I am a Republican who is very excited about the possibility of America having its first minority President, and as such wish to understand Obama’s logic behind the immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq if he becomes President. So I have done some research to better understand his position and here is what I have found.

(Bringing Our Troops Home
Obama will immediately begin to remove our troops from Iraq. He will remove one to two combat brigades each month, and have all of our combat brigades out of Iraq within 16 months. Obama will make it clear that we will not build any permanent bases in Iraq. He will keep some troops in Iraq to protect our embassy and diplomats; if al Qaeda attempts to build a base within Iraq, he will keep troops in Iraq or elsewhere in the region to carry out targeted strikes on al Qaeda.)

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/

The folling is a link to a .pdf file that outlines in more detail Obama’s plan to win the War on Terror.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/pdf/IraqFactSheet.pdf

So a reduction of one to two Combat Brigades per month. So how many men are in a combat Brigade? Well it depends on the service but generaly between 3,500 to 4,000 men. So what will happen when we reduce our forces? Are the Iraqi’s to deploy every month up to 7,000 new troops of their own? If so how do they realistically do that?

Here in the U.S. over the last couple of years, we have hired a couple thousand (est, I do not know the exact numbers) Border Patrol Agents. So the most powerfull Country on Earth has hired a few thousand people in a few years, and Iraq is to hire up to 7,000 troops per month for up to 16 months? This does not seem likely. And what of the quality of Iraqi troops? Any that follow the news understand the strife within the ranks of the Iraqi Security Forces.

(Regional Diplomacy
Obama will launch the most aggressive diplomatic effort in recent American history to reach a new compact on the stability of Iraq and the Middle East. This effort will include all of Iraq’s neighbors — including Iran and Syria. This compact will aim to secure Iraq’s borders; keep neighboring countries from meddling inside Iraq; isolate al Qaeda; support reconciliation among Iraq’s sectarian groups; and provide financial support for Iraq’s reconstruction.)

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/iraq/

I do not think that the Iraqi’s will be able to step up troop strength to match our withdraw. If this is the case it will be imperative that problems among all the factions be resolved thru diplomicy. The problem I see here is that there is no guarnetee that diplomicy will be an effective tool with all the interested factions.

Obama seems to have a domino plan here. What I mean is that if one part of his overall plan hits a SNAFU, then the entire policy is held up and in big trouble. What if the Iraqi’s can’t field enough troops fast enough to keep up security for the Country? What if deplomicy fails in part or in total? These are two domino’s that if they do not fall could spell disaster for Iraq and have serious future implications for the U.S.

Just because Obama will be aggressive on diplomicy does not mean that diplomicy will be successful. I was rooting for Bill Clinton when he was very aggressively pursuing pease in the Middle East… and we all know how that turned out sadly. Just because a politician preaches diplomicy from the stump does not mean that diplomicy will work.

My Fears on Obama’s Iraq Policy.

I feel that Iraq will not be able to field troops fast enough to keep up security as we withdraw up to 7,000 troops per month. Because of this security in Iraq will fall apart and we will see renewed violence to the levels experienced a few years ago.

I think Obama’s forward leaning diplomatic stance will make headway in some key areas, but doubt it will do much to stop the violence overall. If Iraq backslides into chaos there will be such a deafening scream of protest from so many millions of Americans that Obama will not be able to ignore. He then will have two choices as I see it.

1. To continue to withdraw out troops and (*)(*)(*)(*)ed be the consequences. Then he will experience a negitive in popularity to the level of the current President.
2. He will be forced to suspend the withdrawl and put more combat troops into Iraq in an effort to regain some semblance of stability. He will then be caught in the same situation as the current President and find himseld doing the very thing as the Republicans that he opposes. Again his popularity will plummet.

I hope that if Obama becomes President that my prediction is wrong. I pray to God that he is able to bring our troops home in 16 months after taking Office, and also thru diplomicy leave Iraq and the region a safer and more secure place. If this happens it will make America safer too and Obama will go down in history as one of the greatest Presidents.

I think Liberals need to brace thenselves for a heartbreak if Obama wins. I remember Pelosi promising to end the war in Iraq and put an end to pork barrel spending, and here we are two years later… still at war and still attaching millions of dollars in pork to bills on a regular basis. Do not forget that Pelosi and the rest of Congress enjoy the same low popularity polls as the President. Just because a politician says that they will change the world does not mean that they can.

I understand your concerns with Obama's foreign policy. My one comment is that I do not feel that this administration has put enough pressure on the Iraqi government to make them prepare for our withdrawl...I feel like the Iraqi government is taking advantage of Bush's commitment to staying in Iraq for a longgggggg time.

Second, I think the energy behind Obama is about alot more than just Iraq. You're right, Pelosi could not follow through on her promises, but there was a major barrier: no clear majority in the senate, and a GOP president. With an Obama victory, and the expected Democratic victories in the fall, they will have the votes and the White House to get more done.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just think the political and voting climate will be different when Obama takes office next January.

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As of March 2008 the Iraqi security forces consisted of 531,000 men 1, with an ultimate goal of 600,000.

This is not including the Kurdish Peshmerga, who number at least 190,000 and have done much of the successful fighting of the Iraqi army.

Also, there are around 80,000 Sunni Awakening militia members whom we fund.

Previous to the war, the Iraqi army only consisted of 350,000 men. 2 3

We keep funding all these ethnically based militia, but are we really doing whats best for Iraqis?

Hi Obama 2008 and thanks for your response. I first want to say that you are an anomaly. Because it seems like 99 out of 100 Democrats or Liberals I talk to do nothing but call me every name in the book or at least act very rude. It is nice to meet someone with a differing opinion that can state it in a fair, intelligent and objective way.

I agree, but question the validity of Obama's plan. I just hope he is not another John Kerry. Kerry had a lot of plans. The problem is that I do not think many of them would have worked. Sometimes I think politicians come up with plans for the sake of having one, whether it is viable or not.

Pelosi was writing checks with her mouth that her rear-end could not cover. Anyone who really thought she would end the war is ignorant. The only way she could have, was to put a vote to the floor to cut the purse strings to Iraq. This obviously would have been political suicide to any who signed on to the Bill.

As for not having the votes? How many Democrats voted against limiting pork barrel spending? From what I understand is that is all the Democrats had voted for the Bill that it would have passed! They promised change too, and they are really no different than the Republicans were.

When we had a Republican House and Senate as well the Whitehouse were you concerned about checks and balances? How bout if it is the Democrats in charge? Would you still be concerned about checks and balances or just pray Obama and the far left force feed us all their progressive agenda?

Lucky for me I do not think it is likely that Obama will win but have a whole thread on that subject if you care to comment.

Why I think Republicans are crazy like a fox this election cycle.

It is good to meet you and look forward to debating you more.

Great question that I have no good answer for. Thanks for posting the stats, its good info. But I think back to the offensive in Basra a while back and the mass desertions of Iraqi units in the face of combat… again! Big numbers are great but if they are not an effective fighting force they are almost useless, and as a Republican I can say this is a massive Bush failure.

I think desertions are a sign that the Iraqi government is lacking legitimacy. I don't think this is helped at all by a US presence. Nor do I think it helps for the US to fund militia other than the Iraqi army without the Iraqi government asking for it.

But we decided it was most important to do anything to fight Al Qaeda. That in my opinion is something for the Iraqis to decide.

Once again good point.

Dear Robin,

I am reading this book called Imperial Life in the Emerald City, I would suggest you glance through it. My point to that was, according to that book, the administration dismanteled the Iraqi army within the first months after the occupation. The Iraqi army was very upset over this and pleded to have their jobs back. I believe that there are many Iraqis that are trained and prepared to take over the Military's shoes.

Withdrawing troops in Iraq would be a disaster and leave the door open for Iran to infiltrate the country even more. We should stay the course with and establish permanent bases and keep a foothold in the region to protect our interests along with the Iraqi civilians interests. This shows Obamas lack of leadership experience and military knowledge in regional conflicts compared to McCain in a time of war.

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