The latest Des Moines Register poll shows a widening lead for Barack Obama, and will be the last poll released by the Register before the Iowa Caucus. It is undoubtedly good news for the Obama campaign, but it is also a cautionary tale. AT THIS TIME IN 2004, Howard Dean was polling number one. By caucus night, he came in a dismal third place and was out of the race little more than a month later.
Obama's situation is much the same. Obama's support is what's known in campaign circles as "soft support." His supporters are mostly under 35, the group that is most likely not to caucus. On the other hand, Edwards has the advantage of older, repeat supporters. Hillary has an advantage too, because her supporters tend to be older women, the most likely and most plentiful type of supporter in Iowa.
I predict that Obama will do very well, but Hillary and Edwards will most likely be first and second.
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