Think back, for a moment, to a few months ago. The Republicans were in disarray, McCain was practically out of money and out of the race. Giuliani, the national frontrunner was being "swiftboated" by New York firefighters and the alternatives were definitely, shall we say, alternative.
Indeed it seemed that the Republican field was so weak that the Democrats could elect their party mascot, a donkey, and they still would win the general.
Today whilst Hilary and Obama are locked in a battle that looks like it could go all the way to the convention in August. John McCain seems almost certain to gain his party's nomination - and currently both Obama and Hilary are trailing him in the polls.
The reasons for this are clear. Obama has been inspiring a broad section of people with an intoxicating message of hope and change whilst saying as little as possible of any substance in order to avoid controversy and breaking any fault lines.
Hilary on the other hand, ever the more consummate politician has lead a focused campaign, concentrating on specific groups where she is likely to gain support and perhaps, as was pointed out in the Post by Richard Cohen, occasionally being guilty of a little pandering.
In short it looks as if Hilary will say anything and Obama will say nothing. Both approaches fail against the maverick McCain as many moderate voters will be more attracted to a candidate who campaigns strongly for what they believe in, rather than for what they believe will get them elected. To see this one only has to look at McCain's current poll numbers. McCain dominates the anti-war vote in the Republican primaries despite the presence of a genuine anti-war candidate in Ron Paul and McCain's recent comments about staying in Iraq for 100 years.

McCain's strength, his authentic and direct style, plays perfectly against the nebulous rhetoric of Obama and the politicking of Clinton.
But all candidates, including McCain have their weaknesses and are beatable. In the Senator from Arizona's case, his weakness is the economy, and in order to beat him both Hilary and Obama have to make a strong stand on this issue. Campaigning on change and the war will simply not work against a former war hero who has a bi-partizan record in Congress like no other. Furthermore the electorate needs to see the Democrats take on a issue and fight for it. To have some passion and conviction and not be the same party that folded on so many issues during the Bush administration.
A McCain presidency would be a disaster for the economy. The extension of the Bush tax cuts would leave a huge hole in the budget, and McCain's proposed remedy, earmark reform, will have little or no effect. The consequences of this will be to drive the United States further into debt and further undermine the dollar. As the dollar falls, the price of imported goods rises and the conditions of the working poor decline further as they see their purchasing power decline. The commitments to tax cuts and a strong foreign policy at the same time will necessarily lead to cuts in social programs that will aggravate income inequality a lead to greater levels of poverty.
Fixing the huge budget deficits left by the Bush administration has to be done, but it may require some painful changes, such as raising taxes or cutting spending on the military. Although universal healthcare may be unpopular in some quarters, it is literally a question of life and death for many Americans. Introducing it will also be of great benefit to small business, who struggle to pay the healthcare costs of their employees. Democrats should not be scared on campaigning hard on the economy even if it raises some uncomfortable issues, because it is an issue that they can beat McCain on comfortably.
Against all earlier predictions the Republican Party are about to pick a formidable opponent. An opponent that could beat either of the two Democratic candidates. Now Democrats must start looking forward to the general election in order to beat him, and start fighting with conviction and vision. A change is now guaranteed, and we have to start talking about what that change will mean.
George Turner is a video journalist based in Washington DC. He holds an MA in international affairs from the Johns Hopkins University and is generally interested in the intersection of world politics and economics. Originally from London, England, he is currently hoping that George Bush passes immigration reform before the summer so that he can stay in the States past July. He can be contacted at george@madisonfilm.com and you can watch George's latest videos on www.vimeo.com/georgeturner
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