Thread: Are Oil Companies manipulating gas prices again for the Election?

First gas prices were unnaturally high for a very long time in spite of less usage and more drilling.
Now, suddenly, six months before the election gas prices are plummeting for no logical reason.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the corrupt oil companies were keeping prices artificially high as long as they thought they could get away with to hurt Obama, and now that it's getting close to the election they lower the price so that the Republicans' connections with the oil industry won't be used against Romney in the election.

These sorts of price increases and drops happen every single election, yet people pretend that there is no manipulation going on by the oil terrorists. I say it's beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Originally Posted by CarlB

First gas prices were unnaturally high for a very long time in spite of less usage and more drilling.
Now, suddenly, six months before the election gas prices are plummeting for no logical reason.

It seems pretty obvious to me that the corrupt oil companies were keeping prices artificially high as long as they thought they could get away with to hurt Obama, and now that it's getting close to the election they lower the price so that the Republicans' connections with the oil industry won't be used against Romney in the election.

These sorts of price increases and drops happen every single election, yet people pretend that there is no manipulation going on by the oil terrorists. I say it's beyond a shadow of a doubt.

Nope.. you'd be wrong.. There is a glut of natural gas.

That has nothing to do with what I posted. Try reading past the headline.

Originally Posted by CarlB

That has nothing to do with what I posted. Try reading past the headline.

There is a lot of domestic activity in gas and oil..

Oil prices are being driven by a desire to break Iran by lowering the ppb.

But gas is everywhere these days.

Its not a conspiracy and its not related to Obama.

Lower gasoline prices benefit Obama, not Romney.

Originally Posted by FrankCapua

Lower gasoline prices benefit Obama, not Romney.

I saw a chart somewhere over a period of 30 years how the president's approval rating was directly related to the price of gasoline.

Again, read what I wrote. Gas prices stayed very high long after oil prices decreased, this was with out of pure greed, or to hurt Obama.

Now gas prices are suddenly falling for no reason 6 months before the election, and if you look back through recent history you'll see that high gas prices always fall before elections. Logically we must surmise that it is to prevent people from voting against the Gas and Oil Party (GOP).

Saudi Arabia, the second largest oil producer has decided to keep pumping instead of lowing production even with oil prices per barrel dropping, allegedly to fuel world growth.

Saudi Arabia Won’t Cut Oil Output This Summer, Paper Says

There is already some speculation that the President could make a deal with Saudi Arabia to keep production up near it's capacity and nearing it's 1980s high. Of course, lower prices could spur higher demand which would bring prices up and if OPEC decided to lower production, prices could easily jump back up to $100 a barrel, maybe just after November.

I'm pretty sure oil speculators have a lot to do with the price drop of crude and gas. Didnt Obama mention few times in March of this year that he was going to hamstring rampant oil speculation. It seems to me that regulation of speculation would be the easiest fastest way to lower gas prices in the short term.

Volatility in markets leads to dramatic swings that do not match fundamentals. Derivative contracts, futures options & swaps, allowed speculators to profit on arbitrage opportunities. Speculation in these markets helped facilitate a surge in retail oil prices in the Spring.

Asset markets are vulnerable to speculative bubbles. Following the Housing Crisis, we saw a surge in commodity prices.

The U.S. is divided into five oil districts. On the East Coast, supplies traditionally derived from West Africa & Europe. Surging Brent Crude Prices forced East Coast refineries to bear larger procurement costs.

The West Coast similarly pays Crude Prices, which surged since 2011. Access to cheap oil, from North Dakota Bakken and Canada's Tar Sands, was afforded to Midwest refineries.

The transportation of oil across America is lacking the necessary infrastructure. Consumers are therefore vulnerable to price shocks and certain macroeconomic factors. The following were, in my opinion, the cause of price surges.

(1) Refiner Profits

Aforementioned, but in the Fall of 2011- Refiners were taking low profit margins on Crude. Began taking higher profits in the Spring. Ultimately, the lack of Refinaries on the East Coast is a major cause for concern.

(2) Middle Eastern Tensions

Fear of blockage to the Hormuz Strait is largely priced into cost. While Iran's threats did cause a degree of speculation, the tensions in Libya took certain supply out of the global trade. Furthermore, the isolation of Iran (over 3.0 Million BPD) further hurt the supply side of the equation. Roughly 66.7 Million BPD are traded to facilitate 88 million BPD of consumption. Reducing supply always causes price reaction.

(3) Inflation

The U.S. has ramped up the Printing Press to rapidly expand the monetary supply since 2008. OPEC has thus increased prices accordingly.

(4) China

China's surging demand has begun declining. Placated by their own property bubble, China has begun a self-induced deleverageing process. Oil demand has thus decreased in recent months. Emergence of Middle Class in China, market for automobiles roughly 17 Million annually, will continue to force oil demand shifts to the right.

(5) Venezuela

Imported oil from Venezuela has declined significantly since the Bush Administration. Largely attributed due to tension between the two regimes, Chavez has focused on reducing exports to the U.S. Why? The Coup, which Chavez believes the Bush Administration helped orchestrate in 2002.

(6) Mali Coup

The Coup that occurred in Mali was not the direct cause of surging prices, but rather led to a uncertainty in West Africa about certain regimes (Equitorial Guinea's) ability to maintain power.

(7) Speculation

These factors combine to influence speculators, who at times can drive up prices. Certain traders engage in herding behavior, whereby a speculative premium beyond the price warranted by fundamentals can result. For all of the traders that benefited on the shortterm increase to prices, Long Term Contracts are currently bearing the burden of the decline in yield.

Conclusions:

Global economic growth is stagnant. Oil demand has thus declined. The macroeconomic environment that causes surging energy prices is intricate. While the Washington Circus does impact prices paid at the Pump, the market is far more influenced by refineries, speculation, tensions and currencies. The decline of the Euro relative to the American dollar will help reduce the cost of oil in the coming months. But this is not to placate consumers to help a particular President or Party.