Lest anyone accuse me of waiting 6 months before I take a stand, I'll say it now: the surge won't work. Even kagan and McCain expressed the need for many more troops than 20,000. McCain seems to be giving himself wiggle room to be able to criticize the surge plan at a later date.

But the primary reason it cannot work is this: The only way to catch the perpetrators of violence in Iraq is to have civilian cooperation (as well as that of the government). The only way that civilians will identify and hand over the perpetrators are if they are more afraid of the U.S. military than they are of their own militias. This method was used by Alexander the Great, Ghenghis Khan and the Romans: surrender completely and become a citizen; resist and face mass slaughter. Yes, I imagine the U.S. could achieve pacification by using the methods used by Saddam.