I should never flip the dial to MSNBC when Chris Matthews is on because he's insane, butÂ(*)alas, I occasionally do.
Today Matthews is trying to figure out which way John McCain should play the radical right: should he pander to them to get their votes, or triangulate against them to get moderate votes? Here's his math:

I think McCain can pick up three votes for very vote he loses on the right, because I think you're right, the right will vote and I also think those suburbs are looking for a candidate still. That's why we keep hearing about Bloomberg.
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"Matthews math" is interesting because it's the complete opposite of "Rove Math." Rove's formula for winning elections is to fire up the rightwing base to a fever pitch so they turn out in overwhelming numbers and crush the Democrats. Rove couldn't care less about voters in the middle because he just doesn't think there are very many.
"Rove math" worked in 2004, thanks in part to gay marriage referenda in 13 states (including the decisive state of Ohio) that fired up the rightwing base. "Rove math" did not work in 2006 because the rightwing base was demoralized by Iraq, Katrina,Â(*)and GOP corruption, epitomized by the Duke Cunningham and Mark Foley scandals.
 


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