep their thrones. Just like in the old days in Europe when French employed German mercenaries to be paid to fight the English etc. No loyalty just money.

Also SCAF is not the army in Egypt. The boys in black are also not the army in Egypt.

There are plenty army waiting for the SCAF to be retired and in their graves.

In Egypt, however, the Mubarak regime did not enjoy the benefits of such a special force, and was therefore forced to rely on the regular army. It is perfectly reasonable that a resolute military action could have dispersed the demonstrators, at the price of a horrendous massacre. However, from the point of view of the army leadership, this was a gamble that they did not wish to take. Instead, they preferred to avoid the dilemma, and to preserve their enormous economic privileges, by giving Mubarak’s head on a platter to the angry crowds.

this is not true

You need to research more about the SCAF versus the Interior Ministry.
Research Gamal and SCAF.
Army economics.

Abu Sina,

Of course the regime had some loyal forces in Egypt as well, but nothing which can be compared to the revolutionary guard and the Basij in Ira, for example.

The fact that most Egyptian have no love for Israel, that is clear. As an Israeli, I have travelled in Egypt just before the revolution and saw that in person. However, the last thing that anyone wants in Israel is "chaos" in Egypt. One of the bane of Egyptian life is the belief in conspiracy theories, and the attempt to blame "foreigners", most of all Israelis, in the problems of the country. And no, we have sent no sharks to Sinai, believe me at that.

Clearly a great deal of time and effort went into your end results .
But to be candid ,I see your work as very populist and basically feeding back to people disparate pieces of news that have essentially already been fed to mainstream media for the last year and longer .
What you have not touched is an examination of the causes of the so called revolutions , both internally ( should not take long) and externally .
You need , for example , to examine theories which point to US and NATO pre planning of a very detail nature , over a period of several years .
You need to comment on what has happened and its relation --- if any --- to the apparent coincidence of it playing out as a close run of US Geo Political Strategy in action .
You need to show how mistaken it is to believe that the West is working , and is complicit, with Saudi Arabia to create a new Sunni Empire .
And that's just the tip of several icebergs , imho .

Unfortunately, your message resembles a conspiracy theory. It is time that Arab people will stop blaming the US/Israel in all of their troubles, and start looking instead to their own mistakes and failures. Nothing could be achieved by self pity and victimization. Even if NATO/US "planned" the uprisings, many Egyptians decided to risk their lives in the street day after day. That is, the attempt to point (as usual) to the western other is sterile and fruitless to my mind.

Originally Posted by raymondo

Clearly a great deal of time and effort went into your end results .
But to be candid ,I see your work as very populist and basically feeding back to people disparate pieces of news that have essentially already been fed to mainstream media for the last year and longer .
What you have not touched is an examination of the causes of the so called revolutions , both internally ( should not take long) and externally .
You need , for example , to examine theories which point to US and NATO pre planning of a very detail nature , over a period of several years .
You need to comment on what has happened and its relation --- if any --- to the apparent coincidence of it playing out as a close run of US Geo Political Strategy in action .
You need to show how mistaken it is to believe that the West is working , and is complicit, with Saudi Arabia to create a new Sunni Empire .
And that's just the tip of several icebergs , imho .

Originally Posted by dannyorbach

Unfortunately, your message resembles a conspiracy theory. It is time that Arab people will stop blaming the US/Israel in all of their troubles, and start looking instead to their own mistakes and failures. Nothing could be achieved by self pity and victimization. Even if NATO/US "planned" the uprisings, many Egyptians decided to risk their lives in the street day after day. That is, the attempt to point (as usual) to the western other is sterile and fruitless to my mind.

Another closed mind .
Many Americans would risk their lives tomorrow if there was a Muslim uprising in the US .As per Egypt et al .
Popular and easy journalism would describe it for us .
Investigative journalism would investigate causes .
Your answer is what we call a , Kop Out , over here .
We all know that many Egyptians decided blah blah blah , risked their lives etc
That is not the point .
The point is not to pre-judge whether certain parties did or did not behave in certain ways . The job is to determine facts and not airily announce that people not accepting Gov't reports are Conspiracy nuts .
Pathetic .

Well, some people will also say I am a closed mind because I don't believe in alien kidnappings. If you have good evidence, please bring them.

Originally Posted by dannyorbach

Well, some people will also say I am a closed mind because I don't believe in alien kidnappings. .

For God's sake say something witty or pointedly sarcastic or even rude .
But don't bring in Aliens unless you are competing for the Specious Post of the Month award .

It's a conspiracy not to think that the US, or one of its several arms is behind the revolutions.