Put yourself in Iran's position right now. What's your play? They have allied themselves with Venezuela, Russia, China, and of course Syria. They have, by some accounts already purchased some nukes from North Korea, and currently, they have manipulated world opinion against Israel.

But what's your play? If it is your goal to destroy Israel and the influence of the United States, what is your play?

Obviously, a terrorist strike with a nuke could be accomplished by proxy, thru Hamas or Hezbollah... Iran would claim they had nothing to do with it, but none of the principle players would believe them, and the United States and Israel would be allowed to dethrone Abudamenajadathehut.

Sectarians could use a WMD against American forces in Iraq or Afghanistan, but the response by the United States would be swift and vengeful.

No, you have to strike with the world on your side, at least in the mind of Iran. It's the only way to protect yourself.

So what are they doing? The big anti-US meeting in Cuba, the UN, and now with support from France swinging behind the support from Russia and China, they have to feel good about the direction they are headed.

Plus, it's an Islamic principle to give your enemy every chance to surrender before attacking. They are doing what we should try to do more often, and that is to give the impression that they have exhausted every avenue of diplomacy.

But I think they have to press the advantage. The United States is too good at diplomacy to wait 10 years. Another guy will be president. The US military in Iraq would eventually get free and consolidate its resources. We'll make nice with the UN and the US economy is needed by China and Russia more than they need Iran. They are opposing us because of what they see as American hegemony, not because they share Islamic values with Iran.

Right now, Russia and China might try to defend Iran from American aggression they see as over the top. 4 - 6 or 10 years from now? They might not care.

The Iranians aren't stupid. They play the world game pretty well. I think they have to press the advantage if they truly want a world ruled by Islamic law, and I do believe they do. It's their undoing in my opinion. There is no viable option for them that would succeed in Islam defeating the west, but I think they will make the mistake of trying.

They just need it to work out in such a way that they will be able to blame George W. Bush for the event. Whatever it is. Bush and Israel. Both of them need the blame and Israel has already shown it can be provoked into a conflict.

The first thing they will try is to publicly enrich uranium. The world has come to the conclusion, and Iran has won the argument that they are entitled to nuclear power. If Israel or the United States attacks, it will all be Bush and Israel's fault.

The second thing, if the first doesn't provoke us, will be to publicly test a nuclear weapon. This will be preceded by arguments about Israel and the United States nuclear power. (Abujadhoochiemama made the argument this week and at the UN as well) This will probably take another 6 months to a year to convince the world they are entitled to nuclear arms and thereby blame Israel and Bush for attacking.

Especially in the first scenario, the world will try to keep Israel and the US from bombing Iran, and will condemn us if we do. Conveniently, the "muslim world" ie... Hezbollah & Al Queda will unleash WMD in Israel and the US because the evil Zionists and George Bush are waging a war against Islam by attacking Iran.

Regardless, the attack is coming through Hezbollah from the south (they are in South America in large numbers... with support from Chavez lately) and Al Queda.

But I think they'll dare us to "start" it. Keeps them in the clear.

That would be my play.

If I was a murderous-pyschotic-freak-of-a-president-zealot-of-Iran kinda guy. Which I'm not, but.... I have played the part of Satan 75 times. (counting practices...)

__________________
www.theradioprogram.com

while watching the painfully slow meltdown that is iraq

and wait for our publc to come to its senses, elect non-neocons. who will then declare victory simultaneous with withdrawal from the region

or not

__________________
"Be who you are and say what you feel because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind."
-Dr Seuss
You should have heard what i meant to say (apologies to Thelonious Monk)
"The police are not here to cause disorder....
...The police are here to preserve disorder."
Hon. Richard J. Daley
Chicago, 1968

The play is to continue doing exactly what you're doing, until you're able to achieve some significant capability.

In the eyes of the Iranian regime, what they're doing probably seems to be succeeding, so why change?

I really don't believe that the idea of "sanctions" is going to serve as a significant deterrent, especially since by the time sanctions get through the UN, they'll be so watered down that they'll be essentially meaningless.

If the Iranians keep doing what they're doing, they'll be able to strengthen their international alliances with folks like China and Venezuela, and those are some pretty powerful allies. Continue to make China increasingly dependent on your oil, and continue building influence and relationships with Chavez and people like him, and the end result will be a powerful coalition of anti-US sentiment.

And ultimately, weakening the US weakens Israel too (unless the Israelis get a lot smarter than they've been recently).

Keep in mind, that the Persians invented chess.

Won't work, because the military force in Iraq is growing and will continue to grow for the next 2 years and will eventually overpower the secular fighting.

Look at what is happening today, nothing more than car bombs and IED's. There was a time when the insurgency would attack and overtake a police station, or secure sections of a city. That isn't happening anymore. Iran has been undermining things through secular violence, but time will do nothing but help Iraq stabilize.

Sorry. That's not the anti-neocon thing that is the latest rage, but that's the way I see it.

__________________
www.theradioprogram.com

Thus I think Iran has a window of opportunity to achieve the destruction of Israel.

__________________
www.theradioprogram.com

I don't think they'll change, but if their goal is the destruction of Israel and America, then they have to make a move eventually. The ideal move for them, would be to condition world opinion so it is biased against the United States and Israel. They're in a great position right now as far as that goes.

Second, once in that position, it would be ideal for them if they could make a move in such a way as the blame would fall on Israel and America. Thus... get us to start it. They already tried it once when they announced and made a big show of enriching uranium to a point. They'll do it again soon so there will be no question they can build a bomb tomorrow. They are daring Israel or the US to strike so they can strike back through their terrorist proxies and claim

1. "We had nothing to do with it!"
2. "It was George Bush and the Zionists who inflamed the Muslim World and it is beyond our control!"

Their next move is to prove they can make a bomb. If no one attacks at that point, they'll test one. IMO.

I think you're absolutely right.

I think that's been their strategy, but it seems to me they have a window of opportunity to strike at Israel and the US (through terrorism) so that even if it is traced to them, they will say they simply could not control the anger of the muslim world.

Wait too long, and the anger against Bush and Israel might wane. Especially when the US gets another president in a few years.
Very true. And a huge terrorist strike would indeed weaken the US to the point of possibly hurting the economy badly enough that (like Russia) we would no longer be able to project our military power abroad.

__________________
www.theradioprogram.com

Keep screwing with America and Israel. Iran knows America can't do anything because of being tied down in Iraq, a war too unpopular to permit another U.S. misadventure. Iran also knows the U.S. won't allow Israel to take action, again, due to Bush-Wrecker-of-World's image as a war-monger. SO......if you're Iran, you just keep laughing your arse off while teasing The Larger-than-Life Paper Tiger -- America. Even the Jews lack influence here. But heck....I bet if we dig deeply enough, we'll find a Jew somewhere in the scenario, SELLING fissionable material to the Iraneans.

__________________
Kick'm in the frig'n nuts.

Actually I'd like to know America's next move.

__________________
Welcome to Machine
"Pay me, pay me, pay me my money now. Pay me or go to jail, pay me my money now!"

Yes, what will America do. Any takers for sending us into another war? We could create an American arabia out of Afghanistan, Iran & Iraq... perhaps bring in a NAFTA highway (of course we'd change it to just read AAFTA - Arab American Free Trade Association) for free trade of U.S. products. That would be fun...

__________________
"If life were fair, Elvis would be alive and all the
impersonators would be dead.
-- Johnny Carson

It's my belief that America had the desire to crush all countries who wish to change their oil purchasing currency to Euro instead of Dollar. If you'd notice, all such countries are on the list of "terrorist states". America's economy will collapse if it doesn't invade Iran. And it will, mark my words.

__________________
Welcome to Machine
"Pay me, pay me, pay me my money now. Pay me or go to jail, pay me my money now!"