In the last two days war has broken out in South Waziristan, Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan. Yesterday a group of about 200 fighters stormed a military fort, achieving a decisive victory. Today fighting continued as pro-Taliban militants forced the army out of yet another fort. This is open military conflict:

South Waziristan is a known stronghold of pro-Taleban and al-Qaeda militants. The region has been at the centre of fighting between the army and militants in recent months. Correspondents say the militants are now openly challenging the army in the area bordering Afghanistan. They are eroding confidence in the government's ability to ensure stability for elections due next month that are meant to complete a transition to civilian rule.

War in Waziristan is not the only menace to Pakistan's quickly vanishing cohesion. Today, as Pakistani Shi'a prepare to celebrate their Ashoura holiday, a bomb attack in a Shi'a mosque in Peshawar killed at least seven people. The Shi'a community reacted instantly with protests expressing sadness and outrage, and some observers fear Shi'a militants will seek revenge.

Fears of sectarian violence have added to tensions in Pakistan, where suspected Islamic militants have launched a wave of suicide blasts against security forces and politicians in recent months as the nation gears up for crucial parliamentary elections Feb. 18.

Musharraf's government is in trouble. If the Pakistani Army is, as Barnett Rubin argues, "not just a defense organization but Pakistan's ruling party, controlling all branches of government," then Pakistan's ruling party is coming apart at the seams. Worries about electoral chaos pale in comparison to the rising possibility of civil war.
Simultaneously, the Taliban's power is on the rise. With recent attacks in Kabul and threats of more from the Taliban, the militia and its allies appear to be giving not one, but two governments a very hard time.
I fear that all this chaos will create a greater and greater vortex, threatening to suck American forces into Pakistan's conflicts, just as our chances of success in Afghanistan are looking more and more remote each day.
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