Evening Open Thread: Delegates and Coattails

[SeminalBlog]

Chris Bowers is convinced we’re headed to the convention:

In other words, a close look at the delegate math indicates that there is a good chance we will either head to the convention without a presumptive nominee, or head to the convention with a barely presumptive nominee. At the very least, we are headed all the way through June. A question we might want to start asking is how many delegates Obama needs to have in order to get Clinton to concede before the convention in either June or July. Personally, I don’t think that number is 2,208, since they will almost certainly believe they can flip a handful of superdelegates. The actual number might be something like 2,240 or even higher, which would make the delegate flipping task virtually impossible. Other than losing a state like Pennsylvania or Florida, such an enormous delegate total strikes me as just about the only way Clinton will concede before the convention. If you have noticed anything else in her campaign behavior up until this point that indicates otherwise, I think we are watching different nomination campaigns.

As I’ve pointed out before, that’s a bad outcome and something that (hopefully) can be avoided.
If this primary does go down that road, Michigan and Florida are going to become really important. Despite objections of some pretty high-ranking people, the re-vote plan is moving forward.
If Obama does win, though, silver spring is pointing to some startling maps. Obama seems to have huge coattails, which means if you care about getting a 60 vote majority in the Senate next year, perhaps you should think carefully about who you vote for.
The primary season is far from over, it seems. What’s on your mind tonight?
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