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Old 03-07-2008, 04:10 PM
SeminalBlog SeminalBlog is offline
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Default The Math

So where do we actually stand at this point? I've compiled a list of the pledged delegates that are at stake for the rest of the Democratic race, and assigned margins: Strong Obama (65/35 victory), Obama (55/45 victory), Toss-up (50/50), and the converse for Senator Clinton. Now, this is certainly a generalization, since a good amount of delegates are decided by percentages within congressional districts, but this should give me a good ballpark estimate.

State#DelMarginGain/LossWyoming12Strong ObamaObama +4Mississippi33Strong ObamaObama + 9Pennsylvania158ClintonClinton +15Guam4ObamaWashIndiana72Toss-upWashNorth Carolina115ObamaObama +11West Virginia28Strong ClintonClinton +8Kentucky51Strong ClintonClinton +16Oregon52Strong ObamaObama +16Puerto Rico55Strong ClintonClinton +18Montana16Strong ObamaObama +4South Dakota15Strong ObamaObama +3So even with this pretty generous scenario for Hillary Clinton, her net gain is ten pledged delegates. If this were to play out like this, using CNN's current pledged delegate tally of 1321-1186, Obama would maintain a lead of 125 pledged delegates.
But wait! Let's say they organize caucuses in both Florida and Michigan, and Hillary blasts through
them with 60/40 margins.
Florida185Clinton 60/40Clinton +37Michigan128Clinton 60/40Clinton +26That knocks Barack's pledged delegate margin from 125 to 62. I simply don't think that's close enough for her to properly justify taking it with the superdelegates but even if she could, would she be able to? Her current superdelegate advantage is +39 (according to CNN), which means she'd have to wrangle a +24 or better advantage in the remaining 357 superdelegates (437 have currently endorsed).
Now, I see that as being more possible, but if she goes into the convention trailing by more that 50 pledged delegates, I don't think the superdelegates will overwhelming sway to her
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