The worst kept secret in the world of international affairs right now is that Kosovo will declare independence on Sunday February 17th. It has been widely reported in the press with details such as the fireworks display to follow the declaration in Pristina being made public. The EU has announced that its mission of 1,800 police and judges that was to be sent to the country to help with the transition will start arriving on Saturday. Sorren Jessen-Petersen, the former head of the UN Mission in Kosovo said last night in Washington that despite the legal difficulties facing a unilateral declaration of independence, independence was both inevitable and a reality that had to be acknowledged.
In the immediate aftermath, the independence of Kosovo is set to be recognized by 20 European Countries and the US. Of course Russia has been the most vocal critic of the idea and will block Kosovo’s entrance to the UN. Serbia has made noises that it could make life difficult for the Kosovars by cutting off electricity and sealing the border but it is unclear as to whether they would follow through on these threats.

Legally and diplomatically, the situation in Kosovo has become an almighty mess. The early statements by the US administration that they favored independence as a solution gave Serbia and Russia the impression that the negotiations over the status of the province were held in bad faith and futile. The previous behavior of the West at the Rabouillet conference where the Serbs were presented with a plan that was purposely designed to be unacceptable to them and their rejection a pretense for war further added to a lack of trust between the parties.
The acrimony between the US and Russia over the issue means that the UN will not be involved in the independence of Kosovo and the legal foundations for Western support for the country are unclear.
Furthermore the fallout from the dispute between the two security council powers will likely last for many months, Jessen-Petersen also said last night that he expects Kosovo’s independence to freeze the security council in the near future and to forget about any agreement on Burma soon.
John Bolton, Lawrence Eagleburger and Peter Rodman, writing in the Washington Times last week stressed that independence for Kosovo could destabilise many parts of the world dealing with separatist regions and that the Basque in Spain and the Turks in Cyprus have already been citing the “Kosovo model� as a solution to their particular conflicts.
In Kosovo, the US and its allies have handled the situation extremely badly and not because of the outcome for the province. In the end, everyone realized that something had to be done, the current situation is unsustainable. No mater how many more years of negotiation the parties embarked upon, Serbia would never accept independence for Kosovo and the Kosovo Albanians would never accept staying in the same country.
But despite whatever historical cultural or legal arguments Serbia can come up with as to why Kosovo should remain within Serbia, it has to be recognized that 90% of the people of province are ethnic Albanians, none of whom what to continue living within Serbia. Kosovo held a referendum in 1992 with an 80% turnout giving a 98% preference for independence. The bloody war that was launched since then to completely destroy the Muslim heritage in the province has meant that any possibility that the Kosovars would wish to stay in Serbia is unfeasible.
However the fallout and the messy ending to the status of Kosovo was avoidable, and for this we ourselves can take a large part of the blame. It highlights the difficulties faced when we self righteously partake in international negotiations and international institutions with the singular mission of making everybody else legitimize our point of view. It happened in the run up to the Iraq war and it is happening again now. But thankfully this time the consequences are likely to be no where near as serious, and its cause far more just.
George Turner is a video journalist based in Washington DC. He holds an MA in international affairs from the Johns Hopkins University and is generally interested in the intersection of world politics and economics. Originally from London, England, he is currently hoping that George Bush passes immigration reform before the summer so that he can stay in the States past July. He can be contacted at george@madisonfilm.com and you can watch George's latest videos on www.vimeo.com/georgeturner
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Yay. Good for them.

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