strange in 97 or 98 a Russian academic Igor Panarin predicted we would collapse in 09. now that Osama is here he moved it up to this year. same prediction from Canada

source link to the wall street journal

is Osama another Gorbachev ????

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it's Osama's Fault !!!!!

I do not recall that prognostication, but it is close to 20% when you consider all the folk who have given up or taken part time work.

I think more blame goes to the last two years democrat Congress than Bush..

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“The only difference between death and taxes is that death doesn't get worse every time Congress meets.” – Will Rogers

Then you are using selective evidence. The massive bleeding that had us heading into true and devestating depression has been staunched. There is still much that needs to happen to keep from a serious dbl. dip, but we can count on the rightys to fight to the end to deny us any recovery.

1) True.
2) Not true.

So the speculative bubble was because of "artificial" low interest rates, but the market panic which we have despite having much LOWER interest rates is because of "natural correction".

And so, despite your claim that it was these "artificial low" interest rates that caused the speculative bubble, you must concede that they have little effect now and that "natural" forces are really what are driving the market. But these "natural" forces according to you had little effect on the speculative bubble.

And these low "artificially" low interest rates which permeate thru the entire economy somehow only really affected this one part of the economy, and didn't cause hyperinflation.

Sorry. Makes no sense, except as simplistic scapegoating effort.

If low interest rates caused the higher prices, they'd be even higher now.

There is no contradiction in policy because as I have show, your very explanation of the problem that is a faulty contradiction, and I can't be any clearer, friend.

In other words, make the taxes like the bad old days of the 1950s and 1960s, when the "greatest generation" paid 91% top tax rate to pay down an even relatively higher debt after world war two?

I don't believe you are reading what I said, but I will respond once more as if you did. Let's go step by step.

Yes, precisely. People were spending money they shouldn't have had in places where that money shouldn't have gone, and this was encouraged (which is really a weaker word that I can think of now) by those interests rates.

The market panic is the correction to the problem. This is an important thing you must understand. There is so much debt and mal-investment that has been shoved down our throats over the last 30 years that, yes, despite the attempts to lower interest rates further, the economy has finally said, "ENOUGH! This false prosperity cannot continue!" and is not letting the interest rates do their damage. It's like if you drank red bull all night. You would think you are wide awake for all night, and maybe even into a good portion of the next day - but sooner or later, no matter how much red bull you drink, you will be so overwhelmed by lack of sleep that you will collapse. I hope that analogy clears up your confusion.

The natural forces did not have the power they do now because that bad debt was not there in such an abundance. The reason these forces are so powerful and demanding a recession is because of the fantasy land we lived in for the whole decade. Think red bull again. It's 11am and you've pulled an all nighter. You get really tired, but open another can (this is like the stock market crash). In about 15 minutes you're on your feet again and doing stuff. But an hour or so later you feel even more tired than before. You try to drink 3 more cans of red bull, but it doesn't seem to be working anymore. You're simply too tired...well in our economy there is simply too much debt for any artificial interest rates to trick us into thinking we are a rich country. The solution is too go to bed. The solution is the recession. Will it hurt? Yes, duh. But is it the right thing? Unfortunately yes. Drinking 20 cans of red bull now, which is what the fed wants to do (they want interest rates lower than 0%!) is failing to see the problem.

Ever wonder why health care is too expensive? How about education? How about gas prices? Hmmm...hyperinflation? Just wait, my friend.

In a free market YES they (the rates) would, and they would've gone up a LOT earlier. But we don't live in a free market. This is the problem.

It begs the question, too. If low interest rates caused the problem, then why in the world would the fed want to push them lower...hmmm. I can only speculate, but that's another story.

Heroin overdose is not the cure for a heroin addict. My argument is as simple as that. I'm open to being wrong, though. Where is the contradiction?

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"All that exists is One. People only call this One by different names". - VEDAS

"War is so unjust and ugly that all who wage it must try to stifle the voice of conscience within themselves." - TOLSTOY

bump.................

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"All that exists is One. People only call this One by different names". - VEDAS

"War is so unjust and ugly that all who wage it must try to stifle the voice of conscience within themselves." - TOLSTOY

What does that have to do with nationalization of retirement savings and the destruction of wealth?

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“Some writers have so confounded society with government as to leave little or no distinction between them ... [Yet s]ociety is produced by our wants, and government by our wickedness.” - Thomas Paine, Common Sense

"Bleeding head good. Healed head bad."

Nothing.
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bump.........

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"All that exists is One. People only call this One by different names". - VEDAS

"War is so unjust and ugly that all who wage it must try to stifle the voice of conscience within themselves." - TOLSTOY