Too late to halt Iran’s nuclear bomb, EU is told

DuH2 · #1 (**permalink**) 02-12-2007, 05:47 PM

Quote:

Iran will be able to develop enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear bomb and there is little that can be done to prevent it, an internal European Union document has concluded.

In an admission of the international community’s failure to hold back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the document – compiled by the staff of Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief – says the atomic programme has been delayed only by technical limitations rather than diplomatic pressure. “Attempts to engage the Iranian administration in a negotiating process have not so far succeeded,” it states.

The downbeat conclusions of the “reflection paper” – seen by the Financial Times – are certain to be seized on by advocates of military action, who fear that Iran will be able to produce enough fissile material for a bomb over the next two to three years. Tehran insists its purposes are purely peaceful.

“At some stage we must expect that Iran will acquire the capacity to enrich uranium on the scale required for a weapons programme,” says the paper, dated February 7 and circulated to the EU’s 27 national governments ahead of a foreign ministers meeting yesterday.

“In practice . . . the Iranians have pursued their programme at their own pace, the limiting factor being technical difficulties rather than resolutions by the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“The problems with Iran will not be resolved through economic sanctions alone.”

The admission is a blow to hopes that a deal with Iran can be reached and comes at a sensitive time, when tensions between the US and Tehran are rising. Its implication that sanctions will prove ineffective will also be unwelcome to EU diplomats. Only yesterday the bloc agreed on how to apply United Nations sanctions on Tehran, overcoming a dispute between Britain and Spain over Gibraltar.

Iran has set up several hundred centrifuges to enrich uranium, a process that can yield both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material. But analysts say that Iran is behind schedule on plans to install 3,000 centrifuges to produce enriched uranium on a larger scale.

Last year Ernst Uhrlau, the head of German intelligence, said Tehran would not be able to produce enough material for a nuclear bomb before 2010 and would only be able to make it into a weapon by about 2015.

The EU document is embarrassing for advocates of negotiations with Iran, since last year it was Mr Solana and his staff who spearheaded talks with Tehran on behalf of both the EU and the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The paper adds that Tehran’s rejection of the offer put forward by Mr Solana “makes it difficult to believe that, at least in the short run, [Iran] would be ready to establish the conditions for the resumption of negotiations”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ae2d5d24-bad...0779e2340.html

They have to be bluntly told in no unceratin terms that if they cross a specific line with their nuclear development it will result in military action and if as a result that ends in a general war..then so be it.

Still time..but the baby smacks on the hand need to stop.smack them upside the heads until they get the message... and make it clear at some point you'll close your hand and pick up a bat if they never do.

greatamerican128 · #2 (**permalink**) 02-15-2007, 12:12 PM

The European Union I believe in this incidence is 100% wrong, Iran can be stopped but it won't be with sanctions or negotiation.

nosider · #3 (**permalink**) 02-15-2007, 01:03 PM

If the United States were to declare war on Iran, it would simply move its nuclear supplies to an allied country, should defeat seem imminent, and hope that this other country would advance and spread the nuclear technology throughout the region, thus making the Middle East a nuclear "hot zone", and in turn force the US out of the region in order to prevent a nuclear war.

What the UN needs to do is not use all out war, or negotiations, but use a small group of soldiers to go incognito into Iran as scientists, or something along those lines, and have these people shut down the entire operations.

If terrorists organizations can sneak a few suicide pilots into the world's current superpower and deal a critical blow, what is there to stop the world's current superpower from doing the same thing to the terrorist organizations?

apotropoxy · #4 (**permalink**) 02-15-2007, 01:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuH2";p=&quot

Quote:

Iran will be able to develop enough weapons-grade material for a nuclear bomb and there is little that can be done to prevent it, an internal European Union document has concluded.

In an admission of the international community’s failure to hold back Iran’s nuclear ambitions, the document – compiled by the staff of Javier Solana, EU foreign policy chief – says the atomic programme has been delayed only by technical limitations rather than diplomatic pressure. “Attempts to engage the Iranian administration in a negotiating process have not so far succeeded,” it states.

The downbeat conclusions of the “reflection paper” – seen by the Financial Times – are certain to be seized on by advocates of military action, who fear that Iran will be able to produce enough fissile material for a bomb over the next two to three years. Tehran insists its purposes are purely peaceful.

“At some stage we must expect that Iran will acquire the capacity to enrich uranium on the scale required for a weapons programme,” says the paper, dated February 7 and circulated to the EU’s 27 national governments ahead of a foreign ministers meeting yesterday.

“In practice . . . the Iranians have pursued their programme at their own pace, the limiting factor being technical difficulties rather than resolutions by the UN or the International Atomic Energy Agency.

“The problems with Iran will not be resolved through economic sanctions alone.”

The admission is a blow to hopes that a deal with Iran can be reached and comes at a sensitive time, when tensions between the US and Tehran are rising. Its implication that sanctions will prove ineffective will also be unwelcome to EU diplomats. Only yesterday the bloc agreed on how to apply United Nations sanctions on Tehran, overcoming a dispute between Britain and Spain over Gibraltar.

Iran has set up several hundred centrifuges to enrich uranium, a process that can yield both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material. But analysts say that Iran is behind schedule on plans to install 3,000 centrifuges to produce enriched uranium on a larger scale.

Last year Ernst Uhrlau, the head of German intelligence, said Tehran would not be able to produce enough material for a nuclear bomb before 2010 and would only be able to make it into a weapon by about 2015.

The EU document is embarrassing for advocates of negotiations with Iran, since last year it was Mr Solana and his staff who spearheaded talks with Tehran on behalf of both the EU and the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

The paper adds that Tehran’s rejection of the offer put forward by Mr Solana “makes it difficult to believe that, at least in the short run, [Iran] would be ready to establish the conditions for the resumption of negotiations”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ae2d5d24-bad...0779e2340.html

They have to be bluntly told in no unceratin terms that if they cross a specific line with their nuclear development it will result in military action and if as a result that ends in a general war..then so be it.

Still time..but the baby smacks on the hand need to stop.smack them upside the heads until they get the message... and make it clear at some point you'll close your hand and pick up a bat if they never do.

Did you miss this part in the article you posted, Duh?

Quote:

Iran has set up several hundred centrifuges to enrich uranium, a process that can yield both nuclear fuel and weapons-grade material. But analysts say that Iran is behind schedule on plans to install 3,000 centrifuges to produce enriched uranium on a larger scale.

Last year Ernst Uhrlau, the head of German intelligence, said Tehran would not be able to produce enough material for a nuclear bomb before 2010 and would only be able to make it into a weapon by about 2015.

Worry not, D.
The War Criminal-In-Chief is using those old shaped charged explosive devices which have been killing our GIs for the last three years as his pretext to attack Persia. You won't have to wait long.
The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, informed the world last week that American interests around the world will be targeted if we attack his country.
You are a GloryWarrior and are welcomed to enlist in Bush the Lame's "long war."

DuH2 · #5 (**permalink**) 02-15-2007, 03:45 PM

Oh so Iran which lied about is nuclear program is to be trusted?
...and your other defense is we won't have to worry about them nuking us unitl 2010-2015 even though the timeline varies between 3 and 10 years?

apotropoxy · #6 (**permalink**) 02-15-2007, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DuH2";p=&quot

Oh so Iran which lied about is nuclear program is to be trusted?

No country is to be trusted. They all act in what they perceive to be their own best interest.

Quote:

...and your other defense is we won't have to worry about them nuking us unitl 2010-2015 even though the timeline varies between 3 and 10 years?

1. The time-line indicates that there is no imminent threat, just the possibility of trouble.

2. There are two simple reasons Iran will never attack the USA:

a) Everyone knows we would react with overwhelming vengeance. An attack by the USA would clobber their economy.
b) We are a large and attractive economy with an addiction to oil. War disrupts oil sales.

3. Iran will only attack if they are attacked. They have far too much to lose by launching a preemptive war. Thay would lose leadership standing in the Muslim world. Things are going very well for them just now. Their neighbor enemy, Iraq, is returning to Shi'ite majority control.

4. Iran is in the process of cultural transition. They want nukes to counter the Israeli bomb. Can you blame them?

When we attack Persia they will respond in a variety of ways and at times of their choosing. We should assume that these mechanisms are already in place. I would not want to be living near an U.S. embassy or other soft target outside our boarders. Nor would I like to be living in Tel Aviv should we decide to escalate beyond a few days of bombing.

#7 (**permalink**) 02-16-2007, 01:12 AM

it was in the news that iran needed at *least* 10 years before they would be capable of producing a nuclear weapon.. this is bukakae and an excuse to start wwiii ;\

Kate25 · #8 (**permalink**) 02-16-2007, 06:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by meltingplastic";p=&quot

it was in the news that iran needed at *least* 10 years before they would be capable of producing a nuclear weapon.. this is bukakae and an excuse to start wwiii ;\

What the hell is "bukakae"? And who can guarantee that it will take them 10 years?

Pakistan surprised the whole world when they announced they built a bomb. Who's to say the Iranians aren't moving ahead faster than anyone currently believes?

apotropoxy · #9 (**permalink**) 02-16-2007, 07:21 AM

Quote:

Pakistan surprised the whole world when they announced they built a bomb.

I don't think that announcement surprised too many observers.

Quote:

Who's to say the Iranians aren't moving ahead faster than anyone currently believes?

Iran needs a nuke. They live in a very dangerous neighborhood. If the rest of the Middle East would disarm then Iran might be persuaded to stop this development but Israel will never do it.

hobo · #10 (**permalink**) 02-16-2007, 07:53 AM

Let's see, we could start a war in Iran. With US troops fighting to a stalemate in two countries in the Middle East already, somehow I am not too optimistic about this solution.

We could negotiate an oil for nukes agreement like North Korea - but then Iran already has oil... so we would have to to give them a million tons of something else. Let's see, maybe Big Macs, or Levis Jeans?

We could use nuclear weapons in a surprise strike and hope that we hit all of the locations that are producing enriched uranium. Somehow using nuclear weapons to STOP nuclear weapons is kind of violates common sense. It just doesn't seem right.

So the only solution that works is for Israel to "take care of the situation", whatever that means. It seems to be a favorite alternative for a lot of people. After all, Israel handled Iran's nukes once before. Humm, but the problem is back again...guess Israel only delayed the process.

Bottom line, we aren't going to do squat about Iran and its nukes...anymore than we are going to do anything to Pakistan, North Korea, or any other country that gains that technology. Why? Because we are not dictator of the world. Not until we collectively decide to play Julius Caesar and the Roman Empire (or Genghis Khan and the Mongol hoards) are we going to be able to deal with these kinds of problems.

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